Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

What knowledgeable people doubted was that you could make a useful or affordable 500 mile semi.

Your initial comment said "no one".

 

[Tony73]

Well maybe he has a point. Everyone knows, for example, that 40,000 pounds of chips and soda weigh less than 40,000 pounds of say concrete. Just like a pound of feathers is less than a pound of bricks.

You can’t fit 40,000 pounds of chips in a trailer. You run out of space long before max weight.

Now Soda, that will hit max weight. But Reuters was referring specifically to chips

 

[cusetownusa]

You can’t fit 40,000 pounds of chips in a trailer

Well i did say chips and SODA. But anyways, it was meant as a joke and I spent zero time figuring out how much a full trailer of chips and soda would weigh.

 

[larmor]

The SP will not react to the semi reveal because all Tesla has really shown so far us that they made a truck that can travel 500 miles at max gross weight. No one doubts that is technically possible. What is really, really hard is to get the payload and cost to acceptable levels
I don’t doubt Tesla has done that but they have chosen not to reveal those details so the market will continue to ignore semi for now.

"The SP will not react to the semi reveal because all Tesla has really shown so far us that they made a truck that can travel 500 miles at max gross weight. No one Everyone doubts that is technically possible. What is really, really hard is to get Tesla to pay for the load at no cost to the customer, so in essence become both the producer, shipper, and customer."

An amazing achievement, better get those diesel prices down or Semi Tesla is going to be even more profitable for both Tesla and the customer.

 

[NicoV]

FYI, chart from ARK research. Using their own metric of EV performance, shows that EV competitors have mostly (but not all) gotten better than the original 2013 Model S, and are equivalent to the 2018 Model 3, but lag far behind the 2021 Models.

They predict that Tesla's lead will only increase by 2026. All this isn't news to us who have been following the performance details of various EVs, but nice to see it summarized on a chart:

View attachment 880557

In what units is that ARK Electric Vehicle Performance Index?
MIPS?
(aka Meaningless Indicator of Performance)
What does it mean that the forecasted 26 Tesla will score 50, versus 1.5 for the 2013 Model S?

 

[BornToFly]

A receding tide lowers all boats.

So when the boat goes lower than the tide?

Our boat has a hole in it....

 

[Dreadnought]

The Tesla Semi made its 500 mile drive with some losses due to hills (regen not 100% efficiency). I captured this by extrapolating the slope of energy draw used on the flattish Central Valley portion. I estimate 574 miles of range on a flat route and same speeds.

574 miles at ~1.72 kW/mile = 1000 kWh pack.

View attachment 880526

It's those uphill and downhill sections where an EV semi truck really shines. Where the chart shows dents in state-of-charge, a Diesel semi instead

• consumes additional fuel that it can't recuperate
• has to gear down, further reducing efficiency
• slows down on the way up
• is equally slow on the way down to avoid that brakes overheat

The EV's speed advantage in hilly terrain can be either converted to reduced speed on the plains for more range at same average speed or higher overall average speed compared to old-school ICE (less driver wage and other benefits).

 

[thx1139]

Agreed. I watched it though and LOVED the part where he says nuclear should be part of the solution....at a Tesla event....that sales batteries, solar panels, and storage....he can say that crap in interviews, but he was promoting a company that doesn't have anything to do with nuclear. Stupid.

I really do wish that people that say nuclear should be part of the solution, and I am not against nuclear, would actually talk about the biggest issue with nuclear in my mind. Nuclear plants take forever and a day to go from proposal to producing energy. Georgia and France are still working on reactors that were started 15 years ago. Until that can be answered I dont see it. Solar, Wind can be proposed and deployed seemingly overnight. Battery Storage still has shortages, but not the only type of storage that can be deployed. Also Solar can be used with agriculture and shielding for water canals and agriculture in arid place to help with water evaporation to help with non energy production issues.

 

[Drumheller]

This argument over chips vs soda is irrelevant. Either you believe Tesla did the 500 mile drive with over 81000 pounds, as stated, or you think they are lying.

Seems to me it's a stupid thing to lie about, including offering video, when you're handing the product over to a 3rd party that can immediately do their own test run, if they choose

 

[Captkerosene]

How many trucks did PepsiCO get …2?…. The executives got 2 cards?
Does not seem like we’ll do 100 by end of year?

No, it doesn't. I'm not sure they'll do more than a few hundred next year. 50K units in 2024? This whole program looks very fishy.

1) My guess is that the truck weighs at least 5K pounds more than a standard tractor.

2) It's not listed for sale.

3) The specs aren't shown.

4) No warranty information. How many 100K plus batteries will it take to operate a million miles? Can the batteries be fixed or does one little problem mean total replacement?

5) I'll bet if you call them up they won't give you a spec sheet, price or delivery date. I'd love to be wrong ... maybe somebody will try that?

