Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

As a shareholder and supporter of Tesla mission, I welcome the statement that Tesla is beefing up its legal arsenal.

I think Elon is taking a page from his buddy Peter Thiel. He was pissed by Gawker (Gizmodo, Jalopnik… etc) when they ran articles about his sexual orientations. So, when there was a chance, Thiel foot the legal bills for Hulk Hogan, going as far as forfeiting rights to pursuit through means that would trigger insurance payout (the big money). The lawsuit ultimately led to the demise of gawker and it had to be sold in order to pay Hulk the awarded damage.

Since then, no media in their right mind dared to write anything about Thiel other than actual news.

With Tesla willing to initiate lawsuits, which is nothing for a 500lb mega cap gorilla with almost no debt and 18B sitting in the bank. It’s not exactly someone you want to ever go to court with unless you actually have a case.

All mejor companies do that with something as little as cease and desist letter. It’s about time Tesla taking a different stance on FUD. Staying silent won’t make it go away.

This should stop a lot of FUD from spreading.

I also think it will have a dissuasive effect for people who are about to post blatant lies in FUD articles to do so. The level of crap you read on Musk on Twitter replies is also at an all time high. However, I don’t think a lawyer team will be aiming to litigate all the comments from those bots anyway. Hope it will keep some MSM in check from posting any dirt they find out without verifying the sources. Might name it Tesla anti-FUD department.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

In what way, do you think? Positive or negative?

If FSD gets shut down, obviously that's a huge negative.
Elon assembling a legal team, for whatever purpose, is probably a negative. Elon has gotten his ass handed to him by the SEC every time. I'd rather he put together a PR team then kept his head down and focused on the mission.

 

[Singuy]

So many ways to get through the "profession driver" regulation if needed.

Send every tester a 1099 of 1 dollar a year and we are now all subcontractor employee of Tesla testing FSD "professionally" as there are zero metrics in determining who is a professional or not besides if you are getting paid for or a volunteer.

 

[Mengy]

Wow Larry Williams must be some sort of clairvoyant. Published this Jan 2022. Noticed that not only does this chart found our top and now bottom, but it is predicting a bull run all the way till late Aug from here before it crashes again. Again this was published around Jan of 2022 without knowing about stock split and AI day!!!


View attachment 806919

Interesting. That chart also agrees with what I keep saying, that I feel TSLA will trade mostly flat for 2022 and we won't see a new ATH until 2023 due to PE compression, despite record quarter after quarter and a stock split.

 

[Singuy]

Interesting. That chart also agrees with what I keep saying, that I feel TSLA will trade mostly flat for 2022 and we won't see a new ATH until 2023 due to PE compression, despite record quarter after quarter and a stock split.

Not even sure if it's flat cause there's no y axis so it could just be momentum measurements vs share price.

 

[nativewolf]

If FSD gets shut down, obviously that's a huge negative.
Elon assembling a legal team, for whatever purpose, is probably a negative. Elon has gotten his ass handed to him by the SEC every time. I'd rather he put together a PR team then kept his head down and focused on the mission.

What he needs is some real form of corporate governance. He does not seem to be able to do so.

 

[Rarity]

The big trial coming down the pike is the racial injustice trial brought by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing (DFEH). Musk has been signaling that Tesla will not settle this case or any of the related California cases, such as the one that resulted recently in the $100 million+ award.

This approach would be different from that taken by all other companies in similar DFEH suits. Normally, companies settle DFEH suits for what is equivalent to a slap on the wrist.

Musk also said that Tesla would "take the heat" on FSD/Autopilot crash lawsuits. We haven't seen many of these, but Musk is signaling that we will see more of them.

In any event, we as investors need to buckle up. Consider yourself notified.

One aspect of this that is comforting: Tesla does not have capacity for all of these proposed street fights, but nobody else does either. Not the courts, not the opposing attorneys. Our legal system relies on lawsuits being settled about 99% of the time. So somebody saying "let's fight every one" causes a capacity problem that naturally spaces these cases out and causes everyone to pick and choose.

Edit: In addition, plaintiff's attorneys have a business model where no money is paid up front. Court cases often take years and sometimes many years before they pay out. Tesla can use this to its advantage in many instances. That said, just as in the Gawker lawsuit, others can fund these lawsuits if they desire.

