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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Indeed. I got the impression from Elon's TED comments that certain banks were threating to recall their revolving line-of-credit facilities if Tesla didn't settle. That's the "working loans" for work-in-progress and inventory capital (therefore the 'LEAST RISKY' part of the business).

I would 100% bet that this is why Tesla has been aggressively paying down all debt with their net profits. Elon doesn't forget, and doesn't like anyone to hold him by the balls like this. He will make sure they can never put him or Tesla in this position again.
 
Indeed. I got the impression from Elon's TED comments that certain banks were threating to recall their revolving line-of-credit facilities if Tesla didn't settle. That's the "working loans" for work-in-progress and inventory capital (therefore the 'LEAST RISKY' part of the business).

Seems to me that 'certain bank' could well have been JPMoargas (Big Carbon Bankers, Inc.), and their brief was to try to kill off this upstart EV company.

Now, JPMoargas will have to get their monies in court (fat chance there, too). This all happened within weeks over Fall 2018, including this (questionable) bank's decision to sell their TSLA derivatives, thereby locking in a loss.

Only outstanding issue is, did JPMoargas trade their derivatives in anticipation of a certain outcome, one which they themselves worked to precipitate?

Loathsome, if true (but we knew that). ;)

Cheers!

This brings up questions for me:

Context: let's say JP Morgan Chase has purview into climate change...because they're one of the largest banks in the world and have a huge energy company dependence in their loans and the investments they make...it's been a long-running and known problem in the world for decades and a century+.

Questions:
1. ...is the path to sustainability clearly in transportation and batteries/solar?
2. Do they have a different view/perspective outside of transportation and batteries/solar that Tesla, specifically, has that they might consider the company a problem rather than a solution?

I see a lot of these startup companies looking into decarbonizing the atmosphere and trying out nuclear. There's a whole host of other ideas now that tesla has proved the market.

3. Is Tesla really the only option as the spearhead of a sustainability transportation and energy future?

Thank you for entertaining these questions, if you do. Just curious.
 
It's my understanding that capacity is the upper bound of production. How could the Fremont factory be running above capacity? Please explain to me where I got it wrong.
You’re being pedantic. Obviously it means it is running at higher output than previously reported or expected capacity.
 
Indeed. I got the impression from Elon's TED comments that certain banks were threating to recall their revolving line-of-credit facilities if Tesla didn't settle. That's the "working loans" for work-in-progress and inventory capital (therefore the 'LEAST RISKY' part of the business).

Seems to me that 'certain bank' could well have been JPMoargas (Big Carbon Bankers, Inc.), and their brief was to try to kill off this upstart EV company.

Now, JPMoargas will have to get their monies in court (fat chance there, too). This all happened within weeks over Fall 2018, including this (questionable) bank's decision to sell their TSLA derivatives, thereby locking in a loss.

Only outstanding issue is, did JPMoargas trade their derivatives in anticipation of a certain outcome, one which they themselves worked to precipitate?

Loathsome, if true (but we knew that). ;)

Cheers!
So, this is the same time period that the bank lawsuit against Tesla covers? The one about the convertible bonds or some such having the value changed?

I can’t keep up anymore. I need to go back and watch previous seasons again.
 
Thanks for that, but then why is Elon so mad at the San Francisco SEC office?

Regardless, my point still stands to @Usain. Hindsight comment. We didn’t know until years later.
Tell me you didn't watch the interview without telling me you didn't watch the interview...

Per Elon, SEC SF was fully aware that he had funding, but proceeded to file the suit anyway. I, also, am super <expletive> at SEC due to filing on Thursday which tanked the stock 14% on Friday, only to have it all settled over the weekend.
 
This brings up questions for me:

Context: let's say JP Morgan Chase has purview into climate change...because they're one of the largest banks in the world and have a huge energy company dependence in their loans and the investments they make...it's been a long-running and known problem in the world for decades and a century+.

Questions:
1. ...is the path to sustainability clearly in transportation and batteries/solar?
2. Do they have a different view/perspective outside of transportation and batteries/solar that Tesla, specifically, has that they might consider the company a problem rather than a solution?

I see a lot of these startup companies looking into decarbonizing the atmosphere and trying out nuclear. There's a whole host of other ideas now that tesla has proved the market.

