Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
No tundra over here, SF East Bay Area in California. Yesterday 105F peak this year 113F, and in the winter usually drops to 30F. Homes here are notoriously badly insulated because of the earthquake friendly light architecture and less extreme weather when they were built in the 80's.

Sounds like you life in a sweet spot, and I am with you in that I did not replace our gas water heater since it only uses $10/month - surprising to me that your heating doesn't push you past that significantly even when used lightly but maybe your gas prices are also lower.

Our $1600/year cash flow for the gas furnace is what I aimed to redirect with the heatpump.

Great to hear you don't even need net metering, wouldn't pencil out the same way for us without it.

It's a new home here, reasonably-well insulated (by SoCal standards). The cost to pull out and replace the HVAC/NG Furnace combo units is about $40k (it's a large home with 2 units). Last year we used something like less than $800 in NG overall . . . so yeah . . . the units will be well past their expected lifetime (and mine!) before they even came close to break-even. Now, if one dies and has to be replaced, that's a totally different story.

Regarding not needing net-metering - go to the Tesla Energy sub-forum of TMC, and look around about the SGIP rebates. CA state rebates paid for the bulk of our 4 powerwalls through rebates administered through the utility. There are some interesting loopholes that our neighbors have used to get as many as 4 powerwalls fully paid for by the state program (i.e. medical needs - any device like a CPAP or something that can't be without power would qualify someone).

My last OT post on this, promise investment friends.
 
Granted this is my region and I dont supercharge much. But I just drove from KS to the North Carolina coast on a saturday and Sunday and did not have to wait once at a SC either way. Family of 4 loaded model Y to the gills and it cost right around $110 each way (~1300 miles) via Super chargers. We also stayed at hotels that had a Wall charger, so that cut down on cost.
Drive I-35 and you'll have a different experience unless you luck out. This wasn't the case until last year when the lack of Supercharger locations and the influx of new Teslas made this an issue.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nocturnal
As someone who designs commercial HVAC systems for a living, I don't completely agree with the sudden push to go all electric. We'll get there in time, but I can tell you that with the amount of gas used for heating large buildings and manufacturing processes, we won't be weaned off of gas for decades. Sure, it can be done, but to replace the heating capacity that can be delivered with a small gas line, may result in doubling or tripling a building's electric service, to meet the heating load, at a significant cost increase.

That said, I don't see any reason to replace perfectly good gas appliances, like a cooking range, to replace it with electric.
Even just making the standard a dual fuel Heat pump system would improve efficiency and drop gas demand dramatically over time.
 
I find it hard to be so polite. I call it a toxic mixture of market manipulation, BS, and confirmation bias. The meme stocks are a natural outgrowth of TA, and TA a natural outgrowth of social media stupidity.

Lol, I'm afraid you've got your centuries mixed up. T/A far pre-dates social media. In fact, a treatise on the subject was published as a textbook back in 1948:

The Pioneers of Technical Analysis | Investopedia

Back in the '40s social media was radio. We didn't even have widespread TV adoption yet. :p
 
I would bet you one TSLA share that I have a smaller carbon footprint than you. That's how confident I am in my "environmental friendliness".

Did you not ready how LITTLE natural gas we use in our house? I don't live in the frozen tundra like you, we hardly ever turn on the gas heater. I'm not ripping out the NG stove to cut the $10/mo NG usage that is has. The ovens are electric, so no need to do a swap there.

I'm a NET EXPORTER of Solar, to the tune of 2000-3000 kwh/yr. Plus, I don't utilize net metering, I run from our power-walls overnight, and charge them from an oversized solar array during the day. ALL of that penciled out financially, with a 10y or less payback. It was good for the environment, it made financial sense.

We drive only EVs (and ONLY Teslas at that), and have for the past 7 years now. I've done my part for my family, my kids and future generations. If someone wants me to go that last 2-3%, it MUST pencil out financially, period.
That is impressive! We are a trifle similar in housing and have NG in one house, but we have no a/c in Rio de Janeiro, the only house we know of that does not use it. Both EV's get their KW from solar.

Where we fail excessively is in very frequent flying. I don't know how to cure that lifelong obsession. AT least we no longer have our own plane and I no longer pilot one. We use KLM a lot and they allow carbon offset, FWIW, but we still pretty much destroy any environmental credibility with air travel! We eat no red meat so that might help??

Personally I claim Tesla shares as evidence of my attempt to counter my horrible life style.
 
Even just making the standard a dual fuel Heat pump system would improve efficiency and drop gas demand dramatically over time.
For residential systems, I agree, but for commercial systems, that's relatively impractical. A 2 million BTU per hour boiler costs $50k and can be installed in a small room. Try getting that much heating capacity out of heat pumps and you would be shocked at the cost and size.
 
Your post though is kinda silly though because you talk in absolutes.

