Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

So is the number of Model Y now sitting packaged outside GT still a number that Tesla would not deliver in Q1 to keep the production off the books? If not shouldn’t we see a new Y option soon? Would they cripple the range and performance on these so there is no Osborning for the short term?

The range need not be crippled. Just use less cells to make same range. The performance might be software limited. The end user might only notice the weight difference.

Also a higher more expensive version could be made.

 

[nativewolf]

There's a difference between lying and making bad predictions. It's all about what the actor know at the time. If Tesla shut down their autonomous division or is planning on shutting it down while Elon is on stage making promises about the company trying to bring autonomous driving to paying customers, then that's a lie.

If Trevor Milton said " this Nikola one will eventually run on pure hydrogen", then that is not a lie. If he says "this truck fully works and runs on pure hydrogen right now" then that's a lie.

Elon never claimed L5 is working at the time of purchase and did a rug pull once you bought it. It was always "eventually...." and then proceed to give a prediction of time frame.

it's not a "bad prediction. It is a contract. A CONTRACT. They did the same thing with the solar roofs, lawsuit abounded and they retracted. Tesla has a history of flawed behavior in this regard. They should not offer and sign contracts they can't fulfill. If they lack ability to deliver (for whatever reason) they should hold off on making promises. Similarly they should stop blaming others when they can't deliver. Nobody likes this and Tesla is burning bridges and goodwill. It's going to have an impact.

Daniels issue I believe is that his car cannot, ever, have FSD working at L4/5. Period. It just can't. The cameras are all going to have to be upgraded, the computer hardware upgraded etc etc. That's why the language on the contracts re FSD changed. They realized they had goofed. Daniel is being completely reasonable in expecting to receive something he paid for and Tesla obviously cannot deliver. Not in the last 5 years and not in the next 5. To some it doesn't matter. To others it does. The car and Daniel won't be drivable by the time Tesla figures out L4/5 FSD at the rate they are going. If he chose to sue on this issue no court would throw it out and I don't believe any jury would find in Teslas favor.

Most buyers are holding out and happy for the best autopilot in history. That's not FSD at l4/5. Daniel could have put the 4-5k into Tesla stock if he had known that the product was 10 years out. Honestly, what would that have been worth today? That's the exposure each Tesla driver prior to 2019 with FSD is holding. I bet most Tesla buyers prior to 2020 were also stock holders. ....that is actually the basis of a lucrative class action...I should call a friend.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Nice sighting at 2:25 (closer look at 9:55)

Let’s go.

All three of the vehicles that had the frunks opened appeared to be missing an interior trim piece above the storage compartment. Also, the cars appear to already be quite dusty!

 

[lafrisbee]

Funny you should ask that.

This was my forecast dated 21-08-21 when I predicted under $1000 at this point, approx $900 say. I'd have to dig a little to be more precise but really it doesn't matter.

View attachment 770445

My current working numbers, which are not yet fully updated to the level I would call a forecast, are for a fair value of approx say $1100 because this takes into account a few more quarters of reported results of good performance. Really there's not that much difference to look at, and it certainly isn't a revised forecast at this point.
View attachment 770446

If the acual market price is within 10-20% of a calculated fair value price during the corresponding period, then for a stock like Tesla that shows (me) that the market is being reasonably rational. At least within the normal market ranges for irrationality and/or macro confabulations.

These price forecasts are blended outcomes of considering PE, PR, and PEG. I am (as you can see if you look at the key) expanding the blending to include PEG(trailing) and PEG(forward).

So, yes, I have a model that put TSLA at fairly valued at these levels, and I published it a couple of times in the last half year.

(FWIW : I don't trade very often, but I did some buying a few weeks ago at the $850 level.)

you were making a funny, weren't you? I put a laughing face on it but several others gave you thumbs up and a light bulb?

