Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Base Model Y (white or MSM) has an projected delivery date of April 2023 - July 2023. Add 20" rims that shifts to Jan 2023 - April 2023. So for most, if you order now, you probably won't get it until next year anyways. Anyone that is projected to get it within the next few months have probably locked in a much lower price so cancelling to reorder and get it with the $7,500 credit isn't much of an incentive.

Yup... I think at most we are looking at $2500 for the majority of customers and if it becomes an issue, Tesla can simply offer $1250 or free supercharging and sway the decision.

That said, I'll be watching the performance Ys in my area... if they suddenly have a glut and are getting a discount in Nov/Dec, I'll be grabbing one.

 

[WolfHero]

If you're looking for a fund that holds TSLA, BPTRX is ~46% TSLA and ~7% SpaceX as of July 31st.

View attachment 838517

Baron's funds are Mutual Funds and not ETF. They may not be available outside of USA. I've asked my investment account's advisor (under one of the big Canadian bank), and was told their funds are not avaialble to us.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sigh..........more of the same.

TSLA was outperforming it's beta this morning, was 1 to 1 with the Nasdaq. Now underperforming it's beta. They'll probably manage to take TSLA down 3X the Nasdaq in a short while. This thing's just gonna be naked shorted until probably 2-3 days before the "record" date for the split, then the stock will pop to 940/share (the high before the obvious short/bear raid on Friday) as all the naked shorts are covered and then they'll initiate the naked shorts all over again right after the record date.

I doubt the CPI number tomorrow even really does much for TSLA specifically unless the CPI shows inflation dropping a drastic way.

 

[henchman24]

For tomorrow... the targets look pretty clear to me on the Nasdaq. The immediate upside is ~12,850 and the downside is ~12,300... each of those give a chance for aggressive moves after depending on which way the CPI data goes. Breaking on the upside gives strength to this rally where room all the way to 13,600 is there (13k and 13.3 are likely big fights). Breaking down of 12,300 would put 11,600 in sight.

 

[Krugerrand]

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

Woohoo!!

 

[henchman24]

Sigh..........more of the same.

TSLA was outperforming it's beta this morning, was 1 to 1 with the Nasdaq. Now underperforming it's beta. They'll probably manage TSLA to down 3X the Nasdaq in a short while. This thing's just gonna be naked shorted until probably 2-3 days before the "record" date for the split, then the stock will pop to 940/share (the high before the obvious short/bear raid on Friday) as all the naked shorts are covered and then they'll initiate the naked shorts all over again right after the record date.

I doubt the CPI number tomorrow even really does much for TSLA specifically unless the CPI shows inflation dropping a drastic way.

You wanted movement with the beta!!

CPI will move the whole market and Tesla will be along for the ride either way. It is too pivotal to the forces moving things right now. Any sign it isn't cooling as fast as the market wants will bring in more fear of the Fed maintaining aggressive rate increases... but a massive cooling would send a signal the Fed may pause. The jobs market being as hot as it still is and the labor unit cost surprise today, to me, signal we may not see the cooling we want tomorrow.

 

[woodisgood]

Sigh..........more of the same.

TSLA was outperforming it's beta this morning, was 1 to 1 with the Nasdaq. Now underperforming it's beta. They'll probably manage to take TSLA down 3X the Nasdaq in a short while. This thing's just gonna be naked shorted until probably 2-3 days before the "record" date for the split, then the stock will pop to 940/share (the high before the obvious short/bear raid on Friday) as all the naked shorts are covered and then they'll initiate the naked shorts all over again right after the record date.

I doubt the CPI number tomorrow even really does much for TSLA specifically unless the CPI shows inflation dropping a drastic way.

MMs were going to be ready with a plan for this split. They’re a fool me once kind of crowd.

 

[Usain]

Another potential small but long term benefit to Tesla from the bill is from the potential increase in sale price of off-lease and trade-in Teslas, if the demand remains high for used vehicles, which I think it will.

