Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WattsHappening]

I know it's still early, but TSLA outperforming macros pretty significantly on the first trading day after Labor Day. Volume of 30M shares traded at 12:07 EDT is better than we've been seeing (but still not as high as I would like).

I'm glad Labor Day is past us. Really looking forward to Q3 and Q4 numbers. I just hope the macros don't tank on us. That's the only thing that can derail the SP recovery.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I know it's still early, but TSLA outperforming macros pretty significantly on the first trading day after Labor Day. Volume of 30M shares traded at 12:07 EDT is better than we've been seeing (but still not as high as I would like).

Pre-split we would see that amount of volume by 10:30 on a good day.

 

[growler23]

Would you believe a pyramid shaped power wall? Because I just talked to some insiders, and they confirmed it. Its still very secret, so keep it quiet please.

(humor post feel free to ignore)

No, definitely a sphere, but the original rumor left out important details.
First, "Powerball" already has multi-million dollar name recognition, no need for advertising : matches Tesla perfectly.
Second, Tesla, having quietly solved room-temperature superconductors, will sell a "ball raiser" (official name still under wraps) to magnetically raise your Powerballs to any desired level at the touch of the Tesla app, allowing mowing (or vacuuming) underneath at a moment's notice.
Third, for a monthly subscription, Tesla will allow the ball raiser to automatically spin the balls at a constant rate, for mind blowing visual effects.

 

[WattsHappening]

Pre-split we would see that amount of volume by 10:30 on a good day.

Yep, good point.

But it's clear average volume has dropped since the split. The past week, daily volume has been around 50M. We should easily surpass that today. I am focused on volume and relative performance to QQQ this week.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

One data point . . .

I just put in an order for a MY LR last week via a loan from Tesla. Tesla sent out my loan application to (I recall) 5 Canadian banks and offered me the best quoted rate. My offer was for 5.9%.

Surely Tesla can profit more from that v.s. whatever interest rate they are receiving on their billions.
And once Tesla gets accredited, they can do fractional reserve banking to increase profit.

That's an amazingly high interest rate.

Our employer Credit Union is offering 1.90% on car loans, new or used, with no EV discounted rate (although they really should considering my employer dumps massive amounts of GHG's on any given day).

Regardless, with literally billions in cash sitting around, surely Tesla should open a Tesla Bank for consumer lending to help move the metal. The risk to Tesla should be lower as well since the cars are so much easier to find, shut down, and repossess should the borrower default

Seems like a no-brainer to me, but what do I know.

 

[Usain]

Stop fear mongering. You put it as if Cruise is reporting massive accidents. And as if the media/authorities are examining Cruise for it.

Neither is true.

And even if it were true, data is king and Tesla will be able to report stellar data to show the viability of FSD in due time. Whatever some anonymous redditor writes will have no impact. Period.

I only said I was a little concerned. And I certainly wasn't fear mongering.

Rather than cheer when Cruise has an accident we should reflect on how it affects public perception of autonomy in general.

 

[Nocturnal]

I only said I was a little concerned. And I certainly wasn't fear mongering.

Rather than cheer when Cruise has an accident we should reflect on how it affects public perception of autonomy in general.

It's tricky. As fans/investors of the company it feels really good to bag on the competition for things like EV battery fires or ADAS crashes but it's probably counterproductive in the long run.

 

[Usain]

Buying Rivian might not be a bad bet for Apple if they really want to enter the EV scene.

Very true. And it makes me wonder how much of Rivian's market cap is due to its attractiveness as a takeover target.

 

[betstarship]

Q - did development of the iPhone or Model S start first back in the 2004-2007 time range?

Were they using different technologies or worked off the same patent for touch enabled functionality from a screen rather than buttons?

Curious for those that might know, can't find it anywhere online right now.

 

[Snerruc]

Your arguments need not be faulty or refuted in order to oppose your conclusion. Presenting the bill to the oil companies for their share of the cost of protecting their interests would do just fine.

And pigs also fly.

The US fleet protects a lot more than oil. It protects EVERYTHING that moves by ocean, including Tesla cars in transit to buyers.

 

[gtrplyr1]

IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well

 

[thesmokingman]

IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well

It'd be a helluva different story if you had bought in at the IPO.

 

[Paracelsus]

Forward Observing

Bottom Line up front. Deliberate Incompetence ~ Red tape creators.

My third solar panel array was installed/permit inspection 30Jun2022. Privatized utility company finally installed net-meter on 11Aug2022.

Background ~ Utility (electric and gas) provider is notified by the customer having solar panels installed and the solar panel installer with schematics. Both permit approval and utility provider must review and approve the build taking time. This private utility stars their process after the panels are installed and certified by the permitting authority. This privatized utility only, according to their email, order the net-meter after they have been notified the new install has been certified. Only after they have your net-meter will they make their final review and schedule an install.

Install #1 2013 ~ Privatized 7 to 10 work days

Install #2 2019 ~ Public 48 hrs. FYI ~ start the approval process as soon as contract is signed by customer months before actual build.

Install #3 2022 ~ same Privatized as #1. FYI ~ start the process only, and only once every thing is installed and certified by permit authority.

Now, to be fair and honest to our privatized utility provider ~ I bumped my home electrical supply up from generic 200 to 320 system October 2021. Thus cutting our fossil fuel consumption, after replacing thirty year old gas furnace system. Did I mention our private utility provider never upgraded our meter. In fact, the net-meter installer was caught by surprise ~ he just happened to have a spare 320 system net-meter. That told me they really had not ordered me specifically a net-meter.

