Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Beltsbear]

Anecdotal data point - an old co-worker of mine decided to buy the Model 3 over the iPace and Leaf. One primary reason - charging network. She sees no point in buying a car from any other brand if they don't have a similar network to Tesla.

I would buy a Leaf today if it has the Tesla charging network. But only after the $15000 worth of incentives to me. Right now a 2019 40kWh leaf can be had for $16000 or so. The range would be fine for me if I could half fill it in 20 mins reliably. But it has neither charging speed or reliable charging availability.

 

[humbaba]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your last comment, but it absolutely can contribute to your tax refund. When you do your taxes, there are a bunch of big numbers like your total income, the total tax payable on that income, and the total amount you have already paid (via paycheck deductions, estimated tax payments, etc.). For most people those last two are supposed to mostly balance out, and you are owed a small amount of refund or owe the IRS a small amount. The tax credit on buying an EV is like you payed another extra amount during the year ($3750 if you buy now) to the IRS. If that shifts the balance between what you owed for the whole year and what you paid, you will get a refund for it.

That post was not well done. The person I responded to had their comment within their quote of mine so when I replied it wasn't there. The claim was that the tax break is a deduction, not a reduction to tax burden. Which is wrong. It absolutely is a reduction to tax burden.

As to increasing the refund... well, yes it can indirectly and I did choose my words carefully there. In fact, due to a snafu on my part I did have a tax burden last year. Not much, but I did have some. So the $7.5k tax break for buying my M3 last year wiped it out. So there was a net increase in my tax refund.

However, when you do the paperwork, if you owe $2k and qualify for the $7.5k tax break all it does is reduce your tax burden to $0k, it doesn't produce a refund of $5.5k. Otherwise my refund would have been a lot larger.

So, yes, I was simplifying. Taxes are complicated.

 

[KSilver2000]

Not sure the exact number but it’s somewhere around $50k taxable income to have at least a $7,500 tax burden. So I would say it qualifies a large portion of the population.

That is correct. Though it has gone up to about $55K for Single and $113K for MFJ. But this level of AGI is close 70th percentile across the U.S. This is why some argue the EV credit is geared towards the wealthy.

It will be awhile before a “large portion” of the population goes electric. For the average person in the US, current electric car prices don’t make economic sense. M3 is not a mass market car yet if it is priced similar to a BMW 3.

 

[Beltsbear]

How would the others pay for it? Tesla doesn't use a card, it uses the car to authorize. Now I suppose you could create an adapter with a card reader and an internet connection, but that would add cost to the adaptor and I don't suppose it would be that hard to hack since access to the hardware is usually the easiest way.

The best way is Tesla sells a serial numbered cable with encryption. You go to the web and setup an account. When that cable is used you get charged. If it is stolen you shut it off remotely. No time wasted at point of sale. No card reader to maintain.

 

[Thekiwi]

Model S and model X right hand drive has been out for a long time

I wouldn’t be surprised if Japan ends my up being a big market for the model 3.

I know it gets overused a lot on this forum, but it might end up following the iPhone experience. It was common wisdom amongst the press that Japan would never embrace the iPhone because of entrenched domestic players & national pride. Japan ended up becoming one of the most successful markets for iPhone with marketshare hovering around 50%.

Consumers in general will end up choosing the best product at their price point, and I would think the more expensive the product, the less likely “national pride” will factor into the equation.

 

[ZeApelido]

Ugh Niedermeyer. A doper article whining that Lex Fridman's Autopilot research is flimsy because, well, Tesla owners love Tesla too much and are biased!

Meanwhile, Tesla Death Watch man is totally objective, right...

 

[SW2Fiddler]

would grant each automaker a $7,000 tax credit for an additional 400,000 vehicles on top of the existing 200,000 vehicles eligible for $7,500 tax credits.

This wording makes my head hurt so so much. There were not just "200,000 cars" eligible for $7,500 in credits. There were also quite a few put into use in the US during Q3 and Q4 2018.

It's almost as bad as the 2 years leading up to the Tesla credit phaseout. I can't even, any more. At least this timeline has Falcons Heavy...

 

[Buddyroe]

Without reading every single page/post from the last 12 hours, are we to assume that the reason Tesla stopped delivering cars in the U.S. and started shipping overseas was because they got wind of the bill to extend the tax credit to an additional 400k vehicles in the U.S? That is the fist explanation that would make sense other than demand had dissipated for the models being offered. I'm really hoping that this is the reason as there would be no reason for Tesla to go through the logistical headache (actually a nightmare) of shipping cars overseas if they could have instead sold them in the U.S. (ie, demand was there for the cars).

