Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[S3XY]

So, dealing with a power outage here with a cell phone battery under 30%. What to do? Hop in your Model 3 in the garage with a glass of wine, plug in your cell to charge it up, listen to Slacker and read TMC on the center display. Try doing that in your ICE!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

All I have to say about that is that once we rise above $300, the first person to say that we'll never see $300 again--again--is either getting a permaban from Lord Venitari or else I'm taking a nice relaxing road trip in which I hunt them down.

Well, better saying that then than now...

 

[ls7corvete]

So, dealing with a power outage here with a cell phone battery under 30%. What to do? Hop in your Model 3 in the garage with a glass of wine, plug in your cell to charge it up, listen to Slacker and read TMC on the center display. Try doing that in your ICE!

I mean, ICE just has to open the door.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

All I have to say about that is that once we rise above $300, the first person to say that we'll never see $300 again--again--is either getting a permaban from Lord Venitari or else I'm taking a nice relaxing road trip in which I hunt them down.

Yup, that's right up there with the term "short squeeze". If you use it you're on the short list for a visit from Vinnie who will "make you an offer you can't refuse."

Dan

 

[MP3Mike]

This time it ain't gonna close if they don't tender.

Is it possible that the institutions that own MXWL are waiting for the very end of the extensions so they can get more incoming from loaning theirs shares out before they tender their shares?

 

[humbaba]

From what I can see, it’s the same data typically stored in other vehicles(I’ve seen phone book entries and such left over in rental cars before), plus recent vehicle logs.

Of course, this was broadly known years ago, not sure why they’re only reporting on it now.

sure you do: Tesla!

 

[EVNow]

So, dealing with a power outage here with a cell phone battery under 30%. What to do? Hop in your Model 3 in the garage with a glass of wine, plug in your cell to charge it up, listen to Slacker and read TMC on the center display. Try doing that in your ICE!

I wish they can let us connect the car to the home and use the battery like powerwall. We have a few power outages every winter - and it would be really helpful.

IIRC, you can do this with Leaf in Japan.

“Vehicle to Home” Electricity Supply System

 

[EVNow]

All I have to say about that is that once we rise above $300, the first person to say that we'll never see $300 again--again--is either getting a permaban from Lord Venitari or else I'm taking a nice relaxing road trip in which I hunt them down.

The fact is - once TSLA goes above $300, we'll never see $300 again - until we do.

 

[Pras]

Weekend musings.
I am shocked TSLA has again dropped under $300. Today's share price was fist reached back in September 2014. Just think of the progress Tesla has made since then. It can be argued that TSLA was overvalued back in 2014, but certainly not today.
During this latest downtrend I never considered selling even a single share. Thanks in part to FC et all at TMC.
Thanks to Tesla, my family is driving the best car in the World by far, 2nd to none, which just happens to be the safest, most efficient and most ecologically friendly as well.
Curt, don't mean to single you out, but IMHO if you had your MS, MX or M3, I don't think you would have sold part of your TSLA portfolio. Driving is believing.
Investing in TSLA is the smartest decision I have made in the past 30 years. Trying to time the drops is not my game so will leave that for others. I'm in this for the end game. And the end is near for ICE. Investing in Tesla now is like being in a secret society for the advancement of human life, except humans don't know about it, don't know the real Tesla, just the FUD and misleading headlines. That door is opening soon and when Tesla comes out, it is going to be be one awesome party.

My investment strategy: No debt. (including mortgage), No leverage, Ten years to retirement, All-In TSLA, No Stops. Not an advice.
Safe harbours all.
Cheers.

There is a good chance this stock sees $500 in the next 12-24 months.

My estimate is 700k cars x $45K ASP = $31b + $3b other revenue(ignore service) = $34b annual rev x .2 operating margin = 6.8b ebitda x 13 EV to ebitda valuation multiple = 89b - 9b debt = $80b market cap. So this a conservative estimation as it assume lower asp, reasonable car volume and most importantly lower valuation multiple. Let’s see.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla Files Patent Application For Electricity Generation That Bypasses The Grid

I'm more interested in the outcome of this new patent Tesla that has filed for: GEOMETRY OF ROTOR END RING AND STATOR END TURNS

 

[dgodfrey]

Yeah, I'm aware that Toyota is hot on hydrogen. Someone else (sorry, forget who) pointed out that Japan has some nice subsidies there. But I was responding to a post about Toyota's EV plans, which they do (theoretically) have. Premised on a 10-year plan to develop solid state batteries that comes do in 2022 IIRC. That's what I've been responding to.

In terms of a legacy car maker knuckling down and really being serious about EVs -- I think Toyota is capable of doing so. They just lack the will to do so.

It's not just the subsidies in Japan that make FC attractive, California has been duped to offer double ZEV credits for a "fast refueling credit provision" which seems tailor made to benefit FC's and exclude BEV's

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/E...le/documents/2015_ZEV_Fast_Refueling_SRIA.pdf
Seems the same guy wrote those regulations that drafted Germany's new EUR5k subsidy which excludes the Model 3 because it's 1 1/2" too long, because the length of the vehicle has everything to do with it's EVness.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[Artful Dodger]

This seems like a pretty high bar for minimum specs.

It seems to me that any battery technology that matches current battery technology while adding the Fire resistance / Safety category stuff you have listed above would pretty much immediately replace the current technology on that dimension alone. I realize that it's not all that visible to most people, most of the time, but it would be the end of the EV car fires and related stories, and be of big value to the overall adoption of battery technology.

These specs are a pretty straightforward extrapolation of current Li-on cell tech. We'd expect to be halfway to this spec in 6 years anyway simply by extending existing tech (7% per year avg improvement).

