Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I would prefer that Elon doesn't post at least 30% of the stuff he does on Twitter

Chance of Departure: 80 percent... /s

Cheers!

 

[heltok]

So much noise the last few weeks. Just remember that we had the same level of noise back in 2012-2019 and what happened with from all that noise? Nothing…

 

[Ogre]

This explains the post-ER dip a lot better than SI being up 0.5% of daily volume on average.

Street folks listening to the call wanting to hear about new products, and how Tesla is gonna get to 3 million+ cars a year....and Elon only talking robots and FSD- which they either don't believe or don't understand (or both)

It wasn’t just the Street folks. A bunch of people here on TMC were making the same comments.

 

[Boomer19]

it's not a "bad prediction. It is a contract. A CONTRACT. They did the same thing with the solar roofs, lawsuit abounded and they retracted. Tesla has a history of flawed behavior in this regard. They should not offer and sign contracts they can't fulfill. If they lack ability to deliver (for whatever reason) they should hold off on making promises. Similarly they should stop blaming others when they can't deliver. Nobody likes this and Tesla is burning bridges and goodwill. It's going to have an impact.

Daniels issue I believe is that his car cannot, ever, have FSD working at L4/5. Period. It just can't. The cameras are all going to have to be upgraded, the computer hardware upgraded etc etc. That's why the language on the contracts re FSD changed. They realized they had goofed. Daniel is being completely reasonable in expecting to receive something he paid for and Tesla obviously cannot deliver. Not in the last 5 years and not in the next 5. To some it doesn't matter. To others it does. The car and Daniel won't be drivable by the time Tesla figures out L4/5 FSD at the rate they are going. If he chose to sue on this issue no court would throw it out and I don't believe any jury would find in Teslas favor.

Most buyers are holding out and happy for the best autopilot in history. That's not FSD at l4/5. Daniel could have put the 4-5k into Tesla stock if he had known that the product was 10 years out. Honestly, what would that have been worth today? That's the exposure each Tesla driver prior to 2019 with FSD is holding. I bet most Tesla buyers prior to 2020 were also stock holders. ....that is actually the basis of a lucrative class action...I should call a friend.

i get where you’re coming from. if i was daniel maybe i’d be miffed.

many other companies would anger me more though.

and…if we zoom way out, that’s nothing compared to the pillaging big business has done to earth and it’s inhabitants for the last 100+ years…or (some) tech in the last 15 even??

instead, how about we all accept elon isn’t perfect. tesla isn’t perfect. that’s a start. i’ll take that.

when we witness elon stroking a diamond collared white cat on his lap (sorry @Krugerrand , but i didn’t write those scripts) speaking with a villain accent …i’ll think about dumping my shares i guess. he hasn’t jumped the blofeld shark yet. anything’s possible. but there’s a few other bad outcomes with higher probability.

we, here, generally need to kick the tires to make sure we aren’t full on jim jones punch, i get it. it’s healthy.

but to make it anything beyond that, in the grand scheme, and at this point, is kinda silly.

 

[dhanson865]

Cars car be upgraded. Tesla is legally obliged to make these cars work with “FSD”. If that means they have to upgrade the camera systems and computer, they will do it. They have already committed to upgrading cameras on some older cars. It seems like H3 with the current cameras will work, but if they won’t Tesla will upgrade the car.

PS: If you think this is untrue PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHY rather than just a cowardly downvote a DM is fine if you’d rather not discuss it in public. I’d vastly prefer to be corrected than pass on mis-information.

He lied to me when Tesla told me that my car had all the necessary hardware to operate as a robotaxi or be summoned, empty, from one coast to the other. And there are whole threads here about his long string of broken promises regarding FSD, promises he has to have known could not be met, yet he still keeps making them.

Daniel what year did you purchase your car? Was it totaled in a collision, traded in, or sold? Or is it possible we are just talking about the number of years in the past and Tesla can't time travel to make you whole?

Ogre, I think your statements are untrue because you assume 100% of the people that bought a Tesla with FSD still have that tesla. Even if that isn't the issue for Daniel there are people that have had collisions or upgraded to a newer Tesla and paid for FSD more than once.

For those lovely people that paid for FSD, upgraded to a newer Tesla and paid for FSD again there is no way Tesla can go back and upgrade a car they don't have anymore. The damage was done and fixed in time, you can't change history.

 

[thesmokingman]

You guys, the newest South Park episode mentions Tesla over 200 times! Remind me again why they need to pay for advertising again? Available on HBO max if interested.

Which is the best reference? World War Zimmerman? I need to finish watching the lastest ep, Chitty People.

"Oh wait, is this a Tesla? *sugar* step on the pissy pedal..."