 

[Gigapress]

Are we in an echo chamber? The stock has tanked 30%-40% already. I have and continue to believe in Tesla and Elon, but he needs to stop this. These hit pieces don’t come out for no reason 3-5 years late...and more will come. They come out because he can’t have it both ways. You can’t have free speech, and state that they have to be within the confines of the law, but then say it is ok to have an ex president back who started an insurrection.
Elon, run the companies they way you have been running them and stop politicizing yourself. No matter what you think, the rust belt are not buying tesla’s. If This keeps up, people who believed in Tesla and the mission will move on because of all this unfortunate nonsense. It IS happening already, I see this right on our forum. Good people who have believed for 8-12 years have been pushed too far. And, this is nonsense. Get above the fray and stop the twitter comments. Be the better person! If you want free speech, you will get it, and the results will not be so good.
if you do not see it now, you never will.

I agree because correlation implies causation. By extension, Elon’s behavior and all the Tesla hit pieces are also the reason the NASDAQ is down 27% since January. He’s single-handedly crashing the entire stock market, that jerk. Why oh why won’t he just stop tweeting?!
(TSLA’s beta is about 2 by the way.)

No one in the Rust Belt wants Teslas, true. Too bad the Cybertruck was vaporware that’s never coming out. I forget…how many preorders do they even have for Cybertruck? Like 25? Now that the Hummer and F-150 Lightning are going to flood the market with over a thousand trucks per year it’s too late for Tesla anyway. Also 500 miles of range and bulletproof exterior is for sissies. That’s too easy. A real truck guy can find a way to make do with 200 miles and needs no truck armor because he is prepared by wearing his own Kevlar body armor 24/7 and he knows the best defense is a good offense, so he always keeps a shotgun in his spare hand. Soon we’ll get a sad but uplifting country melody from Luke Bryan about drinking Budweiser on the side of the road and walking home because his truck ran out of charge. Pure Americana . Cybertruck won’t get that kind of free marketing.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you are liberal - appeal to your friends' "green energy" and "lower carbon footprint" desires.
If you are conservative - appeal to your friends' "self reliance" desires.
(and please no fighting over the above)

That's confusing. Wouldn't you want to tailor your appeal based upon the political leanings of each friend rather than your own political identity?

 

[carterm2]

another very 'sus' Tesla fire... Driver unaware of how to open the door, blinker flashing although he claims no electrical power.

Cabin catches fire... much taller flames in still photo than video, interesting edits and soundtrack issues... this does not seem to be a fire from the battery area, nothing under the car.

It feels just like the previous fire in California City M3 fire where the roof seems to be on fire...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527708021903609857

and posted again

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527935554368614400

 

[carterm2]

soundtrack glitches at 3:15

 

[Mengy]

another very Asus Tesla fire...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527708021903609857

and posted again

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527935554368614400

I don't understand, why would he smash the window rather than simply pull the mechanical manual door latch to get out?

 

[AKAlex]

Has anyone checked out the RoboTaxi report by CYBRLFT on YouTube? He is driving a Model 3 with Beta doing Uber in San Diego and doing a good job recording disengagements. Looking at the most most recent data review video it looks like the error rate halved from 10.8.1 to 10.11.2. It was ~3 months between these releases. 10.12 looks to have halved the error rate again (Estimate from the 10.12 DirtyTesla video). To my eye this seems to indicate an FSD error reduction half-life of 2-3 months. Very encouraging trend here...

 

[nativewolf]

The big trial coming down the pike is the racial injustice trial brought by the California Department of Fair Employment and Housing (DFEH). Musk has been signaling that Tesla will not settle this case or any of the related California cases, such as the one that resulted recently in the $100 million+ award.

This approach would be different from that taken by all other companies in similar DFEH suits. Normally, companies settle DFEH suits for what is equivalent to a slap on the wrist.

Musk also said that Tesla would "take the heat" on FSD/Autopilot crash lawsuits. We haven't seen many of these, but Musk is signaling that we will see more of them.

In any event, we as investors need to buckle up. Consider yourself notified.

One aspect of this that is comforting: Tesla does not have capacity for all of these proposed street fights, but nobody else does either. Not the courts, not the opposing attorneys. Our legal system relies on lawsuits being settled about 99% of the time. So somebody saying "let's fight every one" causes a capacity problem that naturally spaces these cases out and causes everyone to pick and choose.

Edit: In addition, plaintiff's attorneys have a business model where no money is paid up front. Court cases often take years and sometimes many years before they pay out. Tesla can use this to its advantage in many instances. That said, just as in the Gawker lawsuit, others can fund these lawsuits if they desire.

Having spent a decade and a half as a top discovery consultant my takeaways on this approach are that it works to a point. Tobacco did this very well for decades..until they lost and got crushed and basically capitulated completely and broke apart the tobacco/govt ag lobby.

