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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm going to bring up the issue of advertising again (with the understanding of the it's been done many times before and people generally have strong feelings about it). But hear me out.

I think we can all agree that as of now, Tesla doesn't need to advertise in the traditional sense to sell cars. They will sell every car they make, at least for a good long while. But in light of the price reductions in China, I do think it's worth asking whether advertising would allow Tesla to sell those same cars without the need to lower the price. As their business ramps, a $1000 price cut to help sell the next 1 million cars (I'm making up numbers) would remove $1 billion from the bottom line. It would seem that some degree of limited advertising could help move those cars without the need to drop the price, and would cost a lot less than $1 billion.

Now I understand that undercutting the "competition" has value. And that the IRA will have some impacts on price/cost in the US. So the dynamics are complicated. But this could be another lever that could cost much less than a price reduction, and will have the added benefit of educating people about EVs in general, and Tesla in particular. I'm still stunned by the ignorance out there. But I view those as buyers who just haven't been educated yet.
No.

Pay attention. The prices in China are merely where they have been in the past. It’s not like they are lower than they have ever been before. It’s not like lowering the prices causes Tesla to suddenly have razor thin margins. It’s not like the cost of making said vehicles is rising in opposition to the lowering of the prices.

And lastly, Tesla WANTS to sell their cars at the lowest price possible so that as many people as possible can purchase them as a means to the company goal.

Stop it.
 
Was just comparing Tesla share performance with other makes....

Why are Xpeng and Nio down 20% today??
Investors are seeing what Xi pulled this weekend to be some kind of a power move which means hawkish over the Taiwan situation. TSMC is down 6% and over 4% premarket. If the Taiwan thing happens, Chinese made cars will not be sellable overseas.
 
I'm going to bring up the issue of advertising again (with the understanding of the it's been done many times before and people generally have strong feelings about it). But hear me out.

I think we can all agree that as of now, Tesla doesn't need to advertise in the traditional sense to sell cars. They will sell every car they make, at least for a good long while. But in light of the price reductions in China, I do think it's worth asking whether advertising would allow Tesla to sell those same cars without the need to lower the price. As their business ramps, a $1000 price cut to help sell the next 1 million cars (I'm making up numbers) would remove $1 billion from the bottom line. It would seem that some degree of limited advertising could help move those cars without the need to drop the price, and would cost a lot less than $1 billion.

Now I understand that undercutting the "competition" has value. And that the IRA will have some impacts on price/cost in the US. So the dynamics are complicated. But this could be another lever that could cost much less than a price reduction, and will have the added benefit of educating people about EVs in general, and Tesla in particular. I'm still stunned by the ignorance out there. But I view those as buyers who just haven't been educated yet.
Somewhat, but assumes people can afford the higher price. It's amazing on how small price changes affect sales. Downside is there is no value added to the product with advertising, and media would see it as a sure sign of stress.

I bet Tesla China is planning a bump in production vs filling the gap at current production levels. It may be growing factories faster than expected and needs to wake up a few people on the purchasing fence.
 
10-Q ITEM 5. OTHER INFORMATION

"The Board of Directors (the “Board“) of Tesla has established May 16, 2023 as the date of the Company’s 2023 annual meeting of stockholders (the “2023 Annual Meeting”). The time and location of the 2023 Annual Meeting will be specified in the Company’s proxy statement for the 2023 Annual Meeting. The Board has fixed the close of business on March 20, 2023 as the record date for determining stockholders of the Company who are entitled to vote at the 2023 Annual Meeting, including any adjournments or postponements of the 2023 Annual Meeting."​
May is much better! It was way too hot in Austin in August! ;)
 
And lastly, Tesla WANTS to sell their cars at the lowest price possible so that as many people as possible can purchase them as a means to the company goal.

Correct. Tesla isn’t a short term profit maximizing company, it is a long term profit maximizing company. It would rather have less profit in the short term if that meant bigger long term market share/revenues. The whole company is organized around this principle.
 
Thar she goes! Now we'll see if the stop-losses are bigger than the standing buy orders:

View attachment 867006
IMO. With extremely volatile stocks like TSLA, always use a mental stop loss and stick to it. Oh, and stop using the two most dangerous ways (selling puts and using margin) that likely will put you into the need to sell in the first place, and destroy your chances of building wealth.
 
Cross-post from Options thread:
Not a prediction, but in the past when Elon was selling, he did it all day until he was done, and it started at the opening bell.

The current price action just doesn't smell like "Elon selling".
Starting to "smell" now. More than twice average daily volume already and a break below $200.
 
No.

Pay attention. The prices in China are merely where they have been in the past. It’s not like they are lower than they have ever been before. It’s not like lowering the prices causes Tesla to suddenly have razor thin margins. It’s not like the cost of making said vehicles is rising in opposition to the lowering of the prices.

And lastly, Tesla WANTS to sell their cars at the lowest price possible so that as many people as possible can purchase them as a means to the company goal.

Stop it.
More forcefully stated than mine, same msg. The question was "would <ads> allow Tesla to sell those same cars without the need to lower the price?"
Truth is that it's possible and legacy probably would, but bad Tesla move and not necessary for my reasons given as well.

(Edit: Key difference being legacy wants to make more money, but Tesla wants to sell more vehicles.)
 
No.

Pay attention. The prices in China...

... yeah, and when yer done spanking 'em with those facts, bring up the return of the "Referral Program" in China. Another big demand lever, as 100s of thousands of existing customers are harnessed as recruiters to join the club. ;)


Cheers to the Longs!
 
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Starting to "smell" now. More than twice average daily volume already and a break below $200.

It would be great if Elon is selling right now. The movement of the stock (except for the low opening) is in tandem with macros, so it would mean the market is able to absorb the shares without the bottom falling out.
 
China's electric vehicle subsidy program extended to end of 2023 | teslarati.com (Sept 26, 2022)

That article isn't clear about what subsidies are being extended. From what I'm seeing mentioned elsewhere, it's only the sales tax exemption that gets extended. The additional 12,000Yuan subsidy is apparantly still ending this year. This should drive a lot more local China demand for Q4 now that Tesla qualifies for the subsidy.

 
...I would not be surprised to see $200 in the next few weeks with the macro and wallstreet read on the P&D numbers.

I am ready to buy at $200 like there is no tomorrow
I think you're owed lots n lots of 'mea culpas' from those who thought you were being overly dramatic / pessimistic calling $200 three weeks ago.

Well done, @OrthoSurg ! Oh wait... 😥
 
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