SEC. 13402. CREDIT FOR PREVIOUSLY-OWNED CLEAN VEHICLES.
The term ‘previously-owned clean vehicle’ means a motor vehicle—
‘‘(A) the model year of which is at least 2
years earlier than the calendar year in which
the taxpayer acquires such vehicle
‘‘(ii) is a motor vehicle which—
‘‘(I) satisfies the requirements
under subparagraphs (A) and (B) of
section 30B(b)(3), and
‘‘(II) has a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds.
(C) which is the first transfer since the date of the enactment of this section
to a qualified buyer other than the person with whom the original use of such vehicle commenced

Max amount is $4000 or 30% of the sale price

I brought this up yesterday as I was reading through the bill. It turns out that the cap on used cars is 25K. So it wouldn't affect most used Teslas in the near future.

But it's nice to know that it will prop up the resale value in the long term. There are no restrictions about mineral sourcing for used EVs. So the Tesla you own today will eventually qualify for the credit if you hold on long enough.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

MMs were going to be ready with a plan for this split. They’re a fool me once kind of crowd.

I don't really know why Tesla went about this split the way they did. So easy to see how Wall St was and is going to negate any effects from the split. They didn't even do a proposal to increase the number of shares to allow them to do further surprise splits

But it is what it is.

 

[Ogre]

Keep in mind if too many people try to push back their EV purchases in the 4th quarter, Tesla can likely accelerate shipments to corporate fleets, like Hertz and Autonomy into 2022. There are a lot of little levers they can pull to keep sales moving.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You wanted movement with the beta!!

CPI will move the whole market and Tesla will be along for the ride either way. It is too pivotal to the forces moving things right now. Any sign it isn't cooling as fast as the market wants will bring in more fear of the Fed maintaining aggressive rate increases... but a massive cooling would send a signal the Fed may pause. The jobs market being as hot as it still is and the labor unit cost surprise today, to me, signal we may not see the cooling we want tomorrow.

There's been many month long declines in commodity prices across all sectors since March/April. Oil/Gas finally succumbed the same thing starting in July. Eventually this has to show up in the CPI. Job/Wages don't have that big of an impact that they would negate the falling of commodity prices everywhere.

If anything, the way this is playing is how the "inflation is transitory" thought it would, just about 6 months later than they thought it would.

But as I mentioned, unless the CPI comes in way lower than expected, it won't matter to TSLA. It's been specifically targeted over the past week in terms of capping on all macro rally days and dropped hard on the other days. If the CPI comes in low and the macro's rally, TSLA will continue to be capped hard. Wall St making sure TSLA stays in the downtrend channel it's been in since Nov of 2021. This thing is set to trade like a dog until a mother of a breakout's happens. Which will likely be from Q3 earnings or Q4 P/D numbers.

 

[UncaNed]

Your typical Model Y family doesn't have an AGI over $300,000. And possibly saving $7500 is a big incentive to wait.

I personally put off taking delivery of my second Tesla in December just to see if congress would act so I could get the credit. I knew it would mean going to the back of the line and waiting for several more months.

Now with more certainty about getting the tax credit, I think a lot more customers will decide to wait.

 

[ToTheStars]

I'm buying BBBY this morning. Sure, following the WSB gang isn't sound financial advice, but it worked out pretty well for GME.

Did you cancel the order or get out early?

 

[henchman24]

I don't really know why Tesla went about this split the way they did. So easy to see how Wall St was and is going to negate any effects from the split. They didn't even do a proposal to increase the number of shares to allow them to do further surprise splits

But it is what it is.

Tesla's motivation is more about right pricing the stock for employees than anything else. They clearly want the stock to be in the ~300-500 range... once it gets out of there for too long they want it to split back into that area.

The proposal limiting the shares for future splits is also about dilution as well. There is already FUD out there on secondaries being needed to fund the next factories. Having 10b in shares authorized would amplify that idea.

 

[SarahsDad]

If you're looking for a fund that holds TSLA, BPTRX is ~46% TSLA and ~7% SpaceX as of July 31st.