If Solid State btys hopes to edge out Li-on (already in mass production) the general rule of thumb applies: 'it needs to be twice as good, or its not worth the trouble'.

Not in the next 6 yrs, anyway. Long-term sure, but humans/civilization generally don't do well with long-term planning. That's why we need innovators like the folks at Tesla.

Cheers!

 

[Steve m]

Certainly not a Tesla-specific problem, but I do see that as a problem. In the event of an accident the owner is not likely to have the opportunity to erase their information. IMO a Tesla solution would be to allow remote triggering of a data purge. Maybe this is already possible, but if so I'm not aware of it.

Personal Data should be encrypted!

 

[Carl Raymond]

That graph just shows how much of the world does it wrong.

ISO 8601 - Wikipedia is the only logical method.

Quite like the Chinese yyyy/mm/dd
Sort by alpha and it sorts chronologically.

 

[Fact Checking]

Very helpful post. Just to clarify,

“That the $35k car generates cash is actually very good news, because both SR+, color and AutoPilot/FSD take-rates are very high according to various trackers:

• SR+ take-rate is higher than 70%”

refers to trackers suggesting that more than 70% of SR+ buyers are adding AP to their orders?

I think this means that 70% of customers buying the SR version also upgrade to SR+ (a great deal for the extra few bucks.

F/C's comment specifies separately that the take-rate on AP is 80% in N. America, 90% in EU.

Also, I've read that Tesla produced an initial batch of 500 SRs, and those may indeed be the only so-equipped Model 3s in Q1.

Sounds like the online order-festival with the openg of SR orders turned into a stampede when Elon announce the impeding 3% price increase for everything above the base SR. Brilliant marketing.

Gonna need 3 wheel barrows to haul away all the cash from SR+/AP/FSD orders at end of Q1. Mabbe need 4, cuz Model Y orders.

Cheers!

Current SR+ take rates in the U.S. and Canada (the only market where SR and SR+ is available) over vanilla SR are probably over 90% (!).

We know this from recent tweets of Tom Randall (author of the Model 3 Bloomberg tracker):

Tom Randall on Twitter

"We also received SR+ VINs from 19 states and provinces in U.S. and Canada."

Tom Randall on Twitter

"Just 2 SR. Loads of SR+"

Tom Randall on Twitter

"I just looked at the survey database. One of the owners noted that Tesla called and upsold them to SR+. I'm trying to connect with the other owner. Regardless, it seems like SR deliveries haven't started in earnest, while SR+ are selling very well."​

I.e. only one vanilla SR VIN was reported, while "loads of" SR+ VINs from 19 states and Canada.

Those are direct VIN reports from owners to Bloomberg.

I.e. terms of ASP, the Q1'19 base price of the Model 3 is probably above $40k: $35k + $2.5k (SR+) + $1.5k (color) + $3k (AutoPilot), where both color and AutoPilot have high take rates.

This means "SR" cash margins are probably higher than 20% already (!). To that come the LR and higher spec models, with probably higher than 30% cash margins.

This is probably why Tesla stopped selling the Medium Range without announcing it: they saw the SR+ take rates and that in Q1 it's already more profitable to sell an optioned SR than a bare-bones MR...

 

[Carl Raymond]

Wip, you are missing my point. Would it not have made better timing for Marketwatch to run their article a week ago, then now after five consecutive days of market gains?

Run it twice? Or is that a typo? ('then' meaning 'than')

 

[2virgule5]

Closer to now, anecdotal data point follow-up on my Monday night order of an LR-RWD (white, black interior, 18'): received VIN by text the following day -(a very high number 313XXX that tops Bloomberg VINs) but no delivery date yet ... Will check when it was manufactured but would not be surprised if in 'March'.

Sooooo, week-end break. Last and final: got a call on Monday that the car won't make it in time (high VIN 313XXX still in California, not even sure it's actually manufactured). No other M3 RWD around, so they 'offered' me to trade-up to an AWD in inventory in a nearby state, with a rebate (about $2,5k). I took it. First time I get a discount on a new Tesla. A friend I referred got a similar deal for an inventory AWD as well this week in Denver CO.

Curious to see which delivery numbers they'll get to. Clearly all along the process they looked busy (replying to email late at night), a Service guy actually delivered the car to my home and that was the 4th time for him that day. By far the fastest delivery paperwork wise, a big improvement vs last time.

 

[Steve m]

It's not just the subsidies in Japan that make FC attractive, California has been duped to offer double ZEV credits for a "fast refueling credit provision" which seems tailor made to benefit FC's and exclude BEV's

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/E...le/documents/2015_ZEV_Fast_Refueling_SRIA.pdf
Seems the same guy wrote those regulations that drafted Germany's new EUR5k subsidy which excludes the Model 3 because it's 1 1/2" too long, because the length of the vehicle has everything to do with it's EVness.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Ah em holding out for cold fusion powered cars.

 

[gene]

So, dealing with a power outage here with a cell phone battery under 30%. What to do? Hop in your Model 3 in the garage with a glass of wine, plug in your cell to charge it up, listen to Slacker and read TMC on the center display. Try doing that in your ICE!

If you have a glass of wine, Romance Mode on the screen is required.

 

[S3XY]

I wish they can let us connect the car to the home and use the battery like powerwall. We have a few power outages every winter - and it would be really helpful.

IIRC, you can do this with Leaf in Japan.

“Vehicle to Home” Electricity Supply System

Me too. I was only down for about 3 hours today (perfectly nice sunny, calm day) but a couple weeks ago we were without power for 20 hours during a wind storm and my basement flooded. Sure would've been nice to have a 75 kWh power backup. But I think the biggest issue for not allowing this is the free supercharging. I know it sounds crazy but you just know there will be people that would charge up their car for free and then backload their house to save money.