Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

BUT WHAT ABOUT FUNNY!!!

Now I must know how much does funny account for?

oops, forgot about funny. funnies are +1
(added funnies to original formula)

 

[jabloomf1230]

Lora Kolodny reports: (click for full list)
“Here are the [27 Elon Musk] direct reports we know about as of September 2022. The data was gathered from interviews with current and recent Tesla employees, LinkedIn profiles, internal and public records from Tesla, and may not include all of the people who report to him”

Good to know what is truly important.

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One of my daughters is a CFO and I'm going to tell her to change her title to CFO and Master of Coin.

 

[ZeApelido]

BUT WHAT ABOUT FUNNY!!!

Now I must know how much does funny account for?

It must be signficant because I contribute nothing of value yet...

 

[Max Plaid]

Nice to see the accuracy of your predictions has not changed.

I rest my case m'lud

 

[Max Plaid]

This is probably the UK’s largest weakness, TBH.

In resource economies there is a thing called “Dutch disease” where the presence of large amounts of oil or gas, much much more than you can use, causes your currencies or relative international incomes to rise much higher than would normally be, which then causes the tradable goods sector to be hollowed out. It’s called Dutch disease because this happened to the Netherlands when they found large gas deposits in the 60s/70s.

I think the UK has a version of this (“London disease”?) where the financial services industry in London achieves basically the same effect. If you look at the British economy outside of London, it’s pretty bad… The GDP per capita of cities like Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, etc are some of the lowest in Western Europe. Manufacturing is only ~8% of GDP now, and R&D spending only 1.7%.

Housing is also a problem, but that is shared in much of the west from years of low interest rates and NIMBYist policies.

Not forgetting that Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds are cess-pits, only eclipsed by the anuses (anii??) of the UK: Coventry, Leicester, Hull and Coventry (again)

 

[AndrewZ]

It kinda is though...

Define pessimism - Google Search

a tendency to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen; a lack of hope or confidence in the future.

Some would argue that pessimism in the investing world helps set you up for opportunities, it doesn't need to be a bad thing. Hope for the best but plan for the worst and all that, you'll minimize the risk of disappointment and maximize the chance of being pleasantly surprised.

This thread is so relentlessly optimistic and seemingly averse to the slightest hint of pessimism, I think it's to a detrimental degree. Anyone who significantly deviates from the optimism is downvoted and run out of the thread. The world is not all sunshine and roses, ya'll need some negativity in your investing lives to be fully informed and prepared for whatever may be coming whether it's good or bad.

 

[Max Plaid]

What is your timeframe for ‘the highest energy prices in the world for the foreseeable future’?

Putin succeeded in realising what no European politician has been able to do: instigate a huge carbon-tax.
The European economy in that ‘foreseeable future’ will be driven by the desire to eliminate that carbon tax. Compared to the USA, Europe is already very frugal with energy consumption, and this lead will increase heavily and fast driven by this carbon tax incentive. E.g. some anecdotal evidence in the news of roofers having a 2 year backlog for renovating and isolating roofs.
There’s a huge amount of new wind energy capacity in the pipelines, and there’s a very long backlog for new solar installations.
When this episode of energy shortages is behind us, Europe will be much more competitive (and green!) energy-wise than the USA, just like what happened during the oil crisis in the seventies.

No *sugar*, Sherlock - I was in Manhattan a few weeks ago and the flamboyant use, abuse, even, of air-conditioning dumbfounded me - even huge space open to the outside were cooled, every shop, every mall, bar, totally staggering

Here in Europe we mostly sweat and stink - added side-effect is that it helps keep the population in check

 

[Krugerrand]

Some would argue that pessimism in the investing world helps set you up for opportunities, it doesn't need to be a bad thing. Hope for the best but plan for the worst and all that, you'll minimize the risk of disappointment and maximize the chance of being pleasantly surprised.

This thread is so relentlessly optimistic and seemingly averse to the slightest hint of pessimism, I think it's to a detrimental degree. Anyone who significantly deviates from the optimism is downvoted and run out of the thread. The world is not all sunshine and roses, ya'll need some negativity in your investing lives to be fully informed and prepared for whatever may be coming whether it's good or bad.

