Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InTheMiddle]

How about a constant narrative for 2-3 weeks now that Elon will have to sell more and the only reason he hasn't yet is because of the earnings trade window?

As bkp_duke points out, there are a great many unknowns (unknown to us, that is) to know if he would need to sell additional TSLA shares to close this deal. Once already he has not only considered additional sales, but gone thru with such a sale, as we all are (painfully) aware. In the vein of my “discuss the middle between the extremes”, I don’t think it’s 0% chance of additional sales, but I don’t think it’s 100% chance either. I wish instead of saying “It will” or “It won’t”, people were discussing what probability they assign it, what size it might be, and most importantly, what can avoid or minimize it. IMHO, any additional investors he can bring into the mix greatly decreases the probability and the potential size. I hope he is calling around.

How about rampant speculation that investors are bailing on Elon even though there's no proof?

The speculation is based on current market dynamics vs the environment in which the deal was originally formed, as well as the perceived lower value of the purchased entity due to Musk’s assertion of the bots prevalence. The primary party expressly saying that what is being purchased is a less good asset than what was envisioned would fall in the facts category, and should lead rational investors to consider bailing. The “proof” you ask for is in Musk considering it a sufficiently high likelihood that he himself sold additional shares to help cover investors who are bailing on the deal.

Or how about Elon clearly stating after he last sold that the sell was intended as backup if the twitter buyout went through AND his investors bailed on him?

Hopefully all can agree that this is clearly Musk seeing a high risk (certainty?) of at least investors bailing on him. Question is, was his additional sales sufficient, an overshoot, or an undershoot?

It's just as likely at this point that Elon has free cash to buy TSLA shares as much as he has to sell TSLA shares.

I would certainly not assign those two probabilities as equal.

I don't know how you think a random person on CNBC spreading a rumor that Elon is "frantically" contacting investors to for money without showing ANY PROOF of it is anything but fear mongering FUD.

If it was true, he should back it up without something of substance. He didn't. It's FUD.

Confirmation bias, perhaps - in that, as I consider each of the roles (Musk, cash co-investor, or purchase loan lender), I see some of each of the latter two wanting to decrease or eliminate their planned component as a > 50% probability event (Musk himself wanted to cancel the deal, which would count as eliminating his planned component as well), and I am uncertain whether Musk can cover the gap without taking…non-ideal measures. Hence, hearing unconfirmed reports that he is seeking additional co-investor funds matches my expectation of what would be needed.

 

[BornToFly]

I can't tell you how happy it would make me if after market close today Elon Tweeted that funding is secured.....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As bkp_duke points out, there are a great many unknowns (unknown to us, that is) to know if he would need to sell additional TSLA shares to close this deal. Once already he has not only considered additional sales, but gone thru with such a sale, as we all are (painfully) aware. In the vein of my “discuss the middle between the extremes”, I don’t think it’s 0% chance of additional sales, but I don’t think it’s 100% chance either. I wish instead of saying “It will” or “It won’t”, people were discussing what probability they assign it, what size it might be, and most importantly, what can avoid or minimize it. IMHO, any additional investors he can bring into the mix greatly decreases the probability and the potential size. I hope he is calling around.

The speculation is based on current market dynamics vs the environment in which the deal was originally formed, as well as the perceived lower value of the purchased entity due to Musk’s assertion of the bots prevalence. The primary party expressly saying that what is being purchased is a less good asset than what was envisioned would fall in the facts category, and should lead rational investors to consider bailing. The “proof” you ask for is in Musk considering it a sufficiently high likelihood that he himself sold additional shares to help cover investors who are bailing on the deal.

Hopefully all can agree that this is clearly Musk seeing a high risk (certainty?) of at least investors bailing on him. Question is, was his additional sales sufficient, an overshoot, or an undershoot?

I would certainly not assign those two probabilities as equal.

Confirmation bias, perhaps - in that, as I consider each of the roles (Musk, cash co-investor, or purchase loan lender), I see some of each of the latter two wanting to decrease or eliminate their planned component as a > 50% probability event (Musk himself wanted to cancel the deal, which would count as eliminating his planned component as well), and I am uncertain whether Musk can cover the gap without taking…non-ideal measures. Hence, hearing unconfirmed reports that he is seeking additional co-investor funds matches my expectation of what would be needed.

