Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

If you want to talk about making Tesla "classier", they should give a small jar of Grey Poupon to encourage people to opt out. That way, when a Bently pulls up next to a Tesla at a red light and the distinguished looking gentleman in the back seat says, "Pardon me, do you have any Grey Poupon?", you can say "Why yes, of course" and just hand them the whole jar as if there is plenty more where that came from.

See? Instant classiness!

I support this and I think Elon would too.

 

[Usain]

As someone with a Model 3 on order, I hate this decision to ditch the portable charger.

But as a Tesla investor. I'm loving it. Let's do some napkin math with round numbers and some guesswork for 2023:

Portable charger unit cost to Tesla: $100
2023 deliveries: 2 million
Shares outstanding: 1 billion
Tesla saves $200,000,000 ($0.20 per share)

But now assume 50% of customers buy the portable charger at checkout. That nets Tesla an extra $100 profit per car on 1 million cars (50% of 2 million).

So now we have $200,000,000 + $100,000,000 = $300,000,000 ($0.30 per share)

Now assume that with 100 million less portable chargers built, Tesla can use those precious chips to make 5% extra cars (100,000).
Average selling price: $60,000
Profit margin: 30%
Extra profit: 100,000 x 60,000 x 0.30 = $1,800,000,000

So now we have $1,800,000,000 + $200,000,000 + $100,00,00 = $2,100,000,000 ($2.10 per share)

Is my math right?

If so, based on my extra shareholder equity, I've made a lot more than I need to buy a charger for my Model 3.

 

[Cult Member]

I think your post is misleading starting with your closing statement:

Having a NEMA 14-50 outlet does not require you to hire an electrician if you don't buy a third party charger. You have two other options:

1) If you are going to use an inefficient wall outlet to charge from, you can just as easily charge from the Mobile Connector. Electrician not needed.
2) You don't need to hire an electrician to convert an outlet to a hard wired Wall Connector. It's super simple.

If you drive a Tesla, why would you install a J1772 charger that required you to add an adapter (two more points of resistance) to every amp that ever flows from your charge point into your car? It makes no sense. You would only need to buy the Tesla to J1772 adapter if you bought a non-Tesla and the adapter, should you need it only costs $160 and allows you avoid paying $700-$1000 or more for J1772 48 amp charge solution. Hint: Don't buy the $399 Emporia EV charger - it's not even UL certified. The Tesla Wall Connector is only $495 and accommodates wiring entry from any direction.

I suspect the biggest difference we have is you think legacy auto or other EV startups are going be making compelling EV's at compelling price points any day now and they will actually be widely available. While that would be nice in an ideal world, we live in the world we have, not in the one we want. I also see EV charging infrastructure as something that goes with the residence, not something you take with you when you move. Install it once, do it right and be done with it.

WC, MC or J1772 - as an European investor the only thing that is for interest: Are the markets open in US on Monday or do we have to wait one more day for real action?
'Ostermontag' is a public holiday in Germany.

 

[Buckminster]

As someone with an Model 3 on order, I hate this decision to ditch the portable charger.

But as a Tesla investor. I'm loving it. Let's do some napkin math with round numbers and some guesswork for 2023:

Portable charger unit cost to Tesla: $100
2023 deliveries: 2 million
Shares outstanding: 1 billion
Tesla saves $200,000,000 ($0.20 per share)

But now assume 50% of customers buy the portable charger at checkout. That nets Tesla an extra $100 profit per car on 1 million cars (50% of 2 million).

So now we have $200,000,000 + $100,000,000 = $300,000,000 ($0.30 per share)

Now assume that with 100 million less portable chargers built, Tesla can use those precious chips to make 5% extra cars (100,000).
Average selling price: $60,000
Profit margin: 30%
Extra profit: 100,000 x 60,000 x 0.30 = $1,800,000,000

So now we have $1,800,000,000 + $200,000,000 + $100,00,00 = $2,100,000,000 ($2.10 per share)

Is my math right?

If so, based on my extra shareholder equity, I've made a lot more than I need to buy a charger for my Model 3.

