The wild card is the BYD LFP blade cells, which have the potential to be used in structural packs. It will be interesting to see how Tesla uses these if the rumors are true about the order.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I still want my SR AWD option, they keep upping the range on all the packs and I have no reason to buy a LR pack unless that's the only way to buy AWD.
I want that blue line to come back and the red line to be replaced by the SR AWD.
If they have a huge gap in price between SR RWD and LR AWD I might cheap out. If they space them out evenly with a MR AWD or SR AWD I'll bump it up in spec when I buy.
Extra range has zero value for me. It's replacing an EV that gets less than 90 miles a charge now. Doesn't matter to me if the SR does 250 or 275 or 300.
This was one of the best talks about the state of FSD:
Cliffs:
* It’s really complicated to analyze FSD, getting a one good metric for how good FSD is is impossible. You need to drive it a lot to get an intuition which is hard to quantify.
* Media sucks, CNBC is basically anti-signal and you do better not listening to them. Follow up question is how much other bad information you have gotten regarding other topics. Avoid news that simplify important and complex questions.
* Highway miles vs city miles is really complex and rural highway miles have more accidents than city miles, but then again they are driven less. It’s hard to use that as a metric
* When you debate a topic you become biased, so it’s dangerous to try to debate skeptics and trolls.
* US regulators are pretty fair, rest of world is generally more conservative. Tesla has an advantage in being a US company.
* When Tesla activated Autopilot the first time they had clean data for the first time, same drivers/cars before Autopilot vs after Autopilot.
* The falsifiable question is not when FSD will be ready, it’s when will FSD be available to drivers without requiring the driver to have a safety score. Will it be this year?
* Book recommendation: Superforecasting
* Good question to write down before you invest: What would need to happen for me to have been wrong about my investment thesis? For example if Tesla sell less than 2M vehicles in 2023 I was wrong.
Cliffs:
* It’s really complicated to analyze FSD, getting a one good metric for how good FSD is is impossible. You need to drive it a lot to get an intuition which is hard to quantify.
* Media sucks, CNBC is basically anti-signal and you do better not listening to them. Follow up question is how much other bad information you have gotten regarding other topics. Avoid news that simplify important and complex questions.
* Highway miles vs city miles is really complex and rural highway miles have more accidents than city miles, but then again they are driven less. It’s hard to use that as a metric
* When you debate a topic you become biased, so it’s dangerous to try to debate skeptics and trolls.
* US regulators are pretty fair, rest of world is generally more conservative. Tesla has an advantage in being a US company.
* When Tesla activated Autopilot the first time they had clean data for the first time, same drivers/cars before Autopilot vs after Autopilot.
* The falsifiable question is not when FSD will be ready, it’s when will FSD be available to drivers without requiring the driver to have a safety score. Will it be this year?
* Book recommendation: Superforecasting
* Good question to write down before you invest: What would need to happen for me to have been wrong about my investment thesis? For example if Tesla sell less than 2M vehicles in 2023 I was wrong.
I went back and looked at the 2020 battery day presentation.
It is really an amazing "top secret" road map across multiple parts of Tesla. Not just batteries, but castings, Cybertruck, Semi, $25k car, ...
Looking at it now, less than 18 months later, it is pretty incredible to see how much has been accomplished.
It is really an amazing "top secret" road map across multiple parts of Tesla. Not just batteries, but castings, Cybertruck, Semi, $25k car, ...
Looking at it now, less than 18 months later, it is pretty incredible to see how much has been accomplished.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
How long has MSM been a "free" color? I haven't seen it posted before...
Also I had no idea, but apparently futures pertains to the trading of commodities. It's not clear exactly when people started using futures as some kind of surrogate or prediction system for the stock market but that's not even what they are for or represent.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well that's certainly the way the Chicago Board of Exchange started business, but there is in fact a specific futures contract for the NASDAQ-100 called the NQ=F which currently expires on March 22, 2022 (then they'll start trading contracts which expire on a later date)
Nasdaq 100 Jun 24 (NQ=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Find the latest Nasdaq 100 Jun 24 (NQ=F) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
finance.yahoo.com
Cheers!
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Not the situation on the danish Tesla site. White is still the free option.
