Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[riverFox]

What looks odd about that mannequin hit test is that the car is running down a lane of orange cones with light colored stripes in the middle and the mannequin looks amazingly like a red cone. You have the orange pants on the mannequin, the light colored middle and then the rdish-orange cap. Then there's the green fence in the background. I strongly suspect that if you repeated the test but without the specific environment that Tesla's FSD would look much better. This may well be a case of trying various approaches until you can find an artificial weakness in the FSD software then doing "the test" on that known weakness scenario.
View attachment 838748

I love how Tesla's competitors are helping with the crowd-sourced testing effort.

 

[Usain]

ODowd literally tweeted that FSD beta will mow down children. Not "it could" or "risk of".
View attachment 838739

This might just show that FSD knows the difference between a real child and a fake one. From the picture, it doesn't look like a very good fake.

 

[Papafox]

Also, note the timing of the release of the test on various media sources. The release came just as TSLA was starting a recovery along with the NASDAQ. This bogus test allowed for some easy capping to keep TSLA from recovering with the rest of the market. Someone who is covering their short position this afternoon is awfully happy for this intervention. Remember, we don't trade in an honest casino. Keep your investment horizons long enough to not be snared in such trickery.

TSLA trading


QQQ trading

 

[Singuy]

Guaranteed they ran that test 50 times with slightly different colorations, configs, etc....until they got the Tesla to hit the mannequin.

So much work, I would have just pressed on the accelerator to override FSD.

 

[woodisgood]

O'Dowd has quite transparently shown he's willing to stop at nothing...quite literally he's gone mad. Shame on whichever media source published his garbage.

 

[EVDRVN]

I am absolutely not living in bubble. How about you go on glass door and look at even mid-level compensation at Microsoft/Apple/Google/FB/Intel/TI/etc....

Easily over 150k total compensation for an individual. Bare in mind, this is total compensation which counts as income. Meaning it's salary + annual cash/stock bonus + RSU sign bonus that's spread over 4 years. That all adds up to easily over 150k/annually for an individual in the tech space. Considering by far, tech workers making up a disproportional amount of buyers for Tesla's, this has a material impact on just how affected Tesla would be in Q4.



All of the tech companies have implemented geographic pay scales now. You can go live in a cheaper cost of living location, but you'll get less compensation.

Many of my friends got nailed on this, many people were using VPNs to look like they were in state.

 

[AndrewZ]

This might just show that FSD knows the difference between a real child and a fake one. From the picture, it doesn't look like a very good fake.

Ah yes the age old "FSD outsmarted the test" angle lol

People discussing the tax credits, I don't think these things are really intended to reduce costs for consumers buying existing vehicles or to line the pockets of manufacturers. Moving raw material mining/processing and component manufacturing out of cheap Chinese markets and other markets will drive up costs of these vehicles, you can be sure that domestically-mined and refined lithium or domestically-produced battery components will cost significantly more than their Chinese counterparts.

The real goal here is to subsidize the transition away from supply chains built around China or other unfriendly countries. Doing so will cost more, and the government is looking to offset those costs and incentivize the move for manufacturers without jacking up prices for consumers buying new EVs that incorporate more domestic content.

The next challenge will be figuring out how much pricing power these friendly countries have with their resources -- any friendly country that produces battery minerals/components will likely see much higher demand for those products and will likely be able to command even higher prices for them, because there will be a greater rush for minerals/components necessary to qualify for these rebates.



The US will also likely not be alone in this move, as basically every civilized free democratic country will be looking at China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc through the same lens. The last thing any of us want is those ^^ countries controlling the supply chain for batteries.

 

[Beltsbear]

I am absolutely not living in bubble. How about you go on glass door and look at even mid-level compensation at Microsoft/Apple/Google/FB/Intel/TI/etc....

Easily over 150k total compensation for an individual. Bare in mind, this is total compensation which counts as income. Meaning it's salary + annual cash/stock bonus + RSU sign bonus that's spread over 4 years. That all adds up to easily over 150k/annually for an individual in the tech space. Considering by far, tech workers making up a disproportional amount of buyers for Tesla's, this has a material impact on just how affected Tesla would be in Q4.



All of the tech companies have implemented geographic pay scales now. You can go live in a cheaper cost of living location, but you'll get less compensation.

Moving the goalposts here. Maybe just because you are used to working at top tech companies you think everyone does. Again, 90% of the tech world does not work at these companies. You know the first five companies you listed turn away fifty applicants to one job. The income limit is basically irreverent to Tesla. Nobody gets a tax credit now... and Jan 1'st, 90% of people will. Those 10% who are above the income limit, don't need the credit and it is not a major factor for them in deciding car purchases.

 

[MP3Mike]

What looks odd about that mannequin hit test is that the car is running down a lane of orange cones with light colored stripes in the middle and the mannequin looks amazingly like a red cone. You have the orange pants on the mannequin, the light colored middle and then the redish-orange cap. Then there's the green fence in the background. I strongly suspect that if you repeated the test but without the specific environment that Tesla's FSD would look much better. This may well be a case of trying various approaches until you can find an artificial weakness in the FSD software then doing "the test" on that known weakness scenario.
View attachment 838748

And their test procedures show that they are not following the requirements for using FSD beta:

5. The test driver’s hands were never on the wheel

Not that it would probably make any difference, but they aren't using the software as it is intended to be used/tested.

