BILL F'n GATES while not disclosing he is shorting TSLA.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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"Dan Priestley, Tesla Semi Program manager" according to Tesla Semi: Delivering a disruptive electric truck
Hold on folks. Please look at % sales volume of Semi, not the count. As I recall from the show, there are "only ~200K" Semi's sold annually vs 10M cars. So as dents go, Semi only needs 1/50th the volume to match the pace of conversion to EVs on the Auto side.
What these small numbers do represent are batteries that are nearly 100% utilized. As missions go, they should build out Semi's over cars... until Robotaxi's.
What these small numbers do represent are batteries that are nearly 100% utilized. As missions go, they should build out Semi's over cars... until Robotaxi's.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
U.S. Nov. jobs numbers may have come in hot, but Ford's Nov. Auto sales were not:
Ford auto sales decline 7.8% year-over-year in November | CNBC Television on Youtube
Ford auto sales decline 7.8% year-over-year in November | CNBC Television on Youtube
If information I was told when I took delivery on my Plaid is correct, in normal cruise only one motors is used. 31:20 ff
During the semi delivery event at 31:20 ff they said the power electronics, inverters, HVAC and motors were all from existing Tesla practice and that the motors were Plaid motors. I think that the traction management systems are also combined with power management providing both traction and efficiency benefits.
One other thing makes me believe that these power management Semi elements already has been Tesla practice since early Model S. In ~2015 I drove an S70 from San Francisco to Atlanta. The car managed extraction from a snow bank that an adjacent Range Rover could not manage, but the RWD Tesla actually did. I was amazed! A thousand or so miles later the car had seriously reduced power so I ended out with the brand new Denver Service Center on a Saturday afternoon. The service manager asked me about my trip thus far, I told him about the snow and he said Tesla updated traction conditions 1,000 times per minute and that they were working to improve that. in 2018 I learned that my new Model 3P used only one motor in cruise.
That story was only to illustrate that Tesla is, as we all know, using a common OS for vehicles, but each is tweaked to suit the needs of each application. The very use of Plaid motors, for example, makes the very high loads needs for mountains and heavy loads, certain to be vastly more efficient and responsive. However, all that amazing capability is coming at a low price with high durability...from the outset!
One part that was left to our imagination is how they can have a megawatt charging station both Semi and Cybertruck able to absorb that power. Another was how those screens are able to accept all the previously uncoordinated reporting and monitoring needs. It seems to me that the five years have produced capabilities vastly beyond what was disclosed.
The direct implication of what we were told is that Semi is cheap to build, and benefits directly from pre-existing parts. It's very odd that such practices of using 'existing parts bins' normally are stifling innovation. For Tesla though, that just means they can iterate everything more quickly.
Now I'd really want to know how the autopilot works and how they'll be able to implement convoys. How quickly can production ramp to 100,000 per annum? How easily can they configure for, say, Australian Road Trains?
This is more exciting than I ever thought it could be.
Drumheller
Active Member
1. If the semi is using 2170 cells at this time, and we use old data (Tesla is likely more efficient now): The model Y long range uses 4416 cells to create a 75kWh pack. If the semi has a 1MWh pack, that's about 13 and 1/3 Model Y long range packs. So about 58,880 cells. Each cell weighs 68 grams. Total battery cells weight in this example is just over 4 million grams or about 8,827 pounds of battery cells. The Model Y long range motor weighs about 99 pounds. I couldn't find a weight for the carbon-wrapped motors, but assume it's slightly heavier so I'll estimate 100 pounds each. That bring the weight to 9,127 pounds for battery cells and motors. Add a few hundred pounds for housing / drive train components, but the question is where to draw the line to compare to removing the diesel engine and transmission. Some drive components may be similar / required in both. For this example, I'll round up to 10,000 pounds for the electric drive train. Perhaps that is low.
The average weight I found on Google for a class 8 truck diesel engine is 2,880 pounds. The figure I found for transmission weight is about 800 pounds. The fuel tanks typically have a capacity between 120 and 160 gallons. Some trucks have two tanks, so starting fuel could range from 120 gallons to 320 gallons. Fuel is consumed so weight changes during the trip. I'll target a value of 100 gallons of fuel to be conservative. Diesel weighs about 7 pounds per gallon, so another 700 pounds of weight for average fuel. That brings me 4,380 pounds for diesel drive train. I don't have a good idea of other components to factor in.
From that example, the EV semi would weigh about 5,600 pounds more than the diesel semi. I have no doubt Tesla did some optimizing on weight of the cab creature comforts and frame. The law allows EV semis to be 2,000 pounds heavier than a diesel semi. In a max weight scenario, and if my figures are close, then the diesel could haul about 3,000 more pounds of cargo than the EV semi. When fuel and maintenance costs are factored in, I suspect the EV semi becomes the obvious cost effective choice, even with a smaller cargo capacity, by weight.
