Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Can someone pop up a link when a replay's available? Gracias.

Sounds like Elon is really at the top of his game and in the zone. Astonishing considering what's going on in the universe. He's just focused and on a rocket to the future.

I'm watching it right now...

 

[WattsHappening]

I still have my CT reservation on the books, even though I doubt I’ll buy one.

I wonder if there’s a way to monetize that?

I made a reservation late in the process (FOMO) but question whether I would buy one also.

But who knows, it may be compelling enough to buy, even if it's way bigger than I would need. I've never imagined having more than two cars between the two of us, but if it's compelling enough, I may bite.

And I predict that many reservations are going to be cancelled once production starts. There are a lot of people who have put in orders for multiple CTs (some have bragged they have dozens on order) with the intention of using them for RoboTaxi service. With Tesla indicating they are going to make a separate RT vehicle, will people still want to purchase fleets of CTs?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Hydrogen: "Volumetric energy density is poor..." <CUT>

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I bought 2 shares toward the end of AH trading on Apr 20 the day 1Q earnings were reported. I had a random $2k in cash in my IRA and figured we may never see $1021 again plus the SP wasn't reacting.....so why not?

3 weeks later they're down 22%. Lol!

 

[Nocturnal]

Argh. When to deploy the bulk of my remaining cash...that's the question. I expected a rally to be bigger than today. Wanted some reserves for possible Q2 earnings slump but it's getting harder to not think that's priced in with the negativity around China.

 

[larmor]

I made a reservation late in the process (FOMO) but question whether I would buy one also.

But who knows, it may be compelling enough to buy, even if it's way bigger than I would need. I've never imagined having more than two cars between the two of us, but if it's compelling enough, I may bite.

And I predict that many reservations are going to be cancelled once production starts. There are a lot of people who have put in orders for multiple CTs (some have bragged they have dozens on order) with the intention of using them for RoboTaxi service. With Tesla indicating they are going to make a separate RT vehicle, will people still want to purchase fleets of CTs?

Just my guess as well, but the CT will be a full size vehicle like a F150 or F250 sized car. Some reservations will not continue d/t practicalities of such a large car. However at that price point there is a huge demand for large pickup trucks-- I'm in Texas and moved from SoCal.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I made a reservation late in the process (FOMO) but question whether I would buy one also.

But who knows, it may be compelling enough to buy, even if it's way bigger than I would need. I've never imagined having more than two cars between the two of us, but if it's compelling enough, I may bite.

And I predict that many reservations are going to be cancelled once production starts. There are a lot of people who have put in orders for multiple CTs (some have bragged they have dozens on order) with the intention of using them for RoboTaxi service. With Tesla indicating they are going to make a separate RT vehicle, will people still want to purchase fleets of CTs?

Guys, don't forget the plan. The plan is to be so stinking rich by the time the CT comes out, we might as well pick one or two up.

 

[Krugerrand]

Looks like the BTC sale shareholder proposal is dead. Hopefully we'll get our proxy materials soon?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1523945240087912450

Drama queen much, Karen?

 

[Ogre]

Guys, don't forget the plan. The plan is to be so stinking rich by the time the CT comes out, we might as well pick one or two up.

Elsewhere there was a discussion about possible changes to Cybertruck pricing and I realized my willingness to spend on the Cybertruck is equal to roughly 69 * SP.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Guys, don't forget the plan. The plan is to be so stinking rich by the time the CT comes out, we might as well pick one or two up.

I plan to buy one, drive it around for a spring/summer, then sell it to a coke dealer in the late fall for more than I paid.

 

[Krugerrand]

Rivian has basically nothing Tesla could use.

Including ex-employees, some of whom stole from Tesla.

Sorry, not sorry. Die Rivian.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I plan to buy one, drive it around for a spring/summer, then sell it to a coke dealer in the late fall for more than I paid.

You mean 'ice cream' truck owner....

 

[Krugerrand]

For those that didn't do so yet, checkout the documentary "The Wall Street Conspiracy"

Amazon.com

It's the biggest financial scam in history, siphoning money from retail investors and pension funds on a non-stop basis, fully aided and abetted by the SEC and their cronies...

Edit: I should add that I have my own term for this practice, sounds like a newspaper, I call is The Daily Steal

I can confirm.

 

[JoRoMo]

Hydrogen: "Volumetric energy density is poor..." <CUT>

Anyone able find the rest of his argumentation on Hydrogen? It would be very interesting to see!!

 

[Singuy]

COIN down big -13%
Unity down big -33%
Roblx -11.38%

Cathie continues to be reverse midas.

