Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

If Tesla emerges un-excluded and as a major - if not the major - recipient of IRA benefits, do you think you'll reconsider your insistence that the current administration has it out for Tesla?

I have said over and over again that it is political to hold rust states. Administration publicly gives GM and Ford kudos while Tesla reaps the benefits.
Want proof?

CAFE Standards: Tesla lobbies Administration last year. Administration raises CAFE standards and other auto manufacturers purchase ZEV credits from Tesla. Tesla income from ZEV credits skyrocket in 2022 after going down year after year.

Inflation Reduction Act:
Tax Credit for car purchases are one thing,
Looking deeper the Solar pushed back up to 30% and extended a decade rather than end after 2023 after being reduced to 22%. Add battery storage to the program as well
Battery manufacturing credits. Manufacturers of batteries in the US get credits. Tesla will make out incredibly well.

EPA Renewable Fuel Standard Credit:
EPA under Administration guidance is about to make EV and battery storage and possibly even EV chargers eligible for another credit.

So yeah GM and Ford gets kudos and Tesla gets cash and demand boost. Wall Street is ignoring this stuff by the way.

 

[canoemore]

I have said over and over again that it is political to hold rust states. Administration publicly gives GM and Ford kudos while Tesla reaps the benefits.
Want proof?

CAFE Standards: Tesla lobbies Administration last year. Administration raises CAFE standards and other auto manufacturers purchase ZEV credits from Tesla. Tesla income from ZEV credits skyrocket in 2022 after going down year after year.

Inflation Reduction Act:
Tax Credit for car purchases are one thing,
Looking deeper the Solar pushed back up to 30% and extended a decade rather than end after 2023 after being reduced to 22%. Add battery storage to the program as well
Battery manufacturing credits. Manufacturers of batteries in the US get credits. Tesla will make out incredibly well.

EPA Renewable Fuel Standard Credit:
EPA under Administration guidance is about to make EV and battery storage and possibly even EV chargers eligible for another credit.

So yeah GM and Ford gets kudos and Tesla gets cash and demand boost. Wall Street is ignoring this stuff by the way.

Fully agree. Wish others would keep an open mind to this nuance.

 

[Dutchie]

After months and months; who is still selling?

 

[betstarship]

After months and months; who is still selling?

Scared people. The world certainly isn't in a healthy spot right now.

I'm seeing folks look at Treasury Bonds over the stock market.

 

[mongo]

8. But this also has a numerical effect on Tesla caacity build in the later years, with the max capacity build rate becoming capped at 2m/yr due to competition effects. This would mean Tesla reaches max 16m/yr in 2030, not 20m/yr, i.e. this effect starts to cut in as the GM% stabilises, likely due to internal Tesla discipline.

Even with a reduced operating profit, ability to expand would be proportional to size (exponential growth), not fixed (linear growth). Capping growth at 2m/yr implys a continually decreasing GM.

Saw a screenshot of a YouTube video that’s been removed since.
View attachment 860688
It seems to be the 9000 ton one for CyberTruck, title says built completed, testing completed!!!
View attachment 860691

That's footage from the IDRA factory. They assemble and dry run the presses before disassembling and shipping them. They previously had videos with it assembled, so I wouldn't make too much of it.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

any mutual fund prospectus will describe grades of securities they can purchase.

Bond Ratings - Fidelity

Learn how bond ratings work, Fidelity explains the fine points on reading the ratings.

www.fidelity.com

Basically most public-oriented funds won't touch non-investment-grade rated equities unless the fund is specifically targeting high-risk/high-yield. But yeah each fund gets to make their own rules - it's hard to measure exactly how big an increase of possible-buying-footprint the change to BBB gives to TSLA, but it is a complete category-shift in the rather arbitrary ratings universe.

 

[geometro]

any mutual fund prospectus will describe grades of securities they can purchase.

I get that for fixed income, but not for equities.

 

[StapleGun]

You're missing a lot in your math there.

First- it did NOT go to everyone above 80 (see the FSD threads for people who have not gotten it and are above 80)--- just like folks who were above previous score minimums didn't all get it--- they appear to still be (as they did every previous time) cap total # in the beta in addition to a score minimum.

Second- it also did not go to anyone who did not request getting into the beta program- we don't know that number but it's non-zero.

