Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

We'll just need to keep 2 sets of numbers....with and without IRA. The without IRA numbers will not be as good as with IRA, but they'll still be industry leading and factually all you need to refute the misperception. Agree it might yet another challenging false narrative for Tesla to battle, but we're used to this, right?

Of course, calculating earnings without IRA is not possible because any subsidies this large distort the normal functioning of the markets. That means there is no way to determine what the numbers would have been without the IRA.

 

[MP3Mike]

Government does not pay Tesla under IRA.

Basically, the US government has decided to reduce future tax payments on these energy initiatives in bulk to lower manufacturing/ consumer cost. Tesla just happens to be a large player in the field. There is some reduction in taxes relative to those previously paid, but Tesla was never the one paying them (Panasonic in GF1 was).

IRA credits are non-refundable
The government does not pay Tesla.
Rather, Tesla does not pay the government
Which is the same as it has always been from a corporate tax point of view (net US loss, only paid state and employment tax)

Further, Tesla US will need to greatly increase net income to even have tax to offset (they still have billions in loss carry forward).

The IRA credits for battery production are refundable from what I can tell, if you use the "Direct Pay" option, the credits are considered tax payments and can be refunded. From: Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 – New Tax Credits for Manufacturers of Clean Energy Equipment | Norton Rose Fulbright

1. Direct Pay Under the Inflation Reduction Act

The Act also includes an option of direct pay. If the taxpayer, taking into account the deemed tax payment for the credits, had “overpaid” its taxes it could elect a cash refund from the IRS. In general, direct pay is available only to entities exempt from tax and to government entities, except for the section 45X credit (as well as the section 45Q (carbon capture) and section 45V (clean hydrogen production credit)), which allows businesses to apply for direct pay. More on direct pay can be found in this article.

What is direct pay?
Direct pay is a legislative proposal whereby tax credits for newly constructed wind, solar and other renewable energy projects as wells as carbon capture tax credits would be treated as a payment of tax. If the taxpayer, taking into account the deemed tax payment for the credits, had “overpaid” its taxes it could elect a cash refund from the IRS.

 

[Nocturnal]

I am ready for a veritable *sugar* ton of Cybertrucks. Like a Cybertruck machine gun shooting them out the factory exit faster than they can load them up and ship them. I’m ready for Tesla to beg customers to come to Texas and pick up their trucks because they can’t get enough train cars to send them.

I’ll make the trip.

BMW has an option to pick up your car in Spartanburg. I did that after my Euro delivery so I got to double dip. They put you up in a nearby Marriott then give you a loaner vehicle to play on the skid pad, let you drive an X-5 up some hills, and even borrow a 6 series to drive down the road to the museum.

Telsa won't need to try that hard, but if they had room for a small off road course I'm sure many owners would love to drive their new truck home with some nice dirt on the tires.

 

[hobbes]

View attachment 868927

Was wrong..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1586502691643359234

 

[wipster]

BMW has an option to pick up your car in Spartanburg. I did that after my Euro delivery so I got to double dip. They put you up in a nearby Marriott then give you a loaner vehicle to play on the skid pad, let you drive an X-5 up some hills, and even borrow a 6 series to drive down the road to the museum.

Telsa won't need to try that hard, but if they had room for a small off road course I'm sure many owners would love to drive their new truck home with some nice dirt on the tires.

While that would be cool, remember Tesla can't deliver any vehicles in Texas... they'd have to send it to a different out of state location. But... no reason that location couldn't have or be at an off road course!

 

[bkp_duke]

While that would be cool, remember Tesla can't deliver any vehicles in Texas... they'd have to send it to a different out of state location. But... no reason that location couldn't have or be at an off road course!

Was thinking about this, and sad to say I don't know even having lived in TX for 10 years, but are there Native Reservations that Tesla could partner with for things like this? They have done something similar I believe in another state (NM?). Would save a lot of transit time, and the state of TX would be completely unable to do a damn thing about it.

 

[wipster]

Was thinking about this, and sad to say I don't know even having lived in TX for 10 years, but are there Native Reservations that Tesla could partner with for things like this? They have done something similar I believe in another state (NM?). Would save a lot of transit time, and the state of TX would be completely unable to do a damn thing about it.

Would love to see that!!!