 

[Nocturnal]

Shorts are delusional or outright liars.

Tesla Stock Is in Trouble

Recently, a friend mentioned that she got her $1,000 Model 3 deposit back after being on the waiting list for over a year and after having once been very excited in anticipation of getting the vehicle. She and her husband are both mechanical engineers, and friends of theirs who had already taken delivery of their Model 3s advised against acquiring the car.

The lease on their current electric vehicle finishes at the end of this year, and at the top of their list is the Mercedes‑Benz EQC. Unequivocally, the EQC looks mighty fine.

My friend says you are full of it.

Their major concern is safety. Not only the many big stories about fatalities that make headlines , but also issues with the amount of time required for repairs. Often repairs of Tesla vehicles are needed after battery-related fires that are unique to Tesla’s batteries. Byron Bloch, an independent auto safety expert, stated,

“When Teslas crash, heat built up in the cells of the cars’ massive lithium ion battery systems can result in fires that are particularly tough to put out.”

So not only do Teslas catch fire more than other cars, but even more than other EVs somehow! Amazing!

I just bought an AWD long-range model 3. I drove back from the Chicago Tesla store back to my home at East Lansing, Michigan. When I entered the highway near the supercharger at St. Joseph, MI, there was about 0.5 inch of snow. The car lost control twice (fishtailing, I guess) at this highway entrance and later one more time on I94 which was only lightly covered with snow. I drove my old 2006 corolla for ten years and only lost control on snow twice.

That's an outright lie or he found the dumbest post on the Tesla forums. The AWD 3 is an extremely capable car in the snow. The driver probably just had no idea how to deal with going from a 150hp car to one with double that.

 

[humbaba]

Without reading every single page/post from the last 12 hours, are we to assume that the reason Tesla stopped delivering cars in the U.S. and started shipping overseas was because they got wind of the bill to extend the tax credit to an additional 400k vehicles in the U.S? That is the fist explanation that would make sense other than demand had dissipated for the models being offered. I'm really hoping that this is the reason as there would be no reason for Tesla to go through the logistical headache (actually a nightmare) of shipping cars overseas if they could have instead sold them in the U.S. (ie, demand was there for the cars).

You sound confused: Tesla did not stop delivering cars in the US.

Or maybe not since you apparently can't comprehend why Tesla would ship cars overseas if they could sell them in the US.

Your account isn't new so I'm confused why you were limited to the last 12 hours of posts to understand this rather than the last three months where Tesla's actions have been thoroughly discussed and debated.

 

[Thekiwi]

They better get some clarity soon on the chances of passing both houses and Trump's willingness to sign. Until then, a lot of people considering making a purchase will pull back and wait for the chance to receive an additional $3,250.

This.

Who knows if McDonnell will even let this bill come up for a vote anytime soon (it would seem like a mid-2020 vote would be more likely as part of electioneering). Seems unlikely Trump would want this when the White House are actively trying to kill the EV tax credit currently, and also are on bad terms with GM (a large immediate beneficiary of the proposed bill) due to factory closings.

Meanwhile the bill will act as a discouragement for potential Tesla & GM EV buyers while it sits in limbo.

(Don’t get me wrong, this will be great for Tesla if it actually came up for a vote, passed the senate and House, and Trump didn’t Veto it.)

 

[Curt Renz]

...Meanwhile the bill will act as a discouragement for potential Tesla & GM EV buyers while it sits in limbo...

This year's American income tax filing deadline is Monday. If the bill becomes law, it would likely first apply to credits claimed on tax forms filed early next year for cars purchased this year. So the timing of a purchase this year should not affect whether a prospective buyer gets the proposed new tax credit. In other words, the law if passed would likely be retroactive to the beginning of 2019 for Tesla car buyers.

You may be right that some prospects will hesitate until the fate of the bill is known, especially if total cost is a consideration. But those are folks who would not have otherwise bought this year.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This.

Who knows if McDonnell will even let this bill come up for a vote anytime soon (it would seem like a mid-2020 vote would be more likely as part of electioneering). Seems unlikely Trump would want this when the White House are actively trying to kill the EV tax credit currently, and also are on bad terms with GM (a large immediate beneficiary of the proposed bill) due to factory closings.

