Yes, if you're Ukrainian or connected to a Texas elementary school.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Does that mean we won’t be having another -7% day. I have seen to many of them lately.
I'm sorry, most days like that started with green futures.
I wish to think there is a SP so cheap that a new flow of buyers will arrive and prevent SP from crossing a certain support level. If we go to zero then I will proudly sink with the ship too.
I really wish I could have stepped aside from some of the carnage taking place right now. I see on other internets the dweebs be talking about lessons from 2007-2009, a period of great pain. I was more active in the markets then, was lucky enough to escape the worst year with just a 12 % decline. My thoughts (I think I remember this accurately) were that big credit expansion was hurting everyone and this would have to unwind further. I was comfortable that I understood market dynamics and such credit boom bust cycles repeat themselves and are tradeable. I figure that future such cycles ought to happen again due to human nature, namely greed and fear. I do not have my hand on the pulse of the market as much now, feel a bit disconnected from money on an emotional level. Much of this is because of how we structured our retirement to live through such times, survive and thrive.
I think going back to 2007-2009 period can offer some insight into the market now, specifically TSLA in comparison to techy stocks, though there is a great auto comparison also.
Apple and Netflix are two companies that we owned, believed in, got scared out with small gains. These companies offered unique products, had great leaders, great vision for the future, drive to compete and succeed in the market. But they were no different in what happened to them at the slaughterhouse of the housing market crisis. My opinion is the bear moves in some of these stocks was due to overall market conditions, not the prospects for the companies.
AAPL, in general terms, hit a high near the end of 2007 of about $7.24. At the end of 2008 it hit a low of $2.79, at about 38% of its previous value in a years time. It took until the fall of 2009, November or so to recover back to the 07 highs. It did not double the highs to near $14 until 2011. So, it took two years to recover old highs, and four years to double old highs.
Netflix was similarly impacted. They had reached a local high about April of 2008 ($5.50), declined to $2.71 six months later, recovered old high by February 2009, did not double old high until March of 2010, about two years after previous decline started.
Now, another fascinating example to me, certainly one I missed on. Ford crashed down to $1 a share and within a few short years had totally recovered.
What do these things mean to me now?
1. Big market conditions impact everything.
2. Timing is variable, not well known.
3. These moves can take YEARS to happen and one must be prepared for them.
4. Great companies continue and persist and are vastly different than the Enrons of the world.
5. Buy and holders can benefit in the long run.
6. Those with long term conviction can do well buying the worst of the fear.
7. Being in touch with fear and emotionalism can lead to disastrous portfolio outcomes.
Me thinks that all will work out for Tesla and Musk. There are articles written to blame everything on certain things or characteristics or accusations, but the real moves happen because of deteriorating market.
The company continues to execute, plan for the long term. They have cash to survive. Great products, great leaders, great vision. Big oil is getting smaller, there are changes afoot that once occur will not return to old ways. The problems of today will not persist.
Apple and Netflix continued to dominate for many years, bringing forth great products and services, many of which were not known to the public in 2007.
I think going back to 2007-2009 period can offer some insight into the market now, specifically TSLA in comparison to techy stocks, though there is a great auto comparison also.
Apple and Netflix are two companies that we owned, believed in, got scared out with small gains. These companies offered unique products, had great leaders, great vision for the future, drive to compete and succeed in the market. But they were no different in what happened to them at the slaughterhouse of the housing market crisis. My opinion is the bear moves in some of these stocks was due to overall market conditions, not the prospects for the companies.
AAPL, in general terms, hit a high near the end of 2007 of about $7.24. At the end of 2008 it hit a low of $2.79, at about 38% of its previous value in a years time. It took until the fall of 2009, November or so to recover back to the 07 highs. It did not double the highs to near $14 until 2011. So, it took two years to recover old highs, and four years to double old highs.
Netflix was similarly impacted. They had reached a local high about April of 2008 ($5.50), declined to $2.71 six months later, recovered old high by February 2009, did not double old high until March of 2010, about two years after previous decline started.
Now, another fascinating example to me, certainly one I missed on. Ford crashed down to $1 a share and within a few short years had totally recovered.
What do these things mean to me now?
1. Big market conditions impact everything.
2. Timing is variable, not well known.
3. These moves can take YEARS to happen and one must be prepared for them.
4. Great companies continue and persist and are vastly different than the Enrons of the world.
5. Buy and holders can benefit in the long run.
6. Those with long term conviction can do well buying the worst of the fear.
7. Being in touch with fear and emotionalism can lead to disastrous portfolio outcomes.
Me thinks that all will work out for Tesla and Musk. There are articles written to blame everything on certain things or characteristics or accusations, but the real moves happen because of deteriorating market.
The company continues to execute, plan for the long term. They have cash to survive. Great products, great leaders, great vision. Big oil is getting smaller, there are changes afoot that once occur will not return to old ways. The problems of today will not persist.
Apple and Netflix continued to dominate for many years, bringing forth great products and services, many of which were not known to the public in 2007.
If you are a trader TIMING is everything. Your charts illustrate that perfectly. Calling a bottom is very hard to do, calling a top is likewise difficult. But TIMING is everything. It's why HODL is a better strategy for a long term investor. It does prevent one for taking advantage of the pull backs.