Sure buddy lol

 

[mongo]

Regarding the twelfth tranche of Elon's 2018 CEO Compensation plan....
It did not vest this quarter. Trailing four quarter revenue was 'only' $74.863B, $137 million (3 thousand cars) short of the $75B level.
Q4's revenue needs to be $17.856 to vest.

Missed it by >< much.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Simulation confirmed. Note PE Ratio.

View attachment 865815

Sorry to rain on your parade but that's not factoring in Q3's EPS. TTM PE down to 63.55 now

We can't even get a 69

 

[Ogre]

If SP stays this low (or FSM forbid goes lower) I will be interviewing for a Taco Bell drive through customer service technician job.

You don’t think it would be fun hanging out with Cryptocurrency investors and swapping war stories?

 

[FSDtester#1]

I can't tell you how happy it would make me if after market close today Elon Tweeted that funding is secured.....

6 more trading days at most before the Judge ordered deadline to purchase Twitter.
We made it fron November 2021 til today. So a week from tomorrow the giant smelly deal will be done and we can move on to important things.

I don't know, perhaps like 50% yoy growth, CT, semi, decreasing cogs, etc.
You know, those things analysts look at for all companies not TSLA...

 

[elasalle]

added 10 Jan 23 300 calls around $3.10 each (from pigg(CC)y bank) ...
... Elon/TWTR marriage/divorce, Semi, FSD beta US, 4Q ..... I see you ....

 

[Cherry Wine]

added 10 Jan 23 300 calls around $3.10 each (from pigg(CC)y bank) ...
... Elon/TWTR marriage/divorce, Semi, FSD beta US, 4Q ..... I see you ....

Are these really that cheap? Wow!! They were trading at $40 just a month ago. I will take a look at a similar trade on any significant dip tomorrow.

 

[Unpilot]

104 million shares traded so far ..
And we are within 1 dollar of where it opened?

 

[elasalle]

Are these really that cheap? Wow!! They were trading at $40 just a month ago. I will take a look at a similar trade on any significant dip tomorrow.

You forced me to open my account and reconfirm(just incase I made a mistake), but yes ...

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Are these really that cheap? Wow!! They were trading at $40 just a month ago. I will take a look at a similar trade on any significant dip tomorrow.

I know I shouldn't ask, because I won't understand the answer, but I'm feeling masochistic today.

Does this mean you can buy 100 at 310 dollars and if the SP reaches 300 by Jan. 23 you get to keep them?

 

[UltradoomY]

Is the 3 day rule still in effect?

That being with any good news or earnings report that it takes 3 full days afterwards for it to "sink" in?

If that is so - we have to grit our teeth and see the rocket ship on Monday!

 

[Cherry Wine]

I know I shouldn't ask, because I won't understand the answer, but I'm feeling masochistic today.

Does this mean you can buy 100 at 310 dollars and if the SP reaches 300 by Jan. 23 you get to keep them?

Buying the call obligates the seller of the call to sell you 100 shares at $300 a share if TSLA is >= $300 at time of expiration (or any time before, should you choose to exercise that option).

 

[bkp_duke]

Shocking that a beat on EPS, a very slight miss on Revenue, an extremely positive outlook and earnings call, when the stock is already down 50%, causes a drop of 7.5%.

Oh wait, no it isn't.

Stay strong, longs. The bears can have 2022. This year sucks anyway. The rest of the decade is ours.

Exactly. What is REALLY telling is the narrative that MSM is trying to spin here.

Elon Musk pumps Tesla stock with ridiculous $4 trillion target. Is a dump coming next?

Another Tesla Inc. earnings call and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission...

www.marketwatch.com

Tesla misses quarterly revenue expectations amid fears of slowing demand

Company posts $3.3bn in net income and $21.45bn in revenue as vehicle production outstrips delivery

www.theguardian.com

Elon Musk jumps the shark: “Tesla worth more than Apple and Aramco combined”

The visionary CEO may have spilled key details over his upcoming Master Plan Part 3 as he looks to sell down shares ahead of his likely $44 billion Twitter purchase.

fortune.com

- Ridicule of the 4T valuation prediction by Elon
- Fear of "missed guidance" on not hitting 50% YoY growth (let's not compare to all the other major auto manufs which are down HARD this year, forget growth)
- Fear stoking that Elon will sell more TSLA shares for the TWTR acquisition (Gary Black - I'm looking at you, you are not helping this BS).