A little exuberant. And that is coming from the $375T market cap guy...

 

[2daMoon]

Isn't there a chance we lose everything? Isn't that why we're not supposed to put all of our eggs in one basket? There must be some risk putting everything in TSLA, or everyone would do it. It's already been the investment of a lifetime. I just hope greed doesn't get the best of me. If we are all hodling one of the all time best investments, I hope we all choose to make the world a better place with our good fortune.

Isn't the mere fact that everyone isn't doing this the most significant indicator we are likely on the right track to catch the train to Teslanaire Station?

That, plus, y'know, fundementals.

 

[dhanson865]

It baffles me why anyone would think Tesla would go from building two Gigafactories at a time to only adding one more in total in the next 4 years.

4 years seems excessive but I can see why they would slow down on adding new sites short term.

They need to expand at

* Fremont (okay maybe it's more a layout / rebuild than expand)
* Sparks (plenty of space there)
* Shanghai (still talk of expansion there)
* Austin (plenty of space there, also the existing facility has a dark section that hasn't come on line yet)
* Berlin (plenty of space there)

they have reason to slow the expansion or forces are slowing the expansion at

* Sparks
* Shanghai
* Berlin (both regional policies, and the normal ramping process)
* Austin (the normal ramping process)

So even if they only work on existing sites they could be working on 3-5 locations at a time right now.

Add another site before Austin and Berlin have finished the first real ramp up and you are already at a high pace compared to when they started 2 Gigafactories at the same time.

Then when Austin or Berlin are at a stable place you can decide between using some of that crew to expand at that location or moving to a new Gigafactory.

You'd expect ground breakings to start once the ramp at either Austin or Berlin looks solid and another ground breaking or two after both are at a steady state.

By 2027 I'd expect Shanghai, Austin, and Fremont expansions/reworks done plus 3 more new sites at a minimum if things remain constrained. If things free up a bit I'd expect 4 or 5 new sites by 2027 (depending on if he was thinking beginning or end of 2027). Pretty much one new Gigafactory location per year with overlapping ramps and expansions.

 

[Usain]

I think your post is misleading starting with your closing statement:

Having a NEMA 14-50 outlet does not require you to hire an electrician if you don't buy a third party charger. You have two other options:

1) If you are going to use an inefficient wall outlet to charge from, you can just as easily charge from the Mobile Connector. Electrician not needed.
2) You don't need to hire an electrician to convert an outlet to a hard wired Wall Connector. It's super simple.

If you drive a Tesla, why would you install a J1772 charger that required you to add an adapter (two more points of resistance) to every amp that ever flows from your charge point into your car? It makes no sense. You would only need to buy the Tesla to J1772 adapter if you bought a non-Tesla and the adapter, should you need it only costs $160 and allows you avoid paying $700-$1000 or more for J1772 48 amp charge solution. Hint: Don't buy the $399 Emporia EV charger - it's not even UL certified. The Tesla Wall Connector is only $495 and accommodates wiring entry from any direction.

I suspect the biggest difference we have is you think legacy auto or other EV startups are going be making compelling EV's at compelling price points any day now and they will actually be widely available. While that would be nice in an ideal world, we live in the world we have, not in the one we want. I also see EV charging infrastructure as something that goes with the residence, not something you take with you when you move. Install it once, do it right and be done with it.

I agree. You do have many more options than the ones I listed. I was just responding to the previous post.

The previous post said you might have a goal of charging J1772 cars. In that case you are better off getting the J1772 charger and using the Tesla adapter.

I don't know why you would want to convert your NEMA 14-50 outlet to be hardwired to the Tesla charger. If you want a wall charger, it's a lot easier and cleaner to just get a 40 amp J1772 wall charger with a plug.

I don't buy the resistance argument. I'd need to see some proof from a pro before I believe that it makes that much difference in electricity cost or charging time.

As I said, you do need to do your homework before getting a J1772. There are many very high quality J1772 wall chargers at competitive prices. But like you warned us, there are also some terrible ones. So you have to be careful.

