Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jeewee3000]

I'd like to see Tesla break the law, sell some cars directly in Texas, with Elon handling it personally, and then have him dare them to come arrest him.

Unfortunately one does not get arrested for breaking laws of this nature. One gets fined.

I'm more in favor of Tesla actively campaigning or lobbying to change these silly laws instead of purposefully ignoring them and hurting their bottom line.

 

[mongo]

That 'recall' is likely to grow to more than 947. Quite a few reports I've seen of it happening in the UK, including on mine. It's going to be one of those OTA recalls though so would be good if they could jump on it quickly before the number creeps up.

The fix was already released last year and the problem software was only on 947 vehicles. (Not to say there isn't a different issue not addressed by this recall)
The issue was a software bug in versions 2021.44.25 through 2021.44.25.2 . This software was only sent out to limited vehicles starting Dec 19th and the problem was quickly detected. New software version 2021.44.30 rolled out Dec 30th.
The recall is for traceability and notification purposes. Tesla internal testing did not fund any cases where the backup camera display took more than the required 2 seconds maximum to appear.

 

[Knightshade]

Unfortunately one does not get arrested for breaking laws of this nature. One gets fined.

I'm more in favor of Tesla actively campaigning or lobbying to change these silly laws instead of purposefully ignoring them and hurting their bottom line.

FWIW Tesla has been actively campaigning and lobbying to change these laws, for years, to no effect so far in Texas (and varying effect in other states with such laws)

Texas auto dealers receive Tesla-sized dent from state GOP

Texas auto dealers receive Tesla-sized dent from state GOP

www.dallasnews.com

Story from 2016 about these efforts in Texas for example


It's why Elon was well aware they exist and mentioned it on twitter as being an issue for the company, despite 2DaMoon continuing to insist Elon doesn't know what he's talking about.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla will probably employ more Texans soon than all of the stealerships combined, I imagine.

Moreover tesla can contribute more to the political campaigns than all
the dealerships combined.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Unfortunately one does not get arrested for breaking laws of this nature. One gets fined.

I'm more in favor of Tesla actively campaigning or lobbying to change these silly laws instead of purposefully ignoring them and hurting their bottom line.

They’ve been trying for eight years.

 

[jerry33]

Tesla will probably employ more Texans soon than all of the stealerships combined, I imagine.

Too bad the only thing that counts is money in the legislators' pockets.

 

[jerry33]

Moreover tesla can contribute more to the political campaigns than all
the dealerships combined.

The can, but once you start paying ransom, the blackmailer just keeps coming back. Best to just ridicule them.

 

[elasalle]

A slightly Red close might be best for today , so we can get rid of "tesla has been up continuously for past X days" narrative.

Next 2-3 weeks are poised for excitement.

 

[Nocturnal]

A slightly Red close might be best for today , so we can get rid of "tesla has been up continuously for past X days" narrative.

Next 2-3 weeks are poised for excitement.

Not sure you will get your wish.

 

[betstarship]

We are GREEN

Edit: Always wanted to post that one day

 

[2daMoon]

A slightly Red close might be best for today , so we can get rid of "tesla has been up continuously for past X days" narrative.

Next 2-3 weeks are poised for excitement.

Your point is a good one, though, I'm still firmly in the camp of a 3.5% SP rise per day being adequate for my meager needs.

 

[Nocturnal]

Have we seen details that show Tesla is ready to start doing this?

Tesla set to open up UK Supercharger network “within weeks” | Electrifying

Exclusive network of chargers will be opened up to all electric car drivers faster than expected, says government minister. Read more on Electrifying.com

www.electrifying.com

Speaking to Founder and CEO of Electrifying.com Ginny Buckley earlier this week, Transport Minister Trudy Harrison confirmed the move, stating: “Tesla recognise that they are part of the solution here” and that the move could come “within weeks and months rather than years”.

