Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

There's an interesting relationship here and it just clicked for me. I'm sure others have thought of this but going to a more stable fuel source and distributed power (solar/wind) can help stabilize the economy as well. If oil can't be used to manipulate the overall economy due to it's influence on so many supply chains, then overall the economy has one less thing to worry about.

THIS is the word that needs to be spread among the masses to counter a fair bit of FUD! It's simple, irrefutable, and to the point.

On that note, here's an interesting, somewhat related expose' about utilities, illustrating their dislike for @MadScientist23 's solar and wind, and helping us to understand what drives some of the FUD:

 

[The Accountant]

An Accountant walks into a TMC Thread . . . . . .and He's Forever Grateful
In early 2019, I knew very little about Tesla. I could not have told you the difference between a Models S and a Model X and I was not even aware Tesla had launched the Model 3. That didn't stop me from swing trading TSLA which was very profitable for me in 2018.
By May 2019, my $200k investment (foolish . . I know) was worth about $110k. Almost a 50% drop.
I said to myself, "What's going on with this company?" So I did some research. And here is what I found:

- Tesla loses money on every car they sell.​

- They will run out of money and go bankrupt​

- If they don't go bankrupt, they will need multiple capital raises and the stock will be diluted​

- The competition is arriving and the story is over for Tesla​

- Their cars are poorly built and catch fire.​

- They will never reach manufacturing scale.​

- On May 21, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said that worse case the stock goes to $10 ($2 post split)​

​

I was resigned to sell my TSLA stock and preserve my capital from going to $0 . . .
. . . ., but then, I accidentally stumbled upon TMC's Investor Thread. I had never seen anything like it.
I read and read for hours across several days. I knew the members may be biased TSLA Bulls but their thinking and opinions were well formed with experts from many fields. I lurked for weeks and weeks until the lightbulb went on: TSLA is a once in a generation investment.
I signed up as a TMC member in Aug 2019 and by year end I had increased my investment at an average share price of $54.

We're down 50% from ATH. It feels like 2019 again. I know that the macro environment is different today but Tesla's long term prospects are stronger today than when I first invested in 2019. I feel safer investing at $630 today than $54 in 2019 when Tesla still had much to prove.

To the lurker reading this post: Keep reading and maybe you will be writing this post in 3 years time.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon has many virtues and has made a tremendous positive impact on the world and humanity. But he isn't the messiah. Treating him as such basically undercuts the argument you just made in the beginning of your post.

7 Bn people in this world but only 1 doing what Elon is doing. What more do you want from him to compare him to a non religious messiah?

 

[mickificki]

Elon has many virtues and has made a tremendous positive impact on the world and humanity. But he isn't the messiah. Treating him as such basically undercuts the argument you just made in the beginning of your post.

You mean someone who has integrity = messiah? wow...quite a low bar...

 

[henchman24]

I am not calling for a bottom when all issues are resolved. We may very well be there now. I have been around long enough to see how this game is played. The only reason I bring up other global conflicts arising has to do with the food inflation globally. These are the times when conflicts breakout at much higher rates than usual. I understand that these can always happen.

Central banks can go negative with their interest rates and people can take out mortgages they are paid for, sure this has already happened, but this is completely the opposite of the Fed’s plan at the moment. One could argue this whole mess is a Fed created miscalculation to begin with. Having them involve themselves ever more deeply into the fabric of the economy may not be such a great idea.

I personally think the short term predictions you have been making sound reasonable and I hope to see them come true.

Yeah there is certainly a risk of elevated conflicts and protectionism on the global food supply.

I'd tend to agree we lean way too heavily on the Fed to solve the issues of the economy, but that was the world we stepped into in the 30s and then went all in during the 70s. I think a case could be made that while they cause issues and early missteps were especially horrid... the Fed has done a solid job keeping damage to a minimum on minor recessions. They are quicker and less painful. 07-09 is the obvious outlier, but even that had a much higher floor than previous collapses.

My predictions are much more likely to be wrong than right. I've just been studying pullbacks to understand where things trigger. Right now I think we are in a critical point. This can be the bottom and has hit measures that point to a decently strong likelihood of it being the bottom. Could also be the turning point to another 7-10% leg down too.

 

[The Accountant]

I'd say we are due for a housing correction, especially in some markets... but a total collapse is unlikely.

