Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

It’s likely that US GDP will be revised upwards to come more in line with GDI. The two should be the same by they have diverged ~3%.

That is what the market expected today and it didn't happen.

 

[AndrewZ]

In China you have a property bubble that just keeps looking worse and worse by the day. That alongside zero Covid has really hurt their economy. We (meaning the world, not Tesla investors) are used to huge Chinese economic growth, what happens when that stops and what that does to sales of expensive vehicles is a question. It may not hurt the overall sales numbers, but it may hit the margins. Right now, I'd say this is the biggest risk, but the risk that can be most mitigated by exports.

Europe I think is an area that could be hit harder. They are about to go through a very rough winter where there is going to be a recession (and a fairly sizable one from the looks of it) alongside an energy crunch. Both are likely to hit Tesla. Less sales of vehicles just do less spending in general as people have to divert to energy and other necessary goods. There is also a risk that production in Berlin could be limited by outside forces.

In the US, rising interest rates will cause auto loan rates to increase decreasing the affordability and will be running into the natural economic headwinds.

Cybertruck won't be in production until mid next year. The risk is over the next 6-9 months.

IMO the risk is far less than other companies, but instead of 50-60% growth... we might be looking more at 40-45%.

Some bears think we may have already seen "peak China".

We've spent the last 2-3 decades living in a globalization experiment featuring insane growth and low inflation helped by China working incredibly hard to bring hundreds of millions of its citizens out of rural poverty and into something better. That experiment is now unwinding and is being replaced by concerns about national security, domestic manufacturing, and the risks presented by becoming too reliant on other entities who might not have everyone's best interests in mind.

Past performance is not indicative of future results, it's possible that financial rules developed over our adult lives might not apply to the next 20-30 years.

I think deglobalization will be inflationary at its core and we could be looking at higher interest rates for much longer than most currently expect. In a worst-case scenario where China actually makes a move on Taiwan before we have a chance to mitigate risks by setting up our own domestic manufacturing, that could be a real Black Swan event.

Best case scenario is setting up all of this stuff, but it'll all cost more than it did when we were outsourcing everything to areas with cheap labour, lax environmental regulations, etc.

 

[ZachF]

Said it before, will say it again:

We have a labor "problem". We also have an immigration "problem". Am I the only one that sees a near-perfect solution here with something like an expanded work visa?

You dig into the labor numbers, it's the low-end jobs that really are open like crazy. Hospitality, construction, etc. Low-skilled positions.

Seems like a perfect solution, if people in charge could put their egos aside and look at things objectively for once.

The problem is both parties are too focused on the illegal immigration side to the point where our legal immigration policies get completely sidelined.

Most of the developed world is looking at demographic problems stemming from low birth rates, we should be hoovering up the world’s talent wholesale right now and aiming for ~1.5% population growth.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

They know that, but that doesn't mean they are going to lie down right now. They are much more likely to continue to escalate in an attempt to break the West's will on arming and funding Ukraine. I'd expect the winter will be pretty rough in that area.

The winter is Russia's ace in the hole.

 

[insaneoctane]

I don't see green anywhere

 

[wtlloyd]

I think you missed my point: these people are already HERE. Already coming across the border. Nothing we have done has stopped that, and it is accelerating.

Might as well find a way to make them pay taxes on their wages (SS, Medicare, etc.). They are going to pull money out of the system regardless, at least with Visas they could put something back into it.

Nothing short of starvation will make middle-class Americans take the jobs the non-legal residents are taking. Your kids and mine don't want to wash cars, build houses, pick tomatoes, or work in a meat packing plant.
I have always been amused at the complaints about "freeloading illegals" sucking up all the resources. In fact, the HUGE percentage of non-citizens working illegally are employed and paid through established payroll systems, and they have their pay garnished just like every other wage earner by federal, state and retirement taxes. That money taken from their paychecks is gone forever to them, they do not receive any benefit through a tax refund or social security. They pay all the use taxes on gasoline, utilities, and communications, they pay sales tax in every state where they are collected. They contribute massively without receiving the benefit of service, not to mention representation in government.
A visitor work permit, good for a specified period and tied to entry and departure border records is a simple and reasonable solution. It was that way in California for decades, until a right wing jerkoff of a governor saw an easy way to stir up FUD for campaign profit.

 

[henchman24]

The winter is Russia's ace in the hole.

It is really their last grasp. If they can't break the will over the winter and then win a spring counter offensive, they'll lose pretty quickly in April/May. If they can win a counter offensive, it will get even uglier.

 

[ZachF]

That is what the market expected today and it didn't happen.

Well, no wonder the market is down.

 

[thx1139]

The problem is both parties are too focused on the illegal immigration side to the point where our legal immigration policies get completely sidelined.