I don't think Tesla will own 80% of the EV market in the future. I think it's 50% tops. But hey, I'll be very happy if you are right.

 

[Tim S]

WC, MC or J1772 - as an European investor the only thing that is for interest: Are the markets open in US on Monday or do we have to wait one more day for real action?
'Ostermontag' is a public holiday in Germany.

The US markets are open tomorrow. It's not a holiday here.

 

[mongo]

The US markets are open tomorrow. It's not a holiday here.

Sure it is, first day of earnings week.

 

[PeterJA]

To quote a vey successful multi-billionaire investor:

“Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.” - Warren Buffett

Sadly, I think I'm done with ARK Invest.

Eighteen months ago, I put a small percentage of my net worth into ARKF (Fintech Innovation) and ARKG (Genomic Revolution) as an emergency fund in case Tesla crashed to zero (which seems even more unlikely now). Within 6 months, both funds were up about 50%, but then dropped again, and the tech selloff this year has them down 30% from what I paid. But that's not why I'm giving up.

My thesis for investing was this: ARK was smart enough to recognize Tesla's potential, so maybe they are similarly smart about their stock picks in fintech and genomics. However, their new report on Tesla has destroyed my confidence in them. Their price targets are fine (way up), but are based on business forecasts so bizarre and contrary to Tesla's stated plans that I wonder what ARK is smoking. The Tesla Economist explains this well:

So now I need a different liquid asset for my emergency fund, preferably inflation-resistant and uncorrelated with TSLA. Or maybe Tesla is getting diversified enough to make further diworsification unnecessary. I welcome suggestions.

 

[Stone_Watcher]

I welcome suggestions.

I too, have lost my conviction in ARK but plan to let it ride. My investments in ARK funds account for <%1 of my assets. I don’t mind moonshot ideas but I have a 60+ year time horizon, so I continue to hold. Some of these companies contained in their funds will, without a doubt, change the world in profound ways.

To answer your question, it may be prudent to put a small percentage of your assets into Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Tesla deemed this to be the case and I do not pretend to know more than they do. I have know about Bitcoin for many years and even mined some Dogecoin back in the early days. I did not acquire any BTC until the news broke that Tesla had done so. This lead me to Michael Saylor and the rest of the bitcoin Community. At the risk of going to far off topic, even for the weekend, I’ll end it. *laser eyes*

 

[bkp_duke]

I recently moved to a brand new house in a young town in which every home garage comes with a NEMA 14-50 electrical outlet. When my Model 3 was delivered early last month, it came with a charging kit in the trunk. But that did not include a NEMA 14-50 adapter, which Tesla stopped providing as part of the charging kit some time ago. Since my local Tesla store did not have the NEMA 14-50 adapter, I had to purchase it online for $45 from Tesla and wait for FedEx delivery.

Tesla car owners in my town have no real need for a Wall Connector. As more new home garages are built with Level 2 electrical outlets, the need for a charging kit and Level 2 adapters grows. Let's see how Tesla eventually reacts.

Wall charger charges up to 50% faster than the UMC kit (48A vs. 32A). For some people, this is a very important distinction.

 

[capster]

By the way, I've just last night finished a 900-mile run from Park City, UT rescuing my belovèd vintage LandCruiser (FJ62) from a 3 1/2-yr stay there, and was utterly pummeled by blizzard conditions not just through the Blue Mts (not completely unexpected), but also right down at 120' AMSL along the lower Columbia River which definitely is NOT expected in the 3rd week of April. Blasting rain combined with blasting snow at the same time, accompanied by strong lightning and strong winds.....bizarre!
And yes: my tarped load made it just fine

An oscillating non-linear dynamical system—such as the climate system—will exhibit ’bizarre’ transients during a phase change, aka Hopf bifurcation, between one stable oscillatory regime and another.

Observations such as yours and the recent simultaneous Arctic and Antarctic extreme heat events are quite worrisome.

 

[Buckminster]

ARK are normal people. Only people attempt to value TSLA fully. I should know.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Wall charger charges up to 50% faster than the UMC kit (48A vs. 32A). For some people, this is a very important distinction.

