Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

The data is just the data. The lack of data can cause incorrect assumptions too, worse as well.

I agree it’s interesting information; but it’s the assumptions drawn from the data that are erroneous. Inventory will be building. That’s not a bad thing especially coming into a subsidy environment in 2 weeks. The cars will get sold. Even if free charging or cheap other freebies are needed. Trust the process?

People really like to buy a car and get a car. Most people don’t want to order and wait multiple weeks for a car. Inventory in itself can increase demand.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

especially as other services are already doing it. You could tell us "my bad for trying to suppress the truth" and apologize to Troy for attacking him. That would be nice in this end of the year season that is a period of reflection and holy for many.

Right

 

[Stretch2727]

Wow ok, if some here can’t see the impracticality of what Troy is trying to crowd source here and then make a determination about how much inventory there is for the entire US market…I don’t know what to tell ya .

It may lead us no where. As investors we need every bit of information we can get. To me this is the most important aspect of this board. We can't shoot down every new idea or information as FUD. We need to let them try and make our own judgements to how valid it is.

 

[lafrisbee]

So big institutions 44%, public investors like state pensions 41%, individual investors 14,9% of which Elon, Larry and Leo hold the most. Where does that leave us as a collective? Retail is puny, we’re holding just a few crumbs.

Well that destroys my Hypothesis of the MM's shaking down the little guys as the reason for the huge swings in Stock Price. Now it all make no sense at all....to me.

 

[lafrisbee]

This "Troy" kerfuffle on here at the moment is a better FUD creator than most things I've heard on here. Good work!

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm pretty sure you didn't and you are ignoring the location which I highlighted in my tweet with the red boxes. Add a screenshot and a link so we can see the duplicates too. There are none in the US.

Here is Tesla's inventory page in case others want to try to find multiple instances of the same configuration in the same location: New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

Also, I'm getting some feedback about how many multiples actual inventory is in the US compared to the listed inventory (which shows only unique configurations per location). The idea that I can't possibly calculate an estimate is not correct.

But in this case, and in all other cases, where people try to guess an early number for production and deliveries, the estimate is inaccurate.

We get regular fully accurate numbers 4 times are year. Anyone trying to use an estimate to time the market with a clever trading strategy, is more likely to be sunk by a tweet from Elon, or any number of unknown factors.

We always know what just about everyone else knows, and precisely when they know it. And there is very little benefit that can reasonably be obtained from knowing it a bit earlier.

In the longer timeframe, what we know is, what many choose to ignore.

 

[Ogre]

If we assume that Elon needs to sell a certain number of shares, how can he do that as to not hurt the share price? I don’t see any options.

- Spread his sales over a longer time period? That will result in front-running and also weigh down the SP for a longer period.
- Sell to institutions or banks with a discount? That will lead to selling pressure as soon as those institutions and banks try to get rid of those shares (to make a profit).
- Announce he is done selling? He cried wolf too many times so investors will not believe him anymore. And the SEC probably doesn’t allow it anymore.
- Sell to Tesla (as part of a share buyback program). Can you imagine the huge amount of FUD that would cause about Tesla ‘bailing out’ Elon.

Sell only when the stock is near the ATH and just keep a significant non-Tesla holdings. Keep enough in non-Tesla stocks or cash to not need to sell when he needs cash. That would mean he would have needed to have already reduced his holdings by billions prior to the end of last year and it would also mean he wouldn’t have the flexibility to change his mind or have emergency sales like what this last seems to have been.

 

[StealthP3D]

Don't these numbers challenge all the MM/hedgies conspiracy theories so commonly shared in this thread? This math implies that ~95% of the shares are not likely to be swayed by emotions... All that to influence <5%? Not saying it's impossible, but it seems lower probability? Other's thoughts appreciated...

Not even a little bit. Money managers are human last time I checked and every bit as fearful and vulnerable as anyone else. In fact, I'm shocked at the poor judgement displayed by most of them. It's even more challenging to manage someone else's investments vs. your own.

