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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
FSDtester#1
Large Member
Say it isn't so, you mean I now have to remember how to use that darn ignore button again? I think TMC should rename it to the "Troll Control"
The same as Tesla has said the 500 mile range is for: Fully load, 82k lbs., at highway, ~60 MPH, speeds.
No one is trolling you.
There was plenty of skepticism over the semi. Most of it is uninformed skepticism that is not worth responding to.
Informed skepticism was around payload and cost and not whether it is physically possible to build a semi that will go 500 miles.
Tesla has for now chosen not to answer those questions. That’s their right. I too read Tesla’s impact report and the section addressing semi had a lot of “expect” and “should”. Nowhere has Tesla unambiguously told us in writing that what the weight of the semi is.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tesla doesn't want to give all their secrets away too soon and it's a good bet it's not a friction clutch, but a positively locking one. One method that occurred to me was to use data from rotational sensors to perfectly synchronize the speed of the motor with that of the drive unit at the moment of engagement and only apply more than minimum torque once there was confirmation of engagement. A proper implementation could result in essentially zero wear, even on clutch capable of handling very high torques.
Disconnecting the motors removes the bearing friction of the motors from the equation (as well as any residual magnetic drag) while simultaneously allowing the most efficient motors to be used. My guess is one compelling factor was being able to maximize regenerative braking efficiency. Loaded trucks rely on their brakes much more often than passenger cars so optimizing regen efficiency would be key for driving in traffic and maximizing regen potential may have been necessary for descending mountain grades while fully loaded without use of friction brakes. The shape and timing of the magnetic fields of the motors designed to maximize regen efficiency will vary a bit from that of a motor designed to maximize efficiency of power delivery.
It makes good sense that tailoring different motors to excel at different tasks, and being able to uncouple them at will, is the kind of thinking that turns the impossible and impractical into tomorrow's trucking norm. The short-term thinking instigated by the corporate cost-cutting of the 1980's is what made this kind of innovation go away. We should all be thankful that the world has Elon and his teams who love to innovate better ways to do things. This is why I invest in TSLA. It's not our fault that the rest of the investment community doesn't understand what this means for future demand and profits.
Is that out of the battery or at the wheel ?
lafrisbee
Active Member
Lightning "Ramp" is going great /s
Up to a whole 2,000 last month (after 6 months now)!
100% growth when a year ago you had 1 car (Mach-E) and now you have 3 (Mach-E, F150L, eTransit) is no big deal. Find it odd that F150L sales in November dropped from 2400 to 2000 month over month. I suspect CyberTruck by end of next year will be outselling F150L on a monthly basis.
Wherever it is we can at least agree that Tesla does not yet have a production facility to produce semi at scale
thesmokingman
Active Member
The Lightning problem videos on youtube are quite abundant.
From my brokerage's newsfeed:
We lower our 12-month target by $40 to $300, based on a '24 P/E of 44.1x, justified by TSLA's long-term growth potential. Late Thursday, TSLA delivered its first Semi class 8 commercial electric truck to client PepsiCo (PEP 186 *****). The Semi has an estimated single-charge range of 500 miles with a max payload of 82K pounds, and represents Tesla's first new vehicle model since Model Y deliveries began in March 2020. Clearly, TSLA's share price performance has been hurt by the incessant noise surrounding Twitter since Elon Musk completed his acquisition in late October, but we believe concerns regarding additional stock sales by Musk are overblown. We are bullish on demand for the Semi as TSLA moves forward with ramping production of the truck to 50K units in 2024, seeing considerable appetite from large corporations seeking to reduce their carbon footprints. We also see increased likelihood of a stock buyback announcement in the range of $5B-$10B following TSLA's selloff and forecast 40% EPS growth in 2023.
CFRA REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF TESLA, INC.
12:51 pm ET December 2, 2022 (CFRA) PrintWe lower our 12-month target by $40 to $300, based on a '24 P/E of 44.1x, justified by TSLA's long-term growth potential. Late Thursday, TSLA delivered its first Semi class 8 commercial electric truck to client PepsiCo (PEP 186 *****). The Semi has an estimated single-charge range of 500 miles with a max payload of 82K pounds, and represents Tesla's first new vehicle model since Model Y deliveries began in March 2020. Clearly, TSLA's share price performance has been hurt by the incessant noise surrounding Twitter since Elon Musk completed his acquisition in late October, but we believe concerns regarding additional stock sales by Musk are overblown. We are bullish on demand for the Semi as TSLA moves forward with ramping production of the truck to 50K units in 2024, seeing considerable appetite from large corporations seeking to reduce their carbon footprints. We also see increased likelihood of a stock buyback announcement in the range of $5B-$10B following TSLA's selloff and forecast 40% EPS growth in 2023.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
When Tesla said they expect at least as much payload as diesel, they already knew precisely how much the tractor weighed and they had extensive data and experience from at least five years of in-house testing hauling their own loads. They again stated the same expectation in May 2022.
Do you actually have doubts that in the last six months the weight of the truck has increased by thousands of pounds for the production version? If anything the weight has likely decreased since then as optimization continues.
Regarding cost, even if this truck is priced at like $420k it’s still a great value proposition because the operating cost savings of roughly $0.50-$1.00 per mile quickly accumulate to outweigh the higher upfront capital investment vs diesel.
thesmokingman
Active Member
Shrugs, if it quacks like a duck...
No....we can't lol. I guess you're just going to ignore that Elon specifically said there were tours of the production lines
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
All forward looking statements in all companies are peppered with "expect" and "should", or legally should be, even when confidence level is high. Using this to instill doubt is an indicator of purposeful FUD or, at best, ignorance.
I think questions about cost are necessary to model profit margins, but there is not enough uncertainty as to payload capacity to move the profit margins significantly. Worst case scenario is it can haul 5-7% less than a diesel semi. The cost savings of fuel and maintenance and safety completely dwarf the slightly lower load capacity because most miles travelled by a semi are at partial load anyway, rendering any possible difference not relevant. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that the load capacity is, for most intents and purposes, on par with most traditional diesel trucks.
Regardless of what Tesla “expects” it is not hard fact until there are numbers. I am a Tesla fan. I am fully aware of what they are capable of. I just don’t think that we should be stating as fact things that are not yet confirmed.
If freightliner showed an electric semi driving the same 500 mile route tommorow, we would all be skeptical until we saw payload and cost numbers. Not everyone is familiar with Tesla and they have a right to be skeptical until they see hard numbers.
When a truck is supposedly “in production” but no pricing or weight information has been officially released, people will be even more skeptical.
From my newsfeed:
A spokeswoman for the food and beverage company said its Frito-Lay unit would take delivery of 15 trucks and have them in place at a Modesto, Calif. plant by the end of the year.
However, this doesn’t match the number in the headline
A spokeswoman for the food and beverage company said its Frito-Lay unit would take delivery of 15 trucks and have them in place at a Modesto, Calif. plant by the end of the year.
However, this doesn’t match the number in the headline
Strong recommendation that folks review the language, phrasing and intent behind the myriad of posts now having to explain basic, objective things when there seems to be no interest to find the information on one's own.
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