Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Tesla press release email!!!

....3-for-1 stock split...

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla press release email!!!

....3-for-1 stock split...

That is just a re-release of the 8/5 press release. Not an additional split.

 

[ZeApelido]

Bear

https://twitter.com/x/status/1563291162114670600

 

[Buckminster]

Rear wheeled drive MY from Berlin; Is this the likely scenario?

• Tesla have got themselves a decent number of LFP Blade batteries from BYD
  • These have significantly poorer performance - hence slower 0-60
    • Therefore no intended future performance unlock
• Tesla have insufficient batteries in Europe
  • Hence smaller battery model
  • Hence using what they can get hold of
• Tesla will likely phase out this model when more batteries are available
• M3 SR would be better suited to this battery as it is more efficient and would be a better low end vehicle
• These batteries will be good for Robotaxis and storage so Tesla will want to find uses to grow the supply before switching over

 

[MC3OZ]

Bingo!

What do people think a Tesla phone will do, surf the ‘net better? Everything runs on Unix running a cousin of KHTML now. It’s a solved problem.

Musk likes hard problems, there is nothing difficult about a smartphone. It’s all known tech.

The battery part of smart phones could be improved, mainly longevity so the phone lasts longer.

I would not rule Tesla eventually doing a phone in or out, becuase eventually can be a long time, and priorities might change.

But for the next 5 years we can just about rule it out.

 

[jerry33]

The battery part of smart phones could be improved, mainly longevity so the phone lasts longer.

I would not rule Tesla eventually doing a phone in or out, becuase eventually can be a long time, and priorities might change.

But for the next 5 years we can just about rule it out.

There won't be a tPhone until it can be paired with Nuralink.

 

[H Mak]

It isn't being talked about because no one can believe it. It wasn't that long ago when the majority of the press said that Tesla couldn't manufacture cars at scale.

The thing that most industry observers don't realize is that Tesla had to work insanely hard at cost reduction to even come close to cost parity with ICE. They've been working on EV specific cost reduction since 2006. Now here comes Ford and GM just starting their EV cost reduction program in 2019 or whatever. It is a huge deficit. Their engineers had to initially focus on just building an EV. EV specific cost reduction programs are just starting for those companies.

It's like how the entire friggin retail industry ignored Amazon because Amazon wasn't making any money. You think Amazon was just sitting around content to never have a path to profitability? They were working on distribution cost reduction since they opened their doors in 1996. Eventually, their hundreds of innovations (a series of S curve implementations, where have I heard that before?) came together and now no one can touch them.

Another similarity between Amazon and Tesla. Early on Amazon bought Kiva, a warehouse robotics company, which gave them an edge over everyone. Likewise Tesla bought Grohman, and most recently Maxwell and have used both to gain an edge over everyone.

Unlike us, no one in the press knows any of this...

Speaking of not getting it, when Amazon's stock started getting momentum, Sears, the biggest retailer at that time said, "Amazon has to be selling every book on planet earth to justify its price". Anyone remember what happened to Sears?

 

[Usain]

Speaking of not getting it, when Amazon's stock started getting momentum, Sears, the biggest retailer at that time said, "Amazon has to be selling every book on planet earth to justify its price". Anyone remember what happened to Sears?

You mean that place where you have to put on your Sunday best?

 

[BornToFly]

…in the USA at least, inflation is probably heading to 15-20% in Europe unfortunately though.

Not because Europeans have too much money to spend. It's because of the war and a massive increase in energy costs (among other things). It's going to cause a global recession. So raising interest rates in the US seems incredibly stupid.

 

[unk45]

Only a gringo would think they could drive across the Darien Gap. Definitely no Lusophone would think that

The Darién Gap: What to know before you go. Wait. Maybe don't go

There are plenty of things that want to kill you in the Darién Gap. Dehydration, starvation, and getting lost should be the least of your worries.

www.themanual.com

My crazy Vietnam / Cleveland PD father did trek across it. Of course he also jumped out of a hotel window to chase after a "girlfriend" who ran way with the TV remote.

I'll wait for Boring Company to complete a tunnel first.

