Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

And it tells me that I don’t need to waist time reading the article!

 

[Artful Dodger]

We picked up my wife's Made In Texas Model Y Thursday and the VIN ends with 0116xx.

Congrats! Can you tell whether it has a 4680 structural pack, or a 2170 non-structural pack?

Cheers!

 

[ThisStockGood]

Congrats! Can you tell whether it has a 4680 structural pack, or a 2170 non-structural pack?

Cheers!

yes, and make it quick

 

[Artful Dodger]

yes, and make it quick

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There are obvious external differences between the two versions. One structure has a continuous floor; the other does not. The 3/Y 2170 bty packs made in Sparks also have product ID stickers including version numbers visible inside the RF wheel well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

No clear Tesla Shanghai second factory \ Giga shanghai\4K # 467 | WuWa (50 min ago)

 

[Nolimits]

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Makes sense as they continue to sell lower priced models exponentially and fsd take rate lower. In the past, it was more model s and x models that were sold which targets wealthier early adopters. They likely had the capital to splurge another 4K-6k for fsd at that time. They were also the ones who probably bought their second or third model teslas - 3 and Ys and bought the fsds too. Now, it’s to the mass public - and we just want it for functionality, safety and cost efficiency. But not sure if they can cough up 10k+ for fsd toy function.

 

[ZachF]

Some light Sunday watching, Plaid vs Bugatti Chiron:

 

[unk45]

Makes sense as they continue to sell lower priced models exponentially and fsd take rate lower. In the past, it was more model s and x models that were sold which targets wealthier early adopters. They likely had the capital to splurge another 4K-6k for fsd at that time. They were also the ones who probably bought their second or third model teslas - 3 and Ys and bought the fsds too. Now, it’s to the mass public - and we just want it for functionality, safety and cost efficiency. But not sure if they can cough up 10k+ for fsd toy function.

I’ve done it three times, over the last seven years. Subjectively I do see improvements. Fir me and some others I do think we’re funding development so I don’t expect real FSD anytime soon. I have completely quit using autopilot in urban areas due to incessant false warnings. Even on limited access highways I no longer use it. Whatever I do spontaneous false warning happen so I typically end out with 80’s safety scores if I use autopilot and high 90’s when I drive myself. Probably I have some calibration errors but I don’t have the patience to seek service. That is my fault, not Tesla’s.

For certain there are many who would blame Tesla. Not me! I do know when it is my own disinclination to seek service. OTOH, if real FSD we’re to arrive my motivation would almost instantly increase.

In the meantime I’m funding development.

 

[Krugerrand]

My first time driving a Tesla showed me why people are so obsessed with Elon Musk's electric cars

The Tesla Model Y is quick, packed with fun tech, and simple to charge. But not everyone will love its big touchscreen and lack of regular buttons.

www.businessinsider.com

How can a journalist covering EVs have never driven a Tesla in 10+ YEARS?? Are these the monkeys we are up against?

No, it’s the ringmasters controlling these monkeys that we’re up against.

 

[Singuy]

Makes sense as they continue to sell lower priced models exponentially and fsd take rate lower. In the past, it was more model s and x models that were sold which targets wealthier early adopters. They likely had the capital to splurge another 4K-6k for fsd at that time. They were also the ones who probably bought their second or third model teslas - 3 and Ys and bought the fsds too. Now, it’s to the mass public - and we just want it for functionality, safety and cost efficiency. But not sure if they can cough up 10k+ for fsd toy function.

The North America take rate seems to be similar today vs the 2017 S/X days despite the price being almost 3x what it used to be. This is actually surprising. We actually see huge jump in take rate after the huge model 3 ramp. Also the large spike in 2019 was due to FSD being on sale prior to every end of the quarter push, switch to HW3 so 2.5 people got real hardware for their cash, and post Autonomus day demonstration.

Global take rate have gone lower due to China's near zero take rate diluting the numbers down. Also I can't imagine EU take rate being high when FSD beta is no where to be found and tye regulators nuked AP pretty badly with nonsensical laws.

 

[willow_hiller]

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I've said this before, but I wish Troy would make it clearer that this FSD take-rate comes from his voluntary order-tracker spreadsheet and is only for new orders. He has no way of quantifying the number of Tesla owners that add FSD after they receive their order. And that number could be substantial.

