Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I have an old 2014 Model S, which had a fairly recent door-handle replacement, when it got the Model X style hardware which does the auto-open when you approach the car with fob in pocket. So I have lived with the old manual system for years and recently experiencing this wonder automation, and I can tell you I HATE it with a passion!
It annoys me every day when it opens the door when I just walk by the car in the garage with NO intention to get into the car.
A few times it opened the door in a parking lot when I stepped back closer to the car after walking away resulting in the door remaining open (not just unlocked) while I went into a store and only noticed the open door when I returned. It turned me into paranoid, I have to double and triple check that the door is closed when I leave the car behind in public place and it forces me to avoid walking close to my car in the garage if I do not want to drive it -- or make sure to take my fob out of my pocket if I need to do something in the garage. It is far more of a bother than a convenience!


I’ve turned off all the auto-door opens in my ‘15 S to save door latch life after having to replace 2 at $450 each 😡
 
There was a big dip in pre-market after this came out, down as low as -2%.

I see this as shorts having a go to push the stock down in the absence of any news combined with this delay. There's also the Bloomberg piece claiming that a share price below $837 would prevent Elon collateralising his $12.5B margin loan for twitter. That kind of article just gives shorts a reason to make mischief.

My expectation would be that the 2022 proxy statement would update the amount of Elon's shares pledged and possibly show the previous pledge/margin loan had been removed after his 10% share sale. If this is the case then there's plenty of shares available to pledge for the twitter loan and they wouldn't be able to force the share price low enough to make a difference. Anyway I'll be glad to see the proxy statement finally released so that this issue along with the split information can send the shorts running for cover.

Edit: Todays 10-K/A filing actually shows Elon has 92.3M shares pledged on 12/31/20 (up from 88.3M). So for now the mischief continues. Hopefully Elon's recent share sales allows a restructure of these pledges so it can remove a potential overhang on the stock.
Nice another unforced error
 
  • Like
Reactions: Max Plaid
Elon has made it to 80m Twitter followers. Incredible acceleration in growth:

Elon has gone from 70m to 80m in 79 days (Jan 13th 22 to today 2nd April 22). Previous was 170 and 116 days.

Like the economy, this is not a zero sum game. With this acceleration, I predict 20Bn followers by the end of the year....
Elon just hit 90m followers on Twitter.

80m to 90m in an incredible 30 days! Buying Twitter will have helped more than a little.

Previous were:

80-90 in 30 days (2 April 22 to 2 May 22)
70-80 in 79 days (Jan 13th 22 to 2nd April 22)
60-70 in 116 days
50-60 in 170 days

Obama is #1 at 132m.

Elon making 100m will be a big news story in a month or so.
 
What do you think is the breakdown of this backlog? Is it mostly auto? this woud be huge. over 5M vehicules?
yes - working out the math gets a large number of potential vehicles in the backlog.
However, the deposits do cover energy products as well as annual service agreements.
There also may be large deposits for the Roadster and Semi.
Some people keep claiming that the Cybertruck backlog exceed 1 million; I'm a bit skeptical about this but who knows? 🤷‍♂️
 
The filing delay is like a ticking time bomb for Shorts. The filing can happen tomorrow, next week, next month.
Tick . . . .Tick . . . .Tick . . .
Really means nothing to the long term value of the stock.

I think we need to be careful in assuming a split even this year.

Step 1 is for shareholders to increase the number of authorized shares which will likely happen this year at the shareholders meeting.

Step 2 the actual split could take time. I think they just want to have the flexibility to do it in the future at some point.
 
Tesla is really funny with their money . . . .they invest like my 30 year old son (bitcoin) and like my 91 year old dad (money market accounts) 😁
This is actually how I think of my investments. 50-70% in indexes/cash and the rest in Tesla.

I never wanted to be all in on one stock and risk my retirement. I think of Tesla as the icing on the cake. If the icing disappears the cake can still be a nice desert. If there is too much you probably need to remove some. It's served me well.
 
I was trying to figure out when we should hear when the meeting will occur.