Every PAH trip uses the fairly reliable ferries. The entire route is done by ICE regularly, not every day, but not unusual.

The Ultimate Guide To Driving The Pan-American Highway | Fun Life Crisis

Thinking about driving the Pan American Highway? Our guide covers all the top things and tips you should know before heading out on a Pan-American road trip.

funlifecrisis.com

the welding shop solution always works in remote areas, but often has ‘unusual’ conneutrons.
At least two Teslas are probably now nearing the Darien Gap ferries, having made some odd diversions.
My acquaintences who made the trip in an ice went through, iirc, six sets of tires.
I drove Paris-Tehran and Sana’a- Jeddah. I will do this, despite my advanced age, but really want a Cybertruck to do it in proper style.

 

[steve3]

Data point - I ordered a Y LR exactly one year ago today, on 8/9/21. Estimated delivery window is now showing Aug 31 - Oct 5, (2022 just to be clear!) for that order. Same car is now $12k more, plus wait time, plus any more price increases. No motive to play that game.

Following up, I take delivery Monday 8/29. Hat tip & thanks to the poster who mentioned upgrading to FSD at order-date price, in app before delivery (“Manage,” then scroll down to FSD Upgrade to see your price; select EAP or FSD). In light of recent s/w progress & $3k price hike to $15k on 9/5, nice to get it for $10k. Posting in case anybody taking delivery soon wants to take advantage.

 

[thesmokingman]

Hyundai is crying over the IRA and apparently close to going legal. Their honcho flew to DC before its passing to try and lobby against it. I have to lmao at this. The companies... they suck. You are getting your asses handed to you by Tesla whom didn't get any incentives for years. Did Tesla whine about it? Hell no, in fact they think there shouldn't be any incentives.

Hyundai Really Got Screwed Over by the Inflation Reduction Act

The Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6's big debut has been ruined by changing credit criteria. Hyundai's chairman is lobbying Washington to reconsider.

jalopnik.com

Foreign automakers are big mad about the new EV tax credit

Hyundai and others are threatening to escalate the fight.

www.theverge.com

Chung Eui-sun, the billionaire scion of Hyundai’s founding family and the chair of the Hyundai Group, flew to Washington, DC, this week on an “urgent trade mission” to urge lawmakers to reconsider the law’s strict manufacturing and supply chain requirements. And South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin leaned on US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a call this week to make some allowances for foreign-made EVs

“Upon the enforcement of the Inflation Reduction Act, Korean EVs are immediately out of US tax incentive . . . and it could have a huge impact on EV exports from Korea,” said a statement from the Korea Automotive Industry Alliance, which represents companies including Hyundai.
The trade group wants EVs produced in South Korea to receive the “same incentives” as those produced in the US, Canada and Mexico.

Two South Korean automakers — Hyundai and its affiliate, Kia — are threatening legal action over the massive climate and energy bill. The two companies have the second-highest share of the EV market in the US, but they do not currently produce any EVs in the US, Canada, or Mexico.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Small correction, but the Plum Canyon area is in Santa Clarita, which is in Los Angeles County. Santa Clara is in the NorCal Bay Area. I recognized the roads in Locke's Santa Clarita test loop videos.

Shhh. You'll blow the cover...

 

[The Accountant]

Here is a video from Wu Wa with footage of Shanghai filmed today.
23 trailers in the logistics lot. Production looks good !!

 

[Surfer of Life]

The battery part of smart phones could be improved, mainly longevity so the phone lasts longer.

I would not rule Tesla eventually doing a phone in or out, becuase eventually can be a long time, and priorities might change.

But for the next 5 years we can just about rule it out.

Yeah, I’d like a phone with 4680’s. Or maybe a structural battery pack.

 

[JRP3]

Rumors of gen 2 4680 cell production

 

[Surfer of Life]

You mean that place where you have to put on your Sunday best?