You didn’t get the disagree for deviating from optimism, you got it for trying to tell me what I need in my investment life. You don’t know mouse nuts.

 

[SO16]

Earlier this year the powers that be made a change in the rating system on TMC. A thumbs down no longer lowers your score.

The old way was so much better. Now I can’t see how much I tick people off.

 

[AndrewZ]

You didn’t get the disagree for deviating from optimism, you got it for trying to tell me what I need in my investment life. You don’t know mouse nuts.

This one disagree from you is for trying to tell you what you need in your investment life.

The dozens of other disagrees from you prior to this one? Those were for deviating from optimism.

 

[woodisgood]

Expectations, even if kind of joking, for Optimus on AI Day 2 are starting to fly a little high.

How’s that for pessimistic?

 

[Cattledog]

Here in Europe we mostly sweat and stink - added side-effect is that it helps keep the population in check

Might hinder the next generation's social services and pensions, at least according to Elon...

 

[Gigapress]

Some would argue that pessimism in the investing world helps set you up for opportunities, it doesn't need to be a bad thing. Hope for the best but plan for the worst and all that, you'll minimize the risk of disappointment and maximize the chance of being pleasantly surprised.

This thread is so relentlessly optimistic and seemingly averse to the slightest hint of pessimism, I think it's to a detrimental degree. Anyone who significantly deviates from the optimism is downvoted and run out of the thread. The world is not all sunshine and roses, ya'll need some negativity in your investing lives to be fully informed and prepared for whatever may be coming whether it's good or bad.

Negativity for its own sake is worse than useless. Facts that happen to be negative are good to know in order to avoid bad consequences. I would suggest that you try bringing some factually based negativity to this thread and see if you get a different response.

Relentless optimism does not seem to characterize this thread. We definitely have high estimates for what Tesla will accomplish, but there's no evidence of us ignoring negative information because it's unpleasant. Go pick random pages from the past year and see if you notice pessimism about the effect on Tesla and TSLA of stuff like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party, inflation, COVID, interest rates, recession, government corruption and ineptitude in the USA and Germany, Elon's Twitter acquisition and political activity, Wall Street corruption, NHTSA supposedly maybe shutting down FSD development, Texas abortion laws, bad customer service in solar, botched solar roof rollout, etc.

 

[Buckminster]

Expectations, even if kind of joking, for Optimus on AI Day 2 are starting to fly a little high.

Yep, based on the arm design, Optimus will be able to pilot a 737 fairly easily:

 

[KBF]

Gotta be careful with that. IIRC Tesla sold a version to the Canadian market like this, and to this day they still haven't allowed people to buy to open up the "reserved" capacity.

IIRC there were concerns of "fraud" if they opened it back up.

Right - apparently the "non-fraud" way is to just charge a subscription for things that should be included, like BMW's heated seats...

 

[euro2012]

Some would argue that pessimism in the investing world helps set you up for opportunities, it doesn't need to be a bad thing. Hope for the best but plan for the worst and all that, you'll minimize the risk of disappointment and maximize the chance of being pleasantly surprised.

This thread is so relentlessly optimistic and seemingly averse to the slightest hint of pessimism, I think it's to a detrimental degree. Anyone who significantly deviates from the optimism is downvoted and run out of the thread. The world is not all sunshine and roses, ya'll need some negativity in your investing lives to be fully informed and prepared for whatever may be coming whether it's good or bad.

A wise man once said “I would rather be an optimist and be wrong than a pessimist and be right”. Seems like a much more enjoyable way to go through life.

 

[Ogre]

Expectations, even if kind of joking, for Optimus on AI Day 2 are starting to fly a little high.

How’s that for pessimistic?

Every time Elon talks about Optimus or Robotaxi, the SP goes down.

Perversely, if Optimus progress is good, Musk will talk about it more and the SP will drop even more. Media and most of Wall Street are equally skeptical that Robotaxi will be a smash hit, so any conversations about Robotaxi will be viewed as distractions and also cause a drop in the SP.