Mentioning the reason why the futures have gone up - a positive development on the diplomatic front in the Russia-Ukraine situation - is no problem at all and will definitely not lead to a ban. Why? Because a big move in the futures is relevant to TSLA, and therefore also the reason for that move.
The problematic posts are the ones that usually follow:
- "We’ve seen this before, Putin cannot be trusted.”
- “I understand why Putin thinks Ukraine should fall under Russian influence. They share historical ties, which go back to 1373, when Pjotr…”
- “Ukraine also has links to the west and should be allowed to join NATO and the EU to protect it from the dictator that resides in the Kremlin.”
- “The EU cannot handle the membership of a corrupt nation like Ukraine, which is a bottomless pit for any economic aid.”
- “The EU is a failed experiment, where bureaucrats rule. The British left for a reason and you can see how Switzerland and Norway are thriving.”
- “Brexit has proven to be a disaster for the British economy. There's a huge shortage of truck drivers after the East Europeans went back home.”
- "Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera."
Usually the relevance to Tesla/TSLA quickly goes down to zero. We’ve seen this kind of derailing so often now, despite of many warnings, that higher up the mod ladder it has been decided that it needs to stop. I agree.
Possible Giga Tesla in Hungary. More than € 6 billion in investment, who has that much money? Official announcement until April 3.
www.portfolio.hu
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Debrecenben valósulhat meg az Orbán Viktor által bejelentett történelmi beruházás
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Szijjártó Péter külügyminiszter január végén épp az Orbán Viktor által ma bejelentett gigantikus beruházást lengette be a HAON-nak adott interjújában, mely alapján a 6 milliárd eurót meghaladó beruházás Debrecen térségében valósulhat meg.
www.portfolio.hu
That is true, but also the data in Tesla financings (ABS, the only thing they consistently do) Tesla loans and leases have the highest credit quality in the US industry, followed by Mercedes Benz. At this credit quality repossessions are vanishingly rare. The captives that have had financial problems are rare also, but those invariably are deep subprime with lax deal standards which usually permit financing well above the typical retail price, so allowing dealer ability to add worthless options, ‘additional dealer margin, weird ‘insurance’ options, etc.
Tesla paper has NONE of that, further enhancing credit quality.
FWIW, that does not always make Tesla the cheapest lender or best lessor, but it is never extortionate which almost all the others can be.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Possible Giga Tesla in Hungary. More than € 6 billion in investment, who has that much money? Official announcement until April 3.
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Debrecenben valósulhat meg az Orbán Viktor által bejelentett történelmi beruházás
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Szijjártó Péter külügyminiszter január végén épp az Orbán Viktor által ma bejelentett gigantikus beruházást lengette be a HAON-nak adott interjújában, mely alapján a 6 milliárd eurót meghaladó beruházás Debrecen térségében valósulhat meg.
Unlikely for Tesla to invest in factory in Hungary, in my opinion. "South Korean company EcoPro" more likely. Article uses Euros and Hungarian Forints (roughly 350 Forints/Euro). Milliárd means billion (million would be "millió forint"). So SKI is at a bit less than 2 billion euros. Shows how good Tesla is at spending money.
Raising the following story simply because it would affect investment decisions/subsidies and more as EU can withhold financial support if rule of law is in jeopardy as EU contends it is in Poland, Hungary, perhaps more - Poland, Hungary lose legal challenge against EU rule-of-law tool
petit_bateau
Active Member
There is an election coming up in Hungary on 3 April. That is why these sorts of stories are being run, to talk up things for the incumbent Orban. Personally I cannot see any reason why Tesla would contemplate a second European factory decision for at least 2-3 years.Possible Giga Tesla in Hungary. More than € 6 billion in investment, who has that much money? Official announcement until April 3.
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Debrecenben valósulhat meg az Orbán Viktor által bejelentett történelmi beruházás
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Szijjártó Péter külügyminiszter január végén épp az Orbán Viktor által ma bejelentett gigantikus beruházást lengette be a HAON-nak adott interjújában, mely alapján a 6 milliárd eurót meghaladó beruházás Debrecen térségében valósulhat meg.
As Orban runs for re-election, Hungary’s opposition fears fraud
They have some reason to
I doubt Elon would entertain dealing with Viktor Orban. Many better options in Eastern Europe, including Romania and Slovakia. Also Estonia up there at the Baltic Sea has been gunning for Tesla a while now and they are one of the most economically developed and educated nations in Eastern Europe.Possible Giga Tesla in Hungary. More than € 6 billion in investment, who has that much money? Official announcement until April 3.
