You know why costco carries a PE of 40+? Barely anything has a PE that high, Tsla is trying to hold on to forward PE of 50.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
29% CAGR... Costco is the single best retailer at leveraging growth, and IMO, they earned their 40+ PE with sustained results. I'd hesitate going above 40, so I'm not a buyer for them... but if they got to 30-32, I'd buy.
Forward PE is simply expectations and you can't really compare backward looking and forward looking PEs like that. That said, by market estimates, Tesla is more around a 70 forward PE and Costco is more 35. Considering the difference in growth rates, seems fair.
Costco is really one of the only retailers I find to be fairly valued.
Because Costco has the best hot dogs available to eat right after the checkout registers.
I doubt the market will react extremely favorably to a prototype robot with no sales. For a similar example, how much does the market value robotaxies? Elon has hyped that for years, but it still isn't close to deployment. Given Tesla's track record, the market is not likely to give Teslabot any more credit until it sees sales.
At best, a Teslabot prototype would add billions to tens of billions valuation to TSLA, but nowhere near a hundred billion. TSLA might go up a fraction of a percent to a couple percent due to Teslabot prototype, which would be lost in the market noise.
Plus, this is not virgin market. There are robots everywhere in factories today. The burden is on Tesla to prove that a general-purpose humanoid robot is superior to a purpose built robot (e.g. automated conveyor belt or picker), and that proof will be through sales.
This whole idea is what TSLAQ is missing. Tesla doesn't need to make the most cars, to be the most profitable automaker. This is the next iPhone/Android market.
snellenr
Member
Saline process avoids the acid-intensive phosphate steps in producing the cathode materials... attached is from the 2022 Battery Day video @ 1:12, where the greyed -out blocks are sulfating steps that use sulphuric acid & other chemicals. They refer to "saline extraction" later (@ 1:15) in the context of lithium processing, so it's possible that saline just applies to lithium extraction...
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Tesla is has higher GAAP profit for the first 6 months of 2022. $5.6B for Tesla versus $4.6B for GM.
For sure this gap will continue grow.
There isn't a clear market for that, as it's far from clear how it would be trained or made useful. It might require lots of expensive customization per task. The hardware isn't the interesting part---there have been physical robots for many years. The software matters and that can't be easily demo'ed, or more correctly any demo can be hyped and only deep independent evaluation can tell the difference between a toy and a tool. To get there, there would probably need to be academic prototypes of software systems which can do general purpose tasks, just as there were many university EVs before they came to commercial run rate production. It's a basic science problem.
The first job would be to perform tasks in their own factories better or cheaper than humans. Can it install soft trim and wiring in cars, and check for quality? That's a surprisingly difficult task.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Optimus sub-Prime doesn't need to add a single cent to TSLA; all it needs to do is lower COGS at the factories, and keep them pumping out product while everyone else is social distancing.
Man, the wait for Q3 earnings is going to be excruciating.
Obviously, this is based on IF Shanghai has no shutdowns in Q3, but the gap between Tesla and everyone else is going to be so dramatic from an earnings standpoint starting in Q3 that it will be hilarious watching Tesla bears and legacy auto bulls try to explain what's going on.
Ture, and yet Tesla will also make the most cars, long after it becomes the most profitable automaker.
If it can help the factories then it can't help but raise the SP.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Well dang, I could have been more greedy!My cheeky buy order at $791 processed! All ready for stock split announcement next week
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Imagine a factory line where there needs to be 50 bodies with arms doing something. If you can go to 25 bots and 25 humans interleaved you've doubled the distance between workers.
OK they aren't evenly spaced down the line. You have 3 people leaning into or standing inside the body at once now. Switch that to 2 bots and 1 human and you have no close interaction for biological viruses.
Let the human supervise the bots, give every human one or two bots to manage and you can space the humans out and still get more work done (assuming the bots can work as well as a human).
Even if you have to start with one bot per human that prevents Repetitive Strain Injuries (RSI). Later when you don't need to monitor the bots so closely you can increase the ratio and get the distancing of humans you want.
I'm sure there will be rough spots but I like the concept.
This is obviously a huge knock on wood situation, but it seems the Covid situation in Shanghai is actually going a lot better than was expected a couple weeks ago. There is mass testing and some localized restrictions, but it seems a crapton better than it was in March. If this 'dynamic zero' policy continues to work like this, I would say a full shutdown risk is lowering dramatically.
You got me thinking... why not. It's pretty scary going into Wed, but that's why it's so cheap IMO.My cheeky buy order at $791 processed! All ready for stock split announcement next week
Thinking it bounces in time for a Friday delight.
Captkerosene
Member
Probably, if Elon shows a bot spending 30 seconds screwing the lid off of a water bottle. But, if Bot juggles three balls with one hand while solving a Rubik's Cube with the other ... all while river dancing ... then people will have no choice but to see the value of what Tesla has.
What if Tesla shows a bot quickly learning a new skill - like working a station on the production line - and then announces that Cybertruck manufacturing will be fully automated?
Or, how about Elon pulls out the tux again and dances a waltz with Bot?
Big difference between having a real product (Cybertruck reveal) and AID1 where we were showing slides of computer chips and dancing actors.
I will take the freedom to say something about this (without delving too deep) because of its consequences for us shareholders.
The interior of the structural battery pack can only sort of work like a honeycomb, with all the nice structural properties that come with it, if all the individual cels are glued to each other.
But in stead of the straight walls inside of a true honeycomb, the walls will be curved because of the shape of the individual cells, therefore the 'sort of'.
My engineering gut says that this aspect will make it not as strong and as stiff as a true honeycomb.
Nonetheless, glueing the cells to each other will certainly help to improve the strength and stiffness of the pack, and so adding to the total stiffness of the body of the car.
Creating the possibility to use less material and being lighter with at least the same strength, stiffness and driving characteristics as competitors who do not have it.
In the end for us here: more margin per produced Tesla compared to the competition.
The only main unknown catch I see now: when being part of the structure, will the deformation of cells (tiny as it may be), have negative effects on them?
Pretty sure that Tesla will examine/test this thoroughly.
And TSLA starts to fade.......just like yesterday. Another 3X the Nasdaq day incoming
Grumpy level increasing.............
Edit: Some distinct selling volume showed up at 11:48.............gee what FUD hit piece is out now?
Grumpy level increasing.............
Edit: Some distinct selling volume showed up at 11:48.............gee what FUD hit piece is out now?
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