At 1:54 there’s a satellite dish on the house -in 1968!?? Also I wanna buy the old Brady Bunch bus and give it Tesla battery’s and motors.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Spurious correlations exist everywhere. Most spurious correlations exist either because of comparing two variables with steady long-term time trends or because of small sample sizes, as is the case for all the examples in the Fast Company article you linked. There are many reasons to expect the correlation between the S&P 500 and TSLA is meaningful. Here are some:

1) TSLA has a moderately strong correlation on day-to-day movements when the index moves at least 1.5%, not just over a long time horizon, which means Tesla is actually coupled to the S&P 500 in a way that doesn't just depend on both of them having long-term trends.​

​

2) TSLA is a component of the S&P 500, and also the NASDAQ and the Russell. Passive index funds alone account for 20% of the US market for publicly-traded stocks. Then there are active funds benchmarked against the indices that also maintain a percentage of TSLA, and although some of them might be underweight on TSLA, as far as I know few of the funds have no TSLA at all. Thus, aggregate demand for stocks at any given time affects how much capital is flowing into or out of these funds, which then drives net buying or selling activity on TSLA in proportion to TSLA’s average percentage in the funds.​

​

3) TSLA has a colossal options market that probably amplifies volatility​

​

4) TSLA is the most-watched stock on the market, so if a big move in the market causes increased attention on stocks in general, a proportion of that attention is likely to go to TSLA​

​

5) TSLA is a meme stock with emotional retail traders chasing sentiment and probably buying shares and options on bullish market days and selling on bearish market days​

According to the SEC filing, Elon has never dumped 8 million shares in one day. The most he's done is 5.2 million, and on the 26th it was 4 million.

Elon has sold non-trivial amounts of TSLA stock on 21 days, not just April 26th, which had the most extreme TSLA action out of all the days in the sample. April 26th also had by far the greatest movement in the S&P 500, with a 2.4% decline from open to close. It is not representative of a typical day of Elon selling. Instead of cherry-picking, let’s examine all 21 selling days.

Spoiler: Summary statistics

TSLA price % change from open to close:​

n = 20​

Sample Average = -2.3%​

Std Dev = 4.8%​

95% confidence interval = [-4.4%, -0.2%]​

99% confidence interval = [-5.06%, 0.46%]​

TSLA price % change from the opening price on the day of the sale to the day 5 trading days after the sale:​