 

[MC3OZ]

Not sure exactly if this is possible with the Structural pack, but if the new cells are still in scare supply, one way to maximize Austin output would be to reduce the amount of cells in the pack, which would have the dual benefit of being able to match the range of a LR out of Fremont as well as enabling more cars to be produced at Austin.

Eg Austin could produce 5 cars with 80% full packs instead of 4 cars with 100% full pack.

(to be clear I’m using hypothetical numbers above - maybe they would need 85% or 90% of cells to match range of a Fremont LR Y)

I didn't initially post the Twitter rumour on SR, the source is unknown, and higher spec trims seemed more likely.

However, the situation does remind me of the LEMR Model 3.

Existing orders are based on the Fremont Model Y range and specs, they would only need to match those to fil those existing orders..

In the unlikely event that this is say 5,000-6,000 SR/MR being made at Austin and only available in Q1. If they open orders in a week or so, no problem at all in delivering all of these by the end of quarter.

Either way I think they can start Q2 production with LR/Performance as 4680 production should be ramping.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Daniels issue I believe is that his car cannot, ever, have FSD working at L4/5. Period. It just can't.

So your position is that if a few pieces of hardware on the car will have to be upgraded, and Tesla does it for free, that the car "cannot, ever, have FSD working". That seems rather arbitrary. The only argument to really be made is that the feature wasn't provided in a timely fashion, and I don't think Tesla ever gave a deadline for when it would be delivered. That it can't be delivered without improving parts of the hardware at no charge is truly irrelevant.

Yeah, as a purchaser of FSD (twice) in 2017, I am disappointed I don't yet have even mostly functional FSD, but I don't think I was cheated. And I went and bought it again a couple of months ago. We'll see if I fare better this time.

 

[insaneoctane]

I often am sensitive to the timing of the compressed spring of TSLA....but with this macro environment, I'm nervous every morning when I open my iPad. I wish I could ignore TSLA like I've done during for other times with my portfolio, but being obsessed with all things Tesla make that difficult. Painful.

 

[PeterJA]

When non-investors in TSLA come here to tell us FSD will never work ("Period. End of story.")...
and news outlets report new government harassment investigation of Autopilot...
and members here report heavy spoofing of TSLA to keep it down and heavy buying in dark pools...
now might be a good time to remind ourselves of the impact FSD will have if/when it works.

1) It will instantly deliver, in Elon's words, the "biggest increase in asset value in history" to the Tesla fleet.

2) It will slash the value of every other car and truck on every sales lot in the world, and all 1.5 billion cars and trucks on the roads of the world.

3) It will send Tesla's share price straight to the moon.

At last reports, over 1000 Tesla data-labelers and 60,000 beta testers are refining and improving FSD every hour of every day.

Tick tick tick...

 

[JRP3]

Elon not helping matters today with a now-deleted tweet comparing Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau to Hitler.

As I said earlier even geniuses can be idiots sometimes. He continues to damage the brand he's built up, not even realizing this is counter to his mission.

 

[ZeApelido]

Just not what I need to see when I open up Twitter:

 

[Skipdd]

Letter to the court:
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.61.0.pdf

#61 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com

Basic complaint is the SEC is still sitting on the $40 million from the 2018 settlement and has not followed the court's instructions. Complaint about continued pursuit of Musk is a side point.

My sense of karma would love for the SEC to be fined an amount equivalent to TSLA gains since the penalty was paid. After all, that what shareholders would have done with the money.

Thank you for posting the links and your thoughts. I have a question and a comment.

Q: Does Tesla’s filing also give it the ability, if it chose, to ask to see the Tweets/messages of SEC staff who may be involved in overseeing Tesla’s compliance? Kind of like discovery. This would likely uncover relevant information bearing on the SEC’s intent for its actions.

C: I would like to think Tesla’s Counsel and/or their outside attorney, Mr. Spiro, would be advising Elon to tone down his tweets, especially like the type he deleted. I have been in courtrooms before; social context does matter. PM me if you want to know how I know.
Let the focus stay where it needs to - on the SEC.