Most of the developed world is looking at demographic problems stemming from low birth rates, we should be hoovering up the world’s talent wholesale right now and aiming for ~1.5% population growth.

Dont both sides it.

 

[ZeApelido]

Cyberboatish

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575508498430820352

 

[bkp_duke]

It is really their last grasp. If they can't break the will over the winter and then win a spring counter offensive, they'll lose pretty quickly in April/May. If they can win a counter offensive, it will get even uglier.

They can BARELY feed and clothe their troops now. Winter is going to be a far bigger problem for Russian troops in Ukraine than for Ukrainian troops, who are getting supplies shipped in daily from western allies.

 

[bkp_duke]

Dont both sides it.

And therein lies the problem. There should not be "sides" when trying to solve core problems in our country world.

 

[henchman24]

They can BARELY feed and clothe their troops now. Winter is going to be a far bigger problem for Russian troops in Ukraine than for Ukrainian troops, who are getting supplies shipped in daily from western allies.

I completely agree, but this is their last tool and they've shown the willingness to throw troops at the problem... I expect they will do the same here. Frankly Putin and those in power basically know that if they lose in the spring, they are out of power rather quickly. They will do whatever they can to hold power.

 

[thx1139]

And therein lies the problem. There should not be "sides" when trying to solve core problems in our country world.

For some the problem is more advantageous to power than the solutions.

 

[ZachF]

Dont both sides it.

Sorry, but *completely* ignoring the illegal immigration problem is bad policy. It’s so bad that doing it is actually reducing many Americans appetite for legal immigration, which is very very bad. The far left policy on immigration is dumb and not shared by like >70% of the country.

On the other side, the far right wanting curtail legal immigration would be ruinously stupid. Immigration is literally why we are the world’s superpower. Probably 70% of the country doesn’t want this either.

But because the whole immigration debate is so singularly focused on the Illegal side of it, positive policy improvement on the legal side is impossible. Right now green card wait times are like 800 days(!!). On top of this, this pisses off legal immigrants who seem to get penalized for doing things the right way!

If you had a solution that increased border security, but massively increased legal immigration at the same time, probably 70%+ of the country would support it… but like I said both parties are controlled by interests who want things that vast majorities of the country do not want, so we have this dysfunctional mess we are in right now.

 

[MrHopsing]

At best I expect a partly working DOJO system (one cabinet of the exapod?), HW4 details and maybe in cars from now on (would be huge), roadmap to FSD v11 (single stack), and some Optimus basic stuff.

I am hoping that they are in the cars that's manufactured in Q4, especially since the event is on the last day of Q3. If they announce it and it's coming next year I will probably cancel my Plaid and wait, I guess others that are following Tesla news will too.

 

[DarthPierce]

I have driven from the highest drivable point on MT Rainier back to south of Seattle WA without having to use the brake’s. That’s going from 6,500 feet to sea level in 80 miles. I’d do much better going down long grades without the car trying to get away from you and having to ride the brakes.

Pikes peak highway runs from 14,000 feet down to about 7000 in just 20 miles. There is a mandatory brake check part way down. I used my brakes once - for a bighorn sheep in the road.

The guy at the brake check seemed very confused that our brakes were colder than ambient (since it was colder at 14k ft than 10k).

By the end I was getting limited regen, but I'd think semis would solve this by just keeping the battery a bit warmer when going over a big pass or whatever.

 

[Nocturnal]

Best case scenario is setting up all of this stuff, but it'll all cost more than it did when we were outsourcing everything to areas with cheap labour, lax environmental regulations, etc.

And that will bring massive opportunities for the companies that can build all of that out.

 

[EverettRuess]

NOPE. That is a very myopic, short term solution for a deep problem. It may help your labor shortages for now, but you need to think about the problems it brings over the next couple of decades and generations. There will be a time you will end up with a huge unemployment, and that will be bring tremendous social unrest and crime if the people you bring in today (and their kids) do not have the same values that you uphold and cherish today, on which this country was built on

History is your friend. I mean world history. Specifically European history. You don't want end up like France or UK.

Unless of course you want to go the route of gulf countries, where almost all labor is imported and are 2nd class residents and will be kicked out when they can no longer be productive. Which I am sure you don't want either.

"and that will be bring tremendous social unrest and crime if the people you bring in today (and their kids) do not have the same values that you uphold and cherish today, on which this country was built on."

Texas right!! Crime? Social unrest? Values? Is that you Ted. I thought you were in Cancun.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Might as well find a way to make them pay taxes on their wages (SS, Medicare, etc.). They are going to pull money out of the system regardless, at least with Visas they could put something back into it.

"These people" are already paying these taxes. Migrant workers paying the tax and claiming no Social Security benefit is literally the only thing keeping it afloat for all our ultra-irresponsible boomers who don't "share the same values".