Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519382189942743043

Earnings and deliveries estimate increasing.

Gary's tweet:

Gary Black on Twitter: "$TSLA Street 2022 earnings ests continue to rise, up +10.8% vs before TSLA 1Q earnings one week ago. 2023 TSLA EPS ests now +9% vs one week ago. 2022 vols now 1,462K +56% vs YA, 2023 vols now 1,985K, +36% vs 2022 ests. https://t.co/ZO6TaZuLXn" / Twitter​

Wall St. current concensus is missing more than an entire "Fremont" worth of production for 2023: (Wall St. has 1,985K or +36% YoY)

• Shanghai: 1.2 M 3/Y
• Berlin: 0.5 M Y
• Texas: 0.5 M Y
• Fremont: 0.5 S3XY:
• 2023 total: 2.7 M

And these figures are conservative, not accounting for any addtional products like Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster. But Wall St. loves to low-ball Tesla's production numbers for the mid-term. It let's them use 'egregiously' low P/E ratios and they can't be called out on them for years. By that time (Jan 2024), they'll have moved on to low-balling Tesla's production for 2025.

Did you notice how a more realistic 2023 est of 2.70M is 36% higher that Wall St. 1,985M est? Yeah, they PURPOSELY take their real research estimate, and divide it by half. That's what they tell retail investors, so they can scam them.

Word.

 

[woodisgood]

I felt great about my leaps % until yesterday at close.

I think we’ll all feel a bit better once we have some clarity on who was selling, and why.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think we’ll all feel a bit better once we have some clarity on who was selling, and why.

Note to self. Every time Elon does a Twitter poll I should liquidate my TSLA investments.

 

[GOVA]

Note to self. Every time Elon does a Twitter poll I should liquidate my TSLA investments.

Note to self, Every time Elon farts, I just stop reading this forum for a month.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla grew revenues 76% in 2021. They grew earnings 665%. Guess what the revenue/earnings ratio was for Q1 2022 over Q1 2021? Revenue growth 80%, earnings growth 657%. Yes the earnings growth will slow down but earnings are going to continue to growth 3X revenue for the next couple years before earnings growth trails to only 2X revenue growth 3-5 years out.

GTHO with all your Tesla earnings growth, and revenue/earnings ratio talk! Don't you know? People in this thread only want to prattle on endlessly about the nature of Truth, and speculate (w/o new information) about binary facts which will be revealed in SEC filings within 48 hours.

/S

Cheers!

P.S. Thanks for moving this thread back on topic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I agree I wouldn’t place large bets on it, and my perception of Wall St. intentions for the stock make me a little nervous about the portion of my portfolio in 2024 LEAPs. But I also don’t think the scenario proposed by Mengy is a certainty either.

Wall St. is easy to predict: they will take the set of actions necessary to result in the highest churn of the stock. Look at the increase in swings in TSLA since Feb 2019.

Wall St. makes their hay when the SP is chopped down suddenly. But then they NEED to let it go back up, so they can rinse'n'repeat. Trade accordingly if you need to.

 

[2daMoon]

WHOO-HOO!!!!!!

We finished in the GREEN!!!!!


/s

 

[Discoducky]

His electric vehicle company isn't they way Elon or any close friend would refer to Tesla. So this is either manufactured or far from a direct quote by way of word of mouth through multiple retellings.

Either way it doesn't give me confidence that Elon said anything of the sort.

They would have said "electronic vehicle company". That's how the cool kids say it.

 

[Ogre]

If people are this thin skinned about Musk's tweets and non-Tesla activities maybe they should invest in BRK. It's done quite well the past few years and aside from checking if he's still alive, Buffet never stresses anyone out.

 

[elasalle]

Tech Macro.

Meta(FB) Beat

• Earnings per share: $2.72 vs $2.56 expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts
• Revenue: $27.91 billion vs $28.2 billion expected, according to Refinitiv

+[TSLA, MSFT, FB]
-[GOOG]

 

[Mengy]

I don't know how you're getting those numbers when it comes to EPS, especially after the most recent earnings. Your math simply doesn't add up. I don't think anyone here is thinking anything higher than 50-60% revenue growth is needed to achieve $25 EPS for 2023, not 2024.

Tesla printed a $2.86 GAAP EPS for Q1. They'll likely repeat that for Q2. Then Q3/Q4 will jump to $3.5-4 GAAP EPS, Q4 will be above $4. That's over $13 GAAP EPS for 2022. If you've been following how Tesla executes on operational leverage, then it becomes very clear and pretty easy to see that Tesla will print over $25 GAAP for 2023........even if revenue growth is only 50-60% for 2023.

Operational leverage has been demonstrated time and time again. Especially over the past 6 straight quarterly earnings. Not sure how you think Tesla will only do $25 EPS GAAP for 2024 when Tesla will be executing on operational leverage of 2 new factories plus expansion of the other 2.