3. Is Tesla really the only option as the spearhead of a sustainability transportation and energy future?

Thank you for entertaining these questions, if you do. Just curious.
1) Most other solutions take too long to deploy. The onlu other quick to deploy solution would be to have a conventional war that kills off 50-75% of the population. Of course that would wreck civilization as thoroughly as doing nothing, so not an option.
2) Decarbonizing the atmosphere requires energy. Probably a lot of energy.
3) Government is certainly not doing enough. I haven’t seen any examples of other companies that are doing much more than greenwashing. Tesla is working on a plan and is executing it as rapidly as possible.
 
Thanks for that, but then why is Elon so mad at the San Francisco SEC office?

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It's my understanding that capacity is the upper bound of production. How could the Fremont factory be running above capacity? Please explain to me where I got it wrong.
Tesla reports the "capacity" of Fremont at 450.000/year in their reports for endless quarters now. If you take this "benchmark" than they can hit above that rate.
450k was the "initial planned" capacity or so .. not an upper "limit" in the traditional "capacity"-sense where you measure 1 good day & extrapolate to 365/24/7-production without downtime.
 
I have mixed feelings on Karens proposal. On the face of it bitcoin is terrible, it's just a terrible energy hog so she's making a great point. OTOH I don't like shareholder proposals that needlessly constrain the actions of management. Damage is pretty much done and I think even Elon was shocked when he found out just how much energy was being consumed by the coin mining server farms. How/what to do with it is a fair point but what if they come up with a green certified crypto currency? Why constrain management?
It's Kimbal Musk who's come out saying that Tesla's board was very ignorant of the environmental impact of Bitcoin when they made their investment.
Kimbal Musk: Tesla Was 'Very Ignorant' Of Bitcoin's Environmental Impact
He's come out in a more recent interview saying he's violently opposed to crypto on the basis of it's environmental impact. Kimbal Musk: People's obsession with wealth is 'boring'

So Karen's proposal may get some support at board level but then selling it would cause more environmental damage than just holding at this point.
 
I agree its wrong to constrain management in this way. I believe that all transitions are 'noisy' but it seems like the hope is that long-term BTC mining could provide supplemental income for solar when excess energy is produced. This seems unreasonable now but if you trust the likes of Tony Seba we could soon (a decade) has an immense glut of energy - so much so that it does not even make sense to store it because the excess would never be used. The question then becomes: what do you do with unlimited energy? This is just an optimistic interpretation, however with Tesla potentially having access to a glut of stored energy (utility scale batteries + autobidder), perhaps they have a plan.
I wonder how many other folks are like me and see both sides of this argument. I think there is indeed a reasonable argument to be made that "management should not be constrained in running of the company". As the villain in Total Recall (Arnold version) said to an erring minion, "... you don't think. I don't give you enough information to _think_." (paraphrased from memory). In other words, management has WAY more information than even this relatively well-informed forum to properly shape corporate decisions.

And yet... and yet. There is this mission.

Many folks on this forum over the last roller coaster weeks have said "when in doubt, zoom out". Let's zoom out to civilization-survival level. Does it help civilization to survive if we continue burning fossil fuels to solve the Bitcoin algorithm, created by humans, for humans, an algorithm designed by intent to get computationally more expensive (read: power-hungry) over time? What physical problem (food, transportation, etc.) does that actually help solve for us?
And we cannot honestly say "we'll only use renewables" to run these Bitcoin mines. Sure, maybe 10 years from now, and that's a big maybe. In the interim don't we need every solar panel and battery doing something that solves actual problems (offsetting carbon actually needed for food, transportation, etc.)
Right now, fossil fuel plants are literally having their lives extended (even some unshuttered IIRC) just to run this exact algorithm. I've read articles from reputable sources on this and can likely find the links if other folks haven't seen them. It is happening because there is money to be made.

Tesla has shown with all their undertakings that they advance the mission... some things more indirectly (like Insurance) but they absolutely still push the effort forward. This is admirable and is one of the reasons I think of, and treat, this company and investment like no other in my own decades of life. Their adherence to this mission gives me more hope for the future than almost anything in capitalism writ large right now.

Typing all this out lets me realize that this is my problem with "let the board decide". While I think the "100% divest Bitcoin now" option is pretty unsubtle and a hammer where perhaps a wrench (sorry, spanner) will do, setting a direction to divest Bitcoin over time would NOT go amiss, until such time as a huge renewable energy glut exists (may we please get there!)
YMMV of course, but as I understand it, the use Bitcoin in transactions is causing significant harm right now. I have trouble overlooking that.
 