As it was delayed last year to Oct 7th, we'll get 120 of notice *IF* it occurs earlier

Which is covered by this section:

The “Notice Period” is the period not less than 45 days nor more than 75 days prior to the one-year anniversary of the date on which Tesla mailed its proxy materials to stockholders for the previous year’s annual meeting of stockholders. As a result, the Notice Period for the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders will start on , 2022 and end on , 2022. However, if the date of the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders is advanced by more than 30 days prior to or delayed by more than 60 days after the one-year anniversary of the date of the 2021 Annual Meeting, the Notice Period will instead start 120 days prior to the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and end on the later of (i) 90 days prior to such meeting or (ii) the 10th day following our first public announcement of the date of the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders.
 

My friend sent me this yesterday, and is worried about it. Sounds like it’s totally made up not even close to possible, but I’m not smart enough to debunk it. There’s no way Elon has $140 billion worth of TSLA put up as collateral, right? Is Reddit even worse than Seeking Alpha? Anyone can post any BS they want?
 
Elon is claiming that the SEC knew. He says the SEC was holding a gun to his baby's head. So if the SEC knew, surely there were others who had an idea that Tesla might not make it.

The original poster said Tesla was the least risky investment he ever had. I don't know when he started investing in Tesla. But if it was during the Model 3 ramp, then knowingly or not, he was taking a big risk.

If he's talking about Tesla today, then I agree. The risk is quite low.
No, that’s not what he said. He did not say the SEC knew the extent of the financial situation. They may have had a good idea, but Elon never said it. He said the SEC threatened to have the banks pull their current (at the time) and future funding if he didn’t lie. Elon said he had to lie. The ‘implication’ of his ‘gun to his child’s head’ was that Tesla needed the banks’ support in that moment. At no time was there any mention about the severity of the situation.

Additionally, you’ve now changed the context of your original post by adding in the SEC. You wrote:

Tesla was very risky around 2017. They could have gone bust trying to ramp Model 3. You couldn't be sure they would make it. Now instead of, "Will they make it or not?", it's "Will they grow fast or will the grow really, really, really fast?"

You, me and the rest of us plebes had NO IDEA the precarious financial situation during Model 3 ramp. We only found out years later because Elon told us. Therefore, as I said, your post was a hindsight comment.

I was quite confident in 2017 that Tesla would make it. In hindsight that would have been misguided confidence. Glad I didn’t know. It would have negatively impacted my beauty sleep.
 

My friend sent me this yesterday, and is worried about it. Sounds like it’s totally made up not even close to possible, but I’m not smart enough to debunk it. There’s no way Elon has $140 billion worth of TSLA put up as collateral, right? Is Reddit even worse than Seeking Alpha? Anyone can post any BS they want?

What's missing from the above is that Elon has an additional 93m shares vested from his 2018 CEO Award at a strike price of $70 per share.
When the final tranche (#12) vests, he will have 101.3m shares that he could exercise.

Edit: I believe he can't sell for 3 years after exercising the options but it may be possible to pledge . . .but not sure.
 

My friend sent me this yesterday, and is worried about it. Sounds like it’s totally made up not even close to possible, but I’m not smart enough to debunk it. There’s no way Elon has $140 billion worth of TSLA put up as collateral, right? Is Reddit even worse than Seeking Alpha? Anyone can post any BS they want?

If this get that bad, he could pay a $1B divorce fee, and move on. (Position management)
He did not sign any prenups with twitter, so it's gonna be one expensive divorce ;)

- either way buying TWTR looks like a good decision for others until decision comes out.
 
How do they know how much he has leveraged?
I won't link to the article since I'm not sure if the site is safe.
The comments made about Elon's pledged assets seem like good points.

1651499191896.png
 
No, that’s not what he said. He did not say the SEC knew the extent of the financial situation. They may have had a good idea, but Elon never said it. He said the SEC threatened to have the banks pull their current (at the time) and future funding if he didn’t lie. Elon said he had to lie. The ‘implication’ of his ‘gun to his child’s head’ was that Tesla needed the banks’ support in that moment. At no time was there any mention about the severity of the situation.
That's not what he said either.
The banks told him they would pull their funding if he didn't settle the SEC case.
Minute 28
 
To your point Megapack deposits are very very large.
yes - working out the math gets a large number of potential vehicles in the backlog.
However, the deposits do cover energy products as well as annual service agreements.
There also may be large deposits for the Roadster and Semi.
Some people keep claiming that the Cybertruck backlog exceed 1 million; I'm a bit skeptical about this but who knows? 🤷‍♂️