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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Very good and not too long article and analysis in Time magazine on Elon Musk.
Take some time and read it. Worth it.

Teaser:
... the lesson of Musk’s career is to take his ambitions seriously. He’s rich not because he gamed the system but because he’s a genius who uses the incredible force of his will to mobilize resources to pursue his ideas. He’s devoted himself to tackling what he views as humanity’s biggest problems, and he has decided, as he put it recently, that “having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization.” Elon Musk has picked the next hard problem he wants to solve. Democracy could depend on whether he succeeds.
 
Hard to see the FED continuing to raise aggressively through the end of the year if this continues for sure. I have always been in the camp that the FED will not get to do what it wants. This market looks to be on life support and they have not even properly begun QT, much less raising interest rates. The market has done a good job of frontrunning, demand destruction has been here for a while.

Could see TSLA at 700 very soon, and the way stocks are being punished... not sure where to call bottom.

I know I am usually a contrarian indicator, but don't feel so hot today. All I can say is glad my use of margin is limited. There is one account however I let myself get a little overextended on. Hope it does not detonate.

GOOG really does not help and I am afraid AMZN will follow with even worse earnings so the macros are definitely hungry right now.

The fed has already started raising interest rates last month. Fed job is to mange economy, not the stock market (Which is often detached from the economy).
 
Lots of good info in the earnings deck, but also lots missing...here's the one graph to rule them all

View attachment 797863
This chart is a bit of an aberration. GM spent the past 2+ quarters cleaning up the previous 5+ years of screw ups. The 2 quarter zero sales is largely due to servicing their battery recall. While that itself says a whole lot about GM, the chart doesn’t really give much useful information about what their future prospects are in the market.

Once LYRIQ deliveries start and Bolt deliveries resume they will recover a bit.

If they were competing against Ford and VW, they might stand a chance. Against Tesla it’s like trying to relight a candle next to a bonfire. Their sales can increase as their actual share declines.
 
In addition to the “normal” market anxiety from Elon’s purchase of Twitter, the ongoing war in Ukraine is a very reasonable giant drag on everything. Think of various ends to the conflict. Some are catastrophic and no end is really on the horizon. It also exacerbates and interferes with climate mitigation. Although Elon has done what he can to help, the problem is ongoing and resolution is out of our hands.
 

Very good and not too long article and analysis in Time magazine on Elon Musk.
Take some time and read it. Worth it.

Teaser:
... the lesson of Musk’s career is to take his ambitions seriously. He’s rich not because he gamed the system but because he’s a genius who uses the incredible force of his will to mobilize resources to pursue his ideas. He’s devoted himself to tackling what he views as humanity’s biggest problems, and he has decided, as he put it recently, that “having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization.” Elon Musk has picked the next hard problem he wants to solve. Democracy could depend on whether he succeeds.
Generally agree, but it still has these little false memes, that burrow into peoples' minds. Like printing "[Musk slimed] a heroic cave diver as a “pedo guy,”" without any added context that it was an in kind retaliation to a unprompted vulgar attack. Also how he "defied local public-health authorities to keep his factories open as the pandemic raged, putting workers at risk" - missing context being that Tesla was the only car maker in the country still forced closed by the decision of a single local level unelected official, and workers could elect to stay at home if concerned. Bothersome narrative building on false premises.
 
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Still it doesn’t change Tesla’s position from a business standpoint. Tesla doesn’t suddenly go bankrupt, they don’t suddenly need a capital raise, they don’t suddenly stop making industry leading margins, they don’t suddenly stop expanding and growing etc…. All the things that the TSLA SP is supposed to be based upon.
Of course, I'm just trying to channel what Mr. Market is thinking, or wants people to think he's thinking.
 
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They're not really your friend?
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It's a 5:1 asset to debt ratio. In the event TSLA dropped 40% he'd need to cover either with more shares, other assets, sell some equity, sell Twitter. If he sold TSLA that would probably have an effect on top of whyever it dropped in the first place.
Interesting question is if the holding company can buy derivatives on TSLA (Musk can't).
Tesla has an insider trading policy that prohibits all of our directors, officers and employees from, among other things, engaging in short sales, hedging or similar transactions designed to decrease the risks associated with holding Tesla securities. This prohibition encompasses transactions in publicly-traded options, such as puts and calls, and other derivative securities with respect to Tesla securities, but not transactions designed to facilitate portfolio diversification, such as broad-based index options, futures or baskets.
 
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Indeed, Elon may have decided to sell some TSLA quickly to pay for TWTR, unlike the recently drawn out selling period to pay taxes. The TSLA covered calls expiring this Friday that I wrote last Friday collapsed to nearly worthless today, so I'll likely be keeping all of the premium, but that hardly compensates for today's TSLA share price loss. Of course if Elon finishes selling, a TSLA rebound could be sharp.
Since I'm not fully versed in the options market couldn't you just buy back those covered calls and close out the position? Pardon my ignorance here.
 
It really doesn't matter if Elon is selling or banks are buying massive put positions. Or selling to hedge as well. Elon is putting a massive but manageable stack of his chips on Twitter, and it seems like it's having an impact on the share price. Or certainly making it easier to push down.

We'll find out when we get official notice or Elon clarifies at some point. I think we covered all the bases, so let's give it a rest.
 
Is there a specific window of time, after earnings, that Elon would be allowed to sell shares? If so, how long is that window open? Clearly, if he's selling shares, this wouldn't be part of a predetermined selling plan, since he just found out yesterday that Twitter accepted his offer.
Now that I have a chance, I looked this up and it appears that Elon would be within the 20 day window post earnings, in which he would be able to sell shares without having a previously approved selling plan. We'll probably find out soon, but I'd bet he sold shares today.
 
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