n = 20​

Sample Average = +0.9%​

Std Dev = 9.2%​

95% confidence interval = [-3.1%, 4.9%]​

99% confidence interval = [-4.4%, 6.2%]​

Spoiler: Table and plot with daily results

Date	Elon Sale Amount	Total TSLA Volume	Elon % of TSLA Volume	TSLA Open	TSLA Close	TSLA % Change	TSLA Close 5 trading days later	TSLA % Change 5 trading days later	S&P 500 Open	S&P 500 Close	S&P 500 % Change	TSLA Expected % Change Based on Linear Model of S&P 500 Influence	TSLA Deviation from Expected performance
8/9/2022	3,040,228	28,748,230	10.6%	870.88	850	-2.4%	919.69	5.60%	4133.11	4122.47	-0.3%	0.2%	-2.6%
8/8/2022	1,583,879	33,121,762	4.8%	885	871.27	-1.6%	927.96	4.85%	4155.93	4140.06	-0.4%	0.2%	-1.8%
8/5/2022	3,300,000	37,724,301	8.7%	908.01	864.51	-4.8%	900.09	-0.87%	4115.87	4145.19	0.7%	0.2%	-5.0%
4/28/2022	5,230,000	41,649,512	12.6%	899.98	877.51	-2.5%	873.28	-2.97%	4222.58	4287.5	1.5%	3.3%	-5.8%
4/27/2022	345,601	25,652,131	1.3%	898.58	881.51	-1.9%	952.62	6.01%	4186.52	4183.96	-0.1%	0.2%	-2.1%
4/26/2022	4,069,399	45,377,887	9.0%	995.43	876.42	-12.0%	909.25	-8.66%	4278.14	4175.2	-2.4%	-4.7%	-7.2%
12/28/2021	934,090	20,107,971	4.6%	1109.49	1088.47	-1.9%	1149.59	3.61%	4795.49	4786.35	-0.2%	0.2%	-2.1%
12/22/2021	340,564	31,211,359	1.1%	965.66	1008.87	4.5%	1070.34	10.84%	4650.36	4696.56	1.0%	0.2%	4.3%
12/21/2021	934,091	23,839,311	3.9%	916.87	938.53	2.4%	1086.19	18.47%	4594.96	4649.23	1.2%	0.2%	2.2%
12/16/2021	934,091	27,590,480	3.4%	994.5	926.92	-6.8%	1067	7.29%	4719.13	4668.67	-1.1%	0.2%	-7.0%
12/13/2021	934,091	26,198,500	3.6%	1001.09	966.41	-3.5%	899.94	-10.10%	4710.3	4668.97	-0.9%	0.2%	-3.7%
12/9/2021	934,091	19,812,830	4.7%	1060.64	1003.8	-5.4%	926.92	-12.61%	4691	4667.45	-0.5%	0.2%	-5.6%
12/2/2021	934,091	24,371,619	3.8%	1099.06	1084.6	-1.3%	1003.8	-8.67%	4504.73	4577.1	1.6%	3.5%	-4.8%
11/23/2021	934,091	36,171,699	2.6%	1167.51	1109.03	-5.0%	1095	-6.21%	4678.48	4690.7	0.3%	0.2%	-5.2%
11/16/2021	934,091	26,542,359	3.5%	1003.31	1054.73	5.1%	1109.03	10.54%	4679.42	4700.9	0.5%	0.2%	4.9%
11/15/2021	934,091	34,775,648	2.7%	1017.63	1013.39	-0.4%	1156.87	13.68%	4689.3	4682.8	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.6%
11/12/2021	1,200,000	25,573,150	4.7%	1047.5	1033.42	-1.3%	1137.06	8.55%	4655.24	4682.85	0.6%	0.2%	-1.5%
11/11/2021	639,737	22,396,570	2.9%	1102.77	1063.51	-3.6%	1096.38	-0.58%	4659.39	4649.27	-0.2%	0.2%	-3.8%
11/10/2021	500,000	42,802,719	1.2%	1010.41	1067.95	5.7%	1089.01	7.78%	4670.26	4646.71	-0.5%	0.2%	5.5%
11/9/2021	3,088,047	59,105,840	5.2%	1173.6	1023.5	-12.8%	1054.73	-10.13%	4707.25	4685.25	-0.5%	0.2%	-13.0%
11/8/2021	934,091	33,445,719	2.8%	1149.785	1162.94	1.1%	1013.39	-11.86%	4701.48	4701.7	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%

View attachment 845564

So, historically Elon's sales are associated with an expected average TSLA decline of about 2.3% give or take 2 or 3 percentage points. We don't even have high confidence that the true average effect is less than zero, because 0 is on the edge of the margin of error. TSLA actually gained on 5 of the 20 days in which Elon has sold.

It does look likely that when Elon sells more than ~5% of the total TSLA trading volume in a day, there does tend to be TSLA underperformance of about 7%, but the effect appears transitory because in all cases, TSLA reached the same price level again at some point within the subsequent week or two. As a matter of fact, when looking at all of Elon's sales, the potential downward bias appears to be transitory. The data shows no evidence of consistent residual impact on the TSLA price a week after the sale, and on average TSLA has gone 0.9% higher after 5 trading days have elapsed.

The 12% drop on April 26th when Elon dumped 4 million shares onto the market should be looked at in context of the sales he made in the following two days.

Spoiler: Context

• Elon had a bigger share of TSLA trading volume on Apr 28th than on the 26th, but TSLA only fell by 2.5%
• TSLA recovered to the original price range within a few days of the Elon stock dump
• TSLA and S&P 500 were both in steep multi-month downtrends
  • This was just two months after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, oil & gas prices were sky high, inflation and rate increase concerns were high, and there was a lot of general anxiety about the economy

