Impossible. I was assured by many posters that Tesla was NOT battery constrained. Oh wait...maybe all the posters had their head in sand? Anyway I am glad to see energy waking up. They have been losing market share for years. Maybe they can get it back. It would be awesome to see price drops on mega packs.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Maybe real products that have a business case like energy and semi?
I think 1H23 might be as you describe, but I think by 2H23 the market will be looking forward to 2024 already. We'll see.
Pretty sure Musk talked about being battery constrained for like 2 years straight. Perhaps you are misunderstanding when some poster are saying that Tesla have put in plans years ago to navigate through a very real battery/raw material constraint environment for the next decade. Now we are seeing some of the fruits from all that planning.
Interest rates are what the Fed uses to modulate the economy to achieve their dual mandate: low stable price inflation and max employment. I've watched plenty of interviews where various members discuss forces driving the labour market including retirement, early retirement due to asset inflation during the pandemic QE, reduced movement of people and immigration while travel was shut down, etc.
The Fed's projections are in their December meeting PDF:
Note the Fed Funds rate still potentially being upwards of 4% in 2025 and how much it increased just from the last meeting, and this is if PCE/Core inflation drop down to the mid 2-3s next year and then <3% by 2024. Then we have one Fed member who figures the funds rate will be at 5.5%+ right out to 2025.
IMO interest rates will be higher for longer than most expect even now, and then we need to hope China doesn't actually make a move on Taiwan and other geopolitical catastrophes are avoided. But of course, Elon and many others believe that China moving on Taiwan is all but inevitable.
For 2023 we'll likely see production and deliveries increase every quarter, assuming we don't have any more city wide shutdowns in China, which I think its safe to say those are behind us now. Similarly due to Berlin and Austin ramping we'll probably see margins increase over time, or at the least hold steady if we see some price drops due to the recession.
At the start of the year we'll see construction begin on the new Mexico factory, and midway through 2023 the Cybertruck will go into production. It's very likely we'll also get news on the next vehicle, whichever one they choose next (economy compact or maybe the van).
The fundamentals should steadily improve for Tesla every quarter for 2023. EPS, revenues, possibly margins, etc. If the stock falls further or even holds steady then we will see PE compression like crazy, to like absurdly low levels. This is possible if the macros are bad enough, but I have a hunch we'll easily be well north of $200 for most of 2023. If we aren't then the PE will be stupid low.
All in my opinion of course, no crystal balls here.
Lathrop is 40 GWH/yr each pack is 3 MWH. So a little over 13,000 per year. So $31b in additional revenue.
Not sure if they've hit it yet, but Tesla is aiming for margins on these to equal vehicle margins, so roughly $10b additional profit trickling to the bottom line. If Lathrop operated at 100% capacity for all of 2023, it would be about a 30% increase in the bottom line for TSLA.
(VERY SWAG here corrections appreciated)
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I guess investor sentiment is worth something after all. Funny, Enphase is now my largest position and I couldn't name the CEO offhand. Let alone the last crazy thing he or she did/said.The real kicker is that ENHP gets a PE that's 4X TSLA's despite Tesla growing net income faster than ENPH for the past year
Yes ENPH's net income grew higher % wise than TSLA for the previous quarter but that's mostly because the net income in quarter the same time last year for ENPH was way below the net income for the following quarter
Lots of potential catalysts. Not clear when they will be realized. If Energy contributes significantly to Q4, it would be a big positive surprise. Likewise if they get very close to 50% production increase. Start of the Cybertruck production ramp will also be a big catalyst even before it is launched to customers.
How many of those things hit in Q1, whether there are big changes in ASPs, what the impact of IRA is....
I think we have a solid chance of the 4Q earnings being a blowout. Maybe 25% chance.
If we miss some key numbers in 4Q, then it's hard to say... might be even better buying opportunities in our future.
Yup, in the short term all of this PE comparison is all BS. Shareholders can sour on a company/CEO no matter the execution. Most investors not having a clue what any of these earnings metric even means. I am pretty sure many sold because they think Musk is causing demand destruction on twitter, or he is turning into a fascist, or they believe other people thinks he is a fascist.
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The (full capacity) run rate would be 1100/ month so it's possible (bit I think unlikely). Hard to say how long those suckers linger in the parking lot at Lathrop so I have no clue how close they are to capacity.Great.
So to make up for like 40K cars for 2022 (for 50% increase rate) , we would need like 800 of these beasts (just saying ...)
I don't have anything close to $31 billion in energy revenue for 2023 in my spreadsheet (I have about half that), but if they can get even close to that for the year then wowzers.
I agree it is possible, though I still err on the side of caution and do not think they will hit full megapack production. Even so, Tesla Energy is poised to post some great number and growth for 2023, and I don't think most WS analysts are including any of it in their estimates.
thesmokingman
Active Member
I believe they said the factory was going to start by making parts, then the smaller car. Based on other cars made in Mexico, I'm pretty sure that Tesla wants the quality to be up there, rather than what now comes out of Mexico.
Everything you said above was the case in 2022. Regarding the PE, it wouldn't be unprecedented for it to drop to 20.For 2023 we'll likely see production and deliveries increase every quarter, assuming we don't have any more city wide shutdowns in China, which I think its safe to say those are behind us now. Similarly due to Berlin and Austin ramping we'll probably see margins increase over time, or at the least hold steady if we see some price drops due to the recession.
At the start of the year we'll see construction begin on the new Mexico factory, and midway through 2023 the Cybertruck will go into production. It's very likely we'll also get news on the next vehicle, whichever one they choose next (economy compact or maybe the van).
The fundamentals should steadily improve for Tesla every quarter for 2023. EPS, revenues, possibly margins, etc. If the stock falls further or even holds steady then we will see PE compression like crazy, to like absurdly low levels. This is possible if the macros are bad enough, but I have a hunch we'll easily be well north of $200 for most of 2023. If we aren't then the PE will be stupid low.
All in my opinion of course, no crystal balls here.
I do hope you are right though. I'd much prefer to be rich sooner than later.
My hunch is Mexico will be for a new product. Not S, X, 3, nor Y. Not Semi, and not CT. Something we don't know about yet, possibly the economy compact, though the permit says the factory is for "cargo vehicles" so that sounds more like the Van to me.
Truth is we have no idea what Mexico will be building, but with Austin so close I can't see it making the same things Austin does....
Not a correction per se, but it seems to me there is a cost component to Tesla for each pack that hasn't a good counterpart in the vehicular manufacturing side of the company, and that is the site installation cost. That's probably a pure hit to the profit margin and it would be tricky to grasp what it is, as it should be somewhat different for every customer. This includes whatever cost-sharing of the installation occurs between vendor and purchaser.
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