 

[Stretch2727]

Geez, why doesn’t Tesla release this kind of information?! They should do that at least once per quarter. Is that too much to ask?

In a way they do...Production minus deliveries = inventory change. We don't like to wait

 

[Zero CO2]

As all current factories ramp/new factories are added and the revenue mix moves from HW to SW these production and delivery numbers will be less and less interesting and harder to predict .. they are already a tremendous source of FUD .. not sure if Tesla should do what Apple did a while back and stop providing production numbers.... thoughts?

 

[Ogre]

Incredible number of deliveries in Europe. This is a graph of the countries that report daily registrations. It looks like Q4 will have 50% more deliveries than any previous quarter in history. I'm devastated over this news, because this means the SP is dropping another 50%, right?.... /s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604068435767562240

I am trying to figure out why with Giga Berlin online the deliveries don’t start at the beginning of the quarter. Is GB exporting the first 30 days of production now? Perhaps to other parts of the EU? Shouldn’t insurance registrations start ramping on the first day of the quarter?

If nothing else, suggests to me the quarterly push is still a thing, just maybe less pronounced.

 

[StealthP3D]

While you are correctly addressing the deceptive nature of MSM, consider how shareholders, especially those who are not super familiar with Tesla resiliency, can benefit. They would really appreciate some sort of response, so that they are not overwhelmed by negative false information 24/7. The decision as to whom to listen to and whether to buy or sell is still theirs to make but at least provide them with our side of the story.

Maybe you have not been listening to the reasons I gave for believing it's a mistake to respond to every little media inquiry. For your benefit, I'll repeat:

Responding to rumors and made-up news gives credibility to those rumors and the denial is news itself which extends the life of the false narrative. Tesla does not need to babysit shareholders unless they are babies. If Tesla responds to every inquiry, then not only do the number of inquiries grow, but the expectation becomes that Tesla will respond and it's more meaningful if they decline to comment. Your claim that this would prevent shareholders from being overwhelmed by negative false information 24/7 is false.

Enron denied reports that their accounting was fictitious on a regular basis for months before we learned it was true.

Also, inquiries can be structured so that the implication is false, even when the essence is true. This provides journalists who wish to write a negative story a useful tool to provide justification for the story (normally news must happen to justify a news story). I'm not sure why I'm wasting my time explaining these easy-to-understand concepts for the tenth time.

Tesla used to have a department to handle press inquiries. Using experience and first principles thinking, they learned it was better to not say anything and to not make it easier for journalists to write pretend news stories. If you think you know better, then write a proposal for the next shareholder meeting rather than constantly demonstrating why I am glad you are not running Tesla. I'll bet such a proposal wouldn't even come close to passing, because most shareholders are smarter than that and they know the Board of Directors and Tesla management have done exactly that before and therefore have more direct experience doing exactly what you are proposing than they do. It's not that they are lazy, it's that they are smart and experienced.

 

[wipster]

The Reuters piece also stated that Frito Lay is a maker of light food products (can’t remember exact quote).

I suppose they also said that a ton of Doritos weighs less than a ton of Pepsi.

Intelligent journalism Reuters

 

[JustMe]

… it's a mistake to respond to every little media inquiry…

Responding to rumors and made-up news gives credibility to those rumors and the denial is news itself which extends the life of the false narrative.

Enron denied reports that their accounting was fictitious on a regular basis for months before we learned it was true.

…

Tesla used to have a department to handle press inquiries. Using experience and first principles thinking, they learned it was better to not say anything and to not make it easier for journalists to write pretend news stories.

It’s a mistake to equate a responsive investor relations or PR department to one that “responds to every little media inquiry”. Who is suggesting that? Tesla should counter quickly spreading false information that damages Tesla’s public image or may strongly move the stock. Tesla’s silence was deafening when asked about reports of imminent production cuts in China related to falling demand. The terse reply from Tesla China was vague and left open many questions.

Public denial of rumors with facts quashes the credibility of the source, NOT Tesla. Obviously, refusing to comment is not preventing stories being run and it’s not a good look.

