Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Everything in terms of information has pointed to the Austin-Y being identical in specs.

Austin Models Y will have front castings, a new body design modified for the structural battery pack, and the first use of 4680 cells as part of their spec.

Model Y in Fremont differed primarily from Model 3 by first use of the rear casting, and a new body structure to accomodate the hatchback.

I'd argue that Fremont Y has more in common with Fremont 3 than with the Austin Y. Would you also claim that Model 3 is "identical in specs" to the Fremont Y?

Of course, several of us have discussed here for months the advantages of offering an upmarket Austin Model Y initially ie: Plaid Y @ $80K during the ramp (ie: until local 4680 production is able to replace Kato Rd. cells). Paging @TheTalkingMule

As Sandy Munro recently showed us, Models 3/Y/S all have backward- and forward-compatible castings/housing for motor inverters. Model Y Plaid doesn't need a 175 mph top speed like the current Plaid S offers (with ceramic brake upgrade), so Plaid Y may not even require carbon-wrapped rotors like P/S.

I think this all makes an upgraded-spec, higher-priced Model Y from Austin more likely.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now, do we bang our heads off the Middle-BB again?

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[advocate8]

The only thing I can come up with that makes sense is they are looking to build their used inventory faster to build up a robo fleet. From my understanding on the status of FSD, it's way too early to be doing that...

It’s BS. Just an over-enthusiastic SA pushing the various known and recent upgrades including the nifty lithium replacement for the 12v. Ross misunderstood and conflated that with 4680....

 

[Gigapress]

You really don't want to do this. The trailer needs to be as light as possible (and still have all the goodies) because free rolling axles (e.g. trailer axles) have more rolling resistance than drive axles (e.g. vehicle axles). There are other reasons as well, such as having a battery that needs to be maintained during the months you don't use it.

I wonder how much of a difference that makes. I only tow with my bicycle but my understanding is that for truck towing aero drag is usually 90% or more of the energy draw with rolling resistance being less than 5%.

On the other hand, maintaining battery health for a trailer sitting around would be tough. Maybe it'll be common someday for trailers to be used for V2G to help pay off the battery costs and keep it healthy.

 

[Mengy]

I think this all makes an upgraded-spec, higher-priced Model Y from Austin more likely.

I think it's more likely the initial Austin Model Y's will be "de-tuned" to have comparable performance specs to the Fremont MYLR and MYP. Sure the Austin cars will have structural packs, 4680's, and front castings, but I have a hunch they will reduce the size of the battery packs just enough to give comparable ranges to the Fremont cars even with the reduced curb weights. This will increase margins of course.

That's my gut feeling to how they'll roll the Austin cars out. At least until they get both Fremont and Austin producing the same cars exactly, THEN I think they'll bump the specs up a bit across the line.

 

[JRP3]

On the other hand, maintaining battery health for a trailer sitting around would be tough. Maybe it'll be common someday for trailers to be used for V2G to help pay off the battery costs and keep it healthy.

A lithium pack not being cycled will last longer than one being cycled, especially if kept in a partially charged state.

 

[jerry33]

I wonder how much of a difference that makes. I only tow with my bicycle but my understanding is that for truck towing aero drag is usually 90% or more of the energy draw with rolling resistance being less than 5%.

On the other hand, maintaining battery health for a trailer sitting around would be tough. Maybe it'll be common someday for trailers to be used for V2G to help pay off the battery costs and keep it healthy.

3% to 5% depending upon the actual configuration. I put it out there because no one else mentioned it. Yes, it's not much compared to aerodynamics, but it's not zero either.

 

[Motor Mouth]

I think it's more likely the initial Austin Model Y's will be "de-tuned" to have comparable performance specs to the Fremont MYLR and MYP. Sure the Austin cars will have structural packs, 4680's, and front castings, but I have a hunch they will reduce the size of the battery packs just enough to give comparable ranges to the Fremont cars even with the reduced curb weights. This will increase margins of course.

That's my gut feeling to how they'll roll the Austin cars out. At least until they get both Fremont and Austin producing the same cars exactly, THEN I think they'll bump the specs up a bit across the line.

FWIW this is what I figured they'd do (and hope they do). Smaller, more efficient battery packs = more EV's on the road = mission alignment.

 

[jerry33]

A lithium pack not being cycled will last longer than one being cycled, especially if kept in a partially charged state.

Keeping it partially charged is maintenance. It's far better off in the vehicle.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think it's more likely the initial Austin Model Y's will be "de-tuned" to have comparable performance specs to the Fremont MYLR and MYP. Sure the Austin cars will have structural packs, 4680's, and front castings, but I have a hunch they will reduce the size of the battery packs just enough to give comparable ranges to the Fremont cars even with the reduced curb weights. This will increase margins of course.

That's my gut feeling to how they'll roll the Austin cars out. At least until they get both Fremont and Austin producing the same cars exactly, THEN I think they'll bump the specs up a bit across the line.

