Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

I would be pissed as well. Also, his most recent political comment about divided government is true. Nevertheless, I wish he would focus on "more important" matters, specifically with Tesla. He is who he is and I do not expect that he will reign it in and investors will have to make decisions accordingly.

So would I.

But I would never take that as a reason to support climate-change denying homophobes.
And at least on those two issues Elon has been outspoken in the past.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

legacy is doomed...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589985211768791041

 

[StealthP3D]

(I think SpaceX is very different btw, because Tesla and SpaceX clearly get help from each other -- there is no evidence that anything done at Twitter will help Tesla's engineering efforts).

All of Elon's companies have a certain amount of synergy between them. Telsa doesn't spend billions on advertising every year, and we don't have to wonder which media outlets are important to their standing. So, it's very short-sighted to say, "there is no evidence that anything done at Twitter will help Tesla's engineering efforts" because engineering is not the only function of Tesla. The best engineering in the world does Tesla no favors if only a few engineers know about it.

 

[StealthP3D]

Any irony here in the fact that if any member posted what Elon tweeted the other day it would get banned?

Prove it!

 

[ElectricIAC]

I don't know how the macros won't drive down further, we've never had a market bottom while in the process of raising rates and we probably haven't even started seeing the many lagged impacts from the rate hikes.

Interest rates are going up further, not sure to what point but they're not done yet, and then the Fed will pause and wait for the lagging data to roll in and ensure inflation is actually defeated and the labour market has loosened up thus reducing the risk of a wage-price spiral.

Double digit prime by spring

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA went from $25.16 to $11.80 (46.9% of the high) between December 2018 and June 2019. Many here sat through that and it didn't feel good. But look what happened later.

TSLA is currently at $193.32 which is 46.6% of the $414.50 ATH. So just a hair under the previous drop. We have been through this and came out the other side just fine, in fact BETTER.

As each quarterly result comes out and the Cybertruck/Semi come to fruition, TSLA will be a lot higher than it is today. (not even mentioning Robo-taxi, Robo-man or FSD. Oh dang I guess I just mentioned them)

 

[wipster]

Wow, thanks for sharing! Great example of the learning capabilities of AI.

OT kinda, but wouldn't it be cool to see Optimus learn how to play table tennis? Wonder how many updates it would take for it to play at Forrest Gump levels? That's something I believe only Optimus could do, as opposed to BD, since it's actions are AI governed, not programmed in.

 

[Gigapress]

It's a nice list mabmab but they need to do 6 before touching 7. The problem now is that many other car companies will have or already do have what Tesla offers with FSD.

Companies such as?

They need to shut up and put up and be honest, it is going to take hardware revisions. It is going to take some sensor enhancements. It's going to take 4 more years or X many years. I like the idea of solving problems that the beta users have identified in a clearly defined manner, that would help.

What do you think is the root of the difference between your opinion on this and the opinion of the professional AI engineers with vastly deeper subject matter expertise than a farmer in Virginia? They have been working nonstop 80-100 hour weeks on this problem and they have access to all the relevant data and testing tools. You might know something they don’t, but if so then I’m very curious to learn how that happened.

9- so true but then it all comes back to batteries. It's been about batteries from day 1 and it is still about batteries. Tesla made a major bet on the 4680 and that, not FSD, is what must get fixed first.

It does all come back to batteries, and your ridiculous complaining about them.

Tesla is buying up all the battery supply they can from suppliers. Half their cars now have LFP batteries. Being able to use LFP for Model 3 and Y RWD opened up a lot of new battery supply and pushed back the need for 4680s.

The original battery day goal was 100 GWh in 2022. They're behind on that, but it was just a goal. It looks like 2023 will be when Tesla hits that run rate. The ramp has momentum according to what Tesla said on the Q3 earnings call:

On the production ramp, Giga Berlin achieved another milestone of 2,000 cars made in a week with very good quality and is ramping rapidly. Giga Austin or Giga Texas should reach this milestone very soon. And in fact, just yesterday, we extrapolated yesterday's hold rate, it would be 2,000. Our production of 4680 cells has tripled in Q3 compared to the previous quarter.

We are finally gaining rapid traction on the 4680 cell. And its output is growing rapidly, and we expect it to start incorporating in cars and having it be a significant portion of our production here in Texas in the coming months. We also have our second generation of manufacturing equipment for 4680 cells in Texas, which continues to show great progress along with our original pilot line in Fremont.

Tesla also is now shifting their focus "100% ramp to cost", which implies that 4680 cell production volume is not on the critical path right now for the mission.