 

[Ogre]

Daniel what year did you purchase your car? Was it totaled in a collision, traded in, or sold? Or is it possible we are just talking about the number of years in the past and Tesla can't time travel to make you whole?

Ogre, I think your statements are untrue because you assume 100% of the people that bought a Tesla with FSD still have that tesla. Even if that isn't the issue for Daniel there are people that have had collisions or upgraded to a newer Tesla and paid for FSD more than once.

For those lovely people that paid for FSD, upgraded to a newer Tesla and paid for FSD again there is no way Tesla can go back and upgrade a car they don't have anymore. The damage was done and fixed in time, you can't change history.

Thank you!

You are correct. There are definitely some people who got screwed if they thought FSD was imminent and leased or otherwise lost their car. I was just considering people who kept their car.

 

[Boomer19]

i get where you’re coming from. if i was daniel maybe i’d be miffed.

many other companies would anger me more though.

and…if we zoom way out, that’s nothing compared to the pillaging big business has done to earth and it’s inhabitants for the last 100+ years…or (some) tech in the last 15 even??

instead, how about we all accept elon isn’t perfect. tesla isn’t perfect. that’s a start. i’ll take that.

when we witness elon stroking a diamond collared white cat on his lap (sorry @Krugerrand , but i didn’t write those scripts) speaking with a villain accent …i’ll think about dumping my shares i guess. he hasn’t jumped the blofeld shark yet. anything’s possible. but there’s a few other bad outcomes with higher probability.

we, here, generally need to kick the tires to make sure we aren’t full on jim jones punch, i get it. it’s healthy.

but to make it anything beyond that, in the grand scheme, and at this point, is kinda silly.

that said, how can anyone in thier right mind be remotely pissed at anything tesla or elon right now?

the market is garbage, the establishment is culpable, and tsla is supremely undervalued. if tsla was at 1250 right now, NOBODY would be bitching about their ‘sunk’ FSD cost. they’d be ordering a Plaid.

gimme a freakin’ break!

sorry to be the bearer of truth…but sell the car and the stock and let me know when you find a better alternative to both! thanks in advance!

 

[Paul_SF]

that said, how can anyone in thier right mind be remotely pissed at anything tesla or elon right now?

the market is garbage, the establishment is culpable, and tsla is supremely undervalued. if tsla was at 1250 right now, NOBODY would be bitching about their ‘sunk’ FSD cost. they’d be ordering a Plaid.

gimme a freakin’ break!

sorry to be the bearer of truth…but sell the car and the stock and let me know when you find a better alternative to both! thanks in advance!

Ok Boomer,19, why don’t you let them whine? You know that’s a sign we are about to reach the bottom and spring to ATH!!!

Come on guys, please, keep on whining!!!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Not funny. I want a green Tesla.

I had a green model S and I loved that color

 

[dhanson865]

for the visual thinkers that haven't wrapped their heads around the inflation news yet.

Sound warning, turn your speakers down or off. Follow the link to the reddit post, I couldn't find a way to embed it in the post here without it autoplaying and I hated the audio starting out loud every time I refreshed the page.

/dataisbeautiful/comments/suqj9n/oc_us_wages_are_now_falling_in_real_terms/

 

[Paul_SF]

for the visual thinkers that haven't wrapped their heads around the inflation news yet.

Sound warning, turn your speakers down or off. Follow the link to the reddit post, I couldn't find a way to embed it in the post here without it autoplaying and I hated the audio starting out loud every time I refreshed the page.

/dataisbeautiful/comments/suqj9n/oc_us_wages_are_now_falling_in_real_terms/

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494080868796841986

 

[insaneoctane]

Being invested in Tesla over the years, I've always known creation of a brand new car company was risky. I bet far too little. Elon, per this tweet had to overcome all of it including the psychological warfare. Now there are new companies willing to try this feat again (Rivian, Lucid,etc), but they have the luxury of seeing not only that it can be done, but how it was done and the struggles. Even with that advantage, I can't bet on them- too risky for me. I'm so impressed with the strength Musk has shown getting us here and the future Tesla now has.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494065800482902030

 

[adiggs]

I like reading about folks here who think that Tesla's brand is immune to how the wider population perceives Elon. I suspect that it is true that the majority of people don't engage in the noise of social media. But I worry.

I personally find I have to more and more couch my (endless) Tesla promotion as 'Yes Elon is unhinged at times but the cars are great.' I hate that. If you listen to any long form interview with him his humanity comes through in spades but on twitter...oh boy. As a shareholder and Canadian I would prefer he not comment on our politics (even if I agreed with it). I would be shocked if he had the bandwidth to understand the nuance of what was happening up here so he could tweet an informed thought. Today's tweet was absurd.

