I’ve never been a dealer or an F&I person.
All of the items you state depend on the vehicle having a certain value of x at a certain time after the sale.
Since I’m not a subject matter expert, my “gut” tells me that there is a musical chairs scenario about to happen and someone, somewhere is underwriting a risk that will not have any value 36 months after Dec 2023.
You're correct. There are always such cases.
BMW allegedly lost >$14000 per lease return on the first generation 7 series, the E23. In 2001 they introduced the iDrive which was a disaster.
Then Nissan allegedly made an offer 'no money, no credit, no problem' offer that had predictable losses.
Later when GM introduced the Buick Reatta there were almost no buyers so nearly all of them were leased with repurchase agreements to Alamo car rental.
There are large numbers of such cases, mostly not very much publicized outside auto industry.
The same thing happens with aircraft, recently a B747 with less than 100 hours total time was scrapped, and a number of Airbus A380 have been scrapped.
Clearly, when manufacturers miss the mark the results are predictable.
Generically ICE is not quite analogous. Probably that is more like, say, the Ford Model A or the Douglas DC 3. Those were huge successes, even transformative perhaps, but when they were superseded they just kept operating and kept gradually reducing in numbers, with value gradually diminishing too. The ICE fleet si so huge and there is such a 'slow' rate of acceptance when compared with total global market size that I cannot agree that the ICE market will collapse.
That said, there will be am increasing number of places such as Norway and California that will have fewer ICE on the roads than BEV within the next decade. There will be other that will not.
Prediction of total collapse for ICE is analogous with cellular telephone replacement of land lines or telephone replacing telegraph and telex. Perhaps we might think of oil replacing coal. Nearly ever major upheaval is dramatic in terms for market growth, but much slower in mass displacement of older technology. Even the industrial revolution took many decades forms adoption of railroads and sewing machines, although in retrospect we tend to minimize the actual time used for mass adoption.
I am confident that we all know and understand the direction needed for mass adoption of BEV. The fundamental question is whether this will be like Krakatoa or huge asteroid arrival that triggered mass extinction events.
World infrastructure is somewhat resistant to rapid change. A question is how to define 'rapid'.