I have seen other tester videos showing it stopping for/avoiding cardboard boxes, even fairly small ones. So my guess is that they picked the size/shape of the mannequin very carefully. And of course all of the cones are sort of out there and put it in what would be considered a construction zone, which I think is specifically something that it is listed as not being able to be fully handle at this time.

Edit: Yep, their mannequin is of a "1-year old", intended to be used to help display baby clothes.

 

[ZeApelido]

I think @Singuy meant "algo" not Argo.

and argo went nuts on selling

Must...resist...making a joke.

Eh nevermind.

The foreman points out a huge pile of sand and says to the Italian, "You're in charge of sweeping."

To the Scotsman he says, "You're in charge of shovelling."

And to the Chinese man he says, "You're in charge of supplies."

So the foreman goes away for a couple of hours and when he returns, the pile of sand is untouched. He asks the Italian, "Why didn't you sweep any of it?"

He replies "I no hava no broom, you saida to the Chinese guy that he wasa ina charge of supplies, but he hasa disappeared and I no coulda finda him nowhere."

The foreman turns to the Scotsman and says, "And you, I thought I told you to shovel this pile."

He replied, "Aye, ye did lad, bit ah couldnae git masel' a shuvl! Ye left thon wee Chinese mannie in chairge of supplies, bit ah couldnae fin' him onywhar."

The foreman is really pissed off now and storms off towards the pile of sand to look for the Chinese guy. As he approaches the mound, the Chinese guy leaps out from behind the sand and yells…

"SUPPLIES!"

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also, note the timing of the release of the test on various media sources. The release came just as TSLA was starting a recovery along with the NASDAQ. This bogus test allowed for some easy capping to keep TSLA from recovering with the rest of the market. Someone who is covering their short position this afternoon is awfully happy for this intervention. Remember, we don't trade in an honest casino. Keep your investment horizons long enough to not be snared in such trickery.
View attachment 838751
TSLA trading

View attachment 838752
QQQ trading

We all should have known and be prepared for more of these over the next two weeks, right up until the split. Bears/Shorts have had months to prepare for this split.

 

[EVMeister]

Suspiciously round number to close a day of suspiscious trading.

 

[wipster]

Article about Tesla's FSD hitting a child came out a hour ago and argo went nuts on selling

...oh wait it's a child mannequin
...oh wait it's by the same people doing commercials trying to get FSD banned.

There was a similar test done by January 7, 2022 by a Taylor Ogan reported on Twitter and CarBuzz comparing a Model 3 and a Lexus using Lidar... seemed like a set up then, probably the same now.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I'm buying BBBY this morning. Sure, following the WSB gang isn't sound financial advice, but it worked out pretty well for GME.

Anyone coming here to pump a meme stock automatically ends up on my ignore list. Credibility is lost IMHO.

I'm here looking for information on TSLA, more specifically information on Tesla, to ensure that there is not something that I am missing, to ensure reasons for justifying its current stock valuation are justifiable, and maintaining my investment is sound. There is no better place than TMC for this trove of information. So far, so good. Tesla remains strong and TSLA remains undervalued. Carry on.

 

[traxila]

Second days in a row with way below average volumes for the big techs, some of them below 50% (e.g. AMZN 37M vs 80M)!

QQQ 38M vs 65M
GOOG 14M vs 30M
AAPL 65M vs 80M
META 17M vs 30M
TSLA 28M vs 31M

TSLA was at average volume. If TSLA had traded at the other's volume averages the past two days approximately 30 million fewer TSLA shares would traded hands.

 

[philw1776]

This might just show that FSD knows the difference between a real child and a fake one. From the picture, it doesn't look like a very good fake.

Good point. I won't believe this FUD claim until they repeat it with a real child, running the tyke over.

 

[wipster]

ODowd literally tweeted that FSD beta will mow down children. Not "it could" or "risk of".
View attachment 838739

Whole Mars Catalog posted several videos in 2021 where FSD stopped the car when a real child and a real adult jumped out in front of his Tesla "Tesla's FSD Beta V9 Stopped Car When Kid Suddenly Ran Out In Front Of Vehicle - CleanTechnica" Tesla's FSD Beta V9 Stopped Car When Kid Suddenly Ran Out In Front Of Vehicle

So there's that...

 

[loquitur]

This might just show that FSD knows the difference between a real child and a fake one. From the picture, it doesn't look like a very good fake.

For more realistic "VRUs", there would be articulated limb movements which are usually detected
for the "isPedestrian" attribute. Even a kid on a skateboard who doesn't move their feet like that
"kid-disguised-as-a-stationary-cone" would at least have some velocity. Same with kids in
Halloween costumes. So artificial!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Whole Mars Catalog posted several videos in 2021 where FSD stopped the car when a real child and a real adult jumped out in front of his Tesla "Tesla's FSD Beta V9 Stopped Car When Kid Suddenly Ran Out In Front Of Vehicle - CleanTechnica" Tesla's FSD Beta V9 Stopped Car When Kid Suddenly Ran Out In Front Of Vehicle

So there's that...

There's a fundamental difference between a moving object and a "completely" stationary object. They know that FSD won't hit a moving object and that there are situations where FSD could hit a stationary object.........and they're clearing taking advantage of this.

 

[SN_8]

This might just show that FSD knows the difference between a real child and a fake one. From the picture, it doesn't look like a very good fake.

Exactly correct. What is hard to see in the video is that there was an endangered bat in back seat, and slamming on the brakes could have harmed the animal. It determined that hitting the mannequin was the optimal solution.