Question ~ my system has been producing electricity since 30Jun2022, but the hose was pinched since then with no where to go. First, I get no credit for the production during the blockage. Second, is there any damage to my system waiting to send to the grid?

FYI ~ yes, I filed a complaint with the state. I was told the did nothing wrong, did not violate any rules or break any laws.

The advantage to delaying our install of the net-meter is a passive-aggressive tactic making the private utility provider in my case, money. I must keep paying for electricity used; not just working days, but those pesky weekends too.

Deliberate Incompetent ~ my private utility provider.

Okay, you know me ~ I smarted off with can I change utility providers? The answer was yes! But first, I had to obtain permission from the private utilit, before the receiving utility can approve the transfer. And, by the way it is cost prohibitive. I am . . . ‘d

Cheers

Thanks for helping to raise awareness of this potential 'delay by design' @DragonWatch . We helped my brother purchase and install a large ground-mount solar system in the midwest last summer, and faced the same frustrating issues. The system was completed in mid-June, and in a rather similar situation I was informed that no inspectors were readily available from the local utility to approve the installation until mid-July. The system was large enough that it would immediately reverse the meter and start banking credits for winter months. And it was Warren Buffett's coal trains and coal plants that were providing power in the meantime. So a trifecta of frustration - no utility credits and no clean solar while Warren B kept the coal trains running.
Another 'coincidence' we might have shared with you - it is very likely that you get some of your power from PacifiCorp where you live - and perhaps even more likely in the spring and summer months when you implemented your project too, because that's when federal hydro generation capacity on the Snake and Columbia River Basins is reduced for salmon policies that may have done more harm than good to the adult salmon returns in my opinion. And I will give you three guesses who owns PacifiCorp. Yep. That's right. Same guy. Its more than just the local PUD's that benefit when these solar project activations are delayed. In our case, and most likely in your case, the benefits can potentially go all the way to Wall Street if you connect the dots. Which is why we did not see any of the real thoughtful language of the original Green New Deal in any subsequent form of it discussed over the last 2 years, or in any of the language of the most recently passed legislation IMO. And there were approximately 500,000 residential solar projects in 2021. Let's be conservative and say the average system generated 5 kW for an 8 hours day, and that the average 'delay for approval' was only 2 weeks. That would penalize each customer about 560 kWh, or about 280,000,000 kWh/year of clean new solar across the country. That would offset about 114,000 tons of coal or 326,000 tons of CO2 with fully operable solar systems forced to sit idle. Hmmm. Almost 1,000 rail cars full of coal. Which is almost 9 entire trainloads. Is a couple weeks or more a big deal? This is broken on so many levels in my opinion..............and often from issues that would be so easy to fix if greed didn't get in the way. What a world we might live in if Greed could be the first deadly sin. A nation-wide Tesla VPP can't come fast enough.

 

[thx1139]

The US fleet protects a lot more than oil. It protects EVERYTHING that moves by ocean, including Tesla cars in transit to buyers.

Lets have all of them pay for protection. There are 810 oil tankers on oceans as of April 2020, so safe to assume a great deal more oil shipments getting protected compared to cars, including Tesla's.

 

[EVMeister]

IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well

Nothing against Rivian as a side investment. But the real smart money is surely invested in Tesla. They still have vastly more growth potential than Rivian IMHO.

 

[unk45]

As faultlessly true as that is in 2022 and in prior years, looking forward, I would suggest that argument falls flat on its face, or condemns Tesla to be relegated to the rarefied atmosphere of the highly creditworthies.

Probably not anytime soon. Highly creditworthy people vary widely in income and wealth. A >760 rating depends on living within earnings, plus having a few credit cards/installment loans and a mortgage all of them modestly used and paid impeccably, but none opened recently.
Tesla buyers and lessees probably will be like that for quite some time to come.

There are some claimed billionaires with lousy credit ratings. All it takes is using lots of your credit and paying late.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well

Sorry but I can't help but laugh at "Smart money buying Rivian" lol.

Rivian's valuation today has a ton of "potential" already priced into it and Rivian's management has done absolutely zero to install faith that they'll even remotely hit the numbers needed to justify it. Smart money is buying TSLA today, risky money is buying Rivian and hoping for some sort of miracle.

Here's a heads up..........it won't. Compare the numbers between Rivian and Tesla at the same stage of their product launches. They're nothing alike. Rivian will never be anything like Tesla. Completely different level of execution and management.

 

[elasalle]

IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well

Doesn't smart money make decisions based on financial statements ?
If only based on growth and projections, they surely would have been in TSLA by now.

retail investors got sold a story and got butt hurt buying at IPO .... pre-IPO, banks etc must have made out like bandits ..

 

[thesmokingman]

retail investors got sold a story and got raped buying at IPO ....

Fixed that for you.

Also both the startups are going to dilute share price moving forward as they are deep in cash burn and will have to issue more and more. Take a look at Lucid. Print more shares bro. Rivian will most likely follow suit at the rate of cash burn they are going at.

 

[Knightshade]

Not sure why all the drama about an "Apple Car". Apple doesn't even manufacture their phones, they just have Foxconn slap an Apple label on their products. They don't have the manufacturing or engineering experience to consider something as complex as auto manufacturing-at this time anyway.

You know Foxconn owns an EV car factory in the US, right?

First Foxconn made iPhones. But can it make electric vehicles?

The Apple iPhone manufacturer has acquired a former GM plant in Ohio with plans to make EVs on a contract basis.

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