Or they could introduce another Model Y variant like Performance+, or something like that, that is more expensive and differentiates between what you can get now in Fremont.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Polls show more than half of Rivian customers are cancelling their reservations

Rivian announced some major changes to their lineup yesterday, adding a Dual-Motor AWD variant and raising prices for new and existing customers by as much as $20,000 or more depending on the configuration. Reaction was […]

driveteslacanada.ca

Well...well...well.....

 

[elasalle]

Austin is supposed to be for east coast and Fremont for the west.
Will be interesting to see how it handles the transition ...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think it's more likely the initial Austin Model Y's will be "de-tuned" to have comparable performance specs to the Fremont MYLR and MYP.

I thinks that's what you'd do if you were concerned about demand, and didn't have a 1+ year order backlog.

Sure the Austin cars will have structural packs, 4680's, and front castings, but I have a hunch they will reduce the size of the battery packs just enough to give comparable ranges to the Fremont cars even with the reduced curb weights. This will increase margins of course.

Not trivial to reduce the size of the battery. Hint: the cells are STRUCTURAL ie: missing cells compromise the strength of the battery pack. Software limiting cost money, since the pack costs the same even with reduced allowed performance.

That's my gut feeling to how they'll roll the Austin cars out. At least until they get both Fremont and Austin producing the same cars exactly, THEN I think they'll bump the specs up a bit across the line.

No large advantage to rolling out the same car everywere, when pricing can easily differentiate between models. It's mainly performance that sells. Tesla won't hold back the leading edge of performance, same way Intel made the 486 chip and the Penitum at the same time.

The target is not Model Y from Fremont, it BMW X5 from Chattanooga.

 

[JRP3]

Keeping it partially charged is maintenance. It's far better off in the vehicle.

Not sure I'm understanding. A pack could be partially charged and then left unplugged for years if designed to do so with no maintenance at all. Cycle life causes more degradation than calendar life.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ladies and Gentlemen...i have found the biggest bullish signal for $TSLA stock...i present to you

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499072794461540355

TL DW: Cramer says he would take Farley over Elon in 2026.....we all know what happens when Cramer says or predicts something.

 

[nativewolf]

Austin Models Y will have front castings, a new body design modified for the structural battery pack, and the first use of 4680 cells as part of their spec.

Model Y in Fremont differed primarily from Model 3 by first use of the rear casting, and new body structure to accomodate the hatchback.

I'd argue that Fremont Y has more in common with Fremont 3 than with the Austin Y. Would you also claim that Model 3 is "identical in specs" to the Fremont Y?

Of course, several of us have discussed here for months the advantages of offering an upmarket Austin Model Y initially ie: Plaid Y @ $80K during the ramp (ie: until local 4680 production is able to replace Kato Rd. cells). Paging @TheTalkingMule

As Sandy Munro recently showed us, Models 3/Y/S all have backward- and forward-compatible castings/housing for motor inverters. Model Y Plaid doesn't need a 175 mph top speed like the current Plaid S offers (with ceramic brake upgrade), so Plaid Y may not even require carbon-wrapped rotors like P/S.

I think this all makes an upgraded-spec, higher-priced Model Y from Austin more likely.

Cheers!

I like the mechanical aspects of the structural packs and dual castings. To me this is going to form the frame of a car that has incredible longevity. It is likely the best structure ever used in a production vehicle. For me that's a huge attraction. That and I think the 4680 will simply last a lot longer than any other format produced today. As the owner of nearly 400k mile vehicle, bad things happen to great vehicles. Time...an ugly friend

 

[Electroman]

Jumping in on Ross Gerbert: if you watched his interview with Dave Lee you will lose a lot of respect for him. He's always seemed more of a cheerleader type unlike Gary Black so my opinion of him was more neutral than positive. He lost all credibility to me when he talked about Palantir in that interview when he criticized its business model. The problem wasn't his opinion of Palantir's business model, but that he didn't know what it is, made up what it is based on probably urban legends he read on twitter, then criticized it. Very distasteful and ignorant.

Agreed. And these are the kind of FMs who once they sell a company's stocks will suddenly start singing a different completely opposite tune.

PS: To Chamath's credit, he has been silent on Tesla since he sold it early last year.

 

[Drax7]

Ladies and Gentlemen...i have found the biggest bullish signal for $TSLA stock...i present to you

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499072794461540355

TL DW: Cramer says he would take Farley over Elon in 2026.....we all know what happens when Cramer says or predicts something.

Never underestimate the stupidity Cramer spews.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Ladies and Gentlemen...i have found the biggest bullish signal for $TSLA stock...i present to you

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499072794461540355

TL DW: Cramer says he would take Farley over Elon in 2026.....we all know what happens when Cramer says or predicts something.

what is Tesla's 2026 US production goal? Well over 2M which would be 2023 #'s at a minimum I'd assume
Is Nevada going to make vehicles?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The only entertainment value Ross brought was when he asked Gordo if he was willing to bet his life on his price target on $TSLA.