My current thesis (which affects my investment thesis) is, he does pay significant attention to the FUD and people trying to bring him down. And he reacts. I worry those reactions are not helping his his causes. Reading just a little of Twiiter comments will derange anyone. As we have all said you get the whole package of Elon but the Elon of 2015 is not the Elon of 2022 and I think the negativity is getting to him. We shall see. I actually think this is not off topic.

Here's an idea that might help.

When I'm talking to people and they're telling me all the way that they can't invest in Tesla because Elon (does this, does that, unhinged, ...), I tell them that Elon is a package deal. You can't break it up. He is what he is, and that includes Tweets that will make you cringe, and apparent foot in mouth disease that he can't shake.

You also get somebody with a funny sense of time - he makes short term predictions that almost never come true, that lead to long term capabilities that are unthinkable and generally considered undoable. I call it Elon Time.

And he does the undoable over, and over, and over again. He is (my humble opinion) the human being on the planet doing the most for climate change. I grant others may arise in conversation and might even push him down to top 10. The point is he's moving the needle on climate change to the degree that anyone is, rather than talking about it and telling people what they ought to do.


I like the package and I invest in it, knowing that I'll get some bogus short term predictions, as well saying stuff that'll piss a lot of people off aka foot-in-mouth-disease. If you don't like the package then don't invest in Elon.

You might evaluate Tesla as a business on its own, apply an Elon discount (rather than the bonus I apply), and see if that company is worth investing in. It could happen.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Tesla preparing for robotaxis? Could be nothing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494439825432199186

I believe this to be a mischaracterization, as I was offered (I believe) the same program as well.

It's essentially a lease program, with the payment for the car coming out of your earnings, Uber was bombarding me with messages about it, and I'm a highly rated driver with 5000+ trips. The way they operate I really, REALLY doubt they'd foot the bill for a driver, they are very good at burying details in fine print though. It's part of their effort to greenwash their service, which has drivers driving around a lot "looking" for rides as their algorithms seem to prefer cars in motion. I have 5+ years and the impressions of other drivers to back this up. Not to mention trying to tempt people away from public transportation. Ultimately rideshare companies have contributed to urban congestion and pollution, not lessened it.

 

[Papafox]

I am contemplating adding more jan24 leaps. I am trying to determine if IV has subsided enough to make them even more of a steal. Does anyone know what Papafox reports on his daily post? Specifically, what is the 52.6 and 39%? Thanks!@


Conditions:

* IV 52.6, 39%
* Max Pain 925
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 46%

The 30 day IV numbers I publish each day originate at Marketchameleon.com . Here is how they describe the Feb 17 numbers I will publish within an hour:

TSLA implied volatility (IV) is 59.3, which is in the 58% percentile rank. This means that 58% of the time the IV was lower in the last year than the current level. The current IV (59.3) is -6.4% below its 20 day moving average (63.4) indicating implied volatility is trending lower.

A more complete reference is available at the source page, Market Chameleon

 

[Ocelot]

Is anyone still concerned about the impact on the Tesla brand of what Elon tweets? I thought we already lost every potential customer after tweets about pedo guy, unions, Bernie, corona, California, Texas abortion laws, Canadian truckers and a dozen other controversial standpoints.

I for one am still concerned. Elon represents Tesla, I put my money into Tesla, both by buying their vehicles, and their stock, as a vote for hopefully a better world. Often his tweets push against my idealism.

Apparently, we have a lot of slow learners here.
Either that or they think being a "care bear" is something to aspire to. Maybe they believe becoming wealthy is evil.

Slow learners, Care Bears, or maybe just humans? Sorry to clarify, humans who don’t think Elon is infallible. Or maybe radix malorum est cupiditas?

 

[WarpedOne]

Whining about Elon on etc forums helps how exactly?
Will he change?

Instead of whining, you should simply decide are you still on board or not.
That will help.
Help you and your 'public' who must read your whines and comfort your pains.

Humans? No, just old infants.

 

[Ocelot]

Well just helping you along your path to wisdom , via suffering.
Infants are humans. One relates to age, ( one month to one year) the other a biological classification.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros nicely green in the pre-Market. Here's one possible reason:

Yen eases but up for week as investors stay worried over Ukraine tensions

The safe-haven Japanese yen fell slightly against the dollar on Friday, pulling back after recent gains, but was up for the week as a series of developments in the Ukraine-Russia crisis put investors on edge.

www.reuters.com

4:46 AM EST
TSLA $887.31 +10.96 (+1.25%)
Volume 40,880