I think this is germane to this thread, but if the Mods deem otherwise, I’m happy to create an SEC thread if one does not already exist.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Our companies are investing aggressively because they see enormous opportunities, says Cathie Wood

Why wallstreet portfolio managers can’t put a number in their excel sheets for the future revenues of FSD while Cathy Wood can?

 

[nativewolf]

When non-investors in TSLA come here to tell us FSD will never work ("Period. End of story.")...
and news outlets report new government harassment investigation of Autopilot...
and members here report heavy spoofing of TSLA to keep it down and heavy buying in dark pools...
now might be a good time to remind ourselves of the impact FSD will have if/when it works.

1) It will instantly deliver, in Elon's words, the "biggest increase in asset value in history" to the Tesla fleet.

2) It will slash the value of every other car and truck on every sales lot in the world, and all 1.5 billion cars and trucks on the roads of the world.

3) It will send Tesla's share price straight to the moon.

At last reports, over 1000 Tesla data-labelers and 60,000 beta testers are refining and improving FSD every hour of every day.

Tick tick tick...

I'm not saying Tesla won't deliver FSD L4/5. I'm saying it wont work on Daniels car. If you don't understand why that it is you need to understand what his car is, how far Tesla has to go to get FSD working at L2 on the improved cars today. Then understand that no redundancy exists, it will requires full new hardware and new cameras (most likely). Then understand that we are a year away from L2 at least..at least. Then several more years on L4/5 with the already discussed (by EM) hardware 3 or 4 then you'll understand why his car will never have working FSD. By the time this is all done There will be millions of Teslas in the wild, tens of millions more likely. There will be only a few thousand legacy cars with FSD licenses.

I don't see increases in asset value until L4/5. I'm from Missouri...show me then 1, 2, 3 may all come true. I'm rooting for it. I'd love to have a CT with full FSD so I can look at the forests on the way to work. Tick tick indeed. Benn ticking a while. If you had put say $5k into Tesla stock in 2018 hmm about $75k today. I'd rather have the $75k in Tesla stock, thanks very much. In fact if you put $10k in Tesla today I bet it will be worth $50k or more by the time FSD l4/5 is actually there. Actually if they get it then heck the stock would be worth $100k. Thanks, stock again.

I think Tesla has a neat approach now, there is momentum after years of sideways. It's far from actually being more than a beta L2. I don't know if you realize that the computers today are no longer offering redundancy because FSD is requiring the complete use of both computers. It's much discussed and not disputed that they need to upgrade and EM himself has discussed. A hardware upgrade will mean you'll start over. Not from scratch but all over again. This is how development is done and it is nothing to get worked up about. FSD advocates (me included) are in for a longer slog than we'd like. I like the approach but I am being realistic. Make investments on realistic expectations. Tesla is going to do wonders as a stock over the next decade. That's without FSD. That's realistic. If they get FSD before 2030 than super. You'll be wealthy. Don't margin your account counting on FSD L4/5 next year.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Just not what I need to see when I open up Twitter:

View attachment 770564

Because of you, I opened Twitter, I saw this and closed it.


Elon is going to get some Tesla Semi orders from some kind of Canadian truckers. There’s that. That’s the only positive thing I can find out about that.

 

[Singuy]

I'm not saying Tesla won't deliver FSD L4/5. I'm saying it wont work on Daniels car. If you don't understand why that it is you need to understand what his car is, how far Tesla has to go to get FSD working at L2 on the improved cars today. Then understand that no redundancy exists, it will requires full new hardware and new cameras (most likely). Then understand that we are a year away from L2 at least..at least. Then several more years on L4/5 with the already discussed (by EM) hardware 3 or 4 then you'll understand why his car will never have working FSD. By the time this is all done There will be millions of Teslas in the wild, tens of millions more likely. There will be only a few thousand legacy cars with FSD licenses.

