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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The SP will not react to the semi reveal because all Tesla has really shown so far us that they made a truck that can travel 500 miles at max gross weight. No one doubts that is technically possible. What is really, really hard is to get the payload and cost to acceptable levels
I don’t doubt Tesla has done that but they have chosen not to reveal those details so the market will continue to ignore semi for now.
 
Model Y was also a yawner IIRC ... i am sure this is a multi year program for Pepsi and they are not going to delay deliveries for $40K ... yeah Telsa waited 5 years for this event and still smoke and mirrors ...makes 0 sense /s

you are letting your dissatisfaction with Elon cloud your judgment
Delay deliveries for 1 month to save $40K per truck. I do indeed think they would wait. They have waited this long what is another 30 days.
 
Down 2.3% so far in pre-market.

The market clearly no longer cares about things like revolutionary products, income, and growth. It's a complete joke.

You post it like it happened for the 1st time ever.

To all in 'high' spirits - just check the stonk price action a day after the CT presentation or for that matter any major reveal.
 
Tesla took the truck to Pepsi to test the chargers but Pepsi has not had a truck in its possession till now
You really think they would need to take the truck to Pepsi to test the chargers. I suspect they have been doing test runs with Tesla drivers likely with a Pepsi driver along for the ride. Even some Pepsi drivers getting trained on the truck.
 
You really think they would need to take the truck to Pepsi to test the chargers. I suspect they have been doing test runs with Tesla drivers likely with a Pepsi driver along for the ride. Even some Pepsi drivers getting trained on the truck.

The Tesla semi sent to Pepsi in Modesto one time to test chargers and it instantly leaked onto the internet. You really believe that in this where everyone has a camera in their pocket, that the Tesla semi would be doing Pepsi delivery runs and have not have leaked once. Besides it takes more than a few runs to evaluate a new product. My guess is that Pepsi has 90 days

 
I’m not about to play the fool’s game of predicting what the SP will do today, but I believe this morning’s action is a harbinger of good things to come. The macros are horrible this morning, but TSLA is single-handedly trying to pull up the market.

Everyone here knows that a declining NASDAQ pulls TSLA down with it. But what will trigger a rising NASDAQ?

Certainly, inflation numbers need to come down to reduce the fear, but we also need some leadership on the greed side.

If Tesla posts big profits for Q4 (or even the market starts believing that’s going to happen), that could be the catalyst for greed this market needs.
Has been defying macro all week - indexes were down bigly Monday and Tuesday, TSLA traded flat, down less on Tuesday, literally FLAT yesterday when indexes fell, etc.

I'm telling you, Stan Jonas' "TSLA is oversold" statement last week was the signal to *them* that it was time to allow the stock to rise

Not advice, all my opinions are my own, and mostly nonsense...

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Two products I am sure will sell out. The truck because it is a cool EV truck and there are so few options. The Semi because finally! finally someone is making a hard business case for EVs (ok the business case is simple, the numbers are cold hard truth). I really wonder what the price tag is on these.

Hopefully, the simple to prove and explain economics of the Semi will halo over the entire Tesla product line as BEV becomes more and more competitive with ICE.
 
A receding tide lowers all boats.
Not when your boat's beached already. Maybe someone pulls the plug and gets another 6" max. These are just the waves from the whales vs sharks... (not to get too poetic).

I had to do pull the plug my boat once - was beached at Lake Powell many years ago (when we had water). A nasty storm was beating it up on the shore (and we were in a cove already). It's what you did, but getting unstuck after it cleared was a challenge. It had 2 deep skegs bottom center (flat bottom Ski Centurion Barefoot Warrior).

There was literally no damage to the boat, just sunk it then hid from that sand blasting wind. We had a small tent that turned into a wet ball mostly buried in sand. My buddy arrived soon after surfing the storm in a 52' rental houseboat. Both front and rear glass doors were pushed out by water rushing in as it surfed through the waves. And for some reason, I thought it was a great weekend, and no one was hurt. I seem to enjoy a good challenge.
 
Good read

Summary:
Northwest Biotherapeutics (~$1bn market cap) filed a securities lawsuit alleging that market makers Canaccord Genuity LLC, Citadel Securities LLC, G1 Execution Services LLC, GTS Securities LLC, Instinet LLC, Lime Trading Corp., Susquehanna International Group LLP, Virtu Americas LLC, deliberately engaged in repeated manipulative spoofing of NWBO’s stock from December 5, 2017 – August 1, 2022, causing NWBO to issue more than 49 million shares at artificially depressed prices.

"Despite the string of encouraging news about its lead product, NWBO’s share price has not followed suit. Quite the opposite actually—and that is not by chance. Rather, because of Defendants’ spoofing, NWBO’s share price has dropped."

Spoofing is a form of market manipulation that, in this case, was accomplished by placing “Baiting Orders” in the Limit Order Book2 or Inter-Dealer Quotation System that are not intended to be executed and have no legitimate economic purpose. The purpose of these Baiting Orders is to create a false illusion of market interest that will generate a response from other market participants that the spoofers can use to their advantage. For example, if the goal of the spoofing scheme is to drive the price down, the spoofer enters Baiting Orders to sell, to create an appearance of a downward trending market, which will then bait other market participants into entering their own sell orders to minimize or avoid suffering losses. Shortly thereafter, the spoofer will place orders to buy, or “Executing Purchases,” which are intended to be executed against the other market participants’ sell orders at the lower artificial prices prompted by the false Baiting Orders to sell. Immediately after placing these Executing Purchases to buy, the spoofer then cancels all of the Baiting Orders to sell, which completes the profitable spoofing cycle.