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Debrecenben valósulhat meg az Orbán Viktor által bejelentett történelmi beruházás
ElképzelhetÅ, hogy Szijjártó Péter külügyminiszter január végén épp az Orbán Viktor által ma bejelentett gigantikus beruházást lengette be a HAON-nak adott interjújában, mely alapján a 6 milliárd eurót meghaladó beruházás Debrecen térségében valósulhat meg.
After translating and reading this I was at first thinking it was about EcoPro also. But the article (or the translation) is a bit unclear IMHO. Another article linked makes me believe that EcoPro is a done deal (third place in investment value up to now) but the new project will be much larger and should be announced before the elections (April 3):
Szép csendben Orbán Viktor belengette a valaha volt legnagyobb beruházást
A külföldi cégek beruházásaiért nagy a verseny és az a jó, ha minél magasabb technológiai szÃnvonalú beruházások érkeznek Magyarországra - fogalmazott Orbán Viktor szombati beszédében és - ugyan egyelÅre részletek nélkül - bejelentette Magyarország történetének...
www-portfolio-hu.translate.goog
FWIW close analogies are possibly beginning to be popular. Geely now have done that with Volvo and are now doing it with Polestar. Both are explicitly to raise money to advance the transition to pure EV production. Considering the huge capex needed to accomplish that this is a logical step for them, in my opinion.
Tesla is unique as the only OEM to have both huge free cash flow and an entirely EV+renewables business model. Despite a massive growth rate they need no capital injections. Over and over we discuss this amazing reality. Understandably the broader world cannot imagine how this can happen. The relentless pursuit of reduced: 1) production cost, 2) distribution cost, 3) service and warranty cost simply is not conceivable to most legacy OEM manufacturers and their support structure. Above all, apart from Ferrari nobody else has a cash conversion cycle that resembles magic.
So, the legacy makers with some brains are quite aware that they really cannot pull of this transition with business as usual, although they still try. In a bizarre was it is reminiscent of a slightly paraphrased quotation ascribed to the late H. Milk "We know we cannot do it, but that does not keep us from trying". It is exactly that which makes the more thoughtful people try to separate EVs from their other businesses.
That it is Geely, Harley Davidson that can do that is part of the virtue of smaller size and close control.
Little by little other niche solutions are happening, notably the unusual ceding of Bugatti with Rimac;
Rimac CEO on Porsche-Bugatti Deal: ‘I Am Not Somebody to Play It Safe’
At the brink of massive responsibility, Mate Rimac talks taking risks and coming from behind.
www.bloomberg.com
So, yes, "completely different thing". 2022 will continue to be a very interesting year.
I disagree only because we know that cell to pack is already being done by CATL with prismatic and BYD with Blade. There si no inherent reason that Tesla would adopt cylindrical 4680 in preference to those, especially when Cybertruck, Semi, Model Y, more Model Y and others can and will use high nickel for Performance and other such applications. Battery day showed us.
Obviously they might produce any new chemistry in 4680 form factor. High volume, though, does not give evidence of that.
Estonia also has a plentiful supply of clever application development people and a very technology-savvy resource base. They can easily access Helsinki resources from there also. IIRC, the very first Tesla rental in Europe was from:
We also have a very business-friendly and technologically forward thinking economic environment, and the world's best PISA science scores which promise a highly skilled future workforce.Estonia also has a plentiful supply of clever application development people and a very technology-savvy resource base. They can easily access Helsinki resources from there also. IIRC, the very first Tesla rental in Europe was from:
There are quite a few excellent options in Eastern Europe. Few are so well placed to service the Saint Petersburg area, Moscow Tesla Club and their customers as would be Estonia, whenever the current crises will abate. This may not be the ideal time to make that point.
I just wish Tesla hadn't stopped its EU expansion just shy of the Baltics, we really need official Tesla representation here to help us move towards vehicle electrification, which is sadly lagging here. Even though VW made a big push here with their ID models last year, the Model 3 was still the most popular electric car. Only a few dozen in total, but it shows that the market is hungry for them here if only it were easier to get them.
Below are 2021 stats for electric vehicles and all combined in Estonia.
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