Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Do you know where they are expecting the cells to come from for the Lathrop megapack factory? Presumably from China? I doubt and of the US battery plants will have any spare capacity with Semi and CT ramping? I guess that means that storage won't benefit from the IRA for a while.

Maybe there will be some spare Ultium cells floating around.

Megapack runs on LFP as do SR Model 3s. Ultium are NCMA (less weight).
LFP are also typically not cylindrical in vehicles.
It's reported CATL recently recieved a 45GWh order from Tesla with more in the works.

 

[Christine69420]

According to a study by PwC Europe will soon become a net importer of cars.

And it's the pesky electric cars who are behind this mess. Basically - Europe is not making enough EVs.

The import from Chinese car makers is growing rapidly and European car makers make more of their cars in China.
And the recent IRA introduction is expected to move car production from Europe to the US. Tesla and battery producer NorthVolt is already adjusting their production plans because of this.

: PwC-Studie: Europa wird 2025 zum Autoimporteur

 

[OrthoSurg]

SP tanked thinking Elon needed to sell shares before 10/28 ... seems he didn't sell shares ( no forms)
market tanks again thinking Elon needs to sell shares (cause TWITr lost advertising $ )

Seems like the Twitter overhand will stay there forever as wallstreet thinks Elon will have to sell 4M worth of TSLA daily because of Twitter daily deficits.

I wonder when this will turn around. The market might associate the 2 companies together until Twitter turns out to be profitable.

Remember the time TSLA was related to BTC?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you know where they are expecting the cells to come from for the Lathrop megapack factory? Presumably from China? I doubt and of the US battery plants will have any spare capacity with Semi and CT ramping? I guess that means that storage won't benefit from the IRA for a while.

We rarely get specifics on supply agreements, but the general view seems to be CATL LFP from China. This will probably be unaffected by the expected Dec 31, 2022 announcement of I.R. Act provisions re bty sourcing (rules seem aimed at auto btys)

Maybe there will be some spare Ultium cells floating around.

Yeah, Imma wait for the Penultium cells... heard those are hot. /s

 

[Spacep0d]

I feel like Elon is trolling everyone on his Twitter account about taking all of these ideas from the community...while his incredible product, design, and engineering teams are quietly fixing everything in the background.

Just as he does with his 'polls'.

We rarely get specifics on supply agreements, but the general view seems to be CATL LFP from China. This will probably be unaffected by the expected Dec 31, 2022 announcement of I.R. Act provisions re bty sourcing (rules seem aimed at auto btys)


Yeah, Imma wait for the Penultium cells... heard those are hot. /s

The Penultium should be out right before the Ultium.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Roth v traditional: Tax brackets now vs then and avoiding the 10% early withdrawal penalty on rolled over funds after 5 years if you pull them out before 59-1/2.
As to timing, with low stock price, less external money is needed to transfer the same # of shares to a Roth.

Two additional and huge factors favoring conversion: 1) growth in Traditional IRA is taxable upon distribution at ordinary income marginal rate, while Roth distributions are non-taxable, and 2) there are no required minimum distributions in the Roth (you just take out what you need). So the gains that could be $400+/share in T-IRA by 2027 could be taxed at 20%-40% vs. 0%. Powerful.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I think Elon is trying to be the living proof that Twitter brings the worst of any human being.

Time to delete my account again.

However I am in front of a dilemma here: Does a TSLA investor needs to follow what the CEO of the company he invests in tweets on the platform that brings out the worse of human beings?

I try to keep up with his business-related Tweets and ignore the slightly unhinged stuff, but it’s hard to separate the two. My text thread of non-Tesla owning college friends (Subaru liberals) went hyperactive and off the deep end criticizing EM yesterday, forcing me to come to his defense. Whining about the right wing taking over, moaning about the layoffs, oblivious to the long-term potential, billionaire conspiracy, etc., jeez.

 

[Favguy]

I just read 30 pages of the Elon/Twitter thread, and it almost destroyed my faith in Elon and his mission.

Then I went and watched his talk with Ron Baron today and it re-affirmed my faith in Elon, that he's not bat-*sugar* crazy, and really does know what he's doing:

The twitter thread should just be closed, it's all same people with the same bullhorns, repeating their manta every 10 posts and refusing to listen to anyone else's opinion. Half of them are pissed that their savior doesn't perfectly align with them (get over it, people are imperfect), and the other half appear to just be perpetually mad.

I've decided to ignore that thread now as well as twitter for the time bieng, as it starts to get me jittery about my TSLA holding and Elon.

 

[Unpilot]

Two additional and huge factors favoring conversion: 1) growth in Traditional IRA is taxable upon distribution at ordinary income marginal rate, while Roth distributions are non-taxable, and 2) there are no required minimum distributions in the Roth (you just take out what you need). So shares that could 2x-4x in T-IRA by 2027 could be taxed at 20%-40% vs. 0%. Powerful.

Yes, this is the main reason why I converted. I will pay a hefty tax on the conversion (no real way around that...even though we can "nibble "at the edges)

However, like most people here I believe that the SP is beaten down pretty far, so a conversion makes sense to me IF we are close to a bottom.

Really, it is all just a game we play with our money.
I did not do the math to see if the tax rate will be 32 to 35 or 37%.

Not that I don't care....but I believe the future gains with TSLA will vastly out weigh any marginal difference. (Plus I'm lazy)

 

[FSDtester#1]

My wife has been watching our brokerage balance go up and down for 30 years (mostly up) and she knows that's how it works.

She's not phased one bit. She knows that making the right choices and remaining steady basically turns the market into a money printing machine over the long haul.

Lucky you!!!!, my wife hates my car and therefore Tesla. So any logic on her part is out the window . Might need a new wife if she doesn't wisen up!

