Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

1st Quarter should have been epic after Q4 numbers. 2nd Quarter should have been epic after Q1 numbers. I'm hoping, but definitely no longer saying it "should" be epic....

Not sure how you can even relate anything about Q2 to Q1. Q1 had two different breakout moments. Q4 P/D numbers to start off Q1 and then Q1’s earnings caused another breakout. Each time the macros crashed to limit the breakout and even then, it took Elon buying Twitter and unloading shares for the breakout to finally collapse in April.

And as for Q2, there was absolutely zero chance of any sort of breakout with the Shanghai Covid lockdowns going on. Everyone and their mom knew how Q2 was going to be portrayed, both in terms of deliveries and earnings…..peak growth and earnings

So most of those dynamics are in the past. No more downside from Twitter, only upside. And the macro markets are already down big so the potential for another massive drop is much smaller.

Not saying TSLA will go on an epic run from Q3 numbers but there’s definitely a good chance at a breakout and outperformance of the macros with a further “epic” rally waiting in the wings (Q4)

 

[WattsHappening]

Not sure how you can even relate anything about Q2 to Q1. Q1 had two different breakout moments. Q4 P/D numbers to start off Q1 and then Q1’s earnings caused another breakout. Each time the macros crashed to limit the breakout and even then, it took Elon buying Twitter and unloading shares for the breakout to finally collapse in April.

And as for Q2, there was absolutely zero chance of any sort of breakout with the Shanghai Covid lockdowns going on. Everyone and their mom knew how Q2 was going to be portrayed, both in terms of deliveries and earnings…..peak growth and earnings

So most of those dynamics are in the past. No more downside from Twitter, only upside. And the macro markets are already down big so the potential for another massive drop is much smaller.

Not saying TSLA will go on an epic run from Q3 numbers but there’s definitely a good chance at a breakout and outperformance of the macros with a further “epic” rally waiting in the wings (Q4)

Who are you and what did you do with the real @StarFoxisDown!?

This is, dare I say it, optimistic.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Who are you and what did you do with the real @StarFoxisDown!?

This is, dare I say it, optimistic.

I’ve always been optimistic medium term - as in once we get through Q3/Q4. The macros could be at their June lows and I wouldn’t be surprised if TSLA is back to its ATH regardless.

It was short term that I am much less optimistic on. Just gotta get to Oct 1st

 

[PeterJA]

And the macro markets are already down big so the potential for another massive drop is much smaller....

Some so-called experts are predicting further market crash, due to recession, China real estate collapse, blah blah.

You'd think more investors would start understanding that Tesla is the best safe-haven in a recession, due to unstoppable demand, unstoppable production growth, and proven agility under stress.

You'd think...

 

[WattsHappening]

@The Accountant, you can put Matt Smith and Good Soil down for $1.68 for Q3.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569783143556870145

 

[Discoducky]

Did a Seattle drive with @Gigapress today on 10.69.2 and the TL;DR is that it is:

• Achieved success at some of Seattle most difficult traffic and road segments/intersections
• Step change improvement for UPLs
• Very careful around VRUs and did very well
• Still jerky steering wheel movements at slow speeds
• Some hesitations and needed throttle and steering overrides at complex turns when traffic present
• Did NOT handle my 4 roundy's well, had to takeover 6 out of 6 times (I'm sad, but these are hard)
• Lane changes/choosing is unpredictable, seems 50/50 it will do the right thing
• DID handle my previously unsafe high speed UPL which it has never done before (due to new creep boundary)

Spoiler: Longer version

Picked up @Gigapress and headed for Volunteer Park. Roads that are super steep, rough, tight and not marked well. FSD handled these well with only one missed occluded stop sign (wanted to try this again, but we didn't, but it missed another occluded stop sign so this is an issue). Did some other steep/tight accent/decent lefts, rights and straights, which it handled somewhat ok, but some jerky steering wheel movements are quite unnerving when traffic is coming head-on (grr, Kalman filters at slow speeds is the root cause of this due to high jerk rate being allowed for any inputs to path planner being passed on to controls).

Not able to handle Seattle's hardest turn here, but no big deal as this turn is ridiculous and from my time on Google Maps, it is the most missed turn in Seattle.