 

[Singuy]

I've said this before, but I wish Troy would make it clearer that this FSD take-rate comes from his voluntary order-tracker spreadsheet and is only for new orders. He has no way of quantifying the number of Tesla owners that add FSD after they receive their order. And that number could be substantial.

Correct, so take it as a min take rate.

However new order take rate today most likely account foe 95%+ of the full purchase take rate as most people would like to roll a 10k+ purchase into the loan. Those who didn't will most likely subscribe later. Very few drop 10-15k cash afterwards unless there's a new hardware upgrade that comes with the purchase.

 

[willow_hiller]

Correct, so take it as a min take rate.

However new order take rate today most likely account foe 95%+ of the full purchase take rate as most people would like to roll a 10k+ purchase into the loan. Those who didn't will most likely subscribe later. Very few drop 10-15k cash afterwards unless there's a new hardware upgrade that comes with the purchase.

There are some locations where much more than 95% of people that wanted FSD would add it after purchase; mainly for tax reasons. I know in Canada, cars over $75,000 USD ($100,000 CAD) have to pay an extra "luxury" tax of 10% of the total purchase and 20% of the amount over the limit, and I've heard of Canadians adding FSD after purchase to avoid it.

Likewise, right near me in Virginia, they pay an annual property tax on the value of their car. In Fairfax county (probably highest concentration of Tesla's in my area), it's over 4.5%. If you add FSD to the purchase price, that's an extra $675 you have you pay in property tax every year.

Also I wouldn't discount the number of people that didn't think FSD was worth it when they bought their cars, but think it's worth it now with more features. One of the most common refrains I hear in Reddit comments is "I'm happy to wait until FSD actually works until buying it, even if the price goes up." It might be a small percentage, but it's a small percentage of a large pool of existing owners.

 

[Christine69420]

No clear Tesla Shanghai second factory \ Giga shanghai\4K # 467 | WuWa (50 min ago)

Could be that the Pollution Reduction Act in the US has shifted focus to North America for the near future. Ramping faster in America makes good sense from my perspective. Even if ramping in Europe and China will be somewhat slower.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Could be that the Pollution Reduction Act in the US has shifted focus to North America for the near future. Ramping faster in America makes good sense from my perspective. Even if ramping in Europe and China will be somewhat slower.

Haha, I highly doubt it. Tesla can do 2 projects at once. They are not capital constrained. China is their most profitable factory, only makes sense to expand there. I think WuWa has lots of theories, not too many highly-placed sources...

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Likewise, right near me in Virginia, they pay an annual property tax on the value of their car. In Fairfax county (probably highest concentration of Tesla's in my area), it's over 4.5%. If you add FSD to the purchase price, that's an extra $675 you have you pay in property tax every year.

Creative So are there a bunch of nice homes with junk cars out front?

I'm jumping in the middle of this discussion, but seems FSD will affect earnings in 2 different ways. There's per unit sales of FSD and whether that shows up in earnings, then there's FSD adoption at some city level and how that accelerates adoption. The real value for me is in the latter and will drive sales. A 3rd way is where Tesla has their own robo-taxis; in that case there could be zero sales of FSD with a very large revenue impact. So I'm just not as hooked on today's sales or take rate because >50% use is inevitable just a few years out no matter who purchases FSD today. Data and economics drive this while the perception follows.

But I would imagine it could really juice sales margins as the take rate rises.

 

[lklundin]

Yeah, Texas plant really seemed to have a bust Q2 with it opening only with the 4680 cells (i.e. tiny production). The equipment to build with the 2170 cells arrived late Q2 so the "real" opening has basically been Q3. Ramp is modest to date....loooooong way to go before they hit anything like Shanghai plant (if ever). What I really want to see is significant quarter over quarter increases and no "stalls" on the output. Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 will be better indicators of ramp for sure. Regardless, it APPEARS neither Berlin or Texas will add materially to the production numbers this year which is disappointing in the short term, but likely immaterial a year or two from now.