Look I'm probably one of the most bearish ones here about the stock over the next couple of months. I think the loss of investor confidence (which includes the unwillingness of institutional investors to buy in) from Elon's actions/antics is legit. TSLA is clearly back in the downtrend channel and I think we're stuck in it even if the macro's break substantially higher. I also don't see the Moody's/S&P credit upgrade coming until after Q3 earnings or maybe even Q4 earnings. And I wasn't kidding when I said I could see Moody's/S&P using "an erratic CEO" as a reason for not doing the upgrade until Q1/Q2 2023. It's that stupid.

But Tesla the company could absolutely post earnings in Q3 that cause the stock to be at back at it's ATH in Q4. We could literally see an exact repeat of Q3/Q4 last year. Remember the stock went from 775 to 1250 in a month......and that was based on a stupid reason (Hertz deal). Q3 could provide the same rally but with a ton more substance and buffer in the P/E. As in TSLA at 1250 after Q3's earnings will result in a P/E way below what the P/E was after Q3 2021's earnings.

The real question is how low can Wall St push TSLA over these next two months.

I recall it's more typical for TSLA share price to climb higher in anticipation of good earnings. Without looking it up, it seems like this is the most common scenario going into Production and Delivery Reports and Earnings that have high expectations (as Q3 and Q4 currently do). Whether the market thinks the results are good enough to hold those gains, is another question. The overall market is reappraising whether the recent market bullishness has legs or not which has little to do with TSLA. Only the most short-sighted, minute by minute trader would conclude TSLA is in a downtrend channel. Most of us do not trade TSLA on such short timeframes because, history shows, that's a good way to get burnt.

Also, I don't consider any loss of investor confidence that may have occurred due to Elon's actions/antics to be legitimate, at least not from the perspective of an investor that cares about financial results. I have never noticed that Elon's antics are bad for the results he delivers. Investors are the judge of what a company is worth, that doesn't mean collectively they are good at it. If investors were good at valuing companies, share prices would not have the volatility they do because a company grows value gradually as they add production capacity, increase efficiencies and expand their customer base. Intrinsic value of a company does not jump around wildly with no news and no new developments, like the share price does. That's all the proof you need that investors are not good at valuing a company like TSLA. If they were, TSLA would not be worth 21 times its value exactly three years ago. Perhaps eight times as valuable, not 21 times. Tesla was a screaming buy in the summer of 2019 for anyone with eyes to see. Most investors were blind to that. History has shown that the last thing an investor who wants out-sized gains should worry themselves silly with, is investor confidence. Because that is something that turns on a dime and has little to do with intrinsic value.

Remember, even when a stock is in a strong up channel, it's a given that it will decline two or three days in a row periodically to take a breather from recent gains. This is normal and expected, it does not define a new down-channel trend until it has moved much more than the small amount of consolidation we have seen recently. Saying it's "clearly back in the downtrend channel" pretends to own a crystal ball that we know doesn't exist. The nature of the market is that it tries to fool as many people as possible, as often as possible.
 
Last edited:
It's a big problem in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. There are often waits to charge. I got lucky on the last trip (end of July) in that I was able to get the only open spot at Ardmore with no wait. After I plugged in, six more Teslas arrived and had to wait. Tesla either needs more sites, V3/4 Superchargers, or double the number of V2 chargers. So the problem is certainly not only in California.
I've never had to wait in Kansas or Nebraska. I can't speak to Oklahoma as it is never on a route I go, but I've visited the I70 and I80 chargers many times and never had an issue waiting. I do think the speeds of the chargers needs to improve as many are 150kw stations and 250s are really only just opening up in Nebraska and only near KC on I70. The rural charging in both areas needs a lot of work though. Rural areas anywhere west of the Mississippi and outside California need a lot of work.

On the overall market... this is the weakest the market has looked in a while. Bears will use this to attempt to get back to 12,800 and 4,200.
 
It's a big problem in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. There are often waits to charge. I got lucky on the last trip (end of July) in that I was able to get the only open spot at Ardmore with no wait. After I plugged in, six more Teslas arrived and had to wait. Tesla either needs more sites, V3/4 Superchargers, or double the number of V2 chargers. So the problem is certainly not only in California.
I haven't had to wait in KS or MO so far, so for me my bigger complaint is just lack of stations. In particular I'd like at least 1 more between KC and Lake Ozark. There are options but it's 30mins or so out of the way.

Most of the stations in this part of the country are 6-8 stalls so I could see waiting during holidays sooner or later. Tons of Teslas in KC now.

