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Too much focus on deliveries here IMO. (47%... >50%... 80K China, no wait 88K). Fear is possibly getting to some members.
Personally, I was pretty pleased to learn that Elon was the one selling (and the sky wasn't falling). It explains the selloff vs some mass flight to safety.
Don't chase the wind, let it come to you and make damn sure all your sails are up when it does!
So let me get this straight: Meta fires 11,000 people and their stock goes up over 7%, while Elon sells some shares and China sets a new production record and TSLA is down more than 1%... this is bizzaro world boys and girls...
All Rob has been concerned with in the past is production numbers. He has beat the drum that this is the only number he is concerned about. That is why I took notice at his concern. He has said (in the past) that all the cars are sold anyway. This is why I took notice. I get it that you guys are not concerned.
I appreciate the "canary in the coalmine" concern on lowered margins amid a rapidly weakening domestic market, but margins have to be pretty insane no matter given the full factory utilization.
What hasn't changed with all the recent Twitter distractions...
• People want EVs
• Tesla makes the best EVs
• Tesla has, by far, the best charging infrastructure
• Tesla's energy business is growing like crazy and demand is insatiable for foreseeable future
• Semi shipping
• Cybertruck coming soon
So let me get this straight: Meta fires 11,000 people and their stock goes up over 7%, while Elon sells some shares and China sets a new production record and TSLA is down more than 1%... this is bizzaro world boys and girls...
Also buys twitter, a social media platform dominated by bots, and bails them out as they lose money on a regular basis, and gets excoriated for controlling costs by firing employees.
TSLA always trades in opposite world. Production is up, margins are up, new factories are spooling with increasing run rate of production d/t expertise in manufacturing. The 'miss' from last quarter was because there were not enough trains, trucks, and ships to get the product a car (not a phone, not an app, not a pos (piece of software)) to the customer who has committed to or has all ready made full payment.
More residential solar adoption in middle- and lower-income states like Texas and Florida has helped close the national income gap, according to the report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
What hasn't changed with all the recent Twitter distractions...
• People want EVs
• Tesla makes the best EVs
• Tesla has, by far, the best charging infrastructure
• Tesla's energy business is growing like crazy and demand is insatiable for foreseeable future
• Semi shipping
• Cybertruck coming soon
Interest rates on consumer loans (cars) are going up.
Consumers are delaying purchasing big ticket items like cars and houses.
The US midterm elections resolved nothing.
The war in Ukraine continues.
Al these items weigh heavily on Tesla. If they resolve, the SP will be under less pressure. But these factors will also affect the entire stock market.
What hasn't changed with all the recent Twitter distractions...
• People want EVs
• Tesla makes the best EVs
• Tesla has, by far, the best charging infrastructure
• Tesla's energy business is growing like crazy and demand is insatiable for foreseeable future
• Semi shipping
• Cybertruck coming soon
All good. But I still find it weird that Tesla wants to open the superchargers to other brands (talking about North America) Just seems like many we talk to who are buying a tesla are buying it because of the superior charging network. Why give up that moat).
Interest rates on consumer loans (cars) are going up.
Consumers are delaying purchasing big ticket items like cars and houses.
The US midterm elections resolved nothing.
The war in Ukraine continues.
Al these items weigh heavily on Tesla. If they resolve, the SP will be under less pressure. But these factors will also affect the entire stock market.
So let me get this straight: Meta fires 11,000 people and their stock goes up over 7%, while Elon sells some shares and China sets a new production record and TSLA is down more than 1%... this is bizzaro world boys and girls...
All good. But I still find it weird that Tesla wants to open the superchargers to other brands (talking about North America) Just seems like many we talk to who are buying a tesla are buying it because of the superior charging network. Why give up that moat).
By opening the superchargers to other brands they unlocked a bunch of government money that can be used to expand the network even more. It can also end up being a lucrative source of revenue.
Interest rates on consumer loans (cars) are going up.
Consumers are delaying purchasing big ticket items like cars and houses.
The US midterm elections resolved nothing.
The war in Ukraine continues.
Al these items weigh heavily on Tesla. If they resolve, the SP will be under less pressure. But these factors will also affect the entire stock market.
By opening the superchargers to other brands they unlocked a bunch of government money that can be used to expand the network even more. It can also end up being a lucrative source of revenue.
Ah ok. That’s obviously an American program. I wonder if they will open it Canada as there is no financial incentive to do it? Or at least not that I know of.
Hmmm.
By opening the superchargers to other brands they unlocked a bunch of government money that can be used to expand the network even more. It can also end up being a lucrative source of revenue.