Defendants engaged in spoofing on 395 of 1,171—or nearly 34%—of the trading days during the Relevant Period.

Relevance to TSLA:
Observers here have regularly pointed out spoofing of TSLA, and at least two of the market makers indicted have also been TSLA market makers. We're also of course painfully aware of long periods of declining/stagnating stock price despite an endless string of encouraging results. Perhaps Tesla or people on TMC could initiate a similar lawsuit.

Once again, NWBO has an average daily volume of about $1M shares traded, which is small enough to allow manipulation (it is essentially a penny stock). Hell, I've bought a few names recently (E3 Lithium is one) that literally took me weeks to buy a position in since every time I bought anything, I moved the stock price.

Tesla average daily volume is around $15B worth of shares. That's a 1,500 times difference, 3 orders of magnitude. Manipulating TSLA is far harder and at the very least, proof of NWBO manipulation doesn't mean anything about possible TSLA manipulation.
 
The Tesla semi sent to Pepsi in Modesto one time to test chargers and it instantly leaked onto the internet. You really believe that in this where everyone has a camera in their pocket, that the Tesla semi would be doing Pepsi delivery runs and have not have leaked once. Besides it takes more than a few runs to evaluate a new product. My guess is that Pepsi has 90 days

So do you think that every drive that Tesla Semi's have taken have been captured by cell phone camera's? How many shots have come out from the just recently done 500 mile drive? Should be 100s from 100s of people.
 
Have to be honest although the Semi impresses a great deal. It is awesome. Last nights presentation was a yawner. I am glad I didnt actually watch it. Was the 1st unveiling or delivery event that I have missed since the Model S delivery event. I have watched every other presentation. I just didnt want to see Elon speak, he has so turned me off. Still I was hoping for more. I would have loved to hear how many were delivered to Pepsi. I kinda get the feeling it was just 1 Semi. I mean if I was Pepsi I wouldnt want to take delivery of them until after January 1st when IRA starts and the Semi gets a $40K tax credit for Pepsi.
I would also like to see a Semicharger or 2 get installed at Gigatexas and they start using Tesla Semi's to take cars from factory to the train yard they are using to ship cars out. Want to see that this launch really did happen and isnt just publicity. Cant take Elon's word for things any longer.
Agreed. I watched it though and LOVED the part where he says nuclear should be part of the solution....at a Tesla event....that sales batteries, solar panels, and storage....he can say that crap in interviews, but he was promoting a company that doesn't have anything to do with nuclear. Stupid.
 
FYI, chart from ARK research. Using their own metric of EV performance, shows that EV competitors have mostly (but not all) gotten better than the original 2013 Model S, and are equivalent to the 2018 Model 3, but lag far behind the 2021 Models.

They predict that Tesla's lead will only increase by 2026. All this isn't news to us who have been following the performance details of various EVs, but nice to see it summarized on a chart:

1669995858343.png
 
You post it like it happened for the 1st time ever.

To all in 'high' spirits - just check the stonk price action a day after the CT presentation or for that matter any major reveal.
I was about to point out that this could be the first reveal that didn't cause a 10% drop in the SP next day. I woke up expecting it. There was almost no new news yesterday besides CyberTruck Charging on Semi's 1MW Chargers (did I hear that right?).

Re charging speeds, has anyone done charging speed tests on 4680 batteries, lab or vehicle, real or calculated? Not that CT could take 1MW, but there must be some advantage in the offering otherwise why mention it like "Should we tell them?" (Maybe already discussed, I skipped pages),
 
I liked the event. It was simple, no hard core tech speak. Basic ideas that anyone on WS could understand. No distractions or promises of new products to confuse people or give the haters something to complain about. Instead it was "We did it. Here is proof, we will keep improving it and part of that will be using them in our own fleet." AI, taxis, robots, all seem sci-fi, but a truck being handed to another company is real.

TSLAQ types will now claim that Tesla is using the trucks themselves to hide that they are fake or whatever, but as real world miles accumulate and orders start to get filled over this year they will have nothing to latch onto.
FYI, chart from ARK research. Using their own metric of EV performance, shows that EV competitors have mostly (but not all) gotten better than the original 2013 Model S, and are equivalent to the 2018 Model 3, but lag far behind the 2021 Models.

They predict that Tesla's lead will only increase by 2026. All this isn't news to us who have been following the performance details of various EVs, but nice to see it summarized on a chart:

View attachment 880557
If you compare margins at those levels of performance it would look even worse for legacy.
 
Many people did doubt it, quite publicly.

What knowledgeable people doubted was that you could make a useful or affordable 500 mile semi. The always said it would be too heavy or too expensive.
500 miles in and of itself is not a technical challenge.

Tesla had not told us the weight and the cost of the semi. I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt but others are not