Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

I am trying to figure out why with Giga Berlin online the deliveries don’t start at the beginning of the quarter. Is GB exporting the first 30 days of production now? Perhaps to other parts of the EU? Shouldn’t insurance registrations start ramping on the first day of the quarter?

If nothing else, suggests to me the quarterly push is still a thing, just maybe less pronounced.

The first month of this quarter, almost all Model Y’s were delivered to France and Germany, which are not in that graph (see Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats).
There was also a shipment to Taiwan that was probably produced early in the quarter.
It’s nice to see those real-time graphs, but it represents a rather limited portion of the EU market.

Edit: That graph used to be more useful a couple of years ago:
- Norway was a big part of the Tesla sales in Europe
- The Netherlands had some big end-of-year pushes driven by fiscal incentives.
Both countries were early adopters that represented a disproportionate part of the Europe market.

Today, the situation is very much different:
- Sweden has seen EV sales stall due to a sudden change in policy after a government change
- Norway has come in a steady-state situation, and has small portion of the Europe population
- The Netherlands has also gotten in a more steady-state situation with less EV incentives
- Spain doesn’t have a lot of EV sales yet.

Over half of the YTD sales in Europe is just Germany, France and the UK, and they are not in those graphs.

 

[Troy]

If you want to be taken seriously here I suggest you publish and apologise for what can be seen as FUD - namely your earliest quarterly estimates opposed to you latest.

My first estimate for Q4 was 400K. My latest estimate on Twitter is available here. It's 428K. If we end up at 428K, my earliest estimate would be off by 28K which would be 28/428= 6.5% off compared to the hypothetical 428K final number. A 6.5% error for the first estimate of the quarter is perfectly normal and it's what usually happens.


In Q3 2022, my first estimate 4 days into the quarter was too high by 6.2% compared to analyst consensus that was too high by 13.1%:

In Q2 2022, my earliest estimate 5 days into the quarter was too high by 7.2% compared to analyst consensus that was too high by 33.5%:

In Q1 2022, my first estimate 10 days into the quarter was too high by 7.4% compared to analyst consensus which was too low by 8.1%:

However, we don't know if Q4 will finish around 428K. It would be ironic for you to suggest that I should apologize for an initial 400K delivery estimate only for that to turn out to be a very good estimate. I'm not saying that will be the case. I hope Tesla far exceeds all my estimates. I would be very happy. This is a tough quarter but Tesla is putting up a good fight. The quarter is not over yet and they are still throwing punches.

 

[WarpedOne]

20% of the message is written with words (and pics).
80% of the message is written between the words (and pics).
One can only loose credibility once.
Troy, you are not seen as seeker of the truth any more, you showed yourself to be pusher of your own truth. You are over and out.

 

[ToTheStars]

20% of the message is written with words (and pics).
80% of the message is written between the words (and pics).
One can only loose credibility once.
Troy, you are not seen as seeker of the truth any more, you showed yourself to be pusher of your own truth. You are over and out.

The truth lies in the eye of the beholder.
I look at the message, take into account the images and ignore most of the words.
This way, his predictions look quite accurate. What do you think?

 

[Matias]

Well that destroys my Hypothesis of the MM's shaking down the little guys as the reason for the huge swings in Stock Price. Now it all make no sense at all....to me.

I hope this doesn’t get me banned; There is no conspiracy.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's when I started to be concerned.

Perhaps we should change the FUD acronym to FUCD

 

[aubreymcfato]

Re. PR department. I'm not against it. However, Elon is fighting the bigger right. In addition to free speech, 8 Bn people should be protected from FUD as consumers, activists or business owners (most of which don't have the luxury of a PR department). He expects that all 8 Bn people will eventually see that they cannot believe what they read about Tesla. After all, what entity is clearly doing the most good.

They will then extend this to other subjects. He owns a social media platform that will assist in this endeavour through use of NNs and community notes.

Further replies might be best here:
Does Tesla need a PR department?

I'm sorry, but this doesn't make sense.
Spreading FUD is "freedom of expression" by definition. What you call FUD others call "exposing the truth". People in the world have different values and different information and different political views and different cultures. They look at different data, they even interpret the same data in a different way.
Freedom of expression has always meant that this diversity is here to stay and we should preserve that in a democracy.

