Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Over 20m in volume. Looks like some institutions are increasing positions at today's prices

Scare retailers into selling, scoop up cheap shares in quality companies.

Mission accomplished for "smart money".

 

[Singuy]

The time to purchase a Tesla is when the gas prices are low. Purchasing when the prices are high puts you in line with thousands of other people who don't see further then the end of their nose. (Note: not saying that you are in that group because often finances dictate when you can purchase--even if the timing is not ideal.)

It's safe to say that the time to purchase a Tesla was 2020.

 

[mars_or_bust]

I wonder if Germany understands what just happened over the past week. News that future Giga Berlin expansion is halted indefinitely and now news breaks that Tesla is starting on a second gigafactory in China next month.

You done blew your chance Germany. Tesla already setting in plans to mitigate Berlin. I think the two pieces of news are clearly tied together and are a direct response to the GigaBerlin mess

Yes, your are most likely correct. And this is just the start: all the big companies in the world with ambitions to expand to Germany are having second thoughts now.

No serious company wants to get ensnared in the German bureaucracy, whose moto is "hey, you should be happy, it usually takes 4 years to process your papers". They don't realize they are competing with China, and not among themselves.

I know Intel planned to build a foundry in Germany. I wonder if they are having second thoughts....

 

[CHGolferJim]

To the long time Investors here who have more experience than I do. How do you determine you have seen Capitulation? When everyone who had to sell was forced to sell because of margin calls? When will wallstreet hedge funds think they have to lowest buying point and have grabbed all the shares from the retails at the lowest buying price?

Is there another way to determine capitulation on the chart than 2 massive down red days with everyone on Twitter saying they have sold because TSLA is going back to 400s?

I see a massive buying opportunity here if I had spare change, hedge fund managers must see the same thing I do?

How do they determinate we have reached capitulation day and tomorrow is massive buying day?

Typically, it’s only noticed in hindsight, AFAIK.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if Germany understands what just happened over the past week. News that future Giga Berlin expansion is halted indefinitely and now news breaks that Tesla is starting on a second gigafactory in China next month.

You done blew your chance Germany. Tesla already setting in plans to mitigate Berlin. I think the two pieces of news are clearly tied together and are a direct response to the GigaBerlin mess

Tesla planning new Shanghai plant as soon as next month to double its China capacity: report

Tesla planning new Shanghai plant as soon as next month to double its China capacity: report

It appears that Tesla might have already decided on the location of its next big factory. Based on recent reports, it appears that Tesla may be looking to build another vehicle production facility in Shanghai — and it could be starting sooner than expected. Citing individuals familiar with the...

www.teslarati.com

"Amidst the delays in projects such as Giga Berlin, the quick progress of facilities like Giga Shanghai and Giga Texas are all but highlighted.​

​

During Tesla’s 2021 Annual Shareholders Meeting, for example, Musk confirmed that Gigafactory Shanghai already exceeds the Fremont Factory in production.​

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Musk also noted that he appreciated the fact that Tesla China’s team has shown great results with very little drama.​

​

“Actually, I’d just like to give a special hand to the Tesla China team. So it’s the best quality, lowest cost, and also low drama. So it’s great,” Musk said. "​

 

[lafrisbee]

Well, in China if you spot a bat at the site, you don't stop working in case you wake it up, you just eat it. A much more business friendly arrangement.

Screenshot I captured from youtube Shanghai drone footage

'The Dark Knight Rises' food truck!

'The Dark Knight Rises' food truck!

ew.com

 

[GOVA]

Interesting fact: A few months ago, this very forum was FULL of posts that Tesla should build Giga in Russia.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not to rain on the optimism parade but that assumes the past trend of high Tesla EV demand continues. There's a lot of other stuff going on in the world that could change things like increased EV competition, inflation, rising of interest rates, loss of stock market wealth effect, reduced value of employee stock options, eventual evening out or all out collapse of an inflated housing market, paying off government debt, the Fed bond buying, Ukraine war aid, isolation of the global markets (Russia, China is next), rising oil and natgas prices, ...

I would be surprise if Tesla's EV waitlist (demand) didn't significantly soften this year.

Oh! I think that’s close enough to buy. Can someone confirm that for me.

Edit: Nevermind, @Artful Dodger already confirmed. Sweet baby Jesus, I’m about to get even richer.

 

[elasalle]

I wonder if Germany understands what just happened over the past week. News that future Giga Berlin expansion is halted indefinitely and now news breaks that Tesla is starting on a second gigafactory in China next month.

You done blew your chance Germany. Tesla already setting in plans to mitigate Berlin. I think the two pieces of news are clearly tied together and are a direct response to the GigaBerlin mess

At what point does EM say screw it, and says another GF in EU ...

.. the tortoise is blocking the hare

 

[2daMoon]

Any one else have "Pop Goes the Weasel" on auto-play in their head while awaiting the Big Boing?

Da-dun, da-dun, da dun di dun dun...

Note: Considering the volume, and the onging stagnation, this may prove to be a wonderful opportunity for gathering evidence of spoofing and other manipulative tactics.

 

[Krugerrand]

Join the club. I did that yesterday. I now hold TSLA and one share of my original first hand-picked stock. Which is currently trading at fifteen and a half cents...
So 99.99996756% of my entire "portfolio." Does anyone have a higher number? Most of you have me beat in Dollars. But if we are talking about skin in the game, I've got everything but a hangnail riding in a tesla.
EDIT: I was bragging about that .155 share price. I bought it for .07.