Talking to real estate agents in Connecticut, New York, Vermont and Florida, they have told me that they have never in their career seen as many 100% cash offers as they have seen in 2020 - 2022. A lot of stock market gains went into real estate. I don't believe homeowners are as leveraged today as in 2008.
And for 2 people I know who were getting mortgages, the banks were tough. Not the easy lending we saw in 2006-2008.

House prices may come down but I don't think we will see a collapse because there does not appear to be enough housing supply.

Edit: Talking US market here.

 

[henchman24]

The first level of resistance has been cleared... need a strong push past 11,500...

Stronger volume today too on a green day.

Talking to real estate agents in Connecticut, New York, Vermont and Florida, they have told me that they have never in their career seen as many 100% cash offers as they have seen in 2020 - 2022. A lot of stock market gains went into real estate. I don't believe homeowners are as leveraged today as in 2008.
And for 2 people I know who were getting mortgages, the banks were tough. Not the easy lending we saw in 2006-2008.

House prices may come down but I don't think we will see a collapse because there does not appear to be enough housing supply.

Agreed... seeing it in my tiny little town too. Cash offers are driving up prices to what I think are insane levels. A house right next to me just sold for 3x what I bought my house for in 2014 and it was a cash offer.

Longer term, I think with the population issues we will see housing have some rough years with oversupply. It isn't likely to happen in the near future though.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

By far, the most annoying thing about watching the stock on up days is watching it vastly outperform while the macros are flat….only to slowly trade up less than its beta as the macros go up. We’re up 10X the Nasdaq 30 mins ago, now not even up 3X.

Looks likely we’ll be lucky to be up 2X by the end of the day

Was trading up the same as Ark….Ark up 4.5% now. Tesla capped at 3%

It’s so damn obvious every time. Let the spoofing continue!

 

[Stretch2727]

Here is my contribution to Q2. Picked up on Monday.

I already swapped the wheels to 20". The 21" wheels likely would not survive the winter pot holes here.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Don't worry, I'll buy every share before we get to zero! The ship is not sinking.

Fear, uncertainty and doubt is being used to try to shake the confidence of shareholders. It has been surprisingly effective against many of you right here considering how strong the fundamentals are. I'm pretty disappointed in those of you who have let the optics of the share price dominate your analyses of the company.

I have never been so confident in Tesla. I have juste never witnessed that much manipulation of TSLA from wallstreet. I’m losing confidence in the stock market as a whole to recognize the true value of a company.

 

[UncaNed]

This can be the bottom and has hit measures that point to a decently strong likelihood of it being the bottom. Could also be the turning point to another 7-10% leg down too.

Thank you for clearing things up for us!

 

[Nocturnal]

And for 2 people I know who were getting mortgages, the banks were tough. Not the easy lending we saw in 2006-2008.

Just getting my home refinanced in 2021 (same lender, same me, less debt, more assets) was far more burdensome than even what I experienced in 2017.

I didn't have property in 2006 but my ex did and they were giving out money to anyone with a pulse, on loans that were known to be impossible to pay. The assumption seemed to be that values would keep going up and that refinancing with greater equity was going to fix that.

 

[elasalle]

Talking to real estate agents in Connecticut, New York, Vermont and Florida, they have told me that they have never in their career seen as many 100% cash offers as they have seen in 2020 - 2022. A lot of stock market gains went into real estate. I don't believe homeowners are as leveraged today as in 2008.
And for 2 people I know who were getting mortgages, the banks were tough. Not the easy lending we saw in 2006-2008.

House prices may come down but I don't think we will see a collapse because there does not appear to be enough housing supply.

Edit: Talking US market here.

1 data point : I paid off both my condo and house balances last year. (thx TSLA)
still hoping/(sure) Model X purchase will be the same (preferred option - by selling CC's )

 

[henchman24]

Thank you for clearing things up for us!

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m looking forward to it. Haha

One argument I see against the high PE is that the Fed will be unwinding 9 trillion off their balance sheet. Wouldn’t this put much higher pressure on PE?

