FUD is, by it's very nature, due to it's creators, intended to induce, in the most intrusive way, the worst in us.
In short, friends don't let friends fall for FUD.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
In short, friends don't let friends fall for FUD.
And if someone is raising demand as an issue, if it is unclear whether or not it is FUD, then don't over think it, is it FUD.
Given economic conditions in China and people waiting for the upcoming tax credit in US, it doesn't seem far fetched that there could be some (temporary) demand issues. There is still a lot Tesla can do to tweak demand, and I'm sure they will do that when the need arises (and we're seeing some of that now), so I'm not worried about it in the long run.
Exceedingly frustrated with the quality of posts here lately. Page after page of the same arguments about the same points which have been covered a million times in the past year and the bits and pieces of actual news have been drown out. Seriously considering just “ignoring” not just the ones who dig those arguments up over and over, but those who reply to them also.
If your argument has more than 2 replies in it… please consider taking it to DMs or to a separate thread. Particularly if it’s something which is not remotely new like Musk’s Twitter activities. Lots of pages and text spilled on both sides of some of these issues the past few days which has been retrod many times. There are interesting things going on which are interesting which deserve more focus that are just getting drown out in the low signal-to-noise.
Most likely that guy you just replied to 6 times doesn’t care about what you say regardless and the rest of us are drowning.
If your argument has more than 2 replies in it… please consider taking it to DMs or to a separate thread. Particularly if it’s something which is not remotely new like Musk’s Twitter activities. Lots of pages and text spilled on both sides of some of these issues the past few days which has been retrod many times. There are interesting things going on which are interesting which deserve more focus that are just getting drown out in the low signal-to-noise.
Most likely that guy you just replied to 6 times doesn’t care about what you say regardless and the rest of us are drowning.
Last edited:
In isolation there is at least some element of truth to these claims...
When we get official production and delivery and earnings reports we will see in context how important the issue is.
And more context will be provided by the Q1 reports.
Whenever incentives are being removed or added, there can be short term distortions.
The numbers I like best of all are trailing 12 month averages, if an issue has been happening for over a year, it is significant.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I doubt it. I’m not an attorney but I’m pretty sure laws are laws after Congress passes them and POTUS signs them, and the IRA specified that the clean energy subsidies come into effect after Dec 31st. There are still some details to be clarified between now and then but unless the Supreme Court rules that it’s unconstitutional then as far as I know it will be in effect exactly as written.
I follow Alex & Karen. Alex does excellent research in his Patreon subscription. Karen applies her sharp mind too. S/N ratio, please, folks!
Krugerrand
Meow
Valid points and argument. No disagreement from me.
Now let’s just substitute the characters, that guy with Reuters et al and you with Tesla: Most likely Reuters, that Tesla just replied to 3 times, doesn’t care what Tesla says regardless.
Last edited:
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The prices for Model Y in China are higher than they were at the beginning of the year, even as production has ramped higher and higher.
Tesla hikes China-made Model Y price again — by more than $2,000
The standard China-made Model Y now costs 316,900 yuan ($49,932), up from the previous 301,840 yuan ($47,559) on Tuesday, according to data tracked by CNBC.
There is no demand problem! Frankly, I'm surprised at the number of gullible people and especially their willingness to admit it. Tesla has confirmed this time and time again. Tesla could use a shareholder hand-holding department more than a PR department.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I'm not going to contribute to whatever you are trying to do here - it's mean spirited and serves no purpose.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Exactly! The best metric to appraise current demand is to look at the current prices. Because Tesla is not setup to deal with huge inventories and they adjust their prices very quickly to maintain a balance between supply and demand. They will not cut production due to soft demand so if that is the claim, you know it's FUD. Tesla would need to slash prices multiple times in quick succession if there was a real demand problem. And they wouldn't hesitate to do it if it was necessary to keep moving production into the hands of new owners.
The demand FUD is being amplified right here by people ignoring this very basic principle.
But this reminds me of the moon landings and Vietnam happening at the same time. The amazing engineering prowess of Apollo did not justify or nullify the war and its consequences. The marvels of SpaceX do not mean that Tesla, TSLA or Elon will be OK.
No. To be honest, until 2 days ago, I was assuming that practically all production in the US would be delivered in Q4 except for a small number. Then on Dec 15, Tesla came up with the 10,000 mi free Supercharging incentive in the US (see the news article here) and at the same time, the US inventory count continued to increase. That's when I started to be concerned.