I hope that we can agree that Tesla should not lie to the press or investors to quell uncomfortable rumors

 

[Singuy]

It may lead us no where. As investors we need every bit of information we can get. To me this is the most important aspect of this board. We can't shoot down every new idea or information as FUD. We need to let them try and make our own judgements to how valid it is.

I think the concern is that this type of information leads to incorrect extrapolation, especially if there are any outliers and if the information is not complete. Using a few samples to generalize could be a "EU zero demand" first week of the month moment. So the information is only useful if Troy gathers a complete set of information which is impossible.

 

[BornToFly]

and tesla clearly has hidden inventory because posters here have been offered hidden vehicles.

Personally, I think far too much attention given to the monthly numbers. This month is the last before IRA. It would be odd if people didn't wait. Next months numbers will be interesting but again, just a month. Watch for trends emerging. Don't speculate on monthly numbers. Don't speculate. Buy and hold.

Who are you and what have you done with nativewolf...?

 

[dl003]

Maybe you have not been listening to the reasons I gave for believing it's a mistake to respond to every little media inquiry. For your benefit, I'll repeat:

Responding to rumors and made-up news gives credibility to those rumors and the denial is news itself which extends the life of the false narrative. Tesla does not need to babysit shareholders unless they are babies. If Tesla responds to every inquiry, then not only do the number of inquiries grow, but the expectation becomes that Tesla will respond and it's more meaningful if they decline to comment. Your claim that this would prevent shareholders from being overwhelmed by negative false information 24/7 is false.

Enron denied reports that their accounting was fictitious on a regular basis for months before we learned it was true.

Also, inquiries can be structured so that the implication is false, even when the essence is true. This provides journalists who wish to write a negative story a useful tool to provide justification for the story (normally news must happen to justify a news story). I'm not sure why I'm wasting my time explaining these easy-to-understand concepts for the tenth time.

Tesla used to have a department to handle press inquiries. Using experience and first principles thinking, they learned it was better to not say anything and to not make it easier for journalists to write pretend news stories. If you think you know better, then write a proposal for the next shareholder meeting rather than constantly demonstrating why I am glad you are not running Tesla. I'll bet such a proposal wouldn't even come close to passing, because most shareholders are smarter than that and they know the Board of Directors and Tesla management have done exactly that before and therefore have more direct experience doing exactly what you are proposing than they do. It's not that they are lazy, it's that they are smart and experienced.

I will work on a proposal, thanks to your suggestion. I think what they did before was not the way to do it. The blog didnt have the reach it would take to go viral, for example. Post brief msgs on TWTR commenting on fake news stories from major FUD sources like Reuters and Bloomberg and let the earning results decide who are telling the truth.

 

[FireMedic]

As all current factories ramp/new factories are added and the revenue mix moves from HW to SW these production and delivery numbers will be less and less interesting and harder to predict .. they are already a tremendous source of FUD .. not sure if Tesla should do what Apple did a while back and stop providing production numbers.... thoughts?

The best numbers are no numbers. Nice.

And I hadn’t thought of it, but that certainly seems like TSLA style to not disclose production, inventory, or delivery numbers. Just give the top and bottom line and FCF.

 

[AudubonB]

Don't these numbers challenge all the MM/hedgies conspiracy theories so commonly shared in this thread? This math implies that ~95% of the shares are not likely to be swayed by emotions... All that to influence <5%? Not saying it's impossible, but it seems lower probability? Other's thoughts appreciated...

Or….you, @lafrisbee and others could read posts here that are, you know, actually both informed and informative, so especially the kind of malarkey in this post doesn’t keep coming around? Try the ones from @AudubonB, who addressed this not more than minutes after the original misunderstanding.

 

[Congo Line]

So big institutions 44%, public investors like state pensions 41%, individual investors 14,9% of which Elon, Larry and Leo hold the most. Where does that leave us as a collective? Retail is puny, we’re holding just a few crumbs.

Yes but when Vanguard is buying, they're buying on behalf of their retail brokerage and index fund clients; it's not like they run trading desks. So what exactly counts as institutional?