Did a whole bunch of UPLs and it handled all of them, but was too hesitant and had to intervene about 30% of the time on average (about 5% of the time it was an unsafe hesitation). I believe the new network(s) that are controlling this will continue to get better (does NOT feel like they are anywhere close to a local maxima in performance).

Several times after a left or right, FSD was not able to get into the correct lane (one lane change left or right) when it needed to immediately (it is not either using any sparse map 'look ahead' road segmentation data or the network is sometimes not present or is just too sparse and is somehow lacking for that particular segment).

My two lane roundy's were not handled well and I had to intervene each time (a few unsafe moments) where it was very hesitant, it chose the wrong lane, changed lanes in the turn or simply was going to hit the target car. I had such high hopes, but I'll test this more tomorrow, hoping for some better results.

In conclusion: I'll be driving a bunch more tomorrow and hope to achieve more statistical data on the same turns

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[The Accountant]

Updated with Matt Smith's estimate . . . h/t to @sroh.

 

[wtlloyd]

Did a Seattle drive with @Gigapress today on 10.69.2 and the TL;DR is that it is:

• Achieved success at some of Seattle most difficult traffic and road segments/intersections
• Step change improvement for UPLs
• Very careful around VRUs and did very well
• Still jerky steering wheel movements at slow speeds
• Some hesitations and needed throttle and steering overrides at complex turns when traffic present
• Did NOT handle my 4 roundy's well, had to takeover 6 out of 6 times (I'm sad, but these are hard)
• Lane changes/choosing is unpredictable, seems 50/50 it will do the right thing
• DID handle my previously unsafe high speed UPL which it has never done before (due to new creep boundary)

Spoiler: Longer version

Picked up @Gigapress and headed for Volunteer Park. Roads that are super steep, rough, tight and not marked well. FSD handled these well with only one missed occluded stop sign (wanted to try this again, but we didn't, but it missed another occluded stop sign so this is an issue). Did some other steep/tight accent/decent lefts, rights and straights, which it handled somewhat ok, but some jerky steering wheel movements are quite unnerving when traffic is coming head-on (grr, Kalman filters at slow speeds is the root cause of this due to high jerk rate being allowed for any inputs to path planner being passed on to controls).

Not able to handle Seattle's hardest turn here, but no big deal as this turn is ridiculous and from my time on Google Maps, it is the most missed turn in Seattle.

Did a whole bunch of UPLs and it handled all of them, but was too hesitant and had to intervene about 30% of the time on average (about 5% of the time it was an unsafe hesitation). I believe the new network(s) that are controlling this will continue to get better (does NOT feel like they are anywhere close to a local maxima in performance).

Several times after a left or right, FSD was not able to get into the correct lane (one lane change left or right) when it needed to immediately (it is not either using any sparse map 'look ahead' road segmentation data or the network is sometimes not present or is just too sparse and is somehow lacking for that particular segment).

My two lane roundy's were not handled well and I had to intervene each time (a few unsafe moments) where it was very hesitant, it chose the wrong lane, changed lanes in the turn or simply was going to hit the target car. I had such high hopes, but I'll test this more tomorrow, hoping for some better results.

In conclusion: I'll be driving a bunch more tomorrow and hope to achieve more statistical data on the same turns

Gives me PTSD just to see that on the map.Glad to know I'm not the only one who goes "WTF!" on that switchback. Confusing even if you know where you're going.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I still think Tesla’s “Generation 3” of vehicle production starts with the Cybertruck. The Robotaxi will inherit from that lineage. This is why Musk calls it his Magnum Opus.

Sides are folded stainless just like the Cybertruck.

Do the windows even need to roll down in a taxi? At that point each door only had a single button control to open the door. No motor for opening the window. Heck even the door release button could be removed, it could just pop the doors when it stops.

Get rid of all the parts.

There are no windows.

 

[wtlloyd]

There are no windows.

Fixed glass, no operator motor, void can be filled or honeycomb core for strength.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Fixed glass, no operator motor, void can be filled or honeycomb core for strength.

No glass. Just bent metal exoskeleton. Simple.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How does this mesh with Tesla's plan to sell 20 million vehicles/year by 2030?

Plans change. I don't think anyone could've predicted we'd be selling the "cheaper" models for $60k in 2023.

