Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

This guy does a very detailed breakdown of why Sandy Munro was completely wrong about FLIR and points out how Alex/E For Electric used Sandy's statements to spread more FUD.

 

[2daMoon]

Considering logistics for Tesla delivering to Texas from GigaTexas, the Kickapoo reservation is 200 miles from the factory.

Though, Thackerville, OK could be another good choice at 246 miles as it is nearer to population centers and located on an Interstate highway.

So, load a truck with Texas-bound deliveries and drive to Thackerville. Park the truck there until the sale is processed, then move the truck to the delivery point.

Houston and San Antonio are each about 300 miles from Thackerville for a total of ~550 miles from factory to delivery. Not too bad compared to delivery from Freemont.

Likewise, there could easily be multiple staging areas, roughly one at each of the cardinal points. Thackerville (serving DFW), Kickapoo reservation (serving Austin/San Antonio), Alabama-Couchata reservation (serving Houston), and maybe a New Mexico location if warranted.

This just doesn't seem like too much of a logistics issue, and the legislative side will sort itself out as the Dealer Association moseys toward extinction in pace with the demise of ICE and their power over lawmaking wanes.

 

[stealthyc]

Well, there's been an issue with this in 2022.x.x software. Maybe it's been fixed already, but I've witnessed it. At least one owner I know reversed his Model 3 into a post because the rear view camera was displaying a cached image for several seconds when he put it in reverse.

It happens to me in the latest FSD beta on my 3

 

[Ogre]

There was a dot com bubble and it has been popped already. Basically most of Ark's holdings were part of this bubble. It all started with her etf getting Tesla right, which led people to think any of her holdings will be the next Tesla. So people foolishly bid up every company ARK held to insane levels using stimulus money. Companies with revenue closer to a 1 percenter household became multi billion dollar companies. All of these companies are down 80% from their highs and will most likely not recover to ATH ever. So all of the companies on Wall Street went through this massive correction already and today is the result of what is left.

This isn’t entirely correct.

During the Dot Com boom, very few of the companies which were valued insanely high had significant income. It was all speculative. Most of them were valued based on traffic and had no business model. As people realized more and more of those businesses had a viable model, they imploded and it got a momentum of it’s own. Most ceased to exist or were acquired for pennies on the dollar a few years after the bust.

Most of ARK’s holdings have significant income and some are even profitable. Most of ARK’s holdings will be fine in the next 5 years or so, some like Zoom were a bit inflated due to COVID, but still have a business that has lots of paying customers. Most of ARK’s companies will be significant businesses into the future.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Considering logistics for Tesla delivering to Texas from GigaTexas, the Kickapoo reservation is 200 miles from the factory.

Though, Thackerville, OK could be another good choice at 246 miles as it is nearer to population centers and located on an Interstate highway.

So, load a truck with Texas-bound deliveries and drive to Thackerville. Park the truck there until the sale is processed, then move the truck to the delivery point.

Houston and San Antonio are each about 300 miles from Thackerville for a total of ~550 miles from factory to delivery. Not too bad compared to delivery from Freemont.

Likewise, there could easily be multiple staging areas, roughly one at each of the cardinal points. Thackerville (serving DFW), Kickapoo reservation (serving Austin/San Antonio), Alabama-Couchata reservation (serving Houston), and maybe a New Mexico location if warranted.

This just doesn't seem like too much of a logistics issue, and the legislative side will sort itself out as the Dealer Association moseys toward extinction in pace with the demise of ICE and their power over lawmaking wanes.

So we should keep a lookout for Tesla-ladened trucks heading from Austin to points out-of-state and back in the coming week. Could be the first deliveries announced at the big party.

 

[Singuy]

This isn’t entirely correct.

During the Dot Com boom, very few of the companies which were valued insanely high had significant income. It was all speculative. Most of them were valued based on traffic and had no business model. As people realized more and more of those businesses had a viable model, they imploded and it got a momentum of it’s own. Most ceased to exist or were acquired for pennies on the dollar a few years after the bust.

Most of ARK’s holdings have significant income and some are even profitable. Most of ARK’s holdings will be fine in the next 5 years or so, some like Zoom were a bit inflated due to COVID, but still have a business that has lots of paying customers. Most of ARK’s companies will be significant businesses into the future.

Amazon, Apple, and Cisco during the .com bubble are the zoom, teledoc of today. Made revenue but still go crushed.