I've been involved with Wikipedia for a decade: go check "arab-israeli conflict" in different Wikipedias... they are all different, down to citation, quotes, bibliography. You will have a hundreds serious, documented books for both sides of the conflict. Maybe partisan, but documented nonetheless.

It's insanity to think that NNs can solve this problem alone: NNs are simply algorithms trained on "written data" as sources.
The sources are biased and skewed, by definition. And the sources are all over the place: they were all over the place in a paper world and they are more all over the place on a digital world.
Think MSM, which is a big source for NNs training. Even Twitter Community notes also look at MSM as sources.

How many Reuters FUD articles we have seen in the last years? Reuters is one of the sources of Community Notes, for example.

There's no way you can have both "freedom of expression" and a real "protection from FUD".
I like "community notes", as a tool, but it will create a lot of noise all by itself when the sources will be considered FUD by themselves.

 

[Matias]

I will work on a proposal, thanks to your suggestion. I think what they did before was not the way to do it. The blog didnt have the reach it would take to go viral, for example. Post brief msgs on TWTR commenting on fake news stories from major FUD sources like Reuters and Bloomberg and let the earning results decide who are telling the truth.

Either all the other companies with PR department are wrong or then Elon is.

 

[hobbes]

The point is simple. Dumbing down language and using memes and other colloquial forms is intended linguistically to enhance us-vs-them.

I´d argue it goes both ways: Dumbing down or making it unnecessarily complicated is both us-vs-them. If you want to be well understood (what should be the goal in discourse IMHO) use correct, but mainstream language.

 

[Troy]

I'm expecting record quarterly production and deliveries, and good earnings, do you disagree with that?

Yes, of course, Q4 will be new records across the board. Why would I disagree with that?

Here are the current records:

• Highest quarterly global production: 365,923 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly global deliveries: 343,830 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China production: 197,412 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China deliveries: 120,576 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China exports: 73,874 in Q1 2022

Tesla will beat all of these in Q4. However, we are trending clearly below the full-year targets. Before somebody says, Tesla's target is 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon, yes, that's what the shareholder letter says generally after each quarter but they do have specific targets for 2022 too.

Tesla's 2022 Targets:

• 50% growth in production (link to audio)
• Just under 50% growth in deliveries (link to audio)

We are trending below those targets. I tweeted about it here to explain what they would need to achieve in Q4 to reach the full-year targets:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

It is what it is. I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible, as quickly as possible. Here is what happened in Q4 2021. At the time, analyst consensus was very low. My estimates were high. However, Tesla was performing better than expected. This is the quarter when Fremont production jumped from 109K in Q3 to 127K in Q4 2021. Also, Giga Shanghai increased its production from 129K in Q3 to 179K in Q4 2021. I could see the increases in VIN data and I kept increasing my estimate. It was an exciting time.

I wish this quarter was similar. Analyst consensus is currently 430K deliveries. Tesla needs 468K to reach 47% growth this year. I wish I could tell you they are trending around that number. I would love to leave analysts behind and keep increasing my estimate. It's just not the right quarter.

 

[Unpilot]

And I miss the humorous posts, too!

Thanks.......I do try. And everyone knows dogs are funnier than cats.

 

[Queeg500]

We’re investors. This forum has been uniquely valuable because we discuss topics that help us understand, and influence our investment decisions. Demand, profit, competition, new products, innovation, etc. If we can get ahead of Wall Street with our predictions, we all win. I want us all to win.

Unfortunately, we also discuss topics that are irrelevant. We argue about our opinions on subjects that do not help us either way. I give an example - PR

Some are for, some are against. We discuss , repeatedly, for pages and pages. Maybe some people change their minds, most do not. But the fact remains that Tesla does not have a PR department. Should they / shouldn’t they is a futile argument. It doesn’t change anything. It doesn’t help anyone with their investment decisions. It is noise.

You can self-filter topics by asking “if I change my mind, will I change my investment/ portfolio / strategy ?”

I don’t believe this post will have any effect on the quality of future discussions, but it might help you to scroll past the noise.