With any luck they'll never get to 20M. I'd MUCH rather see the next phase of ramping go to Energy. Simultaneously across 4 continents would be nice.

Model 3/Y is going to absorb the entire Accord/Camry/Rav4/Outback market. That's sufficient, regardless of where total production ends up. The goal is transitioning the entire sector, not making every car. Let everybody else make $0-3k selling EV Civics and Corollas.

 

[Thekiwi]

How does this mesh with Tesla's plan to sell 20 million vehicles/year by 2030?

Basically essential for cheaper/smaller Tesla passenger vehicles to arrive if Tesla intends to hit that target. Makes no sense whatsoever to announce a cheaper Tesla before they are ready to enter production however. It would be classic example of the Osbourne effect (Eg killing a significant amount of demand for current products before the new product is ready to ship).

 

[ZeApelido]

Did a Seattle drive with @Gigapress today on 10.69.2 and the TL;DR is that it is:

• Achieved success at some of Seattle most difficult traffic and road segments/intersections
• Step change improvement for UPLs
• Very careful around VRUs and did very well
• Still jerky steering wheel movements at slow speeds
• Some hesitations and needed throttle and steering overrides at complex turns when traffic present
• Did NOT handle my 4 roundy's well, had to takeover 6 out of 6 times (I'm sad, but these are hard)
• Lane changes/choosing is unpredictable, seems 50/50 it will do the right thing
• DID handle my previously unsafe high speed UPL which it has never done before (due to new creep boundary)

Spoiler: Longer version

Picked up @Gigapress and headed for Volunteer Park. Roads that are super steep, rough, tight and not marked well. FSD handled these well with only one missed occluded stop sign (wanted to try this again, but we didn't, but it missed another occluded stop sign so this is an issue). Did some other steep/tight accent/decent lefts, rights and straights, which it handled somewhat ok, but some jerky steering wheel movements are quite unnerving when traffic is coming head-on (grr, Kalman filters at slow speeds is the root cause of this due to high jerk rate being allowed for any inputs to path planner being passed on to controls).

Not able to handle Seattle's hardest turn here, but no big deal as this turn is ridiculous and from my time on Google Maps, it is the most missed turn in Seattle.

Did a whole bunch of UPLs and it handled all of them, but was too hesitant and had to intervene about 30% of the time on average (about 5% of the time it was an unsafe hesitation). I believe the new network(s) that are controlling this will continue to get better (does NOT feel like they are anywhere close to a local maxima in performance).

Several times after a left or right, FSD was not able to get into the correct lane (one lane change left or right) when it needed to immediately (it is not either using any sparse map 'look ahead' road segmentation data or the network is sometimes not present or is just too sparse and is somehow lacking for that particular segment).

My two lane roundy's were not handled well and I had to intervene each time (a few unsafe moments) where it was very hesitant, it chose the wrong lane, changed lanes in the turn or simply was going to hit the target car. I had such high hopes, but I'll test this more tomorrow, hoping for some better results.

In conclusion: I'll be driving a bunch more tomorrow and hope to achieve more statistical data on the same turns

Two engineers in the car? Must have been scintillating conversation.

 

[ZeApelido]

Sounds so wrong on multiple levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569598736162066435

 

[2daMoon]

Sounds so wrong on multiple levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569598736162066435

Perhaps Sholtz has some Hindenburg engineer ancestry?

 

[Fred42]

Sounds so wrong on multiple levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569598736162066435

Confusion: that was Sergeant Shultz.

 

[2daMoon]

Confusion: that was Sergeant Shultz.

He knows nothing...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Some so-called experts are predicting further market crash, due to recession, China real estate collapse, blah blah.

You'd think more investors would start understanding that Tesla is the best safe-haven in a recession, due to unstoppable demand, unstoppable production growth, and proven agility under stress.

You'd think...

Yeah I’ve heard and listened to those so called experts .

Pretty much comes down to the only way the market goes down materially lower than the June lows if if we’re in another Great Financial Crisis situation. I love seeing the Twitter accounts post the overlay of the charts of the S&P and how it correlates to 2022. They love to say “Look at how similar they are and what happened next!!!!……and conviently leave out that the second massive leg down in that chart is the Lehman brothers collapse which had the entire financial system on the brink of collapse.

Sure ok