Pets.com are the Aquabounty and Nano Dimensions of today.

 

[Christine69420]

A slightly Red close might be best for today , so we can get rid of "tesla has been up continuously for past X days" narrative.

Next 2-3 weeks are poised for excitement.

And a slightly red but still above $1000 would be absolutely delightful!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Amazon, Apple, and Cisco during the .com bubble are the zoom, teledoc of today. Made revenue but still go crushed.

Pets.com are the Aquabounty and Nano Dimensions of today.

Who’s Tesla’s .com bust equivalent?

 

[Usain]

BREAKING*:

Tesla Welt Blogger: "Tesla is building a 2nd Model Y line already" at Giga Berlin (1 hr ago)

Courtesy @DaveT at Dave Lee on Investing

Cheers!

*As in, Breaking all Production limits....

To me, the most important nugget revealed in that video is at the end where he talks about how excited the employees were to deliver those first cars. I think he even said that some had tears in their eyes.

This is exactly what an investor hopes to see from workers at the new plant. Dedication.

 

[Usain]

This guy does a very detailed breakdown of why Sandy Munro was completely wrong about FLIR and points out how Alex/E For Electric used Sandy's statements to spread more FUD.

I really didn't have a problem with Alex's video. Sandy had an interesting perspective on FLIR. It's OK to post a video of someone with a different point of view.

But Sandy is a hardware guy. And the bulk of self-driving is a software problem.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Would all sales recorded in Louisiana and shipped to Texas be subject to Louisiana sales tax ("Louisiana sales tax details The Louisiana (LA) state sales tax rate is currently 4.45%. Depending on local municipalities, the total tax rate can be as high as 11.45%")?
How would the Louisiana Nexus impact Texas sales tax?

No, internet sales are taxed according to the buyer's state taxes.

 

[MartinAustin]

I'd like to see Tesla break the law, sell some cars directly in Texas, with Elon handling it personally, and then have him dare them to come arrest him.

It would generate enormous publicity worldwide. I'm sure a lot of the general public don't actually know you can ONLY buy new cars from dealers - BY LAW.

 

[Singuy]

Who’s Tesla’s .com bust equivalent?

Microsoft
Some people argue that Microsoft was the cause of the .com bubble..just like how Tesla caused the..."innovation" bubble

 

[JoRoMo]

If you think Tesla and Elon can chose to build a multi-billion dollar plant in Texas, a state that they already couldn't do direct sales in, without understanding the implications of that direct sales ban on local sales, well, then I am speechless. It's a gross under-estimation of who Tesla is.

That said, even if I thought Tesla would never sell another car to a Texas resident, ever again, I would still invest in TSLA to the same degree. Yes, this is a big nothing-burger in the bigger picture. And that's not even how this will play out because you cannot stop an idea whose time has come. The relevant part of this discussion for an investor is learning how to parse and process information in an intelligent manner. When I see misperceptions repeated, I don't like to let them stand. Because, before you know it, people have constructed a fantasy understanding of the world, one that doesn't make sense on any level, except to the people holding the misperceptions. One misunderstanding leads to another. the only reason I respond is to because it serves no one to parse information in an irrational way. It's a bad habit many people have.

There is a reason Tesla sales in Texas happen before the car crosses the state line. The buyer of a Tesla in Texas already owns the car as it crosses into Texas' jurisdiction and that makes the new owner the importer of the car, not the manufacturer. If the car and the buyer are already in Texas, it cannot be construed as a sale that took place in another state. Elon knows this. I don't like to see people using weak thinking to make up alternate realities. Not because the specific point is so important but because it leads to other errors in thinking and investing in general requires rigorous and clear thinking. As Elon said, the goal is to be less wrong.

Agree. If indeed you are correct…

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is not news to observant viewers of the drone videos. A week or two ago, we could see very active foundation work on a sizeable expansion of the stamping section.

The drone videos are wonderful, but this is separate news. It is a report based on a walking tour inside the Body Line building, where a first body line was already operational, and a 2nd body line was under construction.

Further, it was reported that 2 Gigapresses are operational currently, a 3rd Gigapress installation was ~70% complete, and a 4th Gigapress was ~50% installed. This is big news, as it speaks to the pace of the production ramp toward the nameplate capacity of 500K/yr.