 

[Mengy]

Lucky you!!!!, my wife hates my car and therefore Tesla. So any logic on her part is out the window . Might need a new wife if she doesn't wisen up!

My girlfriend was not a fan of Tesla's or EV's at all.....until I bought my Model Y and she got to ride in it and drive it. Now she wants an EV too and she's completely turned around on the subject. Seems like many naysayers follow this trajectory...

 

[OrthoSurg]

Lucky you!!!!, my wife hates my car and therefore Tesla. So any logic on her part is out the window . Might need a new wife if she doesn't wisen up!

My wife just had an anti-Elon rant after she read what he posted on Twitter. Then I put the Ron Baron interview on the TV and she said it’s the best investment of a lifetime.

There really is 2 different personalities of Elon. The well thought extremely developed thoughts in person during interviews and then the quick snappy commenter or on every subject on Twitter without moderation.

I think most of the regular folks do not follow the Twitter saga but for the ones following it it’s becoming a downward spiral of doom.

 

[unk45]

To anyone feeling sad or depressive, here is the cure:
Step 1) listen to this interview

Step 2) Go to sleep
Step 3) Buy more TSLA Monday

Not advice

When I read your first post just above, I thought I’d link the Baron interview. Without Ron Baron’s example I might have yielded to emotional swings a few times. I pride myself on being impervious to FUD, but ‘it just ain’t true’.

Rationally most of us know that such talent and determination as that of Elon Musk carries with it some abnormal traits. Some becoming, others not so.

Anyway I recall facing serious negativism when I described Elon’s long term Twitter strategy. He repeated it in the Baron interview. As always, though, he gives no details nor offers links to contemporary X.com documents. Those, alas, seem to have been restricted distribution back then, replete with copy numbers, NDA’s, etc. That strategy is not completely secret, but sounds insane without context. Frankly I think he’s wise to limit details.

Be of good cheer, @OrthoSurg , all will work out Well.

 

[juanmedina]

I try to keep up with his business-related Tweets and ignore the slightly unhinged stuff, but it’s hard to separate the two. My text thread of non-Tesla owning college friends (Subaru liberals) went hyperactive and off the deep end criticizing EM yesterday, forcing me to come to his defense. Whining about the right wing taking over, moaning about the layoffs, oblivious to the long-term potential, billionaire conspiracy, etc., jeez.

It a sad state of affairs. Elon really screwed up here and he keeps screwing up everyday with some of his tweets. I don't understand why he cannot see that he needs to stay off Twitter right now until things come down. The layoff thing is hilarious, Ford just layoff 3000 employees and no one even cared. Layoffs are happening everywhere right now.

I am trying to stay off Twitter right now because it is a horrible place to be. Also, some Tesla investors are turning the back on him fueled by the decline of the stock. He is not a saint and but he is no Ye either for some the advertisers to start pulling out of Twitter.

 

[Krugerrand]

I saw this tweet up-thread, but no one mentioned his tone. I considered it to be an unusual tone from Elon. He seemed surprised, disappointed and uncertain. This tone isn't typical Elon. Anyone else have similar read?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1588538640401018880

I read it as hurt. Regardless, as you point out, it is a reflection we don’t see too often in public, though, I imagine he feels it a lot in private.

If a day arrives that Elon has just simply had enough, those people that piled on and pushed him to that limit need to be the first to suffer the consequences. And for those here and about who think because Elon doesn’t know what they’ve said about him that that means they get off scott free, they are mistaken.

 

[MABMAB]

Ron Baron interview
"We" when talking about twitter, he has to be in on the investment.
Baron, or someone in his firm (a son) needs to be on TSLA BOD.

 

[Krugerrand]

(Plus I'm lazy)

So, I’ll have to invade myself, myself? That could be interesting . Probably the best chance you have of defeating me.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Seems like the Twitter overhand will stay there forever as wallstreet thinks Elon will have to sell 4M worth of TSLA daily because of Twitter daily deficits.

I wonder when this will turn around. The market might associate the 2 companies together until Twitter turns out to be profitable.

Remember the time TSLA was related to BTC?

He sure isn’t going to be selling daily. Even if he needs 4M a day - it won’t be that much for several reasons - he’ll sell once or twice a year and the combined value of those sales will be less than 10% of what he sold to pay taxes and less than 10% of what he sold to fund the Twitter acquisition.

 

[30seconds]

I read it as hurt. Regardless, as you point out, it is a reflection we don’t see too often in public, though, I imagine he feels it a lot in private.

If a day arrives that Elon has just simply had enough, those people that piled on and pushed him to that limit need to be the first to suffer the consequences. And for those here and about who think because Elon doesn’t know what they’ve said about him that that means they get off scott free, they are mistaken.

People aren’t responsible for the crap Elon occasionally puts out on Twitter. Elon is.

Even if he used his platform to only educate about climate change, renewables, benefits of EVs, solar, and space travel there would be plenty of people attacking him. May not be the same people but it would be there.

He’s decided to be a highly public figure on Twitter.

 

[traxila]

To anyone feeling sad or depressive, here is the cure:
Step 1) listen to this interview

Step 2) Go to sleep
Step 3) Buy more TSLA Monday

Not advice

Thank you @OrthoSurg for posting this.

Elon looks absolutely fine. He did not appear stressed or depressed.

He said nothing wrong. He repeated comments he made in the past that applied at that time.

I have no idea why any shareholder would have issues with this interview outside of the fact that the SP went down for whatever random reason the algos and hedgies seized upon and the shareholder decided that EM must be to blame. In that case, keep the blame flowing, because the SP will not stop yoyoing any time in the next few years.