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So he invited paparazzi to take pictures while on a short vacation recently? He asked the WSJ to make up a story about him and Brin’s wife? He asked the media to dig up the records about his twins with the SpaceX employee? His surrogate daughter with Grimes? He asked people to track his private jet 24/7?

Give me a break. Try a little context. There’s a difference between business attention and the crap that the original post was addressing and to which I was responding. And you know that.
Yes he invites it. He can't keep his mouth shut and he invites all the attention. Then whines when he gets attention he doesn't like. Peter Thiel is just as weird but he keeps his life private for the most part. Musk puts himself out their constantly so yeah he invites it.
 
I agree that Oshkosh vans are a ridiculous choice and there are now far better choices that are commercially available.
The most troubling aspect of the USPS purchase is that only 40% of the vehicles will be electric - the rest are still ICE.


"According to a report from Reuters this morning, the US Postal Service now intends to purchase 25,000 EVs for mail deliveries, more than doubling its previous commitment of 10,019 from Oshkosh Defense. Of the first 50,000 mail delivery vehicles ordered form Oshkosh, at least 25,000 of them will be electric. Additionally, USPS shared intentions to purchase more than 34,500 commercial off-the-shelf delivery vehicles over the next two years.

It hopes that 20,000 of those commercial vehicles will be EVs, but the additional 14,500 will still be traditional gas combustion. To reach this EV goal, the company’s purchases will include “as many BEVs as are commercially available and consistent with our delivery profile.” Initially, the combined roll out of replacement postal service vehicles will total 84,500 units, 40% of which are now intended to be EVs. Again, this is welcomed news, but we’re not there yet."
Unfortunately, I think the timing here is quite bad.

It's not clear how quickly they would be able to replace their fleet with EVs and right now the USPS fleet is outright dangerous. Most of the fleet was in dangerous condition 10 years ago when my wife worked for the USPS.

That said, they'd be better off just buying fleet vans from Ford or GM and modifying them. Those OshKosh trucks look terribly inefficient. Plug in Hybrids and short range EVs like the Ford Transit EV would be ideal to start replacing the fleet until better alternatives pop up.
 
@Artful Dodger What have you done to Gary Black?

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If they are spending so much effort on cases like this, I wonder if this is an indication of how deep they are down the rabbit hole.

They've moved on from general cases to chasing more specific issues. Seems like that is an indication of significant progress.

Or perhaps this is just window dressing to shut up some critics.
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Wal Mart had a rough earnings report today, my guess is the market will be red tomorrow, including TSLA.
Walmart didn’t report earnings, they cut guidance. Their earnings are in mid August. The reasoning though is something that should be reassuring to the market (which means do the opposite and go red!). It is too high of inventory and they need to cut a bunch of prices because consumers aren’t buying. Which means relief from inflation at least, and maybe some temporary deflation. We had Target already do the same. Others will be following and this is good for inflation and interest rates.
 
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Walmart didn’t report earnings, they cut guidance. Their earnings are in mid August. The reasoning though is something that should be reassuring to the market (which means do the opposite and go red!). It is too high of inventory and they need to cut a bunch of prices because consumers aren’t buying. Which means relief from inflation at least, and maybe some temporary deflation. We had Target already do the same. Others will be following and this is good for inflation and interest rates.
Anecdotal, but inline with Walmart recent guidance change:
A person twice removed from me who works in middle management at Walmart lamented last month that they were inundated with excess inventory. They also mentioned containers would arrive and Walmart would discover what they received only upon opening the containers. It was all they could do to find places to park containers until they could liquidate the oversupply of inventory.
 
The first 6 bullets of the leaked FSD Beta 10.13 Release Notes all seem to address Chuck Cook's unprotected left turn situation. This is such a troublesome turn that Tesla sent their team of ADAS drivers to strictly work on collecting data/test 10.13 at this particular location. Latest videos of Tesla's tests Chuck posted show great improvement, but we are unsure which of the turns were made by 10.13 and which by the test driver.

FSD Beta 10.13 Release Notes​

  • Improved decision-making for unprotected left turns using better estimation of ego’s interaction with other objects through the maneuver.
  • Improved stopping pose while yielding for crossing objects at “Chuck Cook style” unprotected left turns by utilizing the median safety regions.
  • Made speed profile more comfortable when creeping for visibility, to allow for smoother stops when protecting for potentially occluded objects.
  • Enabled creeping for visibility at any intersection where objects might cross ego’s path, regardless of the presence of traffic controls.
  • Improved lane position error by 5% and lane recall by 12% with a [obscured]
  • Improved lane position error of crossing and merging lanes by 22% by adding long-range skip connections and a more powerful trunk to the network architecture.

There is also a 2 hour discussion with Chunk on this unprotected left turn with obstructed view. Chunk is a retired commercial pilot with strong technical background making the analysis fairly interesting. I watched the first 30 minutes.

Key point from that video for this forum is that Chunk feels the geometry of the driver side B pillar camera placement is inadaquate to remove the driver at this stop sign due to the obstruction on the left. The angle and placement of the camera, the obstruction on the left, the distance on how far to safely creep forward, and especially the high speed of the traffic vs number of pixels representing a car at far distance all challenge FSD. For human to make the turn, the driver must lean forward past the steering wheel to get a slight glimpse of the traffic on the left. He hopes he has not shown Tesla a problem Tesla cannot solve as that is not his intent.

other points:
- responding to the question on how would he solve this given unlimited budget, his solution is to add more cameras
- since Elon tweeted to Chunk, that is most likely the reason the ADAS team has been there months ago, and returned recently
- these 6 lane unprotected left turn road design are not just in Florida, but also common in Texas
- with respect to make a right turn then make a U at the next light, he avoids that because in the 30 years he has lived there, there has been many times more accidents there than going for the left due to people running the red.
- cars regularly can go 85 mph on this stretch with some motorcycles going over 100 in the night.
- back in v9 days, FSD beta used make 4 right turns, but it just ends up at the same stop sign. :)

 
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Has there been any authoritative confirmation that the Austin cathode plant will use the saline process that was described at Battery Day?

