Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

I am considering going up for the case. I have contacted another TMC member for advice (thanks!) and been on the Court website. NO CELL PHONES allowed in court so may get nothing till after the case is over which I suspect could be around 3pm.

I just hope if I go up there are enough seats in the courtroom......

Is it allowed to record sound ?

A USB stick with a microphone and solid state memory fits in the smallest of pockets.

 

[lklundin]

I'm picturing something like this:

Considering my very significant investment in TSLA, I have to appeal to any would-be-attending Tesla fan to act responsibly and not give the judge any reason to think less of Tesla.

Thanks in advance.

 

[mongo]

Is it allowed to record sound ?

A USB stick with a microphone and solid state memory fits in the smallest of pockets.

I think you'll get stopped at the medal detectors.
Random Google results:

The federal appellate courts may adopt their own rules regarding cameras and recording equipment in the courtroom. At the time of writing, only the Second Circuit and the Ninth Circuit Courts of Appeals allow recording equipment.

http://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/recording-public-meetings-and-court-hearings

However, it may be legal anyway...
Federal Court: Secretly Recording Government Officials Is a First Amendment Right

 

[Nocturnal]

The Maxwell merger is your typical merger: i.e. very likely to happen, though not guaranteed. Tesla's set it up in a fashion which makes it extremely hard to stop unless there's a "bidding war" and there are no signs of another bidder.

I wouldn't bet on exactly WHEN it's going to go through, though (that said, I kind of have bet a little on when it's going to go through, but I'm fine even if I'm wrong -- I wouldn't be playing short-term call options or stuff like that though).

Maxwell worked very hard to find another buyer and came up short. I doubt there will be an issue.

 

[KarenRei]

Please, people, don't push any bounds at the hearing...

If you go, please be a model citizen, sit calmly and follow all the rules.

Please....

If you can't do that, please just don't go.

 

[Krugerrand]

CKD has been used by Tesla and almost all major auto factories. Bulk parts shipments, including complex stamping, are part of every major manufacturer normal process also. Better to do it all in one place, sure, if all other things are equal, but they are not.

OMG. Context, pls and thx.

Tesla does not use CKD in the context of the conversation started. And it makes no sense to do it. It’s cost prohibitive.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I don't think the Maxwell tech is production ready for cells, unless what Maxwell presented wasn't the whole story. So even once Tesla completes the purchase I think it will be at least a year before they start production of dry-electrode cells. They will need more cell capacity before that, so they need to start building now.

Hmm, not the same as what I recalled. In Maxwell's conference call (q3?), they said they had a pilot line running with a "partner" to validate the tech. Other than Tesla, who else could've validated the process?

Since the process was already validated, then it should only be a matter of building up the cell production line to make dry-electrodes. A year might be too long.

 

[PaulusdB]

Please, people, don't push any bounds at the hearing...

If you go, please be a model citizen, sit calmly and follow all the rules.

Please....

If you can't do that, please just don't go.

Or what?

Be accused of contempt of court and get to sit next to Elon?

 

[HG Wells]

We are now up 5 !

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's through MarketWatch - 3 minutes ago: Tesla Stock Is Facing ‘Excessive’ Negativity, Analyst Says

He reiterated his outlook for the stock while posting first-quarter delivery and production numbers that are below Wall Street’s consensus. Houchois has a Buy rating and a $450 price target on the stock that is well above FactSet’s $335 average.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't think they'll ship around stamped panels: to store them safely against damage is both a significant expense and decreases transportation density, which increases logistics costs.

Here's what Elon said about what will be made in the Shanghai Gigafactory, on the Q4 conference call 2 months ago:

Elon Musk:

"And earlier this month, we saw the construction of our Gigafactory in Shanghai, and by the end of this year, we expect to be producing Model 3s using a complete vehicle production line. That's body, paint, final assembly, general assembly and module production."

"So it basically would be - this will be extremely fast. I get like daily updates of progress of the Shanghai Gigafactory, and those factories are going to go up like lightning."​

Note that while he didn't mention press/stamp lines, he didn't mention injection molding lines either - those are naturally placed close to the body and final assembly lines. Completely-knocked-down-kits (CDK's) sometimes get shipped around the globe but are a major complication on the Fremont Model 3 production side which Tesla doesn't need.

Nor are stamps really expensive at the 3k/week rate they are targeting: I believe the main expense are the paint shop baths and booths, the robots of the chassis/body lines and the robots/stations of the general and final assembly line. I suspect they'll do a plastics shop too, with a lot of molding machines. Plus a new Grohmann Machine to make SR packs.

Big stamping machines may have long lead times - but that simply means that they have to sequence their orders properly for it all to arrive at the intended date. The dimensions and capacity should already be well specified at this stage, as the Model 3 and Model Y dimensions are already pinned down.

Do dies have long lead times, or is Tesla making those themselves?
Have I forgotten anything else?

Cell supply is the big question, IMHO.

Edit, Tesla mentioned stamp lines in the Q4 update letter:

"In the initial phase of Gigafactory Shanghai, we expect to have stamping, paint shop, body joining, and general assembly shops in operation by the end of 2019. This accelerated timeframe should be possible due to the radical simplification of our manufacturing layout and processes compared to our first-generation production line in Fremont. Higher-spec models such as our long-range all-wheel drive (AWD) and Performance versions will continue to be shipped to China from the US."​

I believe "general assembly shops" includes the plastic molding shop.