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I just realized this is a great way to get exposure to SpaceX and more exposure to TSLA if you can’t buy the stock directly. I have a self directed brokerage account for my retirement fund at work, but it’s strangely limited to mutual funds only. Looks like I’ll be switching some of my index funds to BPTRX!

 

[WADan]

Except that dual income households have a $300k income threshold, not a $150k threshold. That's good money, even in California.

Regardless, the status of these cars will be unclear until much later in the year. This is an end-of-the-year issue only.

How much wages have increased in King County and across WA

Strong demand for workers and hiring difficulties across different sectors drove Washington's wage growth in 2021 to the second largest increase on record.

www.seattletimes.com

Average annual IT salary = $270K. It’s not unusual that both spouses are in IT around the Seattle area.

 

[woodisgood]

MMs were going to be ready with a plan for this split. They’re a fool me once kind of crowd.

I don't really know why Tesla went about this split the way they did. So easy to see how Wall St was and is going to negate any effects from the split. They didn't even do a proposal to increase the number of shares to allow them to do further surprise splits

But it is what it is.

Well, for starters the primary purpose of the split from Tesla’s perspective is to make shares more affordable for employees/ESPP, and secondarily for retail. I don’t think Elon or the board views striking back at MMs/Wall St as particularly necessary at this time, as much as those of us who follow everything so closely would disagree.

As to why it was disclosed so early, I think info got out in one form or another (or Tesla perceived that) and they needed to make it public to avoid further entanglements with the SEC. Just speculation on my part.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

How much wages have increased in King County and across WA

Strong demand for workers and hiring difficulties across different sectors drove Washington's wage growth in 2021 to the second largest increase on record.

www.seattletimes.com

Average annual IT salary = $270K. It’s not unusual that both spouses are in IT around the Seattle area.

Pretty much for the west coast, most individuals and couples won’t fit within the income requirements. Then add in big metropolitan hubs on east coast like nyc and DC where individual/couple incomes are also well above the EV bill limits

 

[henchman24]

There's been many month long declines in commodity prices across all sectors since March/April. Oil/Gas finally succumbed the same thing starting in July. Eventually this has to show up in the CPI. Job/Wages don't have that big of an impact that they would negate the falling of commodity prices everywhere.

If anything, the way this is playing is how the "inflation is transitory" thought it would, just about 6 months later than they thought it would.

But as I mentioned, unless the CPI comes in way lower than expected, it won't matter to TSLA. It's been specifically targeted over the past week in terms of capping on all macro rally days and dropped hard on the other days. If the CPI comes in low and the macro's rally, TSLA will continue to be capped hard. Wall St making sure TSLA stays in the downtrend channel it's been in since Nov of 2021. This thing is set to trade like a dog until a mother of a breakout's happens. Which will likely be from Q3 earnings or Q4 P/D numbers.

We've seen a lot of drops and I agree with the main premise... but I think we are more likely to see commodities impact PPI first and we've yet to see that tick over. Possible this is the month that they turn over, but the expectations are built in that this turnover has happened and fairly aggressively. .3% MoM from .7% is a pretty substantial drop... so the market is expecting pretty much what you are already. To surpass expectations would be a very strong move in inflation and unexpected.

Tesla is being impacted after the run in July and August... runs up without breathers tend to have gravity impact them at some point. Once the gamma pressure died and day traders took their profits, a fall was inevitable. But the run since May has been very strong. If the overall market gains strength, Tesla is likely to capitalize on it too. Maybe not at the 3x beta you want... but 1.5-2x is pretty likely. If the market falls, Tesla will be hit harder than the overall market.

 

[Drumheller]

How much wages have increased in King County and across WA

Strong demand for workers and hiring difficulties across different sectors drove Washington's wage growth in 2021 to the second largest increase on record.

www.seattletimes.com

Average annual IT salary = $270K. It’s not unusual that both spouses are in IT around the Seattle area.

It absolutely is not. Maybe 1 or 2% of IT workers make that level of salary. You're in a tiny bubble that does not represent most people in this field.