Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

First in, last out.

He's losing reputation and trust. It shows in the sentiment (even here) and SP.

So your claim is that the largest individual stock holder in TSLA (by a factor of wot, 10x?) is now "out"? Haha, you've only outed urself.

When Elon executes his 1st of 12 earned tranches on his 2018 CEO comp plan and buys more TSLA than he sold in the past 3 days, will you lose your reputation?

/S

People do not even know which lots of his shares Elon sold. He literally could still hold his 1st share ever bought. The rest is trading. That's how some people live without taking an income.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That number does not change the China retail sales.

Yes, but production is key and we should not go down the rabbit hole of this discussion as we saw what happened earlier this week

 

[Congo Line]

That number does not change the China retail sales.

It's unclear to me how to interpret the seeming disconnect between P&D and China sales numbers and recent price cuts / incentives. You would think that Tesla management wouldn't keep boosting Shanghai production capacity if they thought that they couldn't sell all the cars produced. Perhaps the European market is so strong that they feel that even if China demand weakens further, there is always plenty of demand elsewhere to soak up the extra.

 

[Congo Line]

That's the shortest MMD I've ever seen!

Yup, you jinxed it.

 

[wipster]

It's unclear to me how to interpret the seeming disconnect between P&D and China sales numbers and recent price cuts / incentives. You would think that Tesla management wouldn't keep boosting Shanghai production capacity if they thought that they couldn't sell all the cars produced. Perhaps the European market is so strong that they feel that even if China demand weakens further, there is always plenty of demand elsewhere to soak up the extra.

Geez, it's just a delay in registrations for ~5 days worth of sales... the cars are sold already.

 

[Knightshade]

Any time the media trumpet "Tesla growth rate falls below Elon's promised 50%" we should remind them it probably wasn't a promise and more importantly, EM talked about an average growth rate of 50%. So far since his original guidance, Tesla has exceeded 50%. But it's perfectly OK to grow at 47% and still comply with EM's guidance.

We debunked this a couple weeks ago.

Tesla explicitly guided for >50% this year specifically in early year earnings calls.

So 47% this year is a miss of Teslas explicit guideance for this year

They have adjusted that guidance as the year has unfolded of course- initially from "still likely" to "still possible" to "possible on production but not deliveries"

You can search back and find all the exact quoted from Elon/Zach/etc on this.

 

[The Accountant]

Posting my tweet instead of retyping it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590360924996501505

 

[elasalle]

I added some March 320 for around 2.20 each .... (proceeds from MSTR PUTS I sold ) ..still OPM trade unless MSTR get's assigned

Waiting on Santa to drive the Semi ...

 

[mongo]

That number does not change the China retail sales.

If they had a demand problem they would reduce production.

Exports + sales + waiting to export + in country transit = production (i think, hard to find CPCA criteria)
Previously, start of quarter would take the short trip to a RORO and get counted as export. October was highest export month ever.

July 21 : 8,621 China 24,347 for export
Oct 21: 13,725 China 40,666 export
Jan 22: 19,346 China 40,499 export
July 22: upgrades
Oct 22: 17,200 China 54,504 export
nice graph: Tesla sells 71,704 China-made vehicles in October 2022

 

[Rarity]

That number does not change the China retail sales.

But it does add context on any small incentives offered domestically. GF Shanghai is turning the dial up to 11.

 

[wipster]

Double dipper effect.

Triple dipper even!

 

[MABMAB]

But first, please tell Gary he’ll have to endure your ridiculous run rate nonsense.

I've never seen Gary use that figure in his analysis of the company. I expect he would lean my way on that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Reuters have just reported Tesla China October Production as 87,706 vehicles. Of course the headline is talking about Shanghai's inventory at it's highest rate ever, raising demand fears. I expect a lot of this production is at the docks or in transit and not counted in the 71,704 CPCA wholesale numbers.

If Tesla worked only 1 shift during the "National Holiday" (1st week of Oct), then that's 22,325 per week production at Giga Shanghai. Ironic since Roto-Reuters reported 22K/week capacity, 20.5K planned for Q4.

Tesla Shanghai adds to inventory at highest rate ever in October - brokerage data | Reuters | Nov 9, 2022​

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Exclusive: Tesla to keep output at upgraded Shanghai plant below maximum -sources | Sep 29, 2022​

 

[EverettRuess]

But it does add context on any small incentives offered domestically. GF Shanghai is turning the dial up to 11.

All Rob has been concerned with in the past is production numbers. He has beat the drum that this is the only number he is concerned about. That is why I took notice at his concern. He has said (in the past) that all the cars are sold anyway. This is why I took notice. I get it that you guys are not concerned.

 

[Discoducky]

Feeling dumb - what is the connection to Tesla here? Is it only that rates are going up makes having debt unfavorable?

Yep, this is a reason to not hold onto debt when rates are going up and will most likely stay up when restructuring needs arise. Tesla didn't want to be in that position as they might not get as favorable of rate due, in part, to the whole Moody's thing. Ford is going to be up *sugar* creek if the used car market craters, their ICE business continues to dwindle and rates stay high (thus chopping off Ford Finance at the knees)

 

[Discoducky]

Looks like non-US car makers are pushing hard to get in on the IRA money

U.S. EV incentives could be vastly expanded via new Senate Bill

A bill recently proposed to the Senate could make substantial changes to the Inflation Reduction Act's EV incentives structure.

www.teslarati.com

 

[wipster]

So let me get this straight: Meta fires 11,000 people and their stock goes up over 7%, while Elon sells some shares and China sets a new production record and TSLA is down more than 1%... this is bizzaro world boys and girls...

 

[Krugerrand]

Yup. But its the latter. The Banksters call themselves 'smart' to deflect investigation of their insider trading. Somebody's tapping the borker's trading book, and using the insider info to buy puts. $EC do ur job.

You also know there’s phone calls and texts and let’s meet at the water cooler conversations. No way the people who know Elon’s plans are keeping it to themselves.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Triple dipper even!

I only read of these.

Too much focus on deliveries here IMO. (47%... >50%... 80K China, no wait 88K). Fear is possibly getting to some members.
Personally, I was pretty pleased to learn that Elon was the one selling (and the sky wasn't falling). It explains the selloff vs some mass flight to safety.

Don't chase the wind, let it come to you and make damn sure all your sails are up when it does!

 

[Singuy]

Elon drives the tightest ship in the world. Excess waste and inventory gives him an allergic reaction. Only worry about demand if Tesla stops expanding production, the rest is just noise.