I know they are expanding quickly, but it sure seems that Tesla is always behind on service center and SC rollout.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jerry33 and wtlloyd
I recall it's more typical for TSLA share price to climb higher in anticipation of good earnings. Without looking it up, it seems like this is the most common scenario going into Production and Delivery Reports and Earnings that have high expectations (as Q3 and Q4 currently do). Whether the market thinks the results are good enough to hold those gains, is another question. The overall market is reappraising whether the recent market bullishness has legs or not which has little to do with TSLA. Only the most short-sighted, minute by minute trader would conclude TSLA is in a downtrend channel. Most of us do not trade TSLA on such short timeframes because, history shows, that's a good way to get burnt.

Also, I don't consider any loss of investor confidence that may have occurred due to Elon's actions/antics to be legitimate, at least not from the perspective of an investor that cares about financial results. I have never noticed that Elon's antics are bad for the results he delivers. Investors are the judge of what a company is worth, that doesn't mean collectively they are good at it. If investors were good at valuing companies, share prices would not have the volatility they do because a company grows value gradually as they add production capacity, increase efficiencies and expand their customer base. Intrinsic value of a company does not jump around wildly with no news and no new developments, like the share price does. That's all the proof you need that investors are not good at valuing a company like TSLA. If they were, TSLA would not be worth 21 times its value exactly three years ago. Perhaps eight times as valuable, not 21 times. Tesla was a screaming buy in the summer of 2019 for anyone with eyes to see. Most investors were blind to that. History has shown that the last thing an investor who wants out-sized gains should worry themselves silly with, is investor confidence. because it turns on a dime.

Remember, even when a stock is in a strong up channel, it's a given that it will decline two or three days in a row periodically to take a breather from recent gains. This is normal and expected, it does not define a new down-channel trend until it has moved much more than the small amount of consolidation we have seen recently. Saying it's "clearly back in the downtrend channel" pretends to own a crystal ball.
This seems reasonable and I like to think this is how it will play out...

With the caveat of the historical Mid-Term elections SPX chart posted a few days ago. This indicated a possibility of historical factors showing potential for a lull or drop through September, then steeply rising in October through elections and the rest of Q4.

But this is TechAnalysis (so tempted to abbreviate by leaving the "ysis" off) of the SPX and could easily be irrelevant to TSLA on it's own, even if the SPX repeats that path. However, I'd not be disappointed to see that trend unfold for TSLA as the upside would be worth the wait.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: EnzoXYZ
Tesla is not currently in a downward channel. Tesla broke out of its downward channel on May 27th. There was a fight and it re-entered the channel in June to fully breakout on June 21st (a new upward channel started a week earlier). From there it entered a touch of consolidation before heading up as we entered July. To break that upward channel we'd have to fall all the way back to ~820. A steeper upward channel started midJuly and Tesla would need to get down to ~882 to break that channel. This lower bound has been confirmed multiple times... even recently on the 9th and 11th it touched this lower bound (after hitting the upper on the 3rd and 4th). On Friday, this channel should close around 897. The upper bound on Friday of the channel is ~1004. During this run, the top has been visited a few times and broken, but never held for any real length of time.

Channels break all the time, but there isn't evidence that this upward channel has broken.
 
Toyota Motor Corp. suspended operations at its Sichuan plant in China because of a power shortage, the Kyodo News reported on Tuesday.
The local authority has ordered the automaker to suspend operations, the report said.

Volkswagen AG also has a plant in Sichuan. The automaker’s China spokesperson said its factory in Chengdu is affected by power shortages.

CATL’s factory in Yibin, Sichuan Province, stopped production due to power brownouts, and the duration of power brownouts rationing lasted from August 15 to August 20.

Foxconn is suspending operations at a factory in the city of Chengdu from August 15 to 20 under government order.

Source: Google for Sichuan automaker, foxconn

Nothing on Tesla

[Edit: Note - According to Grace Tao, Tesla's vice president of external affairs, more than 95% of the parts used at the Giga Shanghai plant come from local suppliers. Hopefully the heatwave is over by 8/20 and no Tesla supplier in that important industrial province are severely affected ]
On Twitter only: The Sichuan heatwave/power-restriction could be affecting Tesla:

No confirmation elsewhere yet that I could find.

 
Our gas tankless water heater was purchased in 1999 so it was replaced with electric and at the same time we went to a heat-pump HVAC and cut of the gas. I didn't go heat-pump water heater because (as far as I could tell) all tank type. Tank type water heaters are just garbage. You pay to heat the water, you pay to keep the water hot, and then because you have to have the temperature up as high as possible to try to avoid running out, the cold water has to be run to cool it to the correct temperature. Tank type water heaters are a lose-lose situation.

We bought the house of the parents in law when they’re retired and moved to the country side. Every year we have been replacing all the gas powered heating, stoves, renovated all the windows that let the air through. Then I see my colleague buying a brand new condo and he’s so proud to show us the gas powered stove they installed and how much the cooking is better. I paid to get my electric panel to be replaced to install electric stove and install 2 EV charging stations and install electric water heaters and electric heating, then in new constructions they are installing gas appliances, still in 2022. Sometimes I do not understand why rational people would chose that.
 