Meanwhile the bill will act as a discouragement for potential Tesla & GM EV buyers while it sits in limbo.

(Don’t get me wrong, this will be great for Tesla if it actually came up for a vote, passed the senate and House, and Trump didn’t Veto it.)

The caveat there is that the expiration of the current $3750 isn't waiting for this bill to move through Congress. Anyone who waits may find themselves missing out on any credit if the bill ends up stalling. As they say "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

 

[jerry33]

The caveat there is that the expiration of the current $3750 isn't waiting for this bill to move through Congress. Anyone who waits may find themselves missing out on any credit if the bill ends up stalling. As they say "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush".

If you are in the market for a new car, just buy the car. If you get something extra, great. Bear in mind my estimate is that most people spend the $3750 or $7500 a couple of times before they receive the credit, and then they spend it again.

 

[Lessmog]

It was funny though how they compared Electrify America's yet to be built 150kW charging network with Tesla's existing SC network. The latter is already there in 1400 locations with 12000 chargers world wide. And that's not even discussing the SW update that will bring it on-pair with the VW chargers' 150kW performance.

Yet somehow it was worded like Audi has the charging infrastructure advantage....

Cherry on the cake: "Teslas need an adapter for Electrify America's network". No sugar! Tell me how Audis will charge at the Superchargers?

Osmosis?

At the recent car show I worked, the Electrify America network was touted as being the equivalent of Tesla's once it's built. From what I've seen, it will be more like Tesla's was in 2015 once completed. However, the perception is that it will be equivalent so it would be in the best interests of Tesla to have an adaptor out as soon as possible to counteract the FUD. Every place to charge a Tesla is another win for Tesla, and no doubt there will be some CCS locations more convenient than an SC location, particularly the ones located in Interstate rest stops. This was a frequent comment.

Usual excuses, I'm always late so this may have been already addressed here.
It certainly was at Tesla Club Sweden a few days ago:
CCS adaptern - Tesla Club Sweden
Obviously written in Swedish, but you can guess the contents and watch the pix (a weekend Tesla coffee meet near Stockholm Service Center; alas, Max' coffee machine was broken )

 

[generalenthu]

This is great work. Did you attempt any adjustment for the "loopholes" identified in the Teslarati article posted by Mars Emporer?
Tesla gives Fiat a wake up call: ‘fake’ electric cars can still manipulate EU emissions standards​

This article is all about 2025-30 time-frame. I think it's more important to stick to the existing guidelines. In the end, I think prices across the board in EU will go up ~2k Euro in 2020, and since all auto manufacturers are forced, (except maybe toyota), the incentive to innovate is somewhat limited.

 

[Buckminster]

Soooo..., this is the new argument. Instead of "Look out Tesla! The competition is coming for you!", its now:
"well, that wasn't the real competition. But if it was, look out!" and:
"We could have done better, but we don't want to kill our ICE car sales", and:
"The REAL competition IS coming, we just can't tell you when."
Its just interesting the ridiculous excuses people make up just so they can ignore the fact that Tesla is, and will continue to, dominate the EV competition. What a joke.
Also, just an FYI: Audi IS trying to sell the Etron turd. I got a private invitation to a one day event at my local Audi dealer (that is all the longer they were allowed to keep the demo unit). And, I have seen the Audi ad on TV at least twice a day lately for the Etron. This doesn't sound like a car they are trying to avoid selling.

e-tron gets 4.5 stars in uk premier auto mag. Competition is Jag then X. M3 not yet in UK and therefore non existent.
Audi E-tron 2019 UK review | Autocar
Good for Tesla that ev is coming out well.

 

[schonelucht]

They say that certain parts of certain filings, including some appendices to the 10Q, were not published. That's all they say.

They also list the dates for the reports to which they were originally attached. @brian45011 spelled it out before.

 

[MXWing]

Anecdotal data point - an old co-worker of mine decided to buy the Model 3 over the iPace and Leaf. One primary reason - charging network. She sees no point in buying a car from any other brand if they don't have a similar network to Tesla.

Good for your co worker and all but we are applauding her for not being an idiot and having common sense?

 

[Nocturnal]

Good for your co worker and all but we are applauding her for not being an idiot and having common sense?

Is this your first day in America/Planet Earth?

I could see the leaf being a great option as a 3rd car JUST to go to work and back if you had a shortish commute.