Extraction of lithium via salt is an upstream process. It's output is lithium hydroxide, which is then an input material for the production of cathode material. It is that 2nd step that Tesla will do at the cathode plant at Giga Texas.

That's also why Elon keeps saying 'starting a lithium refining business is like printing free money'. And why Tesla says if their partners don't solve the problem, they will.

TL;dr Opportunity Lost == Opportunity Cost.
 
There is also a 2 hour discussion with Chunk on this unprotected left turn with obstructed view. Chunk is a retired commercial pilot with strong technical background making the analysis fairly interesting. I watched the first 30 minutes.

Key point from that video for this forum is that Chunk feels the geometry of the driver side B pillar camera placement is inadaquate to remove the driver at this stop sign due to the obstruction on the left. The angle and placement of the camera, the obstruction on the left, the distance on how far to safely creep forward, and especially the high speed of the traffic all challenge FSD. For human to make the turn, the driver must lean forward past the steering wheel to get a slight glimpse of the traffic on the left. He hopes he has not shown Tesla a problem Tesla cannot solve as that is not his intent.

other points:
- responding to the question on how would he solve this given unlimited budget, his solution is to add more cameras
- since Elon tweeted to Chunk, that is most likely the reason the ADAS team has been there months ago, and returned recently
- these 6 lane unprotected left turn road design are not just in Florida, but also common in Texas
- with respect to make a right turn then make a U at the next light, he avoids that because in the 30 years he has lived there, there has been many times more accidents there than going for the left due to people running the red.
- cars regularly can go 85 mph on this stretch with some motorcycles going over 100 in the night.
- back in v9 days, FSD beta used make 4 right turns, but it just ends up at the same stop sign. :)

I feel like the fish eye camera out of the front providing 180 degree view is being utilized more than the B pillar camera in this case. I wonder if chuck knows one of the camera out of the front is a fisheye.
 
Wal Mart had a rough earnings report today, my guess is the market will be red tomorrow, including TSLA.
The reaction will probably be fear of confirmation of technical recession since consumers are buying less as shown by Walmart earnings.
I am not sure these lower guidance will be seen as a positive thing to lower inflation since consumers are buying less however this might be the result in the end.
 
Has there been any authoritative confirmation that the Austin cathode plant will use the saline process that was described at Battery Day?
what is the 'saline process'?

There is a dry electrode coating process (part of Maxwell acquisition) which apparently is working successfully only for the anode (graphite and maybe a little bit of silicon) and not the cathode. I'm guessing that's part of the delay, having to go back to a traditional solvent & drying for the cathode. Any defects can cause battery failures and

Also it seems as if the Tesla batteries are NMC like nearly everyone else. Panasonic must have some tight patents or proprietary processes for NCA, which has a bit higher energy density.
 
The reaction will probably be fear of confirmation of technical recession since consumers are buying less as shown by Walmart earnings.
I am not sure these lower guidance will be seen as a positive thing to lower inflation since consumers are buying less however this might be the result in the end.
Markets react in weird ways sometimes, so nothing here should be unexpected green or red. That said, this is clearly an inventory problem more than a recession problem (as of now). It has been building for over a year now if people have been watching. Markets should realize that, but that said (again)… 2nd major retailer with this risk. The disease is spreading and it will hit pretty much all major retailers soon… that segment of the market should drop and drop pretty hard.
 

Faraday Future Delays Launch of Debut EV, Warns Cash Is Short​

  • Company sees FF91 SUV coming in third or fourth quarter
  • Startup hopes to raise $325 million to fund through year-end
Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. is pushing back the start of production and deliveries of its long-awaited debut vehicle to the “third or fourth quarter of 2022,” and says it needs additional capital to pull off the launch.

The Los Angeles-based electric vehicle startup, which went public in a July 2021 merger with a blank-check company, had previously said it planned to launch the battery-powered SUV as soon as this month

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what is the 'saline process'?

There is a dry electrode coating process (part of Maxwell acquisition) which apparently is working successfully only for the anode (graphite and maybe a little bit of silicon) and not the cathode. I'm guessing that's part of the delay, having to go back to a traditional solvent & drying for the cathode. Any defects can cause battery failures and

Also it seems as if the Tesla batteries are NMC like nearly everyone else. Panasonic must have some tight patents or proprietary processes for NCA, which has a bit higher energy density.
The teardown by the TLF only had DBE for the Anode,

There there was this comment in the earnings call:-
In Q2, at Kato, we fully automated power conveyance for the dry anode-electrode tool there, unlocking major increases in production and improvements in yields.

And this comment in the engineering thread:- Investor Engineering Discussions

So as far as we know the Cathode isn't yet DBE, eventually an aqueous cathode process may replace solvents.

I don't know if the Texas main building has solvent recovery or drying ovens, if required, these might be part of the Cathode plant being constructed?

I have a hunch some part of the 4680 ramp at Texas is dependent on the Cathode plant and Lithium concentrate deliveries around the end of this year.

It also seems like it took some time to get the DBE Anode process working well. I don't think I've ever seen footage of a DBE cathode process. every time I see it, it looks like the Anode.

Jeff Dahn specialises in NMC, the 1 million mile and 4 million mile chemistries are both NMC, at least in the published papers.

It is likely they no longer need the higher energy density of NCA, MNC is good enough, and there are other trade-offs.