By opening the superchargers to other brands they unlocked a bunch of government money that can be used to expand the network even more. It can also end up being a lucrative source of revenue.
You must be wrong to assume Elon dumping shares has any effect on the stock price.
If you look back in this thread, you will find several posts by @Gigapressproving with statistical analysis that Elon selling has no correlation with the SP dropping.
Come on guys, you have to believe the data! It is all macros...
This strawman oversimplification totally mischaracterizes what was shown in prior posts, and the latest data points align cleanly with the historical data.
TSLA daily price moves tend to follow the S&P 500 if and only if the S&P500 moves more than about 1.5%.
On about 90% of trading days, TSLA and S&P appear completely disconnected
S&P moves in the last three trading days:
+0.1%, +0.7%, +0.3%
Elon sales have a small, weak correlation with single-day stock price declines after compensating for point #1, but zero statistically significant correlation with TSLA prices a week or two after each sale, indicating absence of any lasting, substantial effect
So, historically Elon's sales are associated with an expected average TSLA decline of about 2.3% give or take 2 or 3 percentage points. We don't even have high confidence that the true average effect is less than zero, because 0 is on the edge of the margin of error. TSLA actually gained on 5 of the 20 [correction: 21] days in which Elon has sold.
It does look likely that when Elon sells more than ~5% of the total TSLA trading volume in a day, there does tend to be TSLA underperformance of about 7%, but the effect appears transitory because in all cases, TSLA reached the same price level again at some point within the subsequent week or two. As a matter of fact, when looking at all of Elon's sales, the potential downward bias appears to be transitory. The data shows no evidence of consistent residual impact on the TSLA price a week after the sale, and on average TSLA has gone 0.9% higher after 5 trading days have elapsed.
I showed a few weeks ago that TSLA has no daily correlation with the S&P or NASDAQ on normal days, but TSLA tends to amplify macro movement on big days like today where the market moves 1.5% or more. (Unfortunately, even though the data is undeniable, this has not stopped the incessant daily commentary about relative performance on the 95% of normal days where the S&P moves less than 1.5%. Humans really love to find meaning in random number sequences.)
The drops of the last three trading days need to be looked at in context. Since this time two months ago (9/9/22), TSLA daily open-to-open price changes:
Average price change: -0.9%
Standard Deviation (sigma): 3.9%
As the chart illustrates, TSLA has had a wild, mostly downhill ride in the last two months. The price action on the days of Elon's recent sales is not very unusual. Of the last three trading days in which Elon was selling, the worst day for TSLA was Mon Nov 7th when the price fell 7.0%. That sounds big but it was only a 1.6-sigma deviation from the average.
Using just this smaller data set, we can't even claim confidently that his selling increases the likelihood of a big down day (say, TSLA down at least 4.20%).
Using the full data set of all 24 days Elon has sold, we can see that the big down days that we had on Friday and Monday align with the other times when Elon selling 5%+ of the trading volume was associated with a ~7% average TSLA decline.
Here is the chart updated, with the latest three data points for Elon selling shown in red and the other 21 historical data points in blue. This new data just adds confidence to the original conclusions, although it's too early yet to know whether TSLA will have recovered a week or two later like in all previous instances. We'll know soon.
Note that the vertical axis is showing TSLA's % change after making an adjustment for TSLA's beta on the few days that the S&P 500 moved at least +/- 1.5%. This adjustment moderately affected 3 of the 24 data points.
All good. But I still find it weird that Tesla wants to open the superchargers to other brands (talking about North America) Just seems like many we talk to who are buying a tesla are buying it because of the superior charging network. Why give up that moat).
More importantly do I want to wait endlessly for slow charging EVs sitting in a stall. Already and issue with people that try to charge their Tesla to 95%
All good. But I still find it weird that Tesla wants to open the superchargers to other brands (talking about North America) Just seems like many we talk to who are buying a tesla are buying it because of the superior charging network. Why give up that moat).
I think it's a marketing tool plus a way to advance the mission of widespread BEV adoption which has to include more than Tesla. I can't help but think when people driving other brands start using the SC network and talking to very satisfied Tesla owners, who might even take them for a ride and demonstrate FSD, they will be buying a Tesla as their next BEV.
The more reliant other EVs become on the Tesla Supercharger network, the more likely that's what will become the EV charging standard for road trips, nationwide, as well as worldwide. To me that's a pretty big incentive to welcome others in. Eventually, by default, Tesla rules the road.
I only read of these.