 

[StealthP3D]

Re. Elon’s tweet, since they had not produced in Texas yet, he may have taken the tweet he answewd as factual, so his answer may be like «Oh. Then, I think, I would…». But now it is me adding to the discussion, sorry…

If you think Tesla and Elon can chose to build a multi-billion dollar plant in Texas, a state that they already couldn't do direct sales in, without understanding the implications of that direct sales ban on local sales, well, then I am speechless. It's a gross under-estimation of who Tesla is.

That said, even if I thought Tesla would never sell another car to a Texas resident, ever again, I would still invest in TSLA to the same degree. Yes, this is a big nothing-burger in the bigger picture. And that's not even how this will play out because you cannot stop an idea whose time has come. The relevant part of this discussion for an investor is learning how to parse and process information in an intelligent manner. When I see misperceptions repeated, I don't like to let them stand. Because, before you know it, people have constructed a fantasy understanding of the world, one that doesn't make sense on any level, except to the people holding the misperceptions. One misunderstanding leads to another. the only reason I respond is to because it serves no one to parse information in an irrational way. It's a bad habit many people have.

There is a reason Tesla sales in Texas happen before the car crosses the state line. The buyer of a Tesla in Texas already owns the car as it crosses into Texas' jurisdiction and that makes the new owner the importer of the car, not the manufacturer. If the car and the buyer are already in Texas, it cannot be construed as a sale that took place in another state. Elon knows this. I don't like to see people using weak thinking to make up alternate realities. Not because the specific point is so important but because it leads to other errors in thinking and investing in general requires rigorous and clear thinking. As Elon said, the goal is to be less wrong.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Do you see strong parallels to Dot com period, on the risk front (asset devaluation)?

Not even close. The dot com bubble was insane - random companies would announce "we're creating a web page!" and their valuations would sky rocket over night. Companies with no revenue were going public left and right. It was a giant speculative gold rush with little thought about how any of these companies would actually pull off what they said they wanted to do.

Compare that to Tesla which is very profitable and growing 50%+ a year. That puts it more in a league with Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon than the dot coms.

There is definitely a lot of speculation that EVs are the future, and people are making bets accordingly on unproven companies like Rivian and Lucid. But Tesla has shown that there is a real business there and it isn't just hype like it was in the dot com era. I'd start to get worried about a speculative bubble if companies like IBM, Johnson and Johnson, or Netflix announced they were making EVs and their valuations tripled as a result.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Have we seen details that show Tesla is ready to start doing this?

Tesla set to open up UK Supercharger network “within weeks” | Electrifying

Exclusive network of chargers will be opened up to all electric car drivers faster than expected, says government minister. Read more on Electrifying.com

www.electrifying.com

Speaking to Founder and CEO of Electrifying.com Ginny Buckley earlier this week, Transport Minister Trudy Harrison confirmed the move, stating: “Tesla recognise that they are part of the solution here” and that the move could come “within weeks and months rather than years”.

Not from anyone else other than Trudy Harrison.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

The fix was already released last year and the problem software was only on 947 vehicles. (Not to say there isn't a different issue not addressed by this recall)
The issue was a software bug in versions 2021.44.25 through 2021.44.25.2 . This software was only sent out to limited vehicles starting Dec 19th and the problem was quickly detected. New software version 2021.44.30 rolled out Dec 30th.
The recall is for traceability and notification purposes. Tesla internal testing did not fund any cases where the backup camera display took more than the required 2 seconds maximum to appear.

Well, there's been an issue with this in 2022.x.x software. Maybe it's been fixed already, but I've witnessed it. At least one owner I know reversed his Model 3 into a post because the rear view camera was displaying a cached image for several seconds when he put it in reverse.

 

[Artful Dodger]

BREAKING*:

Tesla Welt Blogger: "Tesla is building a 2nd Model Y line already" at Giga Berlin (1 hr ago)

Courtesy @DaveT at Dave Lee on Investing

Cheers!

*As in, Breaking all Production limits....

 

[lafrisbee]

Does Texas direct local delivery matter that much overall?