On the Q2 call, Drew Baglino said that Tesla was projecting to reach 1k cars worth of batteries per week on 4680s by some point in Q4, and Tesla reaffirmed this on the Q3 call. At the same time, Tesla has been guiding for 5k cars per week as most likely for Giga Texas by the end of 2022. This means Tesla has been planning to make roughly 80% of their Ys in Texas without 4680s, so clearly they have ample supply from other companies.

Martin Viecha

Thank you. The next question is, what is the progress of the 4680 cell ramp? And what factors determine whether vehicles get 2170s versus 4680 cells? And how will that change in the next year?

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, ramp is going well, as Elon said. Total output is up 3x quarter over quarter, and production is tracking to exceed 1,000 car cells per week this quarter as we said last quarter. Our focus is now shifting from 100% ramp to cost and further expanding production capacity in North America, as Elon also mentioned. On the 2170 versus 4680, in our factories, we really attempt to minimize factory complexity and product changeover while still making sure we get enough new product into the field to learn how it is performing.

And that sort of mix is going to shift as 4680 scales here and the overall factory ramp proceeds in Texas.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Right. Basically, production of 4680 ramp is growing exponentially. And yeah, it's going well. We're just looking at this -- just going to be a major back to the future.

This aged poorly from June:

It is so blindingly obvious that the ramp is fubar. They did not keep eye on the battery ball and that was the biggie. EM has had attention every which way when batteries are at the core of the mission and they had not solved batteries. Having a battery line made in China and importing it to retrofit into your brand new state of the art factory is clearly a sign that the ramp is much much slower than needed and...that it wont' get better soon. Period. That's what it means

10- most importantly the board of Tesla needs to start doing their job. Most of this, 1,2, 3, 6, 8, 9 are things the board should have been all over. They've added nothing.

Have you read their meeting minutes or done any other homework to reach the conclusion that our board is useless and adds nothing?

More importantly, is that stuff the board’s job in the first place? I can’t find any of that indicated anywhere in the Corporate Governance Guidelines or the Tesla bylaws, but the bylaws do say this about the CEO:

The chief executive officer shall have, subject to the supervision, direction and control of the board of directors, ultimate authority for decisions relating to the supervision, direction and management of the affairs and the business of the corporation customarily and usually associated with the position of chief executive officer…

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/J3NIZT_Corporate_Governance_Guidelines__website_KMDF6F.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22Corporate%2BGovernance%2BGuidelines%2B%28website%29.pdf%22

Amended and Restated Bylaws of Tesla Motors, Inc.

And where is the stock price?

What difference does it make to you? Are you invested now?

I don't have stock or any personal financial position. I do want to buy a CT, desperately need one so I need to see 4680.

Elon also said on the Q3 call 4680s won't slow down Cybertruck production, so good news for you.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tesla is a corporation. It does not have an operating agreement.

It's certificate of incorporation was most recently updated by the proxy statement soliciting the vote for the split (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459022024064/tsla-def14a_20220804.htm). You can read it in full there.

While you are right that some Delaware corporations can create special statements of purpose and include them in their Certificate, Tesla has not, so the default rules apply.

That means that the CEO's (and the Board's) primary fiduciary duty is to the shareholders (it's more complicated than that but that's the subject of a whole lot of corporate law).

The obvious fiduciary duty that is implicated is the duty of loyalty (i.e., the CEO is supposed to be dedicate his time to the corporation). The board long ago addressed that (and probably continues to do so with each new outside project) given his multiple business interests.

However, if the media reports of Tesla engineers working at Twitter are accurate, then there is also a corporate waste problem (again, this is more nuanced, but it's easier to characterize this way). Quite literally, Tesla's assets (those engineers) are being wasted on an endeavor that only serves the business purposes of one director and shareholder of Tesla.

At the very least, Twitter needs to be paying Tesla for the use of those engineers (in the same way Tesla likely needs to pay SpaceX when they get help there). Not big dollars presumably, but still an issue.

But, given the problem of hiring quality software engineers at Tesla and its all-out focus on a huge backlog of software tasks, I'm not even sure money can compensate Tesla.

At the very least, the independent members of the board need to be discussing this and confronting Elon on this point. At worst, a plaintiffs' firm is going to consider a derivative class action on this very issue.

(I think SpaceX is very different btw, because Tesla and SpaceX clearly get help from each other -- there is no evidence that anything done at Twitter will help Tesla's engineering efforts).