Tsla selling may be a thing tomorrow to quad down on all of these names.

 

[Discoducky]

Regarding Cruise and GM.

TL;DR - For this thread and Tesla investors, Cruise poses no threat to Tesla, just as other EV car makers, in that their success will demonstrate that with AI and sensors, cars can drive without supervision by humans. There is simply market share for everyone at this point...

Longer version...
Cruise is progressing (which is great), they have moved the human driver from the driver seat to a remote location connected by a real-time feed as a supervisor with the ability to hit a big red dedicated stop button just like a human driver would have the ability to press the mechanical brake pedal. And if the real-time feed is interrupted by more than some amount of milliseconds, the car will stop and a human will be dispatched to correct the situation if it persists. This remote human has large amounts of data for them to understand the various known complexities of each road segment for each trip. Which areas are tricky (higher probability of needing to stop or have a poorer ride experience), which are newer (recent road changes), which are new to the segment (less traveled, no recent travel, less confidence)...etc

I've worked with Cruise on their AI infrastructure and I'm aware of their approach. It is largely documented here. What is somewhat unknown to me as far as how it compares with Tesla is:

1. How much does it cost to outfit each vehicle from vanilla? I'm guessing about $100k in 3rd party hardware (sensors, compute, storage, communication, bespoke designing and labor) as I've done this work. Tesla's cost is >10x less and they make nearly all of them from scratch (vertically integrated at very low levels). Cruise will bring this cost down once they have a solution that can work without a city/region geofencing.
2. What is the current status of their AI to predict and have high confidence in corner cases for their geofenced areas? If anyone knows of recent videos to demonstrate this, I'd appreciate a link (I've looked on youtube and can't find anything recent within the past 6 months). With geofencing you can deterministically limit/cap/force your edge cases and fine tune how you deal with them. And the remote supervising human in-the-loop is simply not scalable. Geofencing is also done to ensure you don't take on unmitigated risk with a given number of possible road segments and complexities. For instance, your system has to ensure that the supervising human is attentive/aware and is able to see/hear as well or better *AS IF* they were actually behind the wheel at all times or the vehicle needs to safely stop.

Currently, with Tesla's approach, which is all road segments in given countries, I'm seeing issues with corner cases like complex left hand turns with or without traffic, but not much else. My hope is that unified vector space will be a huge leap forward to making this better. I'm still a huge proponent of basic, fundamental, structural 'near real-time' road segment data to augment real-time camera data during runtime prediction calcs. This can only be accomplished with unified vector space as well as turning camera data into ground truth, but there's an Ashok patent for that!

3. How is GM's involvement going to impact the progress that Cruise is making? The less they are involved the better. Legacy ICE thinking will only hamper/dissuade/slowdown the progress of autonomous driving innovation...

 

[ZeApelido]

You guys are all worried what you are going to do with your Cybertruck -

What am I, tech bro, going to do with my Tesla Semi?

 

[Max Plaid]

COIN down big -13%
Unity down big -33%
Roblx -11.38%

Cathie continues to be reverse midas.

Tsla selling may be a thing tomorrow to quad down on all of these names.

It was my understanding (although bear in mind I have the IQ of a small mollusc) that ARK has rules that if one stock is more than 10% of the value of one of the funds then it needs to be rebalanced, no? So sure, you can argue that selling TSLA is a dumb move, but that's the nature of the beast...

Anyone buying into the fund knows, or should know, the basket of stocks and the maintenance mechanisms, of you think COIN, Unity and Roblox are crappy stocks then you wouldn't have bought into ARKK in the first place, right?

Not trying to defend Cathy here, but I think the constant barrage of critical posts is getting a bit old

 

[Singuy]

It was my understanding (although bear in mind I have the IQ of a small mollusc) that ARK has rules that if one stock is more than 10% of the value of one of the funds then it needs to be rebalanced, no? So sure, you can argue that selling TSLA is a dumb move, but that's the nature of the beast...

Anyone buying into the fund knows, or should know, the basket of stocks and the maintenance mechanisms, of you think COIN, Unity and Roblox are crappy stocks then you wouldn't have bought into ARKK in the first place, right?

Not trying to defend Cathy here, but I think the constant barrage of critical posts is getting a bit old

She has been selling Tesla when Tesla is under 10%. I have seen it as low as 8% where she continued to sell.

 

[mspohr]

Anyone able find the rest of his argumentation on Hydrogen? It would be very interesting to see!!

Here's a good diagram.

https://c2e2.unepdtu.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/analysis-of-hydrogen-fuel-cell-and-battery.pdf