@StealthP3D
a small but significant (to a few folks, perhaps some oldsters) quibble
the low price for TSLA on 7/5/2010 (OK, 12 years, not 10years ago, picky, picky, picky) was
$3.00/share (somebody bought some and vol was very high in this initial time period)
from there to $1,200/share (split adjusted was ==>400x<== not a mere 100x
✋ 💎 🤚 :) :cool:

Yeah, I know. I was trying not to cherry-pick a low price that very few actually got. And I should have said "over" 100X.

And, holy Hellebore, you don't have to be an "oldster" for something only 12 years ago to be in play!
 
I recall it's more typical for TSLA share price to climb higher in anticipation of good earnings. Without looking it up, it seems like this is the most common scenario going into Production and Delivery Reports and Earnings that have high expectations (as Q3 and Q4 currently do). Whether the market thinks the results are good enough to hold those gains, is another question. The overall market is reappraising whether the recent market bullishness has legs or not which has little to do with TSLA. Only the most short-sighted, minute by minute trader would conclude TSLA is in a downtrend channel. Most of us do not trade TSLA on such short timeframes because, history shows, that's a good way to get burnt.

Also, I don't consider any loss of investor confidence that may have occurred due to Elon's actions/antics to be legitimate, at least not from the perspective of an investor that cares about financial results. I have never noticed that Elon's antics are bad for the results he delivers. Investors are the judge of what a company is worth, that doesn't mean collectively they are good at it. If investors were good at valuing companies, share prices would not have the volatility they do because a company grows value gradually as they add production capacity, increase efficiencies and expand their customer base. Intrinsic value of a company does not jump around wildly with no news and no new developments, like the share price does. That's all the proof you need that investors are not good at valuing a company like TSLA. If they were, TSLA would not be worth 21 times its value exactly three years ago. Perhaps eight times as valuable, not 21 times. Tesla was a screaming buy in the summer of 2019 for anyone with eyes to see. Most investors were blind to that. History has shown that the last thing an investor who wants out-sized gains should worry themselves silly with, is investor confidence. Because that is something that turns on a dime and has little to do with intrinsic value.

Remember, even when a stock is in a strong up channel, it's a given that it will decline two or three days in a row periodically to take a breather from recent gains. This is normal and expected, it does not define a new down-channel trend until it has moved much more than the small amount of consolidation we have seen recently. Saying it's "clearly back in the downtrend channel" pretends to own a crystal ball that we know doesn't exist. The nature of the market is that it tries to fool as many people as possible, as often as possible.
I’m not going to argue back n forth about the impact on invest confidence and willingness of institutional investors to buy in. I think it’s pretty clear there’s little actual buying interest for TSLA amongst institutional investors at this valuation and to me, it has everything go do with the noise around Elon. Obviously you don’t agree, we’re not going to agree on this.
Tesla is not currently in a downward channel. Tesla broke out of its downward channel on May 27th. There was a fight and it re-entered the channel in June to fully breakout on June 21st (a new upward channel started a week earlier). From there it entered a touch of consolidation before heading up as we entered July. To break that upward channel we'd have to fall all the way back to ~820. A steeper upward channel started midJuly and Tesla would need to get down to ~882 to break that channel. This lower bound has been confirmed multiple times... even recently on the 9th and 11th it touched this lower bound (after hitting the upper on the 3rd and 4th). On Friday, this channel should close around 897. The upper bound on Friday of the channel is ~1004. During this run, the top has been visited a few times and broken, but never held for any real length of time.

Channels break all the time, but there isn't evidence that this upward channel has broken.
I don’t know how you don’t see the giant down channel from November and that it’s very much still in place. The fact that it can’t break that channel even on the back of a stock split is very bearish, which is why I’ve been saying it’ll take Q3 earnings to do the trick. By that time though, you’ll be looking at a share prices in the low 800’s/high 700’s.
 
Yeah, I know. I was trying not to cherry-pick a low price that very few actually got. And I should have said "over" 100X.
it was a tiny minor quibble, if only i had HODL instead of "traded like an idiot" would have 10-15x number of shares
_and 34.5 million shares (well, actually ~7 million pre split) traded that day so somebody got or sold a lot at that price :)
(and I have been alive since the late 1940's so am old and creaky)(9 decades)
 
Last edited:
Cory making some bold prediction for tomorrow. He thinks the market will gap up over resistance and cause capitulation by the bears. He also expect a pretty sizable pull back after the squeeze as institutional bears start shorting after all retail bears are squeezed out.
so far it’s the opposite, i guess we’ll see how long the resistance can last
 
  • Like
Reactions: WattsHappening