Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

FUNDING SECURED

My Jan 23 30 TWTR PUTS (SOLD) have 74% gains ... so seems market is convinced

 

[Xepa777]

Note to self: only read TMC on green days of +2%

 

[Xepa777]

To be fair, Troy’s argument was that they should have cut prices sooner and that’s why they lost the 10k orders.

Honestly who are we to question what/when Tesla decisions are made? They have all the internal demand data, reneg data, regional economic data, consumer psychological/cultural profiles, and so forth. And they’ve been a damn well run company so far, especially in China (which is honestly on a different tier than the rest of global Tesla operations).

That presumptuous mentality from Troy really rubs me the wrong way. On the flipside same goes for Gali saying we shouldn’t do buybacks. Same goes for TMCers with strong absolutist statements over what Tesla should do without acknowledging that they have the most data (and a data driven culture to act on it), even if the end results are sometimes not the optimal ones. You can only work with the data on hand, and Tesla’s data says to do the cuts. And management decided when to do it. And I’m good with that.

Just have trust and keep stacking shares.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

MSFT and GOOG taking down market AH.

 

[Words of HABIT]

The way I see it, starting back in March 2021, Governments pumped in Trillions of emergency COVID relief dollars. Much of these funds made it into the stock markets, pumping up companies' market caps. Fast forward to January 2022 all were winners, LCID @70B before mass producing its first EV, RIVN @ $70B with only one thousand EVs sold, NIO @$ 96B with money losing battery swap models, and the likes of F @ $101B and $GM @ $92B. And yes, those free dollars also went to TSLA @ $1,241B. Now the dust has settled, the free money flow has stopped and interest rates rising to combat rising inflation, we need to separate the winners from the losers. Which company has delivered on their production targets and goals? Only one. Tesla. Which company is expected to continue to deliver on their production and goals? Only one. Tesla. Which company continues to greatly increase the pace of innovation, the cost and product efficiencies in manufacturing, battery materials and assembly, quarter after quarter? Only one. Tesla.

Yet, today we still see "the next Tesla" companies being rewarded, with inferior products, bleeding cash, outsourcing for all their EV needs and resources, outdated business models and mismanagement on a global scale.

Tesla is only now just ramping up to 20M EVs per year by 2030. Each successive quarter will show Tesla continuing to greatly expand its lead. The Cybertruck will crush Ford and GMs gravy train due to its functionality and performance. The Semi will transplant the majority of deisel semis due to its cost efficiency. Model SEXY will continue to outsell beyond expectations. New models will be coveted. Money will flow from the losers to the winners. Just wait.

 

[Todd Burch]

To be fair, Troy’s argument was that they should have cut prices sooner and that’s why they lost the 10k orders.

Troy incorrectly assumes that they slowed down the production lines at the start of Q4. I call bullhockey.

 

[Singuy]

Google taking a dump AH.

MSFT and GOOG taking down market AH.

MSFT beat, not sure if google's poor result is so bad it's dragging it down AH..lol.

 

[thx1139]

GM Dials Back EV Sales Target, Following Upbeat Earnings Report

The auto maker posted a 37% rise in third-quarter profit while warning that battery-production challenges could slow its electric-vehicle rollout.

www.wsj.com

They have s$%t the bed again on their BEV targets.

"GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said Tuesday that a slower-than-expected start to battery-cell operations at a new factory in Ohio will delay some EV sales. GM had expected to sell 400,000 EVs from early 2022 through the end of next year but has pushed out the time frame until mid-2024.

Ms. Barra told Wall Street analysts that it has taken longer than expected to hire and train workers and establish operations with the factory’s joint-venture partner, Korea’s LG Energy Solution. She said GM’s longer-range goal of selling 1 million EVs in North America in 2025 is intact."

They are now planning 400K total in North America through the middle of 2024. And yet they expect to ramp to 1 million units in 2025. Color me skeptical.

"Forward looking" WS should be absolutely HAMMERING GM over this ER.

Instead, WS rewards the SP today with profit margins padded by delayed deliveries from Q2 and sales of overpriced gas guzzling trucks.

As 'Make Mine Nikola' Mary says: "“This is just a slight shift in the acceleration,” she said."

My bet is GM does not hit any of those targets. And I based this on 'past results' being 100% indicative of 'future performance', thank you very much.

Does the 400K include past Volt and Bolt sales or is this new sales in 2022 and 2023?

 

[WattsHappening]

I looked over their slide deck and something jumped out at me. Their deliveries are down BUT their sales revenue is up? Then I noticed the dealer inventory gaining 110,000 vehicles and it made sense.

In other words, GM shifted production to the dealers and counted them as "sold" but all those cars are sitting on dealer lots waiting to sell to actual consumers.
Not quite as impressive a quarter for GM when you dig into the meat of the numbers. That coupled with the delayed forecast on EV's and it really gets foreboding.


Tesla's Q3 report is super positive by comparison.

Yep, good call on inventory and sales channels.

Back in the hey days of pre-internet stock bubbles, I worked for a large tech company which sold hardware through value added resellers (VARs) and distributors. Our revenue recognition policy allowed us to claim revenue when we shipped product to the VARs and distis. If a quarter looked like it was coming in a bit light, we would work with the sales channels to take more inventory.

It worked short term, but was a disaster long term. The sales channel quickly learned to expect this influx of inventory at the end of the quarter, delayed orders and then were able to negotiate favorable terms (lower prices, stock rotation privileges, sell through bonuses, other incentives) to take on end of quarter inventory. So every quarter, we would stuff the channel at less and less favorable terms. We were just hoping sales would reverse and pick up, thereby making the sales channel need us more. In the end, it all came crashing down. Ended up taking a huge write-off, changed revenue recognition policies, and you can imagine the reaction from Wall Street. Blood bath; makes TSLA's 50% drop feel like a cool summer shower.