Agree with some parts. But it's a give and take even with Twitter (not the place to debate that part).
There is precedence with SpaceX Engineering exchanges - nobody complained then. So then it boils down to the definition of help? Good luck there, just a smear tactic in my view.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

… we've never had a market bottom while in the process of raising rates and we probably haven't even started seeing the many lagged impacts from the rate hikes.

Please stop making this claim. It’s false. What’s worse, it was refuted a few weeks ago.

 

[jerry33]

What money have you put into Tesla? Did you buy a bunch of their bonds? (Buying stock, unless at IPO, doesn't put any money in to the company...)

Not directly, but it bought an X in my case, and Q1 it's going to buy a Y.

 

[Gigapress]

Please take advantage of the special threads for Twitter and politics.

 

[AndrewZ]

Please stop making this claim. It’s false. What’s worse, it was refuted a few weeks ago.

I refuted that refutation shortly thereafter and a couple of us discussed it pretty extensively, don't recall seeing you respond with a follow-up

But I have no idea where the author of that article is getting their numbers from, Singuy linked this overlay of the S&P and Fed Funds rate

US - Federal Funds Rate vs. S&P 500 | US Market | Collection | MacroMicro

The chart shows that when the Fed enters a rate-rising cycle, the economy grows faster and the stock market can yield higher returns than the bond market.

en.macromicro.me

If history is any indicator, the market doesn't actually bottom until the Fed is done cutting rates

 

[Krugerrand]

More importantly, what matters is whether someone changes the mind when new evidence comes in. In this case I don’t see any new evidence that came in - so, no reason to change.

You just admitted YOU haven’t seen new evidence. That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been new evidence. Or do you believe you know all there is to know in this regard?

 

[dhanson865]

legacy is doomed...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589985211768791041

bad title, they sold ~7x as many cars and had ~8x less profit per car but they did NOT have 8x less profit.

Toyota had ~7/8ths as much profit as Tesla in Q3.

 

[Southpasfan]

What's kind of amazing at the moment is that this appears to be sort of the most extreme example yet of the weird anti-Tesla view driving down stock price.

I mean, when I see it was previously driven down as the Model 3 came to market, you have to wonder about rational actors.

My Model 3 has the FSD Beta. In some other situation, just based on how amazing the beta is the stock price would be through the roof, FSD is a software solution with crazy inexpensive hardware.

Every time I turn it on, I think, "this is incredible, they are going to solve it" and then you realize the public perception is the equivalent of "yeah, well, we landed a man on the moon but haven't made it outside the galaxy yet so clearly NASA is a fraud."

Elon is doing his best at the moment to be controversial, but even so the fundamental product Tesla is just astonishing.

 

[Singuy]

I refuted that refutation shortly thereafter and a couple of us discussed it pretty extensively, don't recall seeing you respond with a follow-up

But I have no idea where the author of that article is getting their numbers from, Singuy linked this overlay of the S&P and Fed Funds rate

US - Federal Funds Rate vs. S&P 500 | US Market | Collection | MacroMicro

The chart shows that when the Fed enters a rate-rising cycle, the economy grows faster and the stock market can yield higher returns than the bond market.

en.macromicro.me

If history is any indicator, the market doesn't actually bottom until the Fed is done cutting rates

Well the market usually doesn't fall as they are rising rates either according to that overlay

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 15:04 EST:

Gene Munster Says Apple, Tesla Are Standouts Among Mega-Cap Tech

 

[Captkerosene]

I haven't been on this board as much in the last 6 months or so. I'm surprised to see so much negative Elon comments ... he lost me during the pandemic with his behavior but when I would post anything negative I would get tons of dislikes here. It seems as though the narrative has changed and even many on this board have had enough of Elon. I know I have.

gtrplyr1,

Thank you for contributing to the board. Your opinions are appreciated.

Elon was right (and you were wrong) about the pandemic. We spent 10 Trillion and ended up doing more damage than good.

The same will end up being true about the importance of free speech and having a trusted, independent media source. The survival of our species - and possibly ryan27's marriage - depends on it.

ck

 

[MikeAtkinson]

FWIW, I follow Elon closely on Twitter and bird and politics are all he talks about anymore.

Fingers crossed that it improves after this stupid election.

In the last 30 hours Elon has tweeted about things other than Twitter/politics 4 times. He has also liked 8 tweets that mention neither, and another couple that mention Twitter but also SpaceX or Tesla. This is about his daily average.

The difference is that he has made many tweets and likes about Twitter and or politics, far more than before he bought Twitter..