Lightweight.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Too soon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any one else have "Pop Goes the Weasel" on auto-play in their head while awaiting the Big Boing?

Da-dun, da-dun, da dun di dun dun...

Note: Considering the volume, and the onging stagnation, this may prove to be a wonderful opportunity for gathering evidence of spoofing and other manipulative tactics.

MODS, what is the current policy against earworms? /s

Cheers!

 

[nativewolf]

At what point does EM say screw it, and says another GF in EU ...

.. the tortoise is blocking the hare

I disagree because as was described very well yesterday...it's not the german govt that is really the issue.

 

[Mengy]

At what point does EM say screw it, and says another GF in EU ...

.. the tortoise is blocking the hare

With Tesla's cash and income they certainly can afford to ditch Berlin and simply build elsewhere to replace it. I do not think Tesla is afraid of writing off sunk costs and learning hard lessons with very quick corrective decision making. Even with something as large as a Giga Factory if need be.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Join the club. I did that yesterday. I now hold TSLA and one share of my original first hand-picked stock. Which is currently trading at fifteen and a half cents...
So 99.99996756% of my entire "portfolio." Does anyone have a higher number? Most of you have me beat in Dollars. But if we are talking about skin in the game, I've got everything but a hangnail riding in a tesla.
EDIT: I was bragging about that .155 share price. I bought it for .07.

Here,
100% TSLA. Bought 100 extra shares at 765.
Liquidated all my other holdings, cleared all my puts and calls. Back to holding TSLA for 30 years.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I wonder if Germany understands what just happened over the past week. News that future Giga Berlin expansion is halted indefinitely and now news breaks that Tesla is starting on a second gigafactory in China next month.

You done blew your chance Germany. Tesla already setting in plans to mitigate Berlin. I think the two pieces of news are clearly tied together and are a direct response to the GigaBerlin mess

And if for whatever reason Berlin is slow to ramp, Tesla can flood Europe with spare output from TWO Gigas.

 

[AudubonB]

There have been a few responses to your questions, some quite reasonable. Overall the tendency of investors is to overreact to either good or bad news, and react to rumors too.

There is no way to know if Captilualtion has or has not happened, or if such a concept really exists in market movements. It is absolutely true that large movements happen that have perfectly sound justifications. All of them are the subject of serious quantitative analysis by highly qualified technicians, some with Nobel Prizes. Every single such tool is stochastic, and uses the past to try to predict the future. That works when the future follows the past neatly and smoothly. It sometimes does that. Hence the best neural networks still use observations as the basis for prognostication.

Hence, nobody can know, but some guess better than do others. Gordon Johnson, for example had a stellar track record. Then he misdiagnosed Tesla.

In the current situation emotions are exacerbated by current events. Those events were perfectly predictable back in 2013. They still are.

Many people including one or two giant TSLA investors, assumed TSLA would go up and up because of intrinsic value. They then figured lots of margin and derivatives would accelerate their riches, which would happen if they were correct. "Nothing goes "up and up" smoothly. NOTHING! Hence when that perfectly predictable political upheaval happened to appear (BTW, this has been FUD, SEC, NHTSA, FSD and many other acronyms, plus, the odd long-planned invasion.

All of that portended high volatility for TSLA. Elon even warned that if investors were afraid of volatility they should not buy TSLA.

So, when Capitulation? Nobody knows.

Several of us repeatedly warn that dealing in market timing and derivatives is doomed unless you're a market maker. Other insist that they know the 'secret sauce'. That is false and will remain so. Human behavior is not yet susceptible to accurate and precise prediction. Precise? Sure, that is the norm. Accurate? Never yet. Even Hari Seldon Psychohistory could not imagine precise and accurate, and that had Isaac Asimov to imagine it.

So, run fast from anybody who suggests they know when Capitulation happens. Ten years from now we'll know what happened now if we're still around to understand what actually happened.

In the meantime I, as usual HODL. Taking the longer view all is well with TSLA. Not so with many others.
FWIW, when a major event happens my rule is to stop watching markets. I have no idea where they are now and I will not look. I will keep track of the actual events. Those whether about TSLA or the world, are serious enough. I will not trade at all during hysteria. Were I a market maker I'd be quite gleeful from an economic perspectives; Margin calls are profitable things! So are active traders (oops) marks.

Great post and it is impossible to overstress the near-tautology that were one to try to overlay this situation today atop market hiccups of the past, in order to determine how to act...the immediate 2nd Order corollary is that the Collective Market already would have so acted.
Further, "when a major event happens my rule is to stop watching markets". Yes! All this week, I have made use of the market hours in order to complete my lovely birthday present of a 2,000 piece jigsaw puzzle. A far more productive enterprise.

 

[Drax7]

Why do I get the feeling , now that Russian can blackmail europe , that
somehow the tesla berlin factory permits will be arriving very soon.
urgently soon and with excess water

 

[2daMoon]

With Tesla's cash and income they certainly can afford to ditch Berlin and simply build elsewhere to replace it. I do not think Tesla is afraid of writing off sunk costs and learning hard lessons with very quick corrective decision making. Even with something as large as a Giga Factory if need be.

Once those companies run out of money for funding the environmentalists groups who are spear-heading the onslaught of red tape, (as Telsa China imports do to those companies exactly what they were trying to prevent), then, the factory will find the seas calmer and smooth sailing ahead.

The people of Germany (and EU) have already spoken with their wallets as the whisper has been steadily growing into the roar of an apex predator.

It is only a matter of time. Patience is a virtue.