P/E is an over-rated metric. People who worry about high p/e's miss the greatest growth stories of all time. The number one newbie investor mistake is to think the p/e ratio has any significant meaning in isolation, especially that of a fast-growing company. The reason for this is that the primary determinant of present value is the likely range of future earnings of a company and the probabilities of where it will land within that range (including the probability of bankruptcy). Since this involves substantial subjective analysis, with each scenario differing widely, it renders the current p/e of every high growth stock all but completely meaningless.

The valuation is highly sensitive to individual assessment of the probability of where the future earnings will actually end up. That's what makes TSLA such a great value IMO, because the market does not understand the fundamental and practically unassailable lead Tesla has in terms of pricing power. In other words, the market in incorrectly judging the probability that Tesla will have stiff competition and the probability that Tesla will continue to innovate and show the auto industry how to make better, safer cars in less time with less resources. And, IMO, that's on top of incorrectly judging the probability that Tesla will develop multiple lucrative revenue streams in segments that are currently not even profitable.

Using current p/e to judge valuation of a growth company would be like trying to tell the fuel efficiency of a truck using only a record of the tire pressure over time. Impossible. TSLA was a screaming buy at $1200 from the perspective of solid, long-term value and it's roughly four to six times as good of a value at half that price (due to the passage of time (the company advancing their position) as well as the way the risk/reward ratio works when dealing with future uncertainties.

 

[GOVA]

Talking to real estate agents in Connecticut, New York, Vermont and Florida, they have told me that they have never in their career seen as many 100% cash offers as they have seen in 2020 - 2022. A lot of stock market gains went into real estate. I don't believe homeowners are as leveraged today as in 2008.
And for 2 people I know who were getting mortgages, the banks were tough. Not the easy lending we saw in 2006-2008.

House prices may come down but I don't think we will see a collapse because there does not appear to be enough housing supply.

Edit: Talking US market here.

Yes, I've heard that too from many brokers. People with lots of $, just trade in place garbage $ for something of value.

Example, FL island property, offer pending, somebody comes in with 15M of cash and gets the offer instantly. The call price was 12M.

 

[elasalle]

Only those on boats get to ride the wave

cheers all ... hope good times are ahead

 

[JimS]

An Accountant walks into a TMC Thread . . . . . .and He's Forever Grateful
In early 2019, I knew very little about Tesla. I could not have told you the difference between a Models S and a Model X and I was not even aware Tesla had launched the Model 3. That didn't stop me from swing trading TSLA which was very profitable for me in 2018.
By May 2019, my $200k investment (foolish . . I know) was worth about $110k. Almost a 50% drop.
I said to myself, "What's going on with this company?" So I did some research. And here is what I found:

- Tesla loses money on every car they sell.​

- They will run out of money and go bankrupt​

- If they don't go bankrupt, they will need multiple capital raises and the stock will be diluted​

- The competition is arriving and the story is over for Tesla​

- Their cars are poorly built and catch fire.​

- They will never reach manufacturing scale.​

- On May 21, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley said that worse case the stock goes to $10 ($2 post split)​

​

I was resigned to sell my TSLA stock and preserve my capital from going to $0 . . .
. . . ., but then, I accidentally stumbled upon TMC's Investor Thread. I had never seen anything like it.
I read and read for hours across several days. I knew the members may be biased TSLA Bulls but their thinking and opinions were well formed with experts from many fields. I lurked for weeks and weeks until the lightbulb went on: TSLA is a once in a generation investment.
I signed up as a TMC member in Aug 2019 and by year end I had increased my investment at an average share price of $54.

We're down 50% from ATH. It feels like 2019 again. I know that the macro environment is different today but Tesla's long term prospects are stronger today than when I first invested in 2019. I feel safer investing at $630 today than $54 in 2019 when Tesla still had much to prove.

To the lurker reading this post: Keep reading and maybe you will be writing this post in 3 years time.

Dear Mods, I hope you know where this post belongs.

@The Accountant: Thank you for all you do.

 

[StealthP3D]

Something needs to improve for a bottom to form in markets.

Real change in the economy is generally gradual. Investor sentiment is what drives equity prices, and it tends to change on a dime.

 

[bkp_duke]

OK, I'm convinced. After reading @henchman24 's posts, and doing my own homework, I think this is the bottom.

Wish I had timed it better, but bought 89 more shares @ 651.65 to round out to another 100 lot. Pretty much used up all my dry powder.


Now you can all blame me when we drop below 600. LoL.