Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lakefiller]

If only I had known this back in 2018 so I could have sold my shares at that time!


200 at this price out of your 2600 share stack should be okay down to a very low share price. The problem is that every time this works, it gets easier and easier to overdo it.
At the worst possible time, you will go too deep into margin and get chewed up by the market.

Elons leadership style was great for Tesla up until shortly after the model Y released. You are projecting.

I am talking about scaling Tesla to be a 5+ million car company with plants all over the world and stores in every city. His brand will be a PR nightmare and his lack of fixing long standing problems such as service and QA will never get us there. These are things that matter much less in the early days. They will now.

 

[OrthoSurg]

i'm sure @OrthoSurg and others who work >>24h can also attest to, I'm thankful for AP / FSD replacing parts of my brain rotted away from on call that long in a row .

I am lucky enough not to fall too often asleep on the wheel after 24h calls however my wife doesn’t understand how we drove 27h straight from Montreal to Florida with 3 gaz thanks refuel in our 1999 manual Toyota Tercel driving overnight right after pulling an all-nighter doing 2 kidneys transplants while on call as PGY1 during general surgery rotation.

She said she would never let our kids do that without FSD in a Tesla, the right of falling asleep is too high and mortality rate is way lower with FSD. Life is worth was more than 20k

 

[wipster]

You can see me and @wipster Again... enjoy our content!

Heck, i didn't even know I was ignored!

 

[FSDtester#1]

Heck, i didn't even know I was ignored!

Really, I asked the mods to query the Tmc database, and they said you made #1 of the most ignored users on the platform... strange you didn't know that!! /s


Edit: unfortunately I was #2... thanks mods for letting me know
Could of made me cry after the holidays

 

[betstarship]

Happy Thanksgiving all, Im thankful that there's now over $1T in funding in electric vehicles allotted to make a worldwide transition possible.

Exclusive: Automakers to double spending on EVs, batteries to $1.2 trillion by 2030

The world's top automakers are planning to spend nearly $1.2 trillion through 2030 to develop and produce millions of electric vehicles, along with the batteries and raw materials to support that production, according to a Reuters analysis of public data and projections released by those companies.

www.reuters.com

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't know if it makes sense from a business point of view but I think Rivian is a cool product and wouldn't mind having it in our portfolio.

It would be easier for Tesla to just rip off their design while using their own technology for manufacturability and structure.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elons leadership style was great for Tesla up until shortly after the model Y released. You are projecting.

I am talking about scaling Tesla to be a 5+ million car company with plants all over the world and stores in every city. His brand will be a PR nightmare and his lack of fixing long standing problems such as service and QA will never get us there. These are things that matter much less in the early days. They will now.

Wow, must be nice to live in your brain and have so much certainty about the future.

Personally, I think Elon is smart enough to realize when things aren’t working, and pivot to new systems that will work. He has very audacious goals for Tesla, so if the company is failing to grow and meet those goals, he’ll do something about it. Ie. He isn’t a one trick pony, he adjusts when the world changes. Will he be successful, that I don’t know for sure, but I think it more likely than not.

 

[Dutchie]

For all the people down south “Happy Thanksgiving”.

For us it is kind of a weekend day as stock markets are closed.

 

[FSDtester#1]

TSLA has surged +7.82% to $183.20. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance.

This was nice to see the day before the market was closed for the holiday.
Now we can take the day off, and our good friends, the MMs can also.
Happy Thanksgiving to all who partake!

Edit: ninjaed by @Dutchie !

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm beginning to feel like I might be an ignorant fool because I'm not seeing the problem with margin. I'm afraid I'm the guy at the card table who can't spot the sucker.

I have 2600 TSLA shares in my brokerage account. 200 of them were bought on margin at an average price of about 210. I feel perfectly comfortable with this and the only concern I have is when I read all your posts warning against margin. Is there something I'm missing? I don't feel like I have any realistic risk of getting Called, am I wrong on that?

It's relatively low risk because the amount of extra shares is so small. And, for the same reason, the reward is relatively low too (and you have to pay interest which lowers potential returns). The risk is not zero so it depends upon what you mean by "realistic risk of getting called". In my definition of the word "realistic", the answer is yes, the risk is realistic (however low). If TSLA makes up most or all of your brokerage account, the risk is much higher than if TSLA is a smaller fraction of the account.

I've avoided using margin because it means I am no longer in control. An investor on margin is beholden to their broker who has the right to call those shares back simply because they decide to. They don't need an excuse or a reason. They can also change the margin requirements without your consent. The first scenario results in an instant margin call, the second scenario probably does not (but it could, depending upon how the margin requirements are changed).