Tesla grew revenues 76% in 2021. They grew earnings 665%. Guess what the revenue/earnings ratio was for Q1 2022 over Q1 2021? Revenue growth 80%, earnings growth 657%. Yes the earnings growth will slow down but earnings are going to continue to growth 3X revenue for the next couple years before earnings growth trails to only 2X revenue growth 3-5 years out.

I'm just more conservative in my growth expectations for Tesla than you are! I expect EPS of $12-$13 for 2022, about $19 for 2023, and around $25 for 2024. If the PE holds high then yes the stock will soar, but if Wall Street keeps bringing the PE down then the stock might go sideways for a bit again.

I think we'll get there a year later than you do, that's all! And of course I'd love it if you get proven right and my hunches are totally too low!

 

[Singuy]

Qcom beat also btw. Looks like Ford's rivian thing didn't bite then in the butt so we may just have some hopes for Amazon.

 

[JRP3]

Why should it be like a marriage?

Seriously, I just bought some stock, don't remember signing up for marriage

 

[MP3Mike]

Qcom beat also btw. Looks like Ford's rivian thing didn't bite then in the butt so we may just have some hopes for Amazon.

How do you figure? They posted a $3.1B loss, because of a $5.4 billion loss on the Rivian holdings. That would seem like a pretty hard bite to me.

Of course, the market doesn't seem to be punishing them for it. (Which actually is sort of reasonable, they had a $2.3B profit on their actual business.)

If only the market rewarded TSLA for the actual Tesla performance, instead of punishing it for who knows what reason.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tech Macro.

Meta(FB) Beat

• Earnings per share: $2.72 vs $2.56 expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts
• Revenue: $27.91 billion vs $28.2 billion expected, according to Refinitiv

+[TSLA, MSFT, FB]
-[GOOG]

Things that make TSLA go up : strong earnings from other companies
Things that don't make TSLA go up : strong earnings from Tesla

 

[Singuy]

Tdoc didn't do well. Cathie Wood is just guessing at this point.

I believe there's a higher risk of arkk selling Tesla tomorrow to quadruple down on tdoc than Elon selling.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm just more conservative in my growth expectations for Tesla than you are! I expect EPS of $12-$13 for 2022, about $19 for 2023, and around $25 for 2024. If the PE holds high then yes the stock will soar, but if Wall Street keeps bringing the PE down then the stock might go sideways for a bit again.

I think we'll get there a year later than you do, that's all!

I completely understand being conservative and it's very much fair to be conservative, but my point was that your math/numbers are not logical/sound

For Tesla to only do $19 GAAP EPS for 2023, it would mean you think Tesla will only grow revenue by 25% or so from 2022 to 2023. It's been proven by Tesla since 2020 that operational leverage means they will grow earnings exponentially faster than revenue growth. This was demonstrated from 2020 to 2021 with Giga Shanghai.

The same effect will happen from 2022 to 2023 with Berlin/Austin. Once production levels are up to a point where it covers cost of running those two factories and things like depreciation/amortization, then with each new increase in production levels, gross profits go disproportionally to net/operating profits. Until Tesla decides to stop opening up new Gigafactories AND reaches total maximum output of all of their factories......then earnings growth will be higher than revenue growth. It's the very basics of operational leverage.

Considering Tesla is also expanding Shanghai and Fremont this year and into next year, there could be even more upside to the $25 GAAP EPS for 2023 since that additional production output will come with very little operating expense increase.

 

[Singuy]

How do you figure? They posted a $3.1B loss, because of a $5.4 billion loss on the Rivian holdings. That would seem like a pretty hard bite to me.

Of course, the market doesn't seem to be punishing them for it. (Which actually is sort of reasonable, they had a $2.3B profit on their actual business.)

If only the market rewarded TSLA for the actual Tesla performance, instead of punishing it for who knows what reason.

Yes, I am just talking about market reactions which looks like no one cares. So with Amazon maybe they also don't care is all I am saying. As in how material to the business rivian has cause either companies I don't really care.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Qcom beat also btw. Looks like Ford's rivian thing didn't bite then in the butt so we may just have some hopes for Amazon.

No it's there. Under their GAAP Earnings metrics. Negative 9% net income margin. Loss of .78 EPS

Difference is Wall St completely ignores it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes, I am just talking about market reactions which looks like no one cares. So with Amazon maybe they also don't care is all I am saying. As in how material to the business rivian has cause either companies I don't really care.

It just really goes to show exactly how Wall St media portrays what they want. Facts are secondary.

The real metrics they don't care to compare which is that every metric for Ford, revenue, EBIT, FCF, margins, income, etc.....are down YoY.