I've got morons seeing these headline and then texting me that Tesla is going to fail, is losing the race, and that even EVs are doomed.



My conclusion - the education system in the USA is *sugar*. Needs serious revamping if people can't read slide decks themselves, if they can't listen to audio calls about what Elon actually said, etc.

My other conclusion - the legal system needs revamping so that we and individuals can sue the people that put these blatantly mis-leading headlines out.

 

[Singuy]

Exactly. What is REALLY telling is the narrative that MSM is trying to spin here.

Elon Musk pumps Tesla stock with ridiculous $4 trillion target. Is a dump coming next?

Another Tesla Inc. earnings call and another fanciful Elon Musk prediction likely encouraged yet another open file at the Securities and Exchange Commission...

www.marketwatch.com

Tesla misses quarterly revenue expectations amid fears of slowing demand

Company posts $3.3bn in net income and $21.45bn in revenue as vehicle production outstrips delivery

www.theguardian.com

Elon Musk jumps the shark: “Tesla worth more than Apple and Aramco combined”

The visionary CEO may have spilled key details over his upcoming Master Plan Part 3 as he looks to sell down shares ahead of his likely $44 billion Twitter purchase.

fortune.com

- Ridicule of the 4T valuation prediction by Elon
- Fear of "missed guidance" on not hitting 50% YoY growth (let's not compare to all the other major auto manufs which are down HARD this year, forget growth)
- Fear stoking that Elon will sell more TSLA shares for the TWTR acquisition (Gary Black - I'm looking at you, you are not helping this BS).



I've got morons seeing these headline and then texting me that Tesla is going to fail, is losing the race, and that even EVs are doomed.



My conclusion - the education system in the USA is *sugar*. Needs serious revamping if people can't read slide decks themselves, if they can't listen to audio calls about what Elon actually said, etc.

My other conclusion - the legal system needs revamping so that we and individuals can sue the people that put these blatantly mis-leading headlines out.

Your only conclusion should be...why do you have so many moronic friends who has your cell phone number? They will only drag you down.

 

[StealthP3D]

OK so 1 year ago today I said

"I'm not going to predict when 100% BEV worldwide happens (too hard to predict), but I'm going to say the next significant clue will be evident next year when the Model Y takes over the top selling US slot beating out the F150 and all the other gas/diesel vehicles.

Set a reminder, this time next year the top selling US vehicle of any kind will be a Tesla."

and today the reminder hit and someone called me on it.

2022 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Model says it's 9th place for Sep 2022. (Note the default sort order is not by sales for the month, you have to change the sort to see Model Y in 9th place for Sep 2022)

But it's only 1/3 of the sales of a Ford F series and 1/2 the sales of a Rav4 so it's got a way to go still.

I was wrong about how quickly Giga Texas would ramp up.

Remember, the future is hydrogen and things are moving that way quickly. For example, the best-selling hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, the Toyota Murai, went from 671 sales in Q3 2021 to 79 sales in Q3 2022! And the second best-selling hydrogen vehicle, the Hyundai Nexo, went from 139 sales to 74 sales over the same period while the third best-selling FCV, the Honda Clarity FCV, went from 79 sales to 1 sale over the same period.

You may be asking yourself, how does this data support that hydrogen power is the future? Remember, hydrogen is lighter than air, so it has negative weight. This means we have to look at the inverse of the growth rates to get the true results (and that makes about as much sense as most pro-FCV arguments). /s

Seriously, we don't hear much about hydrogen FCV's recently, it seems like the hydrogen boosters have quietly slithered back into the cracks and crevices of the background while sales of FCV's trend towards zero. Good riddance, considering the movement was largely an effort by legacy makers to extend the transition to zero emission vehicles and take the shine off BEV's. I would say Tesla caused that effort to largely fail. Good riddance!

 

[ZeApelido]

Your only conclusion should be...why do you have so many moronic friends who has your cell phone number? They will only drag you down.

He went to Duke. Duke sucks.

 

[Mengy]

I've got morons seeing these headline and then texting me that Tesla is going to fail, is losing the race, and that even EVs are doomed.

I have friends who constantly tell me to sell my TSLA before the company goes under too.



Most of them live paycheck to paycheck, with lots of debt while I am debt free and "retired". I ignore their "advice" and treat it with the amount of respect it deserves.

 

[Drax7]

Dirt cheap, board members should step in and buy.
insiders buy for only one reason.