I don't see increases in asset value until L4/5. I'm from Missouri...show me then 1, 2, 3 may all come true. I'm rooting for it. I'd love to have a CT with full FSD so I can look at the forests on the way to work. Tick tick indeed. Benn ticking a while. If you had put say $5k into Tesla stock in 2018 hmm about $75k today. I'd rather have the $75k in Tesla stock, thanks very much. In fact if you put $10k in Tesla today I bet it will be worth $50k or more by the time FSD l4/5 is actually there. Actually if they get it then heck the stock would be worth $100k. Thanks, stock again.

I think Tesla has a neat approach now, there is momentum after years of sideways. It's far from actually being more than a beta L2. I don't know if you realize that the computers today are no longer offering redundancy because FSD is requiring the complete use of both computers. It's much discussed and not disputed that they need to upgrade and EM himself has discussed. A hardware upgrade will mean you'll start over. Not from scratch but all over again. This is how development is done and it is nothing to get worked up about. FSD advocates (me included) are in for a longer slog than we'd like. I like the approach but I am being realistic. Make investments on realistic expectations. Tesla is going to do wonders as a stock over the next decade. That's without FSD. That's realistic. If they get FSD before 2030 than super. You'll be wealthy. Don't margin your account counting on FSD L4/5 next year.

Using hindsight to make an argument on where you should have parked your money is weird. I wish I didn't listen to Elon's hype by buying Tesla stock but purchased last week's lotto numbers instead. I should lawyer up and sue the guy.

 

[dhanson865]

Nice sighting at 2:25 (closer look at 9:55)

Let’s go.

I wonder why they are pushing the cars around. Are they using manpower and the car in neutral just to avoid running up the odometer?

note: for anyone that didn't watch the video the car drove across the parking lot part way with 1 or 2 people inside, then when it got to a certain spot 4 or so people walked up and pushed it around the parking lot to the spot they wanted it to be. Happens around 10:50 to 11:50 as they reposition multiple vehicles.

I supose the car could be on and they are just guiding, but it sure looks like some of those people are trying hard to push.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I wonder why they are pushing the cars around. Are they using manpower and the car in neutral just to avoid running up the odometer?

Maybe they're missing a part/s. That might explain the open frunks and missing trim piece.

 

[dhanson865]

Maybe they're missing a part/s. That might explain the open frunks and missing trim piece.

The car is drivable, so maybe missing the proximity sensors for parking them really close together without spotters?

 

[Ogre]

Because he announced it when Tesla was 40 bucks and he said it would take a year. 6 years later Tesla is 20x that and no L4/5 FSD is in sight and the hardware to support it has not even been developed to install in a car. The current hardware can't support the FSD that Cathy assumes (L5 robotaxi sort of capability). Most likely it requires more cameras too. They're trying to avoid this but ..meh. I think they'll cave and do it. All of which is going to means years of development work between now and then. The worlds best L2, sure...you'll have that by end of year or sometime next year or at worst in 2024. L4/5...that is going to be years more away.

I think you are looking at this all wrong.

Robotaxi, Optimus, heck Energy.

These things aren’t priced into the stock. They are way too conceptual for Wall Street to care about. Tesla is valued based on their auto business and nothing else. Between their cost structure, high operation leverage, and push to reduce battery costs, just executing on that, Tesla “Auto Only” is a decent stock. Maybe not “Best Stock Ever” but it will have good returns.

Robotaxi, Optimus, and Energy. These are options. Bonus value if you will.

If they hit the mark on any of those, then Tesla‘s value more than doubles. That is what is awesome about this company. We have a fantastic stock… with the potential for lopsided upside. Most of the risk is drained out. “Worst Case” is merely decent returns.

 

[WADan]

I'm sitting here wondering how I can obtain a small loan of a million dollars to buy more TSLA. Even given my views of corruption and manipulation, I am surprised to see TSLA this cheap. Perhaps my model is way off in valuation... or this is an amazing sale on cheap shares.

Does anyone have a model that puts TSLA fairly priced at this level at this time?

I don’t recommend selling your house or getting a second mortgage!