Date	Elon Sale Amount	Total TSLA Volume	Elon % of TSLA Volume	TSLA Open	TSLA Close	TSLA % Change	TSLA Close 5 trading days later	TSLA % Change 5 trading days later	S&P 500 Open	S&P 500 Close	S&P 500 % Change
4/28/2022	5,230,000	41,649,512	12.6%	899.98	877.51	-2.5%	873.28	-2.97%	4222.58	4287.5	1.5%
4/27/2022	345,601	25,652,131	1.3%	898.58	881.51	-1.9%	952.62	6.01%	4186.52	4183.96	-0.1%
4/26/2022	4,069,399	45,377,887	9.0%	995.43	876.42	-12.0%	909.25	-8.66%	4278.14	4175.2	-2.4%

On the 28th, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and TSLA fell by only 2.5% this time. 20% of the time, TSLA falls on days the S&P is up around 1.5%, so a 2.5% loss isn't especially unusual for a single data point. On days where the S&P 500 falls between 2% and 3%, TSLA falls on average 6.2% with a standard deviation of 4.8%. Falling 12% is a (12-6.2)/4.8 = 1.2-sigma event, which is nothing crazy.

All the actual market data contradicts the idea that Elon selling TSLA has a meaningful impact on the stock price at all, and especially not for longer than a few days afterward. It looks like there is probably about a 2% effect which disappears quickly. Not a big deal.

Conclusions

1. TSLA moves around seemingly randomly when the S&P 500 moves less than 1.5%
   • Middle 90% of the distribution for the S&P 500
2. TSLA tends to amplify market gains or losses when the S&P 500 moves more than 1.5%
   • < 5th percentile or > 95th percentile days for the S&P 500
3. Elon occasionally seems to influence the TSLA price for a couple of days before it reverts back to normal range
4. TSLA has gone on a few bull runs in its history that can't be explained by just by reactions to the macros, and these account for the majority of TSLA's stock price appreciation since IPO
   • The 2013-2014 "Oh wow the Model S is a good car" rally
   • The 2019-2020 "Production Hell is Over/Cash Flow Positive Now/S&P 500 Inclusion/Stock Split" rally
   • The 2021 "Shanghai is Dominating/Tesla Makes a Lot of Profit Now" rally

Excellent.

I think it's fair to separate level of "Elon-influence" between days he's actively sold TSLA shares - which he does clandestinely BTW - vs. days he Tweeted or been in the news, which only potentially have a passive influence on the SP.

In the former, he's literally selling a significant number of shares. Of course this will influence the SP down as it feeds selling!! In the latter, Elon as 'influencer', the potential impact on the SP is determined by how much how many investors care about what Elon says or does. I'd suggest this is much harder to quantify, and much more easily guessed at, like when people say "it's 100% for sure that Elon's tweet about ____ is bringing down the SP!!". This is just.... false. It's certainly not 100% sure, and which direction and by how much is still a guess. There's no way to know for sure.

Thanks for the informed perspective, @Gigapress .

 

[MC3OZ]

Rear wheeled drive MY from Berlin; Is this the likely scenario?

• Tesla have got themselves a decent number of LFP Blade batteries from BYD
  • These have significantly poorer performance - hence slower 0-60
    • Therefore no intended future performance unlock
• Tesla have insufficient batteries in Europe
  • Hence smaller battery model
  • Hence using what they can get hold of
• Tesla will likely phase out this model when more batteries are available
• M3 SR would be better suited to this battery as it is more efficient and would be a better low end vehicle
• These batteries will be good for Robotaxis and storage so Tesla will want to find uses to grow the supply before switching over

Rob thinks these are probably cars with LFP batteries exported from Shanghai.

Thanks makes some sense as Berlin isn't yet at the required run rate.

If Berlin can be making 5K Model Ys per week by the end of the year, can make in Berlin with LFP Blade batteries should be possible and due to lower import duties might have better margins than LFP imported from Shanghai.

As an Australian data point, my wife's Model Y is coming early, and some friends at her work got an early delivery on a Model 3 Performance.
Shanghai seems to be really cranking out the cars.

 

[Cult Member]

On my way to San Diego on I8, passed a fossil fuel semi hauling a Nikola hydrogen fuel cell semi (printed text on it) on a flatbed trailer.

"Competition is coming "

I hope you saved it on video. It is time for a new commercial from Nikola.
Just give them a honk next time and offer them the recording for a fortune.