While the scenarios may sound unlikely, I think the fact that Tesla threatens so many interests, including many on Wall Street, heightens the risk somewhat. The only way to maintain control of your investments is to only invest money that you own. It's a personal decision that every investor must make on their own. Out of principle, that is one risk I chose to avoid. You can succeed spectacularly as an investor without ever leveraging by using margin.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Calling it right now. Neuralink’s presentation Nov 30 will showcase telepathy. A human that can type just by thinking.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595643786872225794

 

[Ogre]

I agree with you if when you say, "Elon has a habit of being lucky with his early strategies", you mean that Elon is a visionary. Because I do believe in superior vision, but I don't believe in luck. Superior vision is the ability to parse reality (current information) accurately enough to have a good idea of how it will progress over time.

Exactly.

Anyone who feels Musk was lucky with Tesla needs to go back and re-read how early Tesla came together. Without some tough decisive choices early on, Tesla would not exist.

 

[2daMoon]

Personally, I think Elon is smart enough to realize when things aren’t working, and pivot to new system that will work. He has very audacious goals for Tesla, so if the company is failing to grow and meet those goals, he’ll do something about it. Ie. He isn’t a one trick pony, he adjusts when the world changes. Will he be successful, that I don’t know for sure, but I think it more likely than not.

That is just crazy talk.

Elon never drops everything and changes course when the situation dictates. That would be like failing fast and often, then iterating. Nobody does that. This is precisely why the cars are still built on a Lotus chassis, Starship is still made of carbon fiber, and ...
/s (for the sarcastically challenged)

Oh, wait, never mind.

 

[wipster]

I don't use the ignore function often (only once actually), but there is a prime candidate out there today... especially after reading their previous posts...

 

[wipster]

Calling it right now. Neuralink’s presentation Nov 30 will showcase telepathy. A human that can type just by thinking.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595643786872225794

But, is it human? I read they were prohibited from experimenting on/with humans.

Regardless, should be an awesome presentation, especially with Optimus making an appearance... hopefully the new version can now walk without assistance!

 

[FSDtester#1]

I don't use the ignore function often (only once actually), but there is a prime candidate out there today... especially after reading their previous posts...

Pro tip: Don't drop their name or you will get downvotes for everything you post.
"Even saying hello Tmc, you all are wonderful."
I made that error in judgment, and expect my good friend to downvote this post.

 

[2daMoon]

It's relatively low risk because the amount of extra shares is so small. And, for the same reason, the reward is relatively low too (and you have to pay interest which lowers potential returns). The risk is not zero so it depends upon what you mean by "realistic risk of getting called". In my definition of the word "realistic", the answer is yes, the risk is realistic (however low). If TSLA makes up most or all of your brokerage account, the risk is much higher than if TSLA is a smaller fraction of the account.

I've avoided using margin because it means I am no longer in control. An investor on margin is beholden to their broker who has the right to call those shares back simply because they decide to. They don't need an excuse or a reason. They can also change the margin requirements without your consent. The first scenario results in an instant margin call, the second scenario probably does not (but it could, depending upon how the margin requirements are changed).

While the scenarios may sound unlikely, I think the fact that Tesla threatens so many interests, including many on Wall Street, heightens the risk somewhat. The only way to maintain control of your investments is to only invest money that you own. It's a personal decision that every investor must make on their own. Out of principle, that is one risk I chose to avoid. You can succeed spectacularly as an investor without ever leveraging by using margin.

In my spreadsheet there is a column that shows how many shares would have to be sold to cover the margin loan. It helps me to avoid temptation and delivers me from evil margin calls. That is, it paints a realistic picture of the risk exposure in a way I can see at a glance.

I've been glancing a lot lately.

 

[2daMoon]

Just imagine the revenue possible if Tesla started providing the financing too. Obviously doesn't apply to TMCers who purchase their Teslas with cash, but still... and especially with CyberTruck and the smaller more affordable model coming out. It boggles the mind.

Might not fit into the mission, but it could make Teslas more attractive to the general public.

Better yet, what if financing is arranged through X.com, distancing Tesla from the financing aspect completely?

While keeping it in the family, so to speak.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I know this doesn't count since it's ancedotal evidence in the positive way for Tesla but

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595855743055728640

FSD will probably have a double whammy effect from Q4 to Q1. The deferred revenue recognition in Q4 and then material addition to margins from subscriptions going through the roof (relative to FSD's take rate before). This dynamic will be somewhat muted in Q4 since the wide release is happening at the end of the 2nd month of the quarter.

Q1 really shaping up to be transformative quarter. Continued expansion out of Berlin/Austin leading to 500k + deliveries combined with IRA production credits + FSD subscription % growing significantly from Q4 + all FSD revenue now 100% recognized at point of sale.......Gonna be one hell of a quarter

 

[wipster]

Better yet, what if financing is arranged through X.com, distancing Tesla from the financing aspect completely?

While keeping it in the family, so to speak.

Interesting concept, but while X.com could probably use the revenue, I think it would be better if it stayed in-house. Besides, my preference is to keep Tesla and Twitter/X-com as separate as possible. Good discussion and announcement medium, but we don't need to own it...