GigaBerlin's VINs are sequencially increasing and the subset that are exported to Norway are public (at e.g. Tesla Registration Stats), so the "German Tank Problem" is perfectly suited to estimate GigaBerlin's production:

German tank problem - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

With the expectation that the production rate at GigaBerlin is non-constant, the total production is less interesting than the recent rate of production on e.g. a weekly basis. As such one can base the estimate on the most recent D days - where for those D days the effective maximum observed VIN is the actual maximum observed VIN minus the maximum observed one D+1 days ago.

Because of the random nature of the day when a new maximum VIN is observed, the estimated rate of production is strongly dependent on the choice of D. Further, with a too small D, the fluctuations in the estimate are less likely to reflect actual production rate fluctuations and more likely to be an effect caused by the random nature of the maximum VIN occurrence. Lastly, with a too large D the estimate is at risk of being impacted by actual changes in the production rate during those D days.

To overcome this, one can compute the estimate for all meaningful values of D, e.g. D=7,8,9,... up to some limit where the production rate can be assumed to not have changed (e.g. some time after GigaBerlin's 2nd shift started). One can then make a histogram of the production estimates over D.

Based on this approach (for any histogram bucket size in the range 50 - 150) the average weekly production rate at GigaBerlin in the past 5, 6 and 7 weeks is about 1750.

Some expected, systematic errors in this approach:
1) There is some latency in a VIN being produced at GigaBerlin before it can be observed in Norway - basically the time to transport and register the vehicle there,
2) It is possible that certain production days are allocated to Norway, while others are not - e.g. if a whole train is going to be filled up with Norway exports. In such a case (a "Norway wave") the observed VINs will indicate a fluctuation in production rate which is not real but rather caused by a sampling bias. If this actually happens it seems to be on a timescale not discernible among the noisy samples.

 

[Andy O]

in Canada, cars over $75,000 USD ($100,000 CAD) have to pay an extra "luxury" tax of 10% of the total purchase and 20% of the amount over the limit

It's an "or", not an "and", which changes the amount of tax substantially. "10% of the total purchase or 20% of the amount over the limit"

 

[mongo]

It's an "or", not an "and", which changes the amount of tax substantially. "10% of the total purchase or 20% of the amount over the limit"

Indeed, it is effectively "or" but the law is "and"; @willow_hiller dropped the opening section's 'lesser of'.

34 The amount of tax payable under this Division (other than Subdivision D) in respect of a subject item is equal to the lesser of
(a) the amount determined by the formula A × B where A is the taxable amount of the subject item, and B is 10%, and
(b) the amount determined by the formula (C − D) × E where C is the taxable amount of the subject item, D is the price threshold in respect of the subject item, and E is 20%.

Note: this is for imports, which adds weight to idea of a Canadian Tesla Gigafactory. (Mod: user request --ggr)

 

[Alphacrux]

Can anyone say, 'S-curve'?

WSJ: (subscription required):
Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

• Long backlogs for EVs
• "A few years ago, auto executives weren't sure there would be enough buyers for plug-in electric models. Now, they worry they can't build them fast enough, while they intensify a multibillion-dollar rush to accelerate timelines and bring factories online"
• EVs account for only about 6% of overall US vehicle sales. That percentage has tripled in the last two years, while sales of other types of vehicles has declined"
• In July, 5 of the six fastest selling vehicles in the US were electrics of PHEVs.
• Inflation reduction act has stoked consumer demand.
• Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.
• Auto makers have found themselves hampered by insufficient supplies of critical parts, such as computer chips.
• Batteries are another bottleneck. Locking in contracts for battery cells on short notice from among a handful of global cell manufacturers presents a big challenge.
• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands. Output is being constrained by battery supplies.
• Some executives from traditional car companies acknowledge they were too cautious on their early plans for electrics.
• Parts shortages at Rivian
• Lucid having problems securing parts that are normally in ample supply, such as carpet and glass.
• "Battery arms race". Chasing Tesla which has spent more than a decade developing a battery supply chain.
• Ford's Farley: Only half of the battery raw materials the auto industry needs to achieve its long-range EV sales targets are available today.
• Richard Sowden, principal at Frontier Investment Management Co, which owns about 2.8 million GM shares" "We believe that the manufacturing expertise of existing large auto companies like GM gives them a huge advantage"