I am pessimistic that AI Day will have any positive effect on the SP.

Long term, I think both Optimus and Robotaxi are moonshots of the best sort, but I struggle to see how either will positively affect the SP in the next few weeks. The earnings call on the other hand I have high expectations for.

 

[PeterJA]

Negativity for its own sake is worse than useless. Facts that happen to be negative are good to know in order to avoid bad consequences. I would suggest that you try bringing some factually based negativity to this thread and see if you get a different response.

Relentless optimism does not seem to characterize this thread. We definitely have high estimates for what Tesla will accomplish, but there's no evidence of us ignoring negative information because it's unpleasant. Go pick random pages from the past year and see if you notice pessimism about the effect on Tesla and TSLA of stuff like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party, inflation, COVID, interest rates, recession, government corruption and ineptitude in the USA and Germany, Elon's Twitter acquisition and political activity, Wall Street corruption, NHTSA supposedly maybe shutting down FSD development, Texas abortion laws, bad customer service in solar, botched solar roof rollout, etc.

Also. no one is "run out of the thread" for pessimism. If a poster runs away because his/her feelings were injured by downvotes, then the fleeing is his/her choice, not the thread's.

Hot tip: Such misassignment of responsibility is the kind of falsehood that earns downvotes.

 

[AndrewZ]

That's weird because I seem to have found several examples easily. Maybe your search engine is broken?

• Audi e-tron
• BMW iX
• Jaguar I-PACE
• Rivian R1S
• Ford Mach-E
• Genesis GV60
• Volvo C40 Recharge

Also let's bear in mind the legislation does not include any inflation adjustment for the $7500 Clean Vehicle Credit or the vehicle MSRP limits. Plenty more BEV models could catch up to that $80k limit as prices across the board creep up over time.



The law says that the Secretary (of the Treasury) is responsible for regulating vehicle classification "using criteria similar to that employed by the EPA and the DoE".

The EPA currently classifies the Y as an SUV, and likewise also assigns SUV status to hundreds of other similar vehicles (source), so that's a strong indication that the Y will be considered an SUV for the purposes of clean vehicle credit eligibility. I'm not a legal or tax expert but I do know how to read English and this seems pretty straightforward to me.

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Source

The EPA definitions are in:
US Code Title 40 (Protection of Environment)
—> Chapter I (Environmental Protection Agency)
—> Subpart Q (Energy Policy)
—> Part 600 (Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Motor Vehicles)
—>Subpart A (General Provisions)
(link)

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So what's the problem here? Maybe it's related to this?



If you start with motivated reasoning with a goal of dumping cold water on optimism rather than a goal of accurate understanding, it's unsurprising if you end up without an accurate understanding.

The Mach-E and Volvo XC40 Recharge are the two vehicles out of the list you provided that are in the same "Small Sport Utility Vehicle" category, and neither have price tags that I would consider remotely close to $80k. The Rivian R1S has a massive battery pack and is what I would consider a real SUV, and this category will most definitely limit the price on that one.

If you believe this bill is designed to subsidize Audis and Jaguars, I think you’re reinforcing my point about this.

Side note that you can drop the emotional insults and snide remarks, you’re not goading me into an overreaction.

 

[woodisgood]

Every time Elon talks about Optimus or Robotaxi, the SP goes down.

Perversely, if Optimus progress is good, Musk will talk about it more and the SP will drop even more. Media and most of Wall Street are equally skeptical that Robotaxi will be a smash hit, so any conversations about Robotaxi will be viewed as distractions and also cause a drop in the SP.

I am pessimistic that AI Day will have any positive effect on the SP.

Long term, I think both Optimus and Robotaxi are moonshots of the best sort, but I struggle to see how either will positively affect the SP in the next few weeks. The earnings call on the other hand I have high expectations for.

I agree…if anything AI Day 2 will offer a buying opportunity as well as delight us geeks.

The only way it doesn’t is if Tesla presents deployment plans for either robotaxi or the bot that allow analysts to start modeling financials. Of course we know Tesla would be reticent to do this as a) it’s a recruiting event and b) it is still probably too early to reveal those types of details for either project.