 

[nativewolf]

Thanks.......I do try. And everyone knows dogs are funnier than cats.

Better in all regards.

 

[elasalle]

I follow Alex & Karen. Alex does excellent research in his Patreon subscription. Karen applies her sharp mind too. S/N ratio, please, folks!

Many Signals have left TMC , that’s why it’s more noisy how ever the noise is for free - and the hive mind here is better than Parton.
We in the Agave fields - things are raw and unprocessed

Btw, if there is recession it affects everyone. It’s not like only Tesla will grow

 

[vikings123]

Yes, of course, Q4 will be new records across the board. Why would I disagree with that?

Here are the current records:

• Highest quarterly global production: 365,923 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly global deliveries: 343,830 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China production: 197,412 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China deliveries: 120,576 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China exports: 73,874 in Q1 2022

Tesla will beat all of these in Q4. However, we are trending clearly below the full-year targets. Before somebody says, Tesla's target is 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon, yes, that's what the shareholder letter says generally after each quarter but they do have specific targets for 2022 too.

Tesla's 2022 Targets:

• 50% growth in production (link to audio)
• Just under 50% growth in deliveries (link to audio)

We are trending below those targets. I tweeted about it here to explain what they would need to achieve in Q4 to reach the full-year targets:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

It is what it is. I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible, as quickly as possible. Here is what happened in Q4 2021. At the time, analyst consensus was very low. My estimates were high. However, Tesla was performing better than expected. This is the quarter when Fremont production jumped from 109K in Q3 to 127K in Q4 2021. Also, Giga Shanghai increased its production from 129K in Q3 to 179K in Q4 2021. I could see the increases in VIN data and I kept increasing my estimate. It was an exciting time.

I wish this quarter was similar. Analyst consensus is currently 430K deliveries. Tesla needs 468K to reach 47% growth this year. I wish I could tell you they are trending around that number. I would love to leave analysts behind and keep increasing my estimate. It's just not the right quarter.

Going into the last 2 weeks of the quarter, what are some factors that would make you revise your estimate to the upside? China Weekly registration number is probably the biggest one?

I feel like this could be a quarter where we could see a wide range from 410K-450K.

 

[Mengy]

Going into the last 2 weeks of the quarter, what are some factors that would make you revise your estimate to the upside? China Weekly registration number is probably the biggest one?

I feel like this could be a quarter where we could see a wide range from 410K-450K.

And that's really the jist of all this. Q4 will be a record quarter, that much is obvious by now, BUT the issue of whether or not we'll hit 50% growth in production / deliveries for 2022 is the BIG question. There is a wide range of Q4 delivery possibilities.

I've been saying for some time now how I don't think we'll reach 50% for the year. In my opinion the gap from Q3 to Q4 numbers is just too large to ramp in one quarter's time, and the hit we took in Q2 for the shutdown was just too big a hit for the year.

Now, that doesn't mean it CAN'T happen, I'm just not expecting Tesla to pull that large a rabbit out of its hat. It's a massive jump to expect.

The silver lining is that production has ramped up nicely and we'll be entering 2023 with a nearly 2,000,000 per year production rate, and this will continue to ramp up in 2023 thanks to Berlin and Austin. SO, while I expect 2022 to be a less than 50% year, I also expect 2023 to be a greater than 50% year.

Annual average growth rate of 50% means we'll have some years over 50% and some under 50%. 2022 will just likely be an under year, and that's okay.

 

[jerry33]

Either all the other companies with PR department are wrong or then Elon is.

It's just not that simple. Companies with PR departments also do advertising with the mass media. The PR department is there to ensure the advertising budget is used to promote a good message (e.g. No good message, advertising dollars will be spent on a more friendly platform). If you have no advertising budget, then there is no point in a PR department.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yes, of course, Q4 will be new records across the board. Why would I disagree with that?

Here are the current records:

• Highest quarterly global production: 365,923 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly global deliveries: 343,830 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China production: 197,412 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China deliveries: 120,576 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China exports: 73,874 in Q1 2022

Tesla will beat all of these in Q4. However, we are trending clearly below the full-year targets. Before somebody says, Tesla's target is 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon, yes, that's what the shareholder letter says generally after each quarter but they do have specific targets for 2022 too.