All other US states are further from Austin than their border of Texas (or the straight line path for non-contiguous states).
Therefore, delivery to any non-Texan purchaser requires driving past the border of Texas.
Tesla car carriers usually return empty.
Therefore, delivery from Austin to any non-Texan purchaser involves a car carrier to leaving the state of Texas and returning empty.
Therefore, the only impact of Tesla not being able to deliver vehicle directly to Texas residents is the inherent inefficiency of driving a car carrier to the closest border (no, I'm not checking if bordering states block sales or if that matters, it's moot) and back to delivery point. Louisiana is about 300 miles East. Doubling that for a round trip back to Austin is the equivilent of a one way trip to Memphis.
In other words, east coast deliveries cost more than Texan deliveries. Further, Austin to border to a Texan is still better than Fremont to Texas (1,700 miles one way Fremont to Austin).

Delivery fees are legally required to be the same regardless of destination. Any Texas demographic inefficiency is soaked up by that fee in aggregate. So, unless Tesla is under charging for Fremont to all of the US, it can't hurt the bottom line (ignoring long haul rail vs over the raid differences).

Yes, it is worse environmentally, and is a waste of resources, but other than that I don't see a major issue. (One could even say the car carriers going back and forth are advertising in Texas)

I think we had a discussion YEARS ago. I think I mentioned that the closest Indian nation/preservation would do the same function...or Mexico.

 

[Rarity]

BREAKING*:

Tesla Welt Blogger: "Tesla is building a 2nd Model Y line already" at Giga Berlin (1 hr ago)

Courtesy @DaveT at Dave Lee on Investing

Cheers!

*As in, Breaking all Production limits....

This is not news to observant viewers of the drone videos. A week or two ago, we could see very active foundation work on a sizeable expansion of the stamping section.

 

[Singuy]

Would love your thoughts, especially those who were experienced dot-com period in stocks


I am trying to understand current situation, and here's what I see:
A lot of money was pumped into the system post covid breakout (in fact even before covid, at least since QE-1), both Monetary policy (Interest rates, QE), and Fiscal policy. At a time when production went down, demand went up due to this extraordinary money supply, causing inflation.

Housing was pumped with explosive combination of all-time low mortgage rates (thanks to incremental MBS purchases until a few weeks ago), and high asset prices (high stock valuations) which made down payments easy for large many.
Now there's runaway inflation. For example, if we take housing, house prices go up, people take cash out and invest in buying more homes. Why? because house price are going up. This lead to the vicious cycle.

Is it the case that, (1) this money supply pumped into the system still being around, and (2) tens of millions of new “traders” (stock and options) is likely stopping the collapse of the market? Because, there's a lot of money on the put side too, both retail and institutional?

Do you share the view that for controlling the inflation, money needs to be sucked out, asset valuations must be brought down?
2006-2008 likely is not a similar situation, we didn't have so much money pumped into the system at that time?

I wasn't in stock market during Dot com bubble.
Was there such high money supply during that time? I read the asset valuations were high, likely even higher than now (not nominal)

If we take housing, looks like we will have a step-up inflation that will not be reversed, offset but will have to live with?
Home prices went up ~40% from Jan2019, and mortgage rates today are same as in Jan-2019. Incomes didn't grow anywhere close to that. This means, Fed robbed the opportunity of housing from millions, and that too from those who are already at the bottom of wealth pyramid. The only way this can be corrected is by bringing down house prices, because interest rates can’t be brought down with the current inflation?

Do you see strong parallels to Dot com period, on the risk front (asset devaluation)?

@Artful Dodger @StealthP3D @FrankSG @The Accountant @generalenthu @ZeApelido @bxr140

There was a dot com bubble and it has been popped already. Basically most of Ark's holdings were part of this bubble. It all started with her etf getting Tesla right, which led people to think any of her holdings will be the next Tesla. So people foolishly bid up every company ARK held to insane levels using stimulus money. Companies with revenue closer to a 1 percenter household became multi billion dollar companies. All of these companies are down 80% from their highs and will most likely not recover to ATH ever. So all of the companies on Wall Street went through this massive correction already and today is the result of what is left.