The only things missing from the China plan is:

• Cell factory: This is probably still being negotiated, but I'd expect cells to be made at the Shanghai Gigafactory, in a similar construct to GF1.
  
• Power-train factory: these are high density, low volume, small size components which are easy to export from the Gigafactory and might help them protect their EV IP.
• Seat factory: which they have in Fremont and which is relatively easy to export as well, although it might make sense to move this to China next, as they are low density components which makes transportation more expensive, plus seats could probably be further simplified for the Chinese market to reduce ASP.
• Glass factory: I think it's made in GF2 right now, and that's not necessarily easy to export. They might be outsourcing window production, and they might opt for a metal roof instead of the glass roof. This would also differentiate the Chinese versions from the import versions very clearly.
• HW3 board factory: this too is probably better done in the U.S., although they might eventually bring this to China too.

Yes, die building has a long lead time and it’s expensive. On the plus side, for China they’d essentially ‘only’ have to make a copy set of dies for the 3. This should reduce a bit of time, but not nearly as much as one might think. We aren’t copying fork dies. Tesla may be making some die improvement changes with the next set unless they already feel the dies are perfect. I doubt it. So, that would require time added at several steps.

Y dies will be brand new so full time required.

Tesla does have the die shop in Michigan to make dies, but it’s not nearly a big enough place to make all the dies. Not even close, so Tesla has to have outside die sources. That can add time. Logically, you’d build the copy dies in Asia somewhere to reduce time and expense just on the shipping side of things.

 

[TNEVol]

Is it allowed to record sound ?

A USB stick with a microphone and solid state memory fits in the smallest of pockets.

Most Federal Courthouses require a very sensitive scan at entrance. They will either require you to return your devices to your car or may have lockers for them to be placed until you leave so you won't get past the front door. I assume you are joking but this is not a good idea.

 

[Causalien]

The financial media is pretty annoying and I couldn't find the details of the acquisition to calculate arbitrage.

Media says $4.75 per share at $218 million total. What I want to find out is, how many shares of maxwell per tesla shares since it is an all stock transaction. Anyone?

 

[KarenRei]

Or what?

Be accused of contempt of court and get to sit next to Elon?

Or have millions of Tesla investors mad at you for giving the judge a negative impression of Tesla supporters?

This isn't a game, it's a hearing. Please either behave or don't go.

Otherwise... if nobody here can dissuade you from wanting to go and misbehave in the courtroom... please at least do so while wearing a TSLAQ hat and a Shorty Air Force shirt

 

[Nocturnal]

I keep thinking that with all the new Model 3 owners world wide, there are going to be a lot of new investors buying TSLA, and the current price couldn't be any better for them.

Yeah, I thought I was doing good with an average cost of 300. Of course my first buy-in was way back at 180....wish I had sold the farm instead of just putting 10k in.

Although even adding up all the P3 owners we are still small potatoes.

 

[lklundin]

Most Federal Courthouses require a very sensitive scan at entrance. They will either require you to return your devices to your car or may have lockers for them to be placed until you leave so you won't get past the front door. I assume you are joking but this is not a good idea.

I was not joking, I was sincerely asking if the recording of sound is allowed.

(and if yes, I was pointing out how to do so with a non-disturbing device).

PS. Your contributions here are highly informative, thank you for that.

 

[jbcarioca]

OMG. Context, pls and thx.

Tesla does not use CKD in the context of the conversation started. And it makes no sense to do it. It’s cost prohibitive.

To over-simplify what might be a very long post to explain why one might misunderstand my post, here's the wiki, which even mentions the Tesla Tilberg operation:
Knock-down_kit
For what it is worth I have owned a ckd built vehicle and driven a number of others:
A ChevIran, which was a CKD Opel Commodore assembled in Iran, as the name implies.
A Range Rover Evoque, assembed in Brazil right now.
and quite a few more.

The technique is nearly always employed to avoid some kind of taxation. Some significant parts ships, including body panels are shipped internationally for a wide variety of reasons, including concentration of capital intensive and/or labor intensive pieces.

As for OMG is response, I fear you might well have been thinking mostly about the paint line, maybe even stamping. I personally know of no CKD automotive operation that uses pre-painted major components, although I would not be shocked to find some.. They even do that sometimes with aircraft, where gigantic components are sometimes moved very long distances.

If you were thinking of something different please say.

Several comments from various people, including the Shanghai mayor IIRC (I did not look it up) implied some production might begin in late 3Q 2019. Such a schedule, even considering the speed with which they are working, is not likely to allow for stamping operations to be prepared, nor battery or pack production. Of course, I am very reluctant to underestimate what might happen.

After all, I once resided in a Chinese-built building that was sandy soil five months before I lived there.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Officially 5000 Model 3 in Norway

 

[lklundin]

Please, people, don't push any bounds at the hearing...

If you go, please be a model citizen, sit calmly and follow all the rules.

Please....

If you can't do that, please just don't go.

With such appeals I guess the court hearing may end up seeing Tesla merchandise abused in a classic false flag operation carried out by desperate types like Mark BS...

 

[BornToFly]

Officially 5000 Model 3 in Norway
View attachment 390828

How many I-Pace and e-Trons registered in Norway in March?