Tesla's 2022 Targets:

• 50% growth in production (link to audio)
• Just under 50% growth in deliveries (link to audio)

We are trending below those targets. I tweeted about it here to explain what they would need to achieve in Q4 to reach the full-year targets:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

It is what it is. I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible, as quickly as possible. Here is what happened in Q4 2021. At the time, analyst consensus was very low. My estimates were high. However, Tesla was performing better than expected. This is the quarter when Fremont production jumped from 109K in Q3 to 127K in Q4 2021. Also, Giga Shanghai increased its production from 129K in Q3 to 179K in Q4 2021. I could see the increases in VIN data and I kept increasing my estimate. It was an exciting time.

I wish this quarter was similar. Analyst consensus is currently 430K deliveries. Tesla needs 468K to reach 47% growth this year. I wish I could tell you they are trending around that number. I would love to leave analysts behind and keep increasing my estimate. It's just not the right quarter.

It’s clear that your methods and predictions are not popular with a part of this community and you are being attacked for it. I appreciate that you come out to defend your methods and that you do so in a calm and respectful way, despite of the personal attacks by some.

 

[Matias]

. If you have no advertising budget, then there is no point in a PR department.

PR department also answers media's questions.

 

[Paracelsus]

Yes, of course, Q4 will be new records across the board. Why would I disagree with that?

Here are the current records:

• Highest quarterly global production: 365,923 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly global deliveries: 343,830 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China production: 197,412 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China deliveries: 120,576 in Q3 2022
• Highest quarterly China exports: 73,874 in Q1 2022

Tesla will beat all of these in Q4. However, we are trending clearly below the full-year targets. Before somebody says, Tesla's target is 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries over a multi-year horizon, yes, that's what the shareholder letter says generally after each quarter but they do have specific targets for 2022 too.

Tesla's 2022 Targets:

• 50% growth in production (link to audio)
• Just under 50% growth in deliveries (link to audio)

We are trending below those targets. I tweeted about it here to explain what they would need to achieve in Q4 to reach the full-year targets:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591963470060261376

It is what it is. I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible, as quickly as possible. Here is what happened in Q4 2021. At the time, analyst consensus was very low. My estimates were high. However, Tesla was performing better than expected. This is the quarter when Fremont production jumped from 109K in Q3 to 127K in Q4 2021. Also, Giga Shanghai increased its production from 129K in Q3 to 179K in Q4 2021. I could see the increases in VIN data and I kept increasing my estimate. It was an exciting time.

I wish this quarter was similar. Analyst consensus is currently 430K deliveries. Tesla needs 468K to reach 47% growth this year. I wish I could tell you they are trending around that number. I would love to leave analysts behind and keep increasing my estimate. It's just not the right quarter.

Isn't it a bit disingenuous to create a narrative that could easily appear intentionally critical of Tesla missing their 2022 goals that they stated at the end of 2021 without including any additional discussions of the very impactful 2022 shutdowns and subsequent production & delivery disruptions at their Shanghai plant due to forces completely beyond any control of the Tesla team? In 2021 Shanghai was producing 1/2 of Tesla's global deliveries IIRC. And if the narrative is intended to be a fair critique of Tesla's ability to achieve the goals they have publicly stated for 2022 then let's be honest - the 'disruptions' in 2022 stretched well beyond Shanghai for Tesla, and they had no ability to predict those impacts at the time their goals were stated.

While you are showing Tesla's 'record' production, deliveries, and quarters (Q1, Q3, Q4), your narrative (conveniently ?) excludes any discussion or extrapolations for the effects of the Covid shutdowns starting in March which hammered Q2 and created additional challenges for Tesla globally for much of 2022. A more fair and insightful discussion of Tesla's 2022 goals vs. actual IMO would exclude any time on the calendar for any forced shutdowns and reduced operation capacities at any location if it was beyond Tesla's control. You have been doing this long enough to be able to forecast that fairly accurately IMO if you so choose to. And if you did so, then Tesla would have likely achieved and surpassed their 2022 goals. What a headline that would make! But maybe that's not a headline that generated clicks.