 

[Thekiwi]

Lex interviews interesting people, but Lex himself doesn't add much value. I wonder if there is a market to edit Lex's videos and simply delete the parts where Lex talks leaving only the good stuff

Just watching the interview now.

OMG i need some sort of AI-based podcast player that can speed up Lex my 2x, and slow down Andrej by half.

 

[bkp_duke]

Would love to see that!!!

Had to look it up.

Apparently there are not many in TX:

Texas Politics - Where in Texas are Indigenous Groups? First, Check the Reservations...

Geographically, they are also not close to most of the population centers (El Paso being an exception). Not sure they would be of much use.

 

[ElectricIAC]

While that would be cool, remember Tesla can't deliver any vehicles in Texas... they'd have to send it to a different out of state location. But... no reason that location couldn't have or be at an off road course!

Wrong. They can deliver vehicles in Texas through service centers but the sale is signed remotely out of California.

You also have to self-register.

 

[wipster]

Wrong. They can deliver vehicles in Texas through service centers but the sale is signed remotely out of California.

You also have to self-register.

Interesting, did not know that!

 

[insaneoctane]

Of course, calculating earnings without IRA is not possible because any subsidies this large distort the normal functioning of the markets. That means there is no way to determine what the numbers would have been without the IRA.

I'm not suggesting that we try to backout any distortion of the market, rather keep track of any subsidies that Tesla directly receives...

 

[insaneoctane]

As we approach 2 months until the US IRA begins potentially discounting EVs, wouldn't we expect to see an increase in demand for the MY and M3 that are expected to effectively receive a $7,500 discount? Or do you think that there is still too much ambiguity around whether or not Tesla's vehicles will qualify? I guess I'm a little surprised that we haven't heard anything about orders getting a little ahead of the Jan 1 go-live....

 

[RobDickinson]

I dont think anyone has a clue which cars attract what discounts yet

 

[Cosmacelf]

As we approach 2 months until the US IRA begins potentially discounting EVs, wouldn't we expect to see an increase in demand for the MY and M3 that are expected to effectively receive a $7,500 discount? Or do you think that there is still too much ambiguity around whether or not Tesla's vehicles will qualify? I guess I'm a little surprised that we haven't heard anything about orders getting a little ahead of the Jan 1 go-live....

Tesla doesn't even know what the impact will be. Everyone is waiting for more Treasury guidance.

 

[JRP3]

Had to look it up.

Apparently there are not many in TX:

Texas Politics - Where in Texas are Indigenous Groups? First, Check the Reservations...

Geographically, they are also not close to most of the population centers (El Paso being an exception). Not sure they would be of much use.

The Alabama-Coushatta reservation looks fairly close to Houston, Dallas and Austin.

 

[MP3Mike]

As we approach 2 months until the US IRA begins potentially discounting EVs, wouldn't we expect to see an increase in demand for the MY and M3 that are expected to effectively receive a $7,500 discount? Or do you think that there is still too much ambiguity around whether or not Tesla's vehicles will qualify? I guess I'm a little surprised that we haven't heard anything about orders getting a little ahead of the Jan 1 go-live....

You can't even order a Model 3 LR right now, and last time you could the price was over the limit to qualify.

 

[kengchang]

Wrong. They can deliver vehicles in Texas through service centers but the sale is signed remotely out of California.

You also have to self-register.

Interestingly to note that a friend in SoCal was delivered with a MY LR built in Austin last week.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Participated in our church's Trunk or Treat event. Drew over 700 children and their parents and was a great success. Received hundreds of compliments on "Lightning McQueen". All positive. Hundreds of "love the car" comments. Not a single negative comment. The FUD that we can't help but hear about coming to TMC is near non existent to the average populous. Our display was the only one where the adults were just as excited as the children to get a picture with "Lightning McQueen".

Most memorable moments:

Watching my kids work the carnival games.

Winning the peoples choice award. Take that cookie monster.

Seven year old in a blue SONIC costume: "I can go faster than that" pointing to Lightning McQueen. Can't argue with that.

Mother of five year old pirate: "What is the name of this car?"
Pirate: "That's Lightning McQueeeeeeen!"
Mother: "No no, what is the make of this car?" pointing to the Tesla logo on the frunk.
Pirate: "Toyoooodaaaaaa!"

I hope everyone has a happy and safe Halloween.

 

[wipster]

The Alabama-Coushatta reservation looks fairly close to Houston, Dallas and Austin.

Really close to Houston...