ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Have been preparing for this:
Congrats!
Congrats!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
jhm
Well-Known Member
I see. You're going out past 2040 to get to 300 TWh cumulative. The hard thing is getting to 300TWh by 2040.I've previously (over several years now since Battery Day) published a few possible production goal tables. I'll link here to my most recent one (made after the TED2022 interview), and the content myself to wait for "Master Plan Part 3":
Artful Dodger Post #334,587 (Mon, Apr 18, 2022)
Cheers to the Longs!
A gentler ramp is just adding 1 TWh capacity each year. Adding the first TWh in one year is the hard part, but if that were to come by next year, 300 TWh cumulative could be reached in 24 years (2046). See table below.
Basically, Tesla just needs to add capacity as quickly as possible. In the long run, total battery production (all producers) will reach about 30TWh annual capacity which will be enough to quickly reach and sustain 300TWh or more in use. I hope we can get to 30TWh/year by 2040. That would be best both for the climate and the global economy. But even if we get to 30TWh/year as late as 2050, I think still have a very good chance of hitting net zero emissions by 2050.
BTW, cumulative PV solar installation needs to reach about 5.2TW by 2030 to stay on track for 1.5C. We just passed the 1TW mark. We can get to 5.2TW by 2030 by continuing to grow the installed base 20% each year. This means exiting the decade at 1TW PV install run rate. It'd be very nice to pair this with 4 TWh of batteries. Additionally in 2030, we'll need 8 to 10 TWh of batteries for BEVs to be 100% of the new car market. So we really ought reaching for upwards of 14TWh battery capacity by 2030. The ramp below is a tad slow coming in at 8 TWh in 2030.
| Annual | Cumulative | |
2023 | 1 | 1 |
2024 | 2 | 3 |
2025 | 3 | 6 |
2026 | 4 | 10 |
2027 | 5 | 15 |
2028 | 6 | 21 |
2029 | 7 | 28 |
2030 | 8 | 36 |
2031 | 9 | 45 |
2032 | 10 | 55 |
2033 | 11 | 66 |
2034 | 12 | 78 |
2035 | 13 | 91 |
2036 | 14 | 105 |
2037 | 15 | 120 |
2038 | 16 | 136 |
2039 | 17 | 153 |
2040 | 18 | 171 |
2041 | 19 | 190 |
2042 | 20 | 210 |
2043 | 21 | 231 |
2044 | 22 | 253 |
2045 | 23 | 276 |
2046 | 24 | 300 |
2047 | 25 | 325 |
2048 | 26 | 351 |
2049 | 27 | 378 |
2050 | 28 | 406 |
One more thing, I really don't think there is any risk of overbuilding the battery supply chain in the next 10 years. Even if production hit 30TWh in 2032, the learning curve cost reductions would be enormous, something 25% cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production. Utilities can quickly absorb any surplus to the supply that the EV market might need. So I'm entirely supportive of Tesla being super aggressive in this ramp up. I'd be happy to see all free cash flow be funneled in building up the battery supply.
Thank me for having my Tesla Model 3 delivered in March with perpetual FSD.
Ever have a moment where you read an earnings report and ... you're in awe? You just take a step back and sit there in agape.
This is beautiful. Also, the photos at the end are incredible.
This is beautiful. Also, the photos at the end are incredible.
I can't even believe that this is possible...
Global vehicle inventory (days of supply) = 3 days, let that sink in....
(in Q4 it was 4)
Global vehicle inventory (days of supply) = 3 days, let that sink in....
(in Q4 it was 4)
This earnings report gives me hope that climate change is actually going to be averted.
The Accountant
Active Member
I missed mainly on the Regulatory Credits and strong Lease Revenues:
Yes. I guess the FSD take rate made the day even more bullish than I calculated. Thanks Stol LatThank me for having my Tesla Model 3 delivered in March with perpetual FSD.
Super-money
Wow. This report was just win after win after win. Q1 was a great quarter for the company when competition is still struggling. Q2 will be less fun for Tesla and all other companies doing business in Shanghai, but this report should give an indication how good Q3 and Q4 will be once things are sorted out in Shanghai.
+ reduced cost (COGS) per vehicle despite inflationary pressures
Operating margins up 14% YoY. That’s the insane number. Q1 is not even supposed to be a good quarter like Q4. Just wait until Q4 2022, that’s when Wallstreet will finally understand what should have been obvious years ago.
+ reduced cost (COGS) per vehicle despite inflationary pressures
Operating margins up 14% YoY. That’s the insane number. Q1 is not even supposed to be a good quarter like Q4. Just wait until Q4 2022, that’s when Wallstreet will finally understand what should have been obvious years ago.
The Accountant
Active Member
Gordon Johnson and crew will harp on the Regulatory Credits but it's still a beat without them.
The good news is that the higher Leasing Revenue & Profits appear to be a new trend as cars are coming off lease and Tesla recognizes gains on the sales.
The good news is that the higher Leasing Revenue & Profits appear to be a new trend as cars are coming off lease and Tesla recognizes gains on the sales.
Did the changes Biden Administration EPA reinstated already have an effect in regulatory credit sales?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Financial results are amazing, even better than most of the uber-bull estimates ($2.86/share GAAP, 3.22 non-GAAP profit).
Now the question is: can Elon rattle the cages and scare the investors on the call enough despite the results to cause the SP to tank tomorrow ?
Looks very difficult, but Elon is extremely talented, so I would not rule it out yet...
With results like this, I really don't care what the share price does tomorrow (because there is no way I would sell now for less than $2K/share). The share price simply doesn't matter - it might be behind reality for years to come.
Haven't you ever read Hemmingway? When you've hooked a whopper, you don't lament how long it's going to take to reel him in, you are just pleased you have a whopper on your line and you do everything in your power to not let him get away before you can get him to port! It's not about getting him quickly, it's about playing him out so as to be sure he doesn't get away.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Financial results are amazing, even better than most of the uber-bull estimates ($2.86/share GAAP, 3.22 non-GAAP profit).
Now the question is: can Elon rattle the cages and scare the investors on the call enough despite the results to cause the SP to tank tomorrow ?
Looks very difficult, but Elon is extremely talented, so I would not rule it out yet...
With results like this, I really don't care what the share price does tomorrow (because there is no way I would sell now for less than $2K/share). The share price simply doesn't matter - it might be behind reality for years to come.
Haven't you ever read Hemmingway? When you've hooked a whopper, you don't lament how long it's going to take to reel him in, you are just pleased you have a whopper on your line and you do everything in your power to not let him get away before you can get him to port! It's not about getting him quickly, it's about playing him out so as to be sure he doesn't get away.
Imagine being bearish on this company
I need to seriously go over and adjust my Tesla model in Excel, it's way too conservative and Tesla's financial health is growing much faster than I thought it would.
Which is a good thing for us of course, but DAMN.
Which is a good thing for us of course, but DAMN.
Since you were 95% certain about a blowout quarter, I picked up 10x 1150/1250 lotto spreads expiring Friday.
Wish Tesla SP behaved as well as your prediction
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