How's this for insane. I'm in the UK. I bought a 2nd hand, white, SR+ model 3 with 200 miles on it from Tesla for £38700 in March of 2021. It was one of the last (to ship to the UK) Freemont Nov 2020 "refresh" build with the heatpump. Has the £1000 optional tow-hook too. I've now driven it 6500 miles. At the time the new price was about £41,000. As it was a bit of a risk buying such an expensive car (I did cash, the financing is too confusing/risky) I figured I wouldn't lose much if demand stayed high.
14 months later, looking on Tesla's 2nd hand page the closest is a 2nd hand SR+ refresh with 18000 miles and it's £48000 - no tow hook. More miles. So I've gained about £10000 while owning the car! The new price is about £46000 now and has the LFP pack. Elon did call it an appreciating asset - but I don't think he meant like this. Yeah, by shear luck my timing was amazing! I'm sure other people in the US have similar stories.
FYI1 -I wonder why the original owner sold it for £200. But the car had numerous intermittent faults (no GPS, no rear cameras, e-call emergency warning for about 10minutes). Which after a lot of back and forth with 3 service visits was detected as a twisted wiring loom that was tight when the car was cold and pulled and disconnected. Fixed and now 100% fine! Given the owner took hold of it in the depths of a Scottish winter I bet he wondered what was this piece of rubbish where everything didn't work
FYI2 - I bought it for cash - I'd saved for 10 years and felt rich after buying a few lithium mining stocks (Orocobre, now Allkem, LAC, etc) and a few other mining stocks that had done well. Never bought Tesla
Here's your cue.Never bought Tesla
The wider market is crashing so I'm trying to sit calm and wait. I watched .com's crash through 2000-2002 (was down £20,000+ at one point as a 25 year old with most of my money in shares) and saw a lot of the same crazy hype about tech over the last few years. Companies going to crazy prices, and then doubling in a few months after that! Tesla it's more deserved, but some others were just silly (many in ARK). I nearly bought at $700 last month, but think it'll go back to half a trillion. That number still sounds crazy
There's definitely a recession coming. A year after oil hits $100 - it always happens. The economy has to readjust to the new high price of oil that still drives everything. Has driven up the costs of everything, all fuels, all minerals, fertiliser, international shipping, etc. compounded by the mad demand after lock-down and now supply chain disruption. Was reading how there's lots of companies in Ukraine that specialise in making wiring looms for European cars!Now Dicks sporting goods setting the next fire
interesting comments.
I stayed quiet in the markets for a few years. Ford at a few dollars a share was not without risk IMO.
What I did was use my modest equity as a backing to buy real estate when conventional mortgage loans were nearly impossible. Let the equity markets sort it out for a few years.
I was able to buy a 12 acre property with 2 houses for 200k because I had the ability to complete closing. Equity markets are not without risk and RE looked more rational to me even if difficult.
The point is to assess each situation as the unique opportunity it is. What we have now is weird on several levels. Metal benders like Tesla will do fine IMO but we seem to be entering a period of low optimism More generally.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Hadn't seen this mentioned, depending on the details might impact some folks estimates regarding FSD/EAP deliveries at front of queue (though EU take rate for full FSD is low anyway hence why EAP still exists there)
driveteslacanada.ca
Tesla halts European deliveries with EAP/FSD pending software update to comply with regulations [Update]
It is no secret that strict regulations have impacted the driver-assist features Tesla is able to offer in the European Union (EU). This includes having to scale back features that were previously like automatic lane […]
driveteslacanada.ca
The Accountant
Active Member
It may take until Q3 . . . . . but the investing world will realize investing in Tesla is a flight to safety.
Backlog as far as the eye can see. . . . . . premium prices . . . . .two new factories . . . . . manufacturing innovations . . .no debt and printing cash.
scubastevo80
Member
Agree - this is shaping up to be a winner takes all environment for auto manufacturers. It seems like automakers are either in the camp that is unable to scale production, is heavily skewed towards ICE car production, and is struggling to make profits... or you're Tesla. Gas over $5 a gallon is a big mental milestone and will further trigger more people to look at EVs. I was at work drinks the other night and 3 people whipped out pictures of their gas station receipts, all over $100 for the first time.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
It's counter-intuitive, but you must be your most vigilant for misinformation when it confirms your biases. You're most susceptible when reading what you want to hear. It may have a kernel of truth that rings true, but that alone doesn't validate the source.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Over here we're paying around $8 a gallon (€2/litre). The Giga Berlin ramp cannot come soon enough.
I’m looking forward to it. Haha
One argument I see against the high PE is that the Fed will be unwinding 9 trillion off their balance sheet. Wouldn’t this put much higher pressure on PE?
07-09 was a complete financial system melt down that lead to the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s. It is possible we are on a path to collapse like that, but it would be incredibly rare to have two of those events hit within 15 years. Right now we aren't even sure if we are in a recession or not, let alone a structural collapse in the housing market.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Banks, corporations, and American households are about the least leveraged they've ever been. Unemployment and continuing welfare rates are the lowest in my lifetime. So I'd argue we're closer to nirvana than anything approaching structural collapse.
We just have smartphones now, so it seems a bit overwhelming.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