The US inventory you see on EV-CPO shows only unique configurations per location. In a few messages above, somebody got excited and claimed otherwise but they were careless and didn't look at the location. In fact, there are no identical configurations per location in Tesla's US inventory. In other words, if a location has 12 identical configurations, Tesla's New Inventory page and EV-CPO will show just 1. However, as I said, US inventory was not a big concern until 2 days ago. So, let's look at what was.
My calculation for Tesla's inventory in China is based on monthly CPCA (China Passenger Car Association) data. I want to explain how this works so hopefully the next time somebody makes comments about unreliable methods, others will explain that this is not Voodoo Science but it's simple maths.
China inventory was 10,321 at the end of June 2022 based on past CPCA data. In July, production was 38,719, deliveries were 8,461, and exports were 19,756 according to CPCA. Now we apply this simple formula: Change in inventory = Production - Deliveries - Exports
Inventory change in July was 38,719 Production -8,461 Deliveries -19,756 Exports = 10,502 units. That means inventory increased from 10,321 at the end of June to 10,321+10,502= 20,823 at the end of July. If we continue the same calculation for a few more months, we get 23,781 inventory at the end of November. This is about 5K too high for the second month of the quarter but that's not a big issue. The second month is supposed to be a little higher. Then in the third month, inventory is supposed to drop to 10K which would be the normal level.
The issue starts in December with no exports and low domestic sales. To understand the problem, we need to look at what the end-of-December inventory would be if December production was the same as November, which was 88,654 units.
End of December inventory = 20,823 inventory carryover from Nov to Dec + 88,654 Dec production - Dec deliveries - Dec exports
Let me simplify a little:
End of December inventory = 109,477 - Dec deliveries - Dec exports
The next step from here would be to look at December deliveries based on weekly car insurance data and December exports based on the number of ships. I'm looking at all these details and it doesn't look good without a reduction in production followed by a pause in production a week before the end of December.
Of course, it makes sense to look at inventory in days of production instead of units. Inventory was worth 4.2 days of production at the end of June 2022. That's the normal level. Then it was 6.5 days at the end of Sep. That's too high. They run out of buyers in mid-Sep when the first 8,000 Yuan insurance promotion was announced.
Last edited:
Krugerrand
Meow
How is your analogy relevant? You *might* be able to make some tenuous connection IF NASA was responsible for both Apollo AND the Vietnam War.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Re. PR department. I'm not against it. However, Elon is fighting the bigger right [Mod: Possibly, but I’m pretty sure author means “fight”]. In addition to free speech, 8 Bn people should be protected from FUD as consumers, activists or business owners (most of which don't have the luxury of a PR department). He expects that all 8 Bn people will eventually see that they cannot believe what they read about Tesla. After all, what entity is clearly doing the most good.
They will then extend this to other subjects. He owns a social media platform that will assist in this endeavour through use of NNs and community notes.
Further replies might be best here:
Does Tesla need a PR department?
They will then extend this to other subjects. He owns a social media platform that will assist in this endeavour through use of NNs and community notes.
Further replies might be best here:
Does Tesla need a PR department?
Last edited:
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
If you want to be taken seriously here I suggest you publish and apologise for what can be seen as FUD - namely your earliest quarterly estimates opposed to your latest.
Last edited:
It appears at present Tesla is building cars in China which are being taken to the dock for export to Europe, Chinese cars apparently having been previously cleared from the dock.
At present there seems to be more room on the dock to store cars.
So far there is no ship to take the cars, but if they are going to Europe, they will not be delivered this quarter.
There still seems to be plenty of room at the dock, but maybe the dock will fill up before a ship arrives.
The status of any Chinese cars in terms of delivered/undelivered is not clear.
I just assume Tesla knows what they are doing, and can handle the situation in an efficient manner.
if there is any substantial issue it will show up in Q4 production and deliveries and / or Q4 earnings.
I'm expecting record quarterly production and deliveries, and good earnings, do you disagree with that?
Sorry if this has been posted here. Looks like COVID is not done with China/Giga Shanghai yet!
Chinese industry runs out of workers and supplies as Covid wave spreads:
www.ft.com
Chinese industry runs out of workers and supplies as Covid wave spreads:
Covid outbreak throws Chinese factories and supply chains into chaos
‘Closed loop’ system to protect employees and production likely to be overwhelmed
www.ft.com
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