I will speculate futher here (my opinion only), and say that it is this 2nd line that will be the first to use 4680 Structural Bty Packs. That allows Tesla to continue production with the 5K/wk imported 2170 LG pack supply until such time as 4680 production is ramped. Then, once the 2nd line is running with structual packs, the 1st line can go down for 3-4 weeks to convert to structural packs, while avoiding a temporary decrease in production (this is where my opinion differs from certain Tesla Tweeters).

Then when production resumes from the upgraded 1st line, we'll get a nifty 2x step-up in production, all of which are the same spec cars. Simple, elegant, consumer-friendly. Investor friendly too.

Again from the video, Tesla would say nothing more definative about the timeline for 4680 cell production than "a couple of months", but they did share that bty cell manufacturing equipment was currently being installed, and there was not yet any test cell production.

Final point re ultimate capacity. The Bty Plant is rated at 50 GWh/yr nameplate capacity. Even if Giga Berlin were to build 100% LR/P models (no SR+), each with an 80KWh bty pack, that's enough cell capacity for 625K LR/P Model Y cars to be produced per year. That implies about 6,450 cars/line/week capacity (based on 2 lines and 339 workdays per year. So, 500K/yr (about 80% of max run rate) seems like a good FLOOR for annual production from Phase 1 (Model Y) at Giga Berlin.

None of the above includes the inevitable LFP versions, which I expect will eventually approach 2/3rds of overall Tesla production. I expect Tesla will simply build more lines, and other Models at Giga Berlin, but (of course) lower-cost Models will use almost exclusively LFP chemistry (iron vs nickel).

Nice rampup plan, Tesla!

Cheers!

 

[Beltsbear]

Considering logistics for Tesla delivering to Texas from GigaTexas, the Kickapoo reservation is 200 miles from the factory.

Though, Thackerville, OK could be another good choice at 246 miles as it is nearer to population centers and located on an Interstate highway.

So, load a truck with Texas-bound deliveries and drive to Thackerville. Park the truck there until the sale is processed, then move the truck to the delivery point.

Houston and San Antonio are each about 300 miles from Thackerville for a total of ~550 miles from factory to delivery. Not too bad compared to delivery from Freemont.

Likewise, there could easily be multiple staging areas, roughly one at each of the cardinal points. Thackerville (serving DFW), Kickapoo reservation (serving Austin/San Antonio), Alabama-Couchata reservation (serving Houston), and maybe a New Mexico location if warranted.

This just doesn't seem like too much of a logistics issue, and the legislative side will sort itself out as the Dealer Association moseys toward extinction in pace with the demise of ICE and their power over lawmaking wanes.

You know most of these reservations are on the edges of Texas anyhow. So it is not saving much vs going the extra distance to be just outside of TX anyhow. It would be great if something could be worked out, but its not like they give a great advantage.

 

[StealthP3D]

Agree. If indeed you are correct…

Well then, I agree with you. But only if you are correct.

 

[pitabun]

I'm surprised there isn't an online petition to change this. With the popularity of Tesla, especially now with the Ukraine crisis, it's the perfect time to demand change.

 

[elasalle]

Considering logistics for Tesla delivering to Texas from GigaTexas, the Kickapoo reservation is 200 miles from the factory.

Though, Thackerville, OK could be another good choice at 246 miles as it is nearer to population centers and located on an Interstate highway.

So, load a truck with Texas-bound deliveries and drive to Thackerville. Park the truck there until the sale is processed, then move the truck to the delivery point.

Houston and San Antonio are each about 300 miles from Thackerville for a total of ~550 miles from factory to delivery. Not too bad compared to delivery from Freemont.

Likewise, there could easily be multiple staging areas, roughly one at each of the cardinal points. Thackerville (serving DFW), Kickapoo reservation (serving Austin/San Antonio), Alabama-Couchata reservation (serving Houston), and maybe a New Mexico location if warranted.

This just doesn't seem like too much of a logistics issue, and the legislative side will sort itself out as the Dealer Association moseys toward extinction in pace with the demise of ICE and their power over lawmaking wanes.

2 ways how casinos operate ..

1.reservation
2.boats on the river let's go with option 2 on the Colorado river

 

[Skryll]

Well, there's been an issue with this in 2022.x.x software. Maybe it's been fixed already, but I've witnessed it. At least one owner I know reversed his Model 3 into a post because the rear view camera was displaying a cached image for several seconds when he put it in reverse.

Yeah I have similar issues with 2018 model 3 RWD and was hoping wire harness recall would fix that, h by it they don't have the parts this month. If software helps I am excited to get that sooner