Third- Folks with MCU1 but FSD can't get it at all- so they'd also be excluded but still be in the "owns FSD" fleet and I expect they'll get a free MCU2 upgrade once wide release happens. (DItto HW2.0 camera S/X owners who need newer cameras to get in but don't have them yet).

And that third group is most of the very-early adopters you were insisting were most likely in the beta- but can't be due to HW limits.

Very good points! Let's put some estimates to those groups.

The first group is probably the largest of those, my understanding is it's a reasonably small minority though. Maybe 25,000 people? Can;t see how it would be over 100,000 people, keep in mind people who have it aren't frequenting the threads where people without it are complaining.

The second group is pretty tough to estimate, my intuition says it would be well below 10% though. Most people knowledgeable enough to have purchased the option are going to know by now how to request it.

As for the 3rd group(s), I can't imagine that being more than 20,000 people.

So with my estimates I'm still thinking we're under 250,000 total cars on the road with FSD purchased. Happy to take feedback on my estimates though, admittedly I don't follow this as closely as it seems like you do.

 

[betstarship]

“S&P’s upgrade is the latest, but not the last for Tesla,” said Joel Levington, a Bloomberg Intelligence credit analyst. “We see its ratings eventually moving toward high BBB this year.”

Tesla Nears Blue-Chip Status After S&P Upgrades Credit Score - BNN Bloomberg

Tesla Inc. is one step closer to clinching overall blue-chip status after S&P Global Ratings raised the electric-vehicle maker’s credit score to investment grade.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

More:

"
The carmaker now needs just one more upgrade from another major credit grader for its debt to be broadly considered investment grade. Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Tesla to Ba1, one notch below investment grade in January.

“To enhance its competitive position, Tesla will need to expand its range of products to contend with a substantially higher number of models from established global automakers and startups by the end of 2025,” the S&P analysts wrote.
"

 

[corduroy]

Scared people. The world certainly isn't in a healthy spot right now.

I'm seeing folks look at Treasury Bonds over the stock market.

9.67% risk free I bonds are nothing to sneeze at. Too bad the max you can buy is $10k/person/year.

 

[bkp_duke]

9.67% risk free I bonds are nothing to sneeze at. Too bad the max you can buy is $10k/person/year.

As a TSLA investor, thank God the most someone can buy is 10k/yr. If they were uncapped, it would even crazier drops in the stock market.

 

[hacer]

With his ownership it is no longer if he tweets something unpopular. All sorts of conspiracies and charges will be thrown at Tesla because of Elon owning Twitter. He hasnt done people that believe in the Tesla and SpaceX visions any favor.

This. On top of it there's also the possibility that besides conspiracies and charges Elon might actually really do something to Twitter that is very bad.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Investment grade status … and stock doesn’t react, at all. Just like I predicted and was pilloried for saying such here.

 

[betstarship]

If you love chaordic systems, this time period sure has a lot of it.

 

[woodisgood]

IG is a slow drip. It allows billions of dollars to buy in over time, not in one day or one week. Combined with excellent financials from Q3 and Q4, just adds to probability that we’ll see stable moves upwards.

 

[MP3Mike]

Investment grade status … and stock doesn’t react, at all. Just like I predicted and was pilloried for saying such here.

I think both rating agencies need to upgrade TSLA before it really makes a difference. Like the article from Bloomberg says that was linked to above.

The carmaker now needs just one more upgrade from another major credit grader for its debt to be broadly considered investment grade. Moody’s Investors Service upgraded Tesla to Ba1, one notch below investment grade in January.

So we are still waiting for Moody's to do their upgrade. (Which likely won't be until after the Semi and/or Cybertruck start shipping.)

 

[2daMoon]

IG is a slow drip. It allows billions of dollars to buy in over time, not in one day or one week. Combined with excellent financials from Q3 and Q4, just adds to probability that we’ll see stable moves upwards.

Stable moves?

Does that mean this pony will stop trying to buck us off it's back?

 

[Runarbt]

Well, S&P500 inclusion didnt have an immediate effect on the SP either.. until it did.;-)

Might take days, might take weeks. Lets get to Q3 ER, blow everyones expectations away and see which new funds come running to grab their share of $tsla

«patience young grasshopper»

 

[FSDtester#1]

This. On top of it there's also the possibility that besides conspiracies and charges Elon might actually really do something to Twitter that is very bad.

I don't think the cesspool that is Twitter could actually get worse...

 

[wipster]

Apologies if this has been posted:

Twitter refuses Elon's bid

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578137050146131969