Since then, I've specifically never invested in a company that recognizes revenue when selling into a sales channel. Too easy for numbers to be engineered.

Not that I'm saying that's what GM is doing. Of course, I would never accuse a stand-up company like GM and a stand-up CEO like Mary Barra of such a thing. (Not sure which emoji works best here )

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Does the 400K include past Volt and Bolt sales or is this new sales in 2022 and 2023?

Past, present and future...i think it also includes the EV1 sales as well.

 

[WattsHappening]

I’m about 2 miles from the factory. We didn’t feel it here at all. It was centered in south San Jose. About 30 miles south of us.

Looks like it's a bit below Fremont, but who knows about the aftershocks...

Ya, it was east of San Jose, south of Fremont.

We're about 10 miles west of the epicenter. We felt it pretty good here. House shook, chandelier swayed. No damage. And no after shocks that I could feel.

I was told someone working in an office in Fremont felt it, but it was minor.

Fremont factory workers are going to have to blame something else for panel gaps.

 

[traxila]

Does the 400K include past Volt and Bolt sales or is this new sales in 2022 and 2023?

GM had expected to sell 400,000 EVs from early 2022 through the end of next year but has pushed out the time frame until mid-2024.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Elon selling in after hours?

 

[Sparky4life]

Looks like it's a bit below Fremont, but who knows about the aftershocks...

I’m 7km from the epicenter. Good shake at my house, but no damage. Wasn’t enough to get me out of my chair. No water leaks detected by my monitor!

 

[Fairchild]

Sell low, buy high…

Good luck to you

Sell and buy lower.
Thanks for the good luck. It worked.

I could have sold the TSLA which I bought in May of 2020, and acquired for a split-adjusted $53.56 a share, but why pay the capital gains? Instead, the 20% I sold (about 500 shares), were recent acquisitions at higher prices and the sale did much to neutralize my $42K cost basis. The money I freed up early in the year gained and invested in SGML gain 247%, while TSLA tanked another 44% (see the chart). It was actually not as much good luck, as it was deliberate, and I still have 80% of my TSLA shares, however, as I said, I am monitoring it and that is why I would like to sell a bit more before it dives again. I have friends who ride a stock to the basement, simply because they are fans. Managing stock is really a blend of news sentiment, reading the charts, freedom from emotion, and balls. It's numbers and educated guessing, which I guess you could call, "sanctioned gambling". That's why I got rid of my stock broker years ago and have prospered since. I am a risk taker and brokers are generally not. Maybe that's why the S&P is at -18% for the year and I am at +36.86%. You've gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.

If TSLA breaks below the $200 level, which could happen when Musk pulls out his $$$$$s to buy Twitter, this week or next, it may be headed south again. If it somehow is able to sustain itself above $200, we will see the next level of support at about $314. Plan accordingly and enjoy the ride, in more ways than one.

 

[Papafox]

After hours weakness on broader index. Megacaps reporting earnings after hours this week.

 

[traxila]

After hours weakness on broader index. Megacaps reporting earnings after hours this week.

GOOG Missed.
SELLSELLSELL

MSFT Beat.
SELLTHENEWS

QQQs all down.

 

[FireMedic]

After hours weakness on broader index. Megacaps reporting earnings after hours this week.

Really wishing I had harvested more dry powder from GOOG holdings; but glad I sold some a few months ago. Looks like it could be a bit more pain to come for GOOG HODLER’s.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585000332400394241

 

[Stretch2727]

Past, present and future...i think it also includes the EV1 sales as well.

I was laughing to myself as Mary boasted on the GM conference call that the Wuling EV was number #1 in China. Acting like GM really had something to do with it and that it makes them the EV leader.

 

[growler23]

Conversation has been pretty scattered of late, so this post might be as well. Methinks the world is pretty scattered right now.
Hoping that @DragonWatch is recuperating and able to continue Forward Observing soon. It is always appreciated from over here.
If a global recession is feared due to the high energy prices / Ukraine war, that explains a lot a scatteredness in the markets and in our minds.
Tough times for the TSLA stock price of late, but some things happened yesterday that make me feel fine (R.E.M. anyone?) going forward:
We had a serious thunderstorm here in Austin last night. I was warned about it by my Tesla app, letting me know my Powerwall was putting itself on StormWatch, since it constantly checks for forecasts for such. The thing is, normally the Powerwall would start discharging as the sun goes down, as I have put it on a strategy (programmed by Tesla) to let me maximize home use of my (overproduced) solar electrons during the day - by normally discharging itself to power the house overnight - but this leaves it too empty to run the house in case of emergency grid outage, with said outages mostly occurring due to storms.
So a couple hours after the app notifies me of the storms in my area, I receive another notification that Saphira (my Y) has stopped charging (the charge circuit is not battery-backed up, for pretty good reason), and immediately after, a notification that the Powerwall (which intelligently charged itself up for this exact contingency) is in "grid outage" mode.
Thence follows several hours where luckless crews attempt, and fail, to restart our neighborhood grid, with lights flickering on and off.
Through all of that, the SO and I are comfortably reading in bed, as the Powerwall-powered circuits (well planned by the house's former owners: thank you!) keep the bedroom fans and lights, as well as the Internets and kitchen, fully functional for our convenience.
At some point after I sleep, the crews succeed and the grid is restored.
I awake to find Saphira has completed her charging, and has preconditioned a nice warm cabin for me, and of course, notified me via the Tesla app.

What an amazing #&@*&#&# company!

HODL