The Gen1 UMC, which hasn't been sold for a few years now, could deliver 40A. I don't remember now why they lowered the max amperage when they moved from Gen1 to Gen2. I still have one, it's the one that permanently is attached by my NEMA 14-50 outlet in my garage. The Gen2 UMC which came with my 3 lives permanently in the trunk for emergencies and travel.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Isn't there a chance we lose everything? Isn't that why we're not supposed to put all of our eggs in one basket? There must be some risk putting everything in TSLA, or everyone would do it. It's already been the investment of a lifetime. I just hope greed doesn't get the best of me. If we are all hodling one of the all time best investments, I hope we all choose to make the world a better place with our good fortune.

If you hope for status quo, why not just cash out now and set up a monster CD ladder?

 

[PeterJA]

ARK are normal people. Only people attempt to value TSLA fully. I should know.

I'm not so sure. No value for Tesla Energy or Semi, but forecasting a $7k Tesla car seems pretty crazy.

 

[StealthP3D]

I agree. You do have many more options than the ones I listed. I was just responding to the previous post.

The previous post said you might have a goal of charging J1772 cars. In that case you are better off getting the J1772 charger and using the Tesla adapter.

I don't know why you would want to convert your NEMA 14-50 outlet to be hardwired to the Tesla charger. If you want a wall charger, it's a lot easier and cleaner to just get a 40 amp J1772 wall charger with a plug.

I don't buy the resistance argument. I'd need to see some proof from a pro before I believe that it makes that much difference in electricity cost or charging time.

As I said, you do need to do your homework before getting a J1772. There are many very high quality J1772 wall chargers at competitive prices. But like you warned us, there are also some terrible ones. So you have to be careful.

I don't think Tesla will own 80% of the EV market in the future. I think it's 50% tops. But hey, I'll be very happy if you are right.

Maybe you haven't kept up - in the US, Tesla already owns over 70% of all BEV sales.

Name one 48 amp wall charger that compares favorably to the Tesla unit. I haven't seen one. The reason I like the higher powered ones besides their higher charging efficiency is they are more versatile. Say you need to charge two vehicles using only one unit. In a pinch that's possible if you have enough charging speed. Also, I never know when my utility might implement time of use charging. A faster charge provides more versatility when it comes to making best use of the cheapest rates. The arrival of the 500 plus mile Cybertruck is going to amplify all of these advantages, especially the efficiency advantage.

As to the resistance of a typical NEMA 14-50 outlet and plug, yes, it's very real, even after only two years the oxidation has made it worse. The outlet adds more resistance than a typical run of copper cable and with the number of hours the typical EV spends charging, it adds up. Fleetwide the losses are huge. Study up on resistive losses and you will see that it's actually a big deal as EV's become the standard form of transport. Wall outlets to charge electric vehicles will look very dated in 10 years time.

I'm probably not going to change your mind but my intention was to educate others and show how Tesla thinks about efficiency. Tesla doesn't care about any individual's consumption, they care about the fleetwide average.

 

[jerry33]

I agree. You do have many more options than the ones I listed. I was just responding to the previous post.

The previous post said you might have a goal of charging J1772 cars. In that case you are better off getting the J1772 charger and using the Tesla adapter.

I don't know why you would want to convert your NEMA 14-50 outlet to be hardwired to the Tesla charger. If you want a wall charger, it's a lot easier and cleaner to just get a 40 amp J1772 wall charger with a plug.

I don't buy the resistance argument. I'd need to see some proof from a pro before I believe that it makes that much difference in electricity cost or charging time.

As I said, you do need to do your homework before getting a J1772. There are many very high quality J1772 wall chargers at competitive prices. But like you warned us, there are also some terrible ones. So you have to be careful.

I don't think Tesla will own 80% of the EV market in the future. I think it's 50% tops. But hey, I'll be very happy if you are right.

Reply in off-topic galore thread.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tsk tsk someone at VW got aggressive with the >>

Amazing firmware. Competition is coming folks.