6) Where is the factory that will produce it? One a day ain't gonna do it.

The problem is, this looks like a "soft launch." Closer to building prototypes than actually entering production.

My guess is they don't have the battery supply to enter full production. That it'll be many years before they do have the batteries.

If you're building spreadsheets to model Semi sales and profits ... you'll be wrong.

Doesn't bode well for the 4680 ramp.

Have a nice day.

 

[NicoV]

One of the best (or should I say serious) Flemish newspapers has this article about the Semi: Tesla gaat eerste elektrische truck leveren
The most interesting thing is the last sentence:”Lange tijd werd gedacht dat niet elektriciteit maar waterstof de groene technologie was voor vrachtwagens”.
In English: “For a long time it was thought that not electricity but hydrogen would be the green energy technology for trucks”.
It’s sinking in.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's those uphill and downhill sections where an EV semi truck really shines. Where the chart shows dents in state-of-charge, a Diesel semi instead

• consumes additional fuel that it can't recuperate
• has to gear down, further reducing efficiency
• slows down on the way up
• is equally slow on the way down to avoid that brakes overheat

The EV's speed advantage in hilly terrain can be either converted to reduced speed on the plains for more range at same average speed or higher overall average speed compared to old-school ICE (less driver wage and other benefits).

And it frankly sucks to drive in those situations. I've never driven a semi, but have driven full size box trucks and dually type pick ups with 30-40ft trailers many times. It can be stressful because if you are in an area of rolling hills you want to gain speed on the downslope so that you don't come to a crawl on the upslope. This is complicated by other vehicles on the road.

 

[Tony73]

This argument over chips vs soda is irrelevant. Either you believe Tesla did the 500 mile drive with over 81000 pounds, as stated, or you think they are lying.

Seems to me it's a stupid thing to lie about, including offering video, when you're handing the product over to a 3rd party that can immediately do their own test run, if they choose

Not to truckers it isn’t. 81k is gross weight. They want to know max payload weight

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So much for an epic battle for 200 lol. More like the battle for 190. MM's easily gonna walk this thing down to 189.99

 

[Nocturnal]

Not to truckers it isn’t. 81k is gross weight. They want to know max payload weight

This product isn't for owner operators. Fleet owners will manage this and if it means slightly lower volumes of cargo they will factor that into savings and purchasing decisions.

 

[Singuy]

Not to truckers it isn’t. 81k is gross weight. They want to know max payload weight

I'm pretty sure by the time the Semi is available for individual folks, it'll be a different product with a different payload weight. Tesla needs to focus on building out the infrastructure before individual truckers even consider a Tesla Semi. So right now their customers will be big corporations who will help Tesla beta test the Semi for a few years while the infrastructure is built out. This is pretty clear from the presentation as these Semis are still a work in progress, but reliable and usable enough for corporations with unlimited budget looking for good PR.

 

[Tony73]

No, it doesn't. I'm not sure they'll do more than a few hundred next year. 50K units in 2024? This whole program looks very fishy.

1) My guess is that the truck weighs at least 5K pounds more than a standard tractor.

2) It's not listed for sale.

3) The specs aren't shown.

4) No warranty information. How many 100K plus batteries will it take to operate a million miles? Can the batteries be fixed or does one little problem mean total replacement?

5) I'll bet if you call them up they won't give you a spec sheet, price or delivery date. I'd love to be wrong ... maybe somebody will try that?

6) Where is the factory that will produce it? One a day ain't gonna do it.

The problem is, this looks like a "soft launch." Closer to building prototypes than actually entering production.

My guess is they don't have the battery supply to enter full production. That it'll be many years before they do have the batteries.

If you're building spreadsheets to model Semi sales and profits ... you'll be wrong.

Doesn't bode well for the 4680 ramp.

Have a nice day.

The program is not fishy.
Elon just chose to call what happened yesterday “start of production” when it obviously is not.
They are probably still a year out.

Weighing 5k more than a diesel is not necessarily a dealbreaker at the right price.

 

[JRP3]

1) My guess is that the truck weighs at least 5K pounds more than a standard tractor.

Based on nothing? EV semis get a 2k weight bonus so even if you're correct it's only a 3k penalty.

How many 100K plus batteries will it take to operate a million miles?

What? A 500 mile pack only needs 2,000 cycles for a million miles.

Where is the factory that will produce it?

Nevada.

 

[Tony73]

Based on nothing? EV semis get a 2k weight bonus so even if you're correct it's only a 3k penalty.

What? A 500 mile pack only needs 2,000 cycles for a million miles.

Nevada.

Musk has said mass production of semi will be in TX

 

[mongo]

Here ya go.
Trailer is around 10k.
Assuming tractor maxed out its axles at 48k (12k + 34k + 2k) on its own and all the trailer weight was on thevrear axels (34k max), the combo still has a 24k of payload capacity available.
Things only get better from there.