I'm open to corrections for my estimates.
4. Elon previously stated they would have a 1,000,000 mile warranty (if I recall from the video years ago). It also has stronger windshield glass that is more resistant to breaking, less maintenance requirements, and will include Tesla's software safety features, which can help reduce liability / insurance costs.
I don't think so. Tesla has done that since the Model 3 AWD. We were a trifle surprised when Priestly said 'clutches'. Those are almost 100% certain to be software, rather than hardware, just as with current AWD Tesla practice. FWIW, that is one reason the Plaid cars have astounding efficiency at moderate constant speeds and regularly surpass EPA numbers in highway driving. Semi probably is a Plaid to manage high torque loads and still a Plaid for motor management overall.
They told us as much at 31:00 and following.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Can we all stop speculating about the truck having less weight payload than a diesel truck?
In the 2020 and 2021 Impact Reports Tesla has already answered this, saying that the truck can carry MORE, at least after factoring in the higher legal weight limit. Tesla has not disclosed how much more, but they have unambiguously said it will be at least as much weight. If you want to say otherwise, please explain how you concluded Tesla was either wrong or lying.
“we expect the payload to be at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck”
In the 2020 and 2021 Impact Reports Tesla has already answered this, saying that the truck can carry MORE, at least after factoring in the higher legal weight limit. Tesla has not disclosed how much more, but they have unambiguously said it will be at least as much weight. If you want to say otherwise, please explain how you concluded Tesla was either wrong or lying.
“we expect the payload to be at least as high as it would be for a diesel truck”
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Maybe the ampacity graph gives the answer to my own question on whether they can theoretically hit 0-80% 30 minute charge on the 500 mile version ( along with the new 1.7 kWh / mile consumption revelation).
V4 at 35 amps per mm^2 / V3 at 13 amps per mm^2 gives V4 a 2.7X current capacity advantage for the same size connector.
480 V3 volts / 1000 V4 volts means equivalent power requires ~ 0.5X as much current
Those two factors would yield an ampacity limited power 5.4X of V3 = 1.35 MW. (Providing V3 is at its ampacity limit at 250 kW).
1.35 MW * 0.5 hours time charging / 1.7 kWh per mile = 395 miles per 30 minutes charge. 80% on the nose!
I love it when numbers work!
Feel free to check or chime in on my math.
I may be misunderstanding you, but those are definitely software controlled mechanical disconnects on the drive axles.
No. They specifically said that they completely disconnect the motors so that they don't spin at all when not in use. (And they showed the disconnect method, which looks a lot like what is used to "disconnect" the front axels on 4WD trucks. It might even be similar to how Rivian is disconnecting the rear motors on the R1T/R1S, I don't recall exactly.)
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Umm…the CEO of Daimler Trucks, one of the world’s biggest semi truck manufacturers?
Yes it is. That’s the main reason why no one has done it before. Assuming we mean 500 miles with same payload as diesel.
You are way high on weight of semi drivetrain I think. Use 1.7 kw/mile and you’ll end up with smaller than 1000 MWh battery pack. No sleeper can either. Saves a lot of weight.
thesmokingman
Active Member
That poster is trolling us, acting like all the skepticism heaped on the Semi for years never existed.
100% growth for their EV's when you're starting base is so low is pretty damn pathetic.
In relation to Tesla's current growth, Ford needs to be growing their EV sales by more like 1000%......not 100%......just to not fall further and further behind.
1.7 x 500 miles gets you 850kWh used.
Running rough numbers from the 500 mile trip chart (impact of SOC due to altitude change), I come up with around a 975 kWh pack.
One would hope that this additional product using Plaid motors might help them move down the Wright’s Law curve, given that Plaid S/X is a relatively low volume product.
edit: i.e., I want a Model 3 Plaid
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1.7kwh per mile under what conditions ?
Everything here is speculation until Tesla officially releases a spec sheet
Btw......just to point it out, Troy already trying to lay the ground work for his "pivot" where he dramatically raises his delivery estimate in the final couple of weeks of the quarter.
Just like China price cuts, he'll try and control the narrative that was part of his process even though we all here, quarters ago, said that A) Tesla would do price cuts on the China when the Shanghai updates were complete and B) Tesla would do a temporary price drop in the US at the end of the year.
Just like China price cuts, he'll try and control the narrative that was part of his process even though we all here, quarters ago, said that A) Tesla would do price cuts on the China when the Shanghai updates were complete and B) Tesla would do a temporary price drop in the US at the end of the year.
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