Would anyone happen to know how big of a team you need to install a 1MW or 5MW solar farm? I keep reading that a 1MW solar system could be installed in 2-5 days. I'm wondering how many people it'd take to tackle on huge, singular projects to manufacture these solar farms to power countries.

I see so many articles on land needed and costs, but little in terms of people power to get this done.

Edit: Found it - 4 people, 1 day. How many workers are needed to put up a 1 megawatt solar farm?

Edit x2:

4 Peta Watts annual to power the US
1 MW system = 1.44 Gwh annual produced Link
2,777,778 1MW solar farms installed.

If it takes 4 people, 1 day for 1MW solar farm...then, hiring 10,000 employees would equate to ~3 years to build enough solar farms to power the entire US in perpetuity.

1) Most other solutions take too long to deploy. The onlu other quick to deploy solution would be to have a conventional war that kills off 50-75% of the population. Of course that would wreck civilization as thoroughly as doing nothing, so not an option.
2) Decarbonizing the atmosphere requires energy. Probably a lot of energy.
3) Government is certainly not doing enough. I haven’t seen any examples of other companies that are doing much more than greenwashing. Tesla is working on a plan and is executing it as rapidly as possible.

1) Did the due diligence for solar (above - first quoted post) and just remembered that, makes sense! Just found this, back in 2017 from Stanford about nuclear plants and it's super expensive:


2) I see startups like Sealed and its pretty interesting. Kinda surprised there aren't options to subsidize the cost of heat pumps nationally and globally. Looks like there's direct air capture solutions being tried as well. Wonder if Tesla is going to look into heat pumps too beyond in the car (seen a few discussions here about it).

3) Wish the government was doing more too. I go back to Sealed as an example of a company that's doing a lot and getting growth though. Seems like transportation is heavyweight in terms of implementation to get to a solution. Everything seems like 5 years away for a potential huge drop down in carbon in the atmosphere solution sometime in 2026-2027.
 
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It's a proposal to put it in the ballot. Tesla's management doesn't think it's a valid shareholder proposal and that's being challenged. It will only be voted on if Tesla management is found to be wrong. It may never be voted on. If it is put on the ballot, I will be voting with Tesla's management.
Not so much challenged, but verifying that dropping it due to being out of scope would not be challenged. Tesla asked the SECto tell Tesla if the SEC would come after Tesla if they did not include the proprosal. (does SEC agree enough with board's determination not to make a federal case out of it)

I have mixed feelings on Karens proposal. On the face of it bitcoin is terrible, it's just a terrible energy hog so she's making a great point. OTOH I don't like shareholder proposals that needlessly constrain the actions of management. Damage is pretty much done and I think even Elon was shocked when he found out just how much energy was being consumed by the coin mining server farms. How/what to do with it is a fair point but what if they come up with a green certified crypto currency? Why constrain management?
This is what Tesla is doing in the article I linked to.
Solar + battery powered Bitcoin mining in an area of Texas that lacks interconnection infrastructure. This is a test case of leveraging Bitcoin profit as baseload to subsidise expansion of renewables. Seems reasonable. [In the set of universes where Bitcoin is a thing]
Tesla, Blockstream, Block to Mine Bitcoin Using Solar Power in Texas
 
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Delivery of cars from china....

Tesla/Elon stated in the last few months that the strategy of considering the end of the quarter so as to get the most cars delivered was going to be flattened.
Knowing Tesla, someone looked at the timing of the closing and re-opening of the Shanghai gigafactory as an opportunity to redo the logistics so the flattening is accomplished. or not.
 
When I saw the investment in Corp Debt Instruments, I assumed that these were corporate bonds which would have some risk as rates increase.
Is it possible that they are investing in Corporate Commercial Paper with 2 to 4 weeks of duration? Tesla does not provide any disclosure on these investments. Perhaps they will disclose more information in future filings if the invested amount increases.

By the way, some of their cash is invested in Money Market products.

Tesla is really funny with their money . . . .they invest like my 30 year old son (bitcoin) and like my 91 year old dad (money market accounts) 😁
Yes, very odd. That they have near eliminated non-trade debt is perhaps equally unusual.