I believe the California DFEH stuff is nonsense best settled for a pittance. Cost of doing business, etc but it is ridiculous. By litigating you paint a red bullseye and raise the potential of discovery wars which are always expensive and always potentially damaging.

Courts will not appreciate a litigate at all costs approach. When the judge sits everyone down and says it is time to settle and stop wasting our time...it is time to settle. Tesla could litigate anyway..that's a right but the judge will not do any favors at that time and I can promise you that Teslas information governance policies will be sorely tested in such an event. Plaintiffs will win every discovery argument. Every email from a tesla engineer re FSD will be reviewed, anything negative highlighted, many many engineers deposed. You could have the entire FSD management team spending weeks every year just in deposition much less in prep for depositions. Someone could delete an email they shouldn't have...then it really hits the fan and you end up with 9 figure discovery bills. That's not an expense that's recouped.

For this reason almost no one takes the litigate every case. Further, Tesla is making no friends with the regulators; regulators and plaintiffs can cooperate very effectively- just ask VW.

 

[JustMe]

Has anyone checked out the RoboTaxi report by CYBRLFT on YouTube? He is driving a Model 3 with Beta doing Uber in San Diego and doing a good job recording disengagements. Looking at the most most recent data review video it looks like the error rate halved from 10.8.1 to 10.11.2. It was ~3 months between these releases. 10.12 looks to have halved the error rate again (Estimate from the 10.12 DirtyTesla video). To my eye this seems to indicate an FSD error reduction half-life of 2-3 months. Very encouraging trend here...

Yep I am encouraged by the 10.12 FSD videos too. In fact they were very boring to watch because it was like watching someone drive aimlessly around town. Boring is good!

The last time I watched FSD demo videos a few months ago, I saw a number of interventions at potentially dangerous situations. It was clear why Tesla was restricting beta access to very careful drivers.

The latest release looks a lot better and I can see why Elon is saying they are close to a much wider release.

 

[StealthP3D]

Any legal eagles who can clarify the difference between Tesla's legal team and this litigation department?

Are they going to practice constitutional law or something more Tesla related like fight the dealership laws. I hope it's the latter.

It sounds to me like the exiting legal team will focus on defense while the litigation team will be like attack dogs focusing on initiating lawsuits.

 

[Krugerrand]

Having spent a decade and a half as a top discovery consultant my takeaways on this approach are that it works to a point. Tobacco did this very well for decades..until they lost and got crushed and basically capitulated completely and broke apart the tobacco/govt ag lobby.

I believe the California DFEH stuff is nonsense best settled for a pittance. Cost of doing business, etc but it is ridiculous. By litigating you paint a red bullseye and raise the potential of discovery wars which are always expensive and always potentially damaging.

Courts will not appreciate a litigate at all costs approach. When the judge sits everyone down and says it is time to settle and stop wasting our time...it is time to settle. Tesla could litigate anyway..that's a right but the judge will not do any favors at that time and I can promise you that Teslas information governance policies will be sorely tested in such an event. Plaintiffs will win every discovery argument. Every email from a tesla engineer re FSD will be reviewed, anything negative highlighted, many many engineers deposed. You could have the entire FSD management team spending weeks every year just in deposition much less in prep for depositions. Someone could delete an email they shouldn't have...then it really hits the fan and you end up with 9 figure discovery bills. That's not an expense that's recouped.

For this reason almost no one takes the litigate every case. Further, Tesla is making no friends with the regulators; regulators and plaintiffs can cooperate very effectively- just ask VW.

So time for that system to be changed too.

 

[SunCatcher]

OT Weekend; I believe this pretty well represents where we are in the timeline of US history:

I think Elon might agree. And since he won't play by those rules, we have a battle ahead. Again, but perhaps much bigger than what we've been witnessing. And Elon may well be able to afford it. Or maybe not.

 

[The Accountant]

No need to check my couch cushions.
With my delivery date moved from July to Dec22-Apr23 . . . .it freed up $114k in cash. Guess what I did with some of that cash.
My my Model X may arrive free of charge in Jan 2023.

Another update. My delivery date has been moved to Aug 18 to October 13 (from Dec 22-Apr23)

 

[insaneoctane]

I feel more confident retiring while Tesla's price is bottoming out than when it is near an ATH. But ultimately, the timing of my decision had more to do with personal and professional issues than the stock market or Tesla.

We'll ride out this bear and be flying high next year.

If you can retire due to the first TSLA 10x, then this market hasn't